Radar Automated Target Recognition (RATR) for Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) involves transmitting Electromagnetic Waves (EMWs) and performing target type recognition on the received radar echo, crucial for defense and aerospace applications. Previous studies highlighted the advantages of multistatic radar configurations over monostatic ones in RATR. However, fusion methods in multistatic radar configurations often suboptimally combine classification vectors from individual radars probabilistically. To address this, we propose a fully Bayesian RATR framework employing Optimal Bayesian Fusion (OBF) to aggregate classification probability vectors from multiple radars. OBF, based on expected 0-1 loss, updates a Recursive Bayesian Classification (RBC) posterior distribution for target UAV type, conditioned on historical observations across multiple time steps. We evaluate the approach using simulated random walk trajectories for seven drones, correlating target aspect angles to Radar Cross Section (RCS) measurements in an anechoic chamber. Comparing against single radar Automated Target Recognition (ATR) systems and suboptimal fusion methods, our empirical results demonstrate that the OBF method integrated with RBC significantly enhances classification accuracy compared to other fusion methods and single radar configurations.

The lack of an efficient preamble detection algorithm remains a challenge for solving preamble collision problems in intelligent massive random access (RA) in practical communication scenarios. To solve this problem, we present a novel early preamble detection scheme based on a maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) model at the first step of the grant-based RA procedure. A novel blind normalized Stein variational gradient descent (SVGD)-based detector is proposed to obtain an approximate solution to the MLE model. First, by exploring the relationship between the Hadamard transform and wavelet transform, a new modified Hadamard transform (MHT) is developed to separate high-frequencies from important components using the second-order derivative filter. Next, to eliminate noise and mitigate the vanishing gradients problem in the SVGD-based detectors, the block MHT layer is designed based on the MHT, scaling layer, soft-thresholding layer, inverse MHT and sparsity penalty. Then, the blind normalized SVGD algorithm is derived to perform preamble detection without prior knowledge of noise power and the number of active devices. The experimental results show the proposed block MHT layer outperforms other transform-based methods in terms of computation costs and denoising performance. Furthermore, with the assistance of the block MHT layer, the proposed blind normalized SVGD algorithm achieves a higher preamble detection accuracy and throughput than other state-of-the-art detection methods.

We study the effectiveness of data-balancing for mitigating biases in contrastive language-image pretraining (CLIP), identifying areas of strength and limitation. First, we reaffirm prior conclusions that CLIP models can inadvertently absorb societal stereotypes. To counter this, we present a novel algorithm, called Multi-Modal Moment Matching (M4), designed to reduce both representation and association biases (i.e. in first- and second-order statistics) in multimodal data. We use M4 to conduct an in-depth analysis taking into account various factors, such as the model, representation, and data size. Our study also explores the dynamic nature of how CLIP learns and unlearns biases. In particular, we find that fine-tuning is effective in countering representation biases, though its impact diminishes for association biases. Also, data balancing has a mixed impact on quality: it tends to improve classification but can hurt retrieval. Interestingly, data and architectural improvements seem to mitigate the negative impact of data balancing on performance; e.g. applying M4 to SigLIP-B/16 with data quality filters improves COCO image-to-text retrieval @5 from 86% (without data balancing) to 87% and ImageNet 0-shot classification from 77% to 77.5%! Finally, we conclude with recommendations for improving the efficacy of data balancing in multimodal systems.

The current state-of-the-art in artificial intelligence is impressive, especially in terms of mastery of language, but not so much in terms of mathematical reasoning. What could be missing? Can we learn something useful about that gap from how the brains of mathematicians go about their craft? This essay builds on the idea that current deep learning mostly succeeds at system 1 abilities -- which correspond to our intuition and habitual behaviors -- but still lacks something important regarding system 2 abilities -- which include reasoning and robust uncertainty estimation. It takes an information-theoretical posture to ask questions about what constitutes an interesting mathematical statement, which could guide future work in crafting an AI mathematician. The focus is not on proving a given theorem but on discovering new and interesting conjectures. The central hypothesis is that a desirable body of theorems better summarizes the set of all provable statements, for example by having a small description length while at the same time being close (in terms of number of derivation steps) to many provable statements.

Abrupt maneuvers by surrounding vehicles (SVs) can typically lead to safety concerns and affect the task efficiency of the ego vehicle (EV), especially with model uncertainties stemming from environmental disturbances. This paper presents a real-time fail-operational controller that ensures the asymptotic convergence of an uncertain EV to a safe state, while preserving task efficiency in dynamic environments. An incremental Bayesian learning approach is developed to facilitate online learning and inference of changing environmental disturbances. Leveraging disturbance quantification and constraint transformation, we develop a stochastic fail-operational barrier based on the control barrier function (CBF). With this development, the uncertain EV is able to converge asymptotically from an unsafe state to a defined safe state with probabilistic stability. Subsequently, the stochastic fail-operational barrier is integrated into an efficient fail-operational controller based on quadratic programming (QP). This controller is tailored for the EV operating under control constraints in the presence of environmental disturbances, with both safety and efficiency objectives taken into consideration. We validate the proposed framework in connected cruise control (CCC) tasks, where SVs perform aggressive driving maneuvers. The simulation results demonstrate that our method empowers the EV to swiftly return to a safe state while upholding task efficiency in real time, even under time-varying environmental disturbances.

Secondly, we use the learned This paper presents a novel self-supervised path-planning method world model as an internal generative model enriched with active for UAV-aided networks. First, we employed an optimizer to solve states to simulate the environment and plan actions that minimize training examples offline and then used the resulting solutions as the agent's surprise during online decision-making. This approach demonstrations from which the UAV can learn the world model to enables the UAV to navigate its surroundings with a reference model understand the environment and implicitly discover the optimizer's representing the goal, choosing actions that minimize unexpected or policy. UAV equipped with the world model can make real-time unusual observations (surprise) measured by how much they deviate autonomous decisions and engage in online planning using active from the expected goal. The main contributions of this paper are as inference. During planning, UAV can score different policies based follows: It expands on previous research [11] by exploring online on the expected surprise, allowing it to choose among alternative planning, a prospective form of cognition.

Real-world data often exhibits sequential dependence, across diverse domains such as human behavior, medicine, finance, and climate modeling. Probabilistic methods capture the inherent uncertainty associated with prediction in these contexts, with autoregressive models being especially prominent. This dissertation focuses on using autoregressive models to answer complex probabilistic queries that go beyond single-step prediction, such as the timing of future events or the likelihood of a specific event occurring before another. In particular, we develop a broad class of novel and efficient approximation techniques for marginalization in sequential models that are model-agnostic. These techniques rely solely on access to and sampling from next-step conditional distributions of a pre-trained autoregressive model, including both traditional parametric models as well as more recent neural autoregressive models. Specific approaches are presented for discrete sequential models, for marked temporal point processes, and for stochastic jump processes, each tailored to a well-defined class of informative, long-range probabilistic queries.

Reliable confidence estimation is a challenging yet fundamental requirement in many risk-sensitive applications. However, modern deep neural networks are often overconfident for their incorrect predictions, i.e., misclassified samples from known classes, and out-of-distribution (OOD) samples from unknown classes. In recent years, many confidence calibration and OOD detection methods have been developed. In this paper, we find a general, widely existing but actually-neglected phenomenon that most confidence estimation methods are harmful for detecting misclassification errors. We investigate this problem and reveal that popular calibration and OOD detection methods often lead to worse confidence separation between correctly classified and misclassified examples, making it difficult to decide whether to trust a prediction or not. Finally, we propose to enlarge the confidence gap by finding flat minima, which yields state-of-the-art failure prediction performance under various settings including balanced, long-tailed, and covariate-shift classification scenarios. Our study not only provides a strong baseline for reliable confidence estimation but also acts as a bridge between understanding calibration, OOD detection, and failure prediction. The code is available at \url{https://github.com/Impression2805/FMFP}.

The generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) is a popular statistical approach for handling correlated data, and is used extensively in applications areas where big data is common, including biomedical data settings. The focus of this paper is scalable statistical inference for the GLMM, where we define statistical inference as: (i) estimation of population parameters, and (ii) evaluation of scientific hypotheses in the presence of uncertainty. Artificial intelligence (AI) learning algorithms excel at scalable statistical estimation, but rarely include uncertainty quantification. In contrast, Bayesian inference provides full statistical inference, since uncertainty quantification results automatically from the posterior distribution. Unfortunately, Bayesian inference algorithms, including Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), become computationally intractable in big data settings. In this paper, we introduce a statistical inference algorithm at the intersection of AI and Bayesian inference, that leverages the scalability of modern AI algorithms with guaranteed uncertainty quantification that accompanies Bayesian inference. Our algorithm is an extension of stochastic gradient MCMC with novel contributions that address the treatment of correlated data (i.e., intractable marginal likelihood) and proper posterior variance estimation. Through theoretical and empirical results we establish our algorithm's statistical inference properties, and apply the method in a large electronic health records database.

This work presents novel extensions for combining two frameworks for quantifying both aleatoric (i.e., irreducible) and epistemic (i.e., reducible) sources of uncertainties in the modeling of engineered systems. The data-consistent (DC) framework poses an inverse problem and solution for quantifying aleatoric uncertainties in terms of pullback and push-forward measures for a given Quantity of Interest (QoI) map. Unfortunately, a pre-specified QoI map is not always available a priori to the collection of data associated with system outputs. The data themselves are often polluted with measurement errors (i.e., epistemic uncertainties), which complicates the process of specifying a useful QoI. The Learning Uncertain Quantities (LUQ) framework defines a formal three-step machine-learning enabled process for transforming noisy datasets into samples of a learned QoI map to enable DC-based inversion. We develop a robust filtering step in LUQ that can learn the most useful quantitative information present in spatio-temporal datasets. The learned QoI map transforms simulated and observed datasets into distributions to perform DC-based inversion. We also develop a DC-based inversion scheme that iterates over time as new spatial datasets are obtained and utilizes quantitative diagnostics to identify both the quality and impact of inversion at each iteration. Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space theory is leveraged to mathematically analyze the learned QoI map and develop a quantitative sufficiency test for evaluating the filtered data. An illustrative example is utilized throughout while the final two examples involve the manufacturing of shells of revolution to demonstrate various aspects of the presented frameworks.