A parametric point process model is developed, with modeling based on the assumption that sequential observations often share latent phenomena, while also possessing idiosyncratic effects. An alternating optimization method is proposed to learn a "registered" point process that accounts for shared structure, as well as "warping" functions that characterize idiosyncratic aspects of each observed sequence. Under reasonable constraints, in each iteration we update the sample-specific warping functions by solving a set of constrained nonlinear programming problems in parallel, and update the model by maximum likelihood estimation. The justifiability, complexity and robustness of the proposed method are investigated in detail, and the influence of sequence stitching on the learning results is examined empirically. Experiments on both synthetic and real-world data demonstrate that the method yields explainable point process models, achieving encouraging results compared to state-of-the-art methods.

Recently, increased computational power and data availability, as well as algorithmic advances, have led machine learning techniques to impressive results in regression, classification, data-generation and reinforcement learning tasks. Despite these successes, the proximity to the physical limits of chip fabrication alongside the increasing size of datasets are motivating a growing number of researchers to explore the possibility of harnessing the power of quantum computation to speed-up classical machine learning algorithms. Here we review the literature in quantum machine learning and discuss perspectives for a mixed readership of classical machine learning and quantum computation experts. Particular emphasis will be placed on clarifying the limitations of quantum algorithms, how they compare with their best classical counterparts and why quantum resources are expected to provide advantages for learning problems. Learning in the presence of noise and certain computationally hard problems in machine learning are identified as promising directions for the field. Practical questions, like how to upload classical data into quantum form, will also be addressed.

Bayesian matrix factorization (BMF) is a powerful tool for producing low-rank representations of matrices and for predicting missing values and their confidence intervals. Scaling up the posterior inference for massive-scale matrices is challenging and requires distributing both data and computation over many workers, making communication the main computational bottleneck. Embarrassingly parallel inference would remove the communication needed, by using completely independent computations on different data subsets, but suffers from the inherent unidentifiability of BMF solutions. We introduce a hierarchical decomposition of the joint posterior distribution, which couples the subset inferences, allowing for embarrassingly parallel computations in a sequence of at most three stages. Using an efficient approximate implementation, we show empirically on both real and simulated data that our distributed approach is able to achieve a speed-up of almost an order of magnitude, with a negligible effect on predictive accuracy.

Imagine a situation where a group of adversaries is preparing an attack on the United States or U.S. interests. An intelligence analyst has observed some signals, but the situation is rapidly changing. The analyst faces the decision to alert a principal decision maker that an attack is imminent, or to wait until more is known about the situation. This warning decision is based on the analyst's observation and evaluation of signals, independent or correlated, and on her updating of the prior probabilities of possible scenarios and their outcomes. The warning decision also depends on the analyst's assessment of the crisis' dynamics and perception of the preferences of the principal decision maker, as well as the lead time needed for an appropriate response. This article presents a model to support this analyst's dynamic warning decision. As with most problems involving warning, the key is to manage the tradeoffs between false positives and false negatives given the probabilities and the consequences of intelligence failures of both types. The model is illustrated by revisiting the case of the attack on Pearl Harbor in December 1941. It shows that the radio silence of the Japanese fleet carried considerable information (Sir Arthur Conan Doyle's "dog in the night" problem), which was misinterpreted at the time. Even though the probabilities of different attacks were relatively low, their consequences were such that the Bayesian dynamic reasoning described here may have provided valuable information to key decision makers.

In real-world applications, it is conceivable that only positive and unlabeled (PU) data are available for training a classifier. For instance, in land-cover image classification, images of urban regions can be easily labeled, while images of non-urban regions are difficult to annotate due to high diversity of non-urban regions containing, e.g., forest, seas, grasses, and soil (Li et al., 2011). To cope with such situations, PU classification has been actively studied (Letouzey et al., 2000; Elkan and Noto, 2008; du Plessis et al., 2015), and the state-of-the-art method allows us to systematically train deep neural networks only from PU data (Kiryo et al., 2017). However, existing PU classification methods typically require an estimate of the class-prior probability, and their performance is sensitive to the quality of class-prior estimation (Kiryo et al., 2017). Although various class-prior estimation methods from PU data have been proposed so far (du Plessis and Sugiyama, 2014; Ramaswamy et al., 2016; Jain et al., 2016; du Plessis et al., 2017; Northcutt et al., 2017), accurate estimation of the class-prior is still highly challenging particularly for high-dimensional data.

Interpretable machine learning models have received increasing interest in recent years, especially in domains where humans are involved in the decision-making process. However, the possible loss of the task performance for gaining interpretability is often inevitable. This performance downgrade puts practitioners in a dilemma of choosing between a top-performing black-box model with no explanations and an interpretable model with unsatisfying task performance. In this work, we propose a novel framework for building a Hybrid Decision Model that integrates an interpretable model with any black-box model to introduce explanations in the decision making process while preserving or possibly improving the predictive accuracy. We propose a novel metric, explainability, to measure the percentage of data that are sent to the interpretable model for decision. We also design a principled objective function that considers predictive accuracy, model interpretability, and data explainability. Under this framework, we develop Collaborative Black-box and RUle Set Hybrid (CoBRUSH) model that combines logic rules and any black-box model into a joint decision model. An input instance is first sent to the rules for decision. If a rule is satisfied, a decision will be directly generated. Otherwise, the black-box model is activated to decide on the instance. To train a hybrid model, we design an efficient search algorithm that exploits theoretically grounded strategies to reduce computation. Experiments show that CoBRUSH models are able to achieve same or better accuracy than their black-box collaborator working alone while gaining explainability. They also have smaller model complexity than interpretable baselines.

We propose a novel class of time-varying nonparanormal graphical models, which allows us to model high dimensional heavy-tailed systems and the evolution of their latent network structures. Under this model, we develop statistical tests for presence of edges both locally at a fixed index value and globally over a range of values. The tests are developed for a high-dimensional regime, are robust to model selection mistakes and do not require commonly assumed minimum signal strength. The testing procedures are based on a high dimensional, debiasing-free moment estimator, which uses a novel kernel smoothed Kendall's tau correlation matrix as an input statistic. The estimator consistently estimates the latent inverse Pearson correlation matrix uniformly in both the index variable and kernel bandwidth. Its rate of convergence is shown to be minimax optimal. Our method is supported by thorough numerical simulations and an application to a neural imaging data set.

A key phase in the bridge design process is the selection of the structural system. Due to budget and time constraints, engineers typically rely on engineering judgment and prior experience when selecting a structural system, often considering a limited range of design alternatives. The objective of this study was to explore the suitability of supervised machine learning as a preliminary design aid that provides guidance to engineers with regards to the statistically optimal bridge type to choose, ultimately improving the likelihood of optimized design, design standardization, and reduced maintenance costs. In order to devise this supervised learning system, data for over 600,000 bridges from the National Bridge Inventory database were analyzed. Key attributes for determining the bridge structure type were identified through three feature selection techniques. Potentially useful attributes like seismic intensity and historic data on the cost of materials (steel and concrete) were then added from the US Geological Survey (USGS) database and Engineering News Record. Decision tree, Bayes network and Support Vector Machines were used for predicting the bridge design type. Due to state-to-state variations in material availability, material costs, and design codes, supervised learning models based on the complete data set did not yield favorable results. Supervised learning models were then trained and tested using 10-fold cross validation on data for each state. Inclusion of seismic data improved the model performance noticeably. The data was then resampled to reduce the bias of the models towards more common design types, and the supervised learning models thus constructed showed further improvements in performance. The average recall and precision for the state models was 88.6% and 88.0% using Decision Trees, 84.0% and 83.7% using Bayesian Networks, and 80.8% and 75.6% using SVM.

Learn how to to scale up a machine learning algorithm. The cloud and machine learning: two phrases with a lot of hype that few people understand. We're intimately familiar with both here at Leverege, so hopefully this article will shed some light on the two topics. Before we share what we've learned using Google Cloud ML Engine, we need to do a quick refresher on how machine learning is done in production. So how does Google Cloud ML fit into all of this?

The real-time crash likelihood prediction has been an important research topic. Various classifiers, such as support vector machine (SVM) and tree-based boosting algorithms, have been proposed in traffic safety studies. However, few research focuses on the missing data imputation in real-time crash likelihood prediction, although missing values are commonly observed due to breakdown of sensors or external interference. Besides, classifying imbalanced data is also a difficult problem in real-time crash likelihood prediction, since it is hard to distinguish crash-prone cases from non-crash cases which compose the majority of the observed samples. In this paper, principal component analysis (PCA) based approaches, including LS-PCA, PPCA, and VBPCA, are employed for imputing missing values, while two kinds of solutions are developed to solve the problem in imbalanced data. The results show that PPCA and VBPCA not only outperform LS-PCA and other imputation methods (including mean imputation and k-means clustering imputation), in terms of the root mean square error (RMSE), but also help the classifiers achieve better predictive performance. The two solutions, i.e., cost-sensitive learning and synthetic minority oversampling technique (SMOTE), help improve the sensitivity by adjusting the classifiers to Corresponding author Email address: chenxiqun@zju.edu.cn Keywords: Real-time crash likelihood prediction, PCA-based missing data imputation, cost-sensitive learning, SMOTE, support vector machine, AdaBoost 1. Introduction Prediction of traffic crash has been a major research topic in transportation safety studies. Crashes, especially on urban expressways, can trigger heavy traffic congestions, impose huge external costs, and reduce the level of service of transportation infrastructures. Therefore, the accurate and reliable prediction of crash risks is critical to the success of proactive safety management strategies on urban expressways. There have been fruitful studies in the domain of the real-time crash likelihood estimation (Abdel-Aty and Pemmanaboina, 2006; Abdel-Aty et al., 2007, 2008; Ahmed and Abdel-Aty, 2012). It has been reported that crash occurrence was affected by four major factors: real-time traffic state, drivers' behavior, environment factors, and road geometry (Ahmed and Abdel-Aty, 2013b).