Instrumental variables (IVs) are a popular and powerful tool for estimating causal effects in the presence of unobserved confounding. However, classical approaches rely on strong assumptions such as the $\textit{exclusion criterion}$, which states that instrumental effects must be entirely mediated by treatments. This assumption often fails in practice. When IV methods are improperly applied to data that do not meet the exclusion criterion, estimated causal effects may be badly biased. In this work, we propose a novel solution that provides $\textit{partial}$ identification in linear systems given a set of $\textit{leaky instruments}$, which are allowed to violate the exclusion criterion to some limited degree. We derive a convex optimization objective that provides provably sharp bounds on the average treatment effect under some common forms of information leakage, and implement inference procedures to quantify the uncertainty of resulting estimates. We demonstrate our method in a set of experiments with simulated data, where it performs favorably against the state of the art. An accompanying $\texttt{R}$ package, $\texttt{leakyIV}$, is available from $\texttt{CRAN}$.

Predictive modeling of criminal recidivism, or whether people will re-offend in the future, has a long and contentious history. Modern causal inference methods allow us to move beyond prediction and target the "treatment effect" of a specific intervention on an outcome in an observational dataset. In this paper, we look specifically at the effect of incarceration (prison time) on recidivism, using a well-known dataset from North Carolina. Two popular causal methods for addressing confounding bias are explained and demonstrated: directed acyclic graph (DAG) adjustment and double machine learning (DML), including a sensitivity analysis for unobserved confounders. We find that incarceration has a detrimental effect on recidivism, i.e., longer prison sentences make it more likely that individuals will re-offend after release, although this conclusion should not be generalized beyond the scope of our data. We hope that this case study can inform future applications of causal inference to criminal justice analysis.

The high dimensional nature of genomics data complicates feature selection, in particular in low sample size studies - not uncommon in clinical prediction settings. It is widely recognized that complementary data on the features, `co-data', may improve results. Examples are prior feature groups or p-values from a related study. Such co-data are ubiquitous in genomics settings due to the availability of public repositories. Yet, the uptake of learning methods that structurally use such co-data is limited. We review guided adaptive shrinkage methods: a class of regression-based learners that use co-data to adapt the shrinkage parameters, crucial for the performance of those learners. We discuss technical aspects, but also the applicability in terms of types of co-data that can be handled. This class of methods is contrasted with several others. In particular, group-adaptive shrinkage is compared with the better-known sparse group-lasso by evaluating feature selection. Finally, we demonstrate the versatility of the guided shrinkage methodology by showing how to `do-it-yourself': we integrate implementations of a co-data learner and the spike-and-slab prior for the purpose of improving feature selection in genetics studies.

Many aspects of human learning have been proposed as a process of constructing mental programs: from acquiring symbolic number representations to intuitive theories about the world. In parallel, there is a long-tradition of using information processing to model human cognition through Rate Distortion Theory (RDT). Yet, it is still poorly understood how to apply RDT when mental representations take the form of programs. In this work, we adapt RDT by proposing a three way trade-off among rate (description length), distortion (error), and computational costs (search budget). We use simulations on a melody task to study the implications of this trade-off, and show that constructing a shared program library across tasks provides global benefits. However, this comes at the cost of sensitivity to curricula, which is also characteristic of human learners. Finally, we use methods from partial information decomposition to generate training curricula that induce more effective libraries and better generalization.

We propose a post-processing algorithm for fair classification that mitigates model bias under a unified family of group fairness criteria covering statistical parity, equal opportunity, and equalized odds, applicable to multi-class problems and both attribute-aware and attribute-blind settings. It achieves fairness by re-calibrating the output score of the given base model with a "fairness cost" -- a linear combination of the (predicted) group memberships. Our algorithm is based on a representation result showing that the optimal fair classifier can be expressed as a linear post-processing of the loss function and the group predictor, derived via using these as sufficient statistics to reformulate the fair classification problem as a linear program. The parameters of the post-processor are estimated by solving the empirical LP. Experiments on benchmark datasets show the efficiency and effectiveness of our algorithm at reducing disparity compared to existing algorithms, including in-processing, especially on larger problems.

Inspired by the 'Bias Considerations in Bilingual Natural Language Processing' report by Statistics Canada, this study delves into potential biases in multilingual sentiment analysis between English and French. Given a 50-50 dataset of French and English, we aim to determine if there exists a language bias and explore how the incorporation of more diverse datasets in the future might affect the equity of multilingual Natural Language Processing (NLP) systems. By employing Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Naive Bayes models on three balanced datasets, we reveal potential biases in multilingual sentiment classification. Utilizing Fairlearn, a tool for assessing bias in machine learning models, our findings indicate nuanced outcomes. With French data outperforming English across accuracy, recall, and F1 score metrics in both models, hinting at a language bias favoring French. However, Fairlearn's metrics suggest that the SVM approaches equitable levels with a demographic parity ratio of 0.963, 0.989, and 0.985 for the three separate datasets, indicating near-equitable treatment across languages. In contrast, Naive Bayes demonstrates greater disparities, evidenced by a demographic parity ratio of 0.813, 0.908, and 0.961. These findings reveal the importance of developing equitable multilingual NLP systems, particularly as we anticipate the inclusion of more datasets in various languages in the future.

Differential privacy (DP) has been accepted as a rigorous criterion for measuring the privacy protection offered by random mechanisms used to obtain statistics or, as we will study here, synthetic datasets from confidential data. Methods to generate such datasets are increasingly numerous, using varied tools including Bayesian models, deep neural networks and copulas. However, little is still known about how to properly perform statistical inference with these differentially private synthetic (DIPS) datasets. The challenge is for the analyses to take into account the variability from the synthetic data generation in addition to the usual sampling variability. A similar challenge also occurs when missing data is imputed before analysis, and statisticians have developed appropriate inference procedures for this case, which we tend extended to the case of synthetic datasets for privacy. In this work, we study the applicability of these procedures, based on combining rules, to the analysis of DIPS datasets. Our empirical experiments show that the proposed combining rules may offer accurate inference in certain contexts, but not in all cases.

In this study, we aim to identify the most effective machine learning model for accurately classifying Myers-Briggs Type Indicator (MBTI) types from Reddit posts and a Kaggle data set. We apply multi-label classification using the Binary Relevance method. We use Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) approach to highlight the transparency and understandability of the process and result. To achieve this, we experiment with glass-box learning models, i.e. models designed for simplicity, transparency, and interpretability. We selected k-Nearest Neighbour, Multinomial Naive Bayes, and Logistic Regression for the glass-box models. We show that Multinomial Naive Bayes and k-Nearest Neighbour perform better if classes with Observer (S) traits are excluded, whereas Logistic Regression obtains its best results when all classes have > 550 entries.

Bayesian few-shot classification has been a focal point in the field of few-shot learning. This paper seamlessly integrates mirror descent-based variational inference into Gaussian process-based few-shot classification, addressing the challenge of non-conjugate inference. By leveraging non-Euclidean geometry, mirror descent achieves accelerated convergence by providing the steepest descent direction along the corresponding manifold. It also exhibits the parameterization invariance property concerning the variational distribution. Experimental results demonstrate competitive classification accuracy, improved uncertainty quantification, and faster convergence compared to baseline models. Additionally, we investigate the impact of hyperparameters and components. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/keanson/MD-BSFC.

A fundamental problem associated with the task of network reconstruction from dynamical or behavioral data consists in determining the most appropriate model complexity in a manner that prevents overfitting, and produces an inferred network with a statistically justifiable number of edges. The status quo in this context is based on $L_{1}$ regularization combined with cross-validation. However, besides its high computational cost, this commonplace approach unnecessarily ties the promotion of sparsity with weight "shrinkage". This combination forces a trade-off between the bias introduced by shrinkage and the network sparsity, which often results in substantial overfitting even after cross-validation. In this work, we propose an alternative nonparametric regularization scheme based on hierarchical Bayesian inference and weight quantization, which does not rely on weight shrinkage to promote sparsity. Our approach follows the minimum description length (MDL) principle, and uncovers the weight distribution that allows for the most compression of the data, thus avoiding overfitting without requiring cross-validation. The latter property renders our approach substantially faster to employ, as it requires a single fit to the complete data. As a result, we have a principled and efficient inference scheme that can be used with a large variety of generative models, without requiring the number of edges to be known in advance. We also demonstrate that our scheme yields systematically increased accuracy in the reconstruction of both artificial and empirical networks. We highlight the use of our method with the reconstruction of interaction networks between microbial communities from large-scale abundance samples involving in the order of $10^{4}$ to $10^{5}$ species, and demonstrate how the inferred model can be used to predict the outcome of interventions in the system.