The fragility of modern machine learning models has drawn a considerable amount of attention from both academia and the public. While immense interests were in either crafting adversarial attacks as a way to measure the robustness of neural networks or devising worst-case analytical robustness verification with guarantees, few methods could enjoy both scalability and robustness guarantees at the same time. As an alternative to these attempts, randomized smoothing adopts a different prediction rule that enables statistical robustness arguments and can scale to large networks. However, in this paper, we point out for the first time the side effects of current randomized smoothing workflows. Specifically, we articulate and prove two major points: 1) the decision boundaries shrink with the adoption of randomized smoothing prediction rule; 2) noise augmentation does not necessarily resolve the shrinking issue and can even create additional issues.

In Bayesian Deep Learning, distributions over the output of classification neural networks are approximated by first constructing a Gaussian distribution over the weights, then sampling from it to receive a distribution over the categorical output distribution. This is costly. We reconsider old work to construct a Dirichlet approximation of this output distribution, which yields an analytic map between Gaussian distributions in logit space and Dirichlet distributions (the conjugate prior to the categorical) in the output space. We argue that the resulting Dirichlet distribution has theoretical and practical advantages, in particular more efficient computation of the uncertainty estimate, scaling to large datasets and networks like ImageNet and DenseNet. We demonstrate the use of this Dirichlet approximation by using it to construct a lightweight uncertainty-aware output ranking for the ImageNet setup.

We propose a novel actor-critic, model-free reinforcement learning algorithm which employs a Bayesian method of parameter space exploration to solve environments. A Gaussian process is used to learn the expected return of a policy given the policy's parameters. The system is trained by updating the parameters using gradient descent on a new surrogate loss function consisting of the Proximal Policy Optimization 'Clipped' loss function and a bonus term representing the expected improvement acquisition function given by the Gaussian process. This new method is shown to be comparable to and at times empirically outperform current algorithms on environments that simulate robotic locomotion using the MuJoCo physics engine.

Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) are trained to optimize an entire distribution over their weights instead of a single set, having significant advantages in terms of, e.g., interpretability, multi-task learning, and calibration. Because of the intractability of the resulting optimization problem, most BNNs are either sampled through Monte Carlo methods, or trained by minimizing a suitable Evidence Lower BOund (ELBO) on a variational approximation. In this paper, we propose a variant of the latter, wherein we replace the Kullback-Leibler divergence in the ELBO term with a Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD) estimator, inspired by recent work in variational inference. After motivating our proposal based on the properties of the MMD term, we proceed to show a number of empirical advantages of the proposed formulation over the state-of-the-art. In particular, our BNNs achieve higher accuracy on multiple benchmarks, including several image classification tasks. In addition, they are more robust to the selection of a prior over the weights, and they are better calibrated. As a second contribution, we provide a new formulation for estimating the uncertainty on a given prediction, showing it performs in a more robust fashion against adversarial attacks and the injection of noise over their inputs, compared to more classical criteria such as the differential entropy.

Symmetric property estimation is a fundamental and well studied problem in machine learning and statistics. In this problem, we are given n i.i.d samples from an unknown distribution 1 p and asked to estimate f(p), where f is a symmetric property (i.e. it does not depend on the labels of the symbols). Over the past few years, the computational and sample complexities for estimating many symmetric properties have been extensively studied. Estimators with optimal sample complexities have been obtained for several properties including entropy [VV11b, WY16a, JVHW15], distance to uniformity [VV11a, JHW16], and support [VV11b, WY15]. All aforementioned estimators were property specific and therefore, a natural question is to design a universal estimator. In [ADOS16], the authors showed that the distribution that maximizes the profile likelihood, i.e. the likelihood of the multiset of frequencies of elements in the sample, referred to as profile maximum likelihood (PML) distribution, can be used as a universal plugin estimator.

In many complex, real-world situations, problem solving and decision making require effective reasoning about causation and uncertainty. However, human reasoning in these cases is prone to confusion and error. Bayesian networks (BNs) are an artificial intelligence technology that models uncertain situations, supporting probabilistic and causal reasoning and decision making. However, to date, BN methodologies and software require significant upfront training, do not provide much guidance on the model building process, and do not support collaboratively building BNs. BARD (Bayesian ARgumentation via Delphi) is both a methodology and an expert system that utilises (1) BNs as the underlying structured representations for better argument analysis, (2) a multi-user web-based software platform and Delphi-style social processes to assist with collaboration, and (3) short, high-quality e-courses on demand, a highly structured process to guide BN construction, and a variety of helpful tools to assist in building and reasoning with BNs, including an automated explanation tool to assist effective report writing. The result is an end-to-end online platform, with associated online training, for groups without prior BN expertise to understand and analyse a problem, build a model of its underlying probabilistic causal structure, validate and reason with the causal model, and use it to produce a written analytic report. Initial experimental results demonstrate that BARD aids in problem solving, reasoning and collaboration.

In this article, we are going to discuss we difference between Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning, and Deep Learning. Furthermore, we will address the question of why Deep Learning as a young emerging field is far superior to traditional Machine Learning. Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning, and Deep Learning are popular buzzwords that everyone seems to use nowadays. But still, there is a big misconception among many people about the meaning of these terms. In the worst case, one may think that these terms describe the same thing -- which is simply false.

Machine learning paradigm is ruled by a simple theorem known as "No Free Lunch" theorem. According to this, there is no algorithm in ML which will work best for all the problems. To state, one can not conclude that SVM is a better algorithm than decision trees or linear regression. Selection of an algorithm is dependent on the problem at hand and other factors like the size and structure of the dataset. In this blog, we are going to look into the top machine learning algorithms. Regression is a method used to predict numerical numbers.

Event occurrence is not only subject to the environmental changes, but is also facilitated by the events that have occurred in a system. Here, we develop a method for estimating such extrinsic and intrinsic factors from a single series of event-occurrence times. The analysis is performed using a model that combines the inhomogeneous Poisson process and the Hawkes process, which represent exogenous fluctuations and endogenous chain-reaction mechanisms, respectively. The model is fit to a given dataset by minimizing the free energy, for which statistical physics and a path-integral method are utilized. Because the process of event occurrence is stochastic, parameter estimation is inevitably accompanied by errors, and it can ultimately occur that exogenous and endogenous factors cannot be captured even with the best estimator. We obtained four regimes categorized according to whether respective factors are detected. By applying the analytical method to real time series of debate in a social-networking service, we have observed that the estimated exogenous and endogenous factors are close to the first comments and the follow-up comments, respectively. This method is general and applicable to a variety of data, and we have provided an application program, by which anyone can analyze any series of event times.

GANs for time series data often use sliding windows or self-attention to capture underlying time dependencies. While these techniques have no clear theoretical justification, they are successful in significantly reducing the discriminator size, speeding up the training process, and improving the generation quality. In this paper, we provide both theoretical foundations and a practical framework of GANs for high-dimensional distributions with conditional independence structure captured by a Bayesian network, such as time series data. We prove that several probability divergences satisfy subadditivity properties with respect to the neighborhoods of the Bayes-net graph, providing an upper bound on the distance between two Bayes-nets by the sum of (local) distances between their marginals on every neighborhood of the graph. This leads to our proposed Subadditive GAN framework that uses a set of simple discriminators on the neighborhoods of the Bayes-net, rather than a giant discriminator on the entire network, providing significant statistical and computational benefits. We show that several probability distances including Jensen-Shannon, Total Variation, and Wasserstein, have subadditivity or generalized subadditivity. Moreover, we prove that Integral Probability Metrics (IPMs), which encompass commonly-used loss functions in GANs, also enjoy a notion of subadditivity under some mild conditions. Furthermore, we prove that nearly all f-divergences satisfy local subadditivity in which subadditivity holds when the distributions are relatively close. Our experiments on synthetic as well as real-world datasets verify the proposed theory and the benefits of subadditive GANs.