While deep neural networks are highly performant and successful in a wide range of real-world problems, estimating their predictive uncertainty remains a challenging task. To address this challenge, we propose and implement a loss function for regression uncertainty estimation based on the Bayesian Validation Metric (BVM) framework while using ensemble learning. A series of experiments on in-distribution data show that the proposed method is competitive with existing state-of-the-art methods. In addition, experiments on out-of-distribution data show that the proposed method is robust to statistical change and exhibits superior predictive capability.

We consider the problem of offline reinforcement learning with model-based control, whose goal is to learn a dynamics model from the experience replay and obtain a pessimism-oriented agent under the learned model. Current model-based constraint includes explicit uncertainty penalty and implicit conservative regularization that pushes Q-values of out-of-distribution state-action pairs down and the in-distribution up. While the uncertainty estimation, on which the former relies on, can be loosely calibrated for complex dynamics, the latter performs slightly better. To extend the basic idea of regularization without uncertainty quantification, we propose distributionally robust offline model-based policy optimization (DROMO), which leverages the ideas in distributionally robust optimization to penalize a broader range of out-of-distribution state-action pairs beyond the standard empirical out-of-distribution Q-value minimization. We theoretically show that our method optimizes a lower bound on the ground-truth policy evaluation, and it can be incorporated into any existing policy gradient algorithms. We also analyze the theoretical properties of DROMO's linear and non-linear instantiations.

Recent breakthroughs in AI have shown the remarkable power of deep learning and deep reinforcement learning. These developments, however, have been tied to specific tasks, and progress in out-of-distribution generalization has been limited. While it is assumed that these limitations can be overcome by incorporating suitable inductive biases, the notion of inductive biases itself is often left vague and does not provide meaningful guidance. In the paper, I articulate a different learning approach where representations do not emerge from biases in a neural architecture but are learned over a given target language with a known semantics. The basic ideas are implicit in mainstream AI where representations have been encoded in languages ranging from fragments of first-order logic to probabilistic structural causal models. The challenge is to learn from data, the representations that have traditionally been crafted by hand. Generalization is then a result of the semantics of the language. The goals of the paper and talk are to make these ideas explicit, to place them in a broader context where the design of the target language is crucial, and to illustrate them in the context of learning to act and plan. For this, after a general discussion, I consider learning representations of actions, general policies, and general decompositions. In these cases, learning is formulated as a combinatorial optimization problem but nothing prevents the use deep learning techniques instead. Indeed, learning representations over languages with a known semantics provides an account of what is to be learned, while learning representations with neural nets provides a complementary account of how representations can be learned. The challenge and the opportunity is to bring the two together.

There's no denying that the area of machine learning or artificial intelligence has grown in prominence in recent years. Machine learning is very effective for making predictions or calculating suggestions based on vast quantities of data, which is the trendiest topic in the tech sector right now. In this article, we will discuss the top 10 ML algorithms for newbies. Any other algorithm in computer programming can be connected to a machine learning method. An ML algorithm is a data-driven process for developing a production-ready ML model.

This paper introduces supervised contrastive active learning (SCAL) by leveraging the contrastive loss for active learning in a supervised setting. We propose efficient query strategies in active learning to select unbiased and informative data samples of diverse feature representations. We demonstrate our proposed method reduces sampling bias, achieves state-of-the-art accuracy and model calibration in an active learning setup with the query computation 11x faster than CoreSet and 26x faster than Bayesian active learning by disagreement. Our method yields well-calibrated models even with imbalanced datasets. We also evaluate robustness to dataset shift and out-of-distribution in active learning setup and demonstrate our proposed SCAL method outperforms high performing compute-intensive methods by a bigger margin (average 8.9% higher AUROC for out-of-distribution detection and average 7.2% lower ECE under dataset shift).

This paper introduces V-SysId, a novel method that enables simultaneous keypoint discovery, 3D system identification, and extrinsic camera calibration from an unlabeled video taken from a static camera, using only the family of equations of motion of the object of interest as weak supervision. V-SysId takes keypoint trajectory proposals and alternates between maximum likelihood parameter estimation and extrinsic camera calibration, before applying a suitable selection criterion to identify the track of interest. This is then used to train a keypoint tracking model using supervised learning. Results on a range of settings (robotics, physics, physiology) highlight the utility of this approach.

In causal studies, systems of variables are described by causal models [18, 22], which are composed of two elements: (i) the graphical representation of relationships between variables in a model, encoded in a directed acyclic graph, and (ii) the mathematical description of conditional probability distribution of each variable given its causal parents. When a causal model involves hidden (i.e., unobserved) variables, any characterization of the model verifiable by observations should only include observed variables. Therefore, one of the objectives of causal inference is to eliminate all hidden variables from inequalities and equalities that describe the model. In principle, this can be achieved using the Tarski-Seidenberg quantifier elimination method [12]. However, its complexity is such that only models with few variables can be solved using this technique, hence the reason for the many attempts to simplify the problem.

Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) have been impactful on many problems and applications but suffer from unstable training. The Wasserstein GAN (WGAN) leverages the Wasserstein distance to avoid the caveats in the minmax two-player training of GANs but has other defects such as mode collapse and lack of metric to detect the convergence. We introduce a novel inferential Wasserstein GAN (iWGAN) model, which is a principled framework to fuse auto-encoders and WGANs. The iWGAN model jointly learns an encoder network and a generator network motivated by the iterative primal dual optimization process. The encoder network maps the observed samples to the latent space and the generator network maps the samples from the latent space to the data space. We establish the generalization error bound of the iWGAN to theoretically justify its performance. We further provide a rigorous probabilistic interpretation of our model under the framework of maximum likelihood estimation. The iWGAN, with a clear stopping criteria, has many advantages over other autoencoder GANs. The empirical experiments show that the iWGAN greatly mitigates the symptom of mode collapse, speeds up the convergence, and is able to provide a measurement of quality check for each individual sample. We illustrate the ability of the iWGAN by obtaining competitive and stable performances for benchmark datasets.

We study the matrix completion problem that leverages hierarchical similarity graphs as side information in the context of recommender systems. Under a hierarchical stochastic block model that well respects practically-relevant social graphs and a low-rank rating matrix model, we characterize the exact information-theoretic limit on the number of observed matrix entries (i.e., optimal sample complexity) by proving sharp upper and lower bounds on the sample complexity. In the achievability proof, we demonstrate that probability of error of the maximum likelihood estimator vanishes for sufficiently large number of users and items, if all sufficient conditions are satisfied. On the other hand, the converse (impossibility) proof is based on the genie-aided maximum likelihood estimator. Under each necessary condition, we present examples of a genie-aided estimator to prove that the probability of error does not vanish for sufficiently large number of users and items. One important consequence of this result is that exploiting the hierarchical structure of social graphs yields a substantial gain in sample complexity relative to the one that simply identifies different groups without resorting to the relational structure across them. More specifically, we analyze the optimal sample complexity and identify different regimes whose characteristics rely on quality metrics of side information of the hierarchical similarity graph. Finally, we present simulation results to corroborate our theoretical findings and show that the characterized information-theoretic limit can be asymptotically achieved. N recent years, personalized recommender systems have emerged in an extensive range of Web applications to predict the preferences of its users and provide them with new and relevant items based on the scarce data about the users and/or items [2]. There are two major paradigms of recommender systems: (i) content-based filtering systems; (ii) collaborative filtering systems. Content-based filtering approach exploits a profile of users' preferences and/or properties of the items to carry out the recommendation task.

We propose a framework for the assessment of uncertainty quantification in deep regression. The framework is based on regression problems where the regression function is a linear combination of nonlinear functions. Basically, any level of complexity can be realized through the choice of the nonlinear functions and the dimensionality of their domain. Results of an uncertainty quantification for deep regression are compared against those obtained by a statistical reference method. The reference method utilizes knowledge of the underlying nonlinear functions and is based on a Bayesian linear regression using a reference prior. Reliability of uncertainty quantification is assessed in terms of coverage probabilities, and accuracy through the size of calculated uncertainties. We illustrate the proposed framework by applying it to current approaches for uncertainty quantification in deep regression. The flexibility, together with the availability of a reference solution, makes the framework suitable for defining benchmark sets for uncertainty quantification.