Semiparametric Bayesian networks (SPBNs) integrate parametric and non-parametric probabilistic models, offering flexibility in learning complex data distributions from samples. In particular, kernel density estimators (KDEs) are employed for the non-parametric component. Under the assumption of data normality, the normal rule is used to learn the bandwidth matrix for the KDEs in SPBNs. This matrix is the key hyperparameter that controls the trade-off between bias and variance. However, real-world data often deviates from normality, potentially leading to suboptimal density estimation and reduced predictive performance. This paper first establishes the theoretical framework for the application of state-of-the-art bandwidth selectors and subsequently evaluates their impact on SPBN performance. We explore the approaches of cross-validation and plug-in selectors, assessing their effectiveness in enhancing the learning capability and applicability of SPBNs. To support this investigation, we have extended the open-source package PyBNesian for SPBNs with the additional bandwidth selection techniques and conducted extensive experimental analyses. Our results demonstrate that the proposed bandwidth selectors leverage increasing information more effectively than the normal rule, which, despite its robustness, stagnates with more data. In particular, unbiased cross-validation generally outperforms the normal rule, highlighting its advantage in high sample size scenarios.

Modern industrial systems are often subject to multiple failure modes, and their conditions are monitored by multiple sensors, generating multiple time-series signals. Additionally, time-to-failure data are commonly available. Accurately predicting a system's remaining useful life (RUL) requires effectively leveraging multi-sensor time-series data alongside multi-mode failure event data. In most existing models, failure modes and RUL prediction are performed independently, ignoring the inherent relationship between these two tasks. Some models integrate multiple failure modes and event prediction using black-box machine learning approaches, which lack statistical rigor and cannot characterize the inherent uncertainty in the model and data. This paper introduces a unified approach to jointly model the multi-sensor time-series data and failure time concerning multiple failure modes. This proposed model integrate a Cox proportional hazards model, a Convolved Multi-output Gaussian Process, and multinomial failure mode distributions in a hierarchical Bayesian framework with corresponding priors, enabling accurate prediction with robust uncertainty quantification. Posterior distributions are effectively obtained by Variational Bayes, and prediction is performed with Monte Carlo sampling. The advantages of the proposed model is validated through extensive numerical and case studies with jet-engine dataset.

-- Trust prediction is a key issue in human-robot collaboration, especially in construction scenarios where maintaining appropriate trust calibration is critical for safety and efficiency. This paper introduces the Performance-guided Physiological signal-based Trust Prediction (PPTP), a novel framework designed to improve trust assessment. We designed a human-robot construction scenario with three difficulty levels to induce different trust states. Our approach integrates synchronized multimodal physiological signals (ECG, GSR, and EMG) with collaboration performance evaluation to predict human trust levels. Individual physiological signals are processed using collaboration performance information as guiding cues, leveraging the standardized nature of collaboration performance to compensate for individual variations in physiological responses. Extensive experiments demonstrate the efficacy of our cross-modality fusion method in significantly improving trust classification performance. Our model achieves over 81% accuracy in three-level trust classification, outperforming the best baseline method by 6.7%, and notably reaches 74.3% accuracy in high-resolution seven-level classification, which is a first in trust prediction research. Ablation experiments further validate the superiority of physiological signal processing guided by collaboration performance assessment.

Synchronization errors, such as insertions and deletions, present a fundamental challenge in DNA-based data storage systems, arising from both synthesis and sequencing noise. These channels are often modeled as insertion-deletion-substitution (IDS) channels, for which designing maximum-likelihood decoders is computationally expensive. In this work, we propose a data-driven approach based on neural polar decoders (NPDs) to design low-complexity decoders for channels with synchronization errors. The proposed architecture enables decoding over IDS channels with reduced complexity $O(AN log N )$, where $A$ is a tunable parameter independent of the channel. NPDs require only sample access to the channel and can be trained without an explicit channel model. Additionally, NPDs provide mutual information (MI) estimates that can be used to optimize input distributions and code design. We demonstrate the effectiveness of NPDs on both synthetic deletion and IDS channels. For deletion channels, we show that NPDs achieve near-optimal decoding performance and accurate MI estimation, with significantly lower complexity than trellis-based decoders. We also provide numerical estimates of the channel capacity for the deletion channel. We extend our evaluation to realistic DNA storage settings, including channels with multiple noisy reads and real-world Nanopore sequencing data. Our results show that NPDs match or surpass the performance of existing methods while using significantly fewer parameters than the state-of-the-art. These findings highlight the promise of NPDs for robust and efficient decoding in DNA data storage systems.

Causal discovery from observational data typically assumes full access to data and availability of domain experts. In practice, data often arrive in batches, and expert knowledge is scarce. Language Models (LMs) offer a surrogate but come with their own issues-hallucinations, inconsistencies, and bias. We present BLANCE (Bayesian LM-Augmented Causal Estimation)-a hybrid Bayesian framework that bridges these gaps by adaptively integrating sequential batch data with LM-derived noisy, expert knowledge while accounting for both data-induced and LM-induced biases. Our proposed representation shift from Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) to Partial Ancestral Graph (PAG) accommodates ambiguities within a coherent Bayesian framework, allowing grounding the global LM knowledge in local observational data. To guide LM interaction, we use a sequential optimization scheme that adaptively queries the most informative edges. Across varied datasets, BLANCE outperforms prior work in structural accuracy and extends to Bayesian parameter estimation, showing robustness to LM noise.

The crisis of epistemic overload in modern scientific inquiry has exposed a critical deficiency in how truth claims are assessed, validated, and integrated across time and domain. The exponential growth in peer-reviewed publications, accompanied by inconsistent replication rates, entrenched citation biases, and the sociological entanglements of scientific authorship, has rendered traditional mechanisms of epistemic filtering increasingly obsolete. Simultaneously, artificial intelligence--while having demonstrated capacity in data correlation and language generation--remains fundamentally ill-equipped to perform rigorous epistemic reasoning. This gap is not merely technical but conceptual: current AI systems lack any principled framework for evaluating the truth-promoting value of claims, discerning authoritative sources, or understanding belief as a structured probabilistic relation between agents, claims, and contexts. The present work introduces a formal architecture--Bayesian Epistemology with Weighted Authority (BEW A)--which systematically encodes the logic of belief formation, update, and decay, guided by the core axioms of Bayesian rationality, tempered by structural mechanisms for authority weighting, replication scoring, and temporal reassessment.

In this paper, we study the binary classification problem on $[0,1]^d$ under the Tsybakov noise condition (with exponent $s \in [0,\infty]$) and the compositional assumption. This assumption requires the conditional class probability function of the data distribution to be the composition of $q+1$ vector-valued multivariate functions, where each component function is either a maximum value function or a Hölder-$β$ smooth function that depends only on $d_*$ of its input variables. Notably, $d_*$ can be significantly smaller than the input dimension $d$. We prove that, under these conditions, the optimal convergence rate for the excess 0-1 risk of classifiers is $$ \left( \frac{1}{n} \right)^{\frac{β\cdot(1\wedgeβ)^q}{{\frac{d_*}{s+1}+(1+\frac{1}{s+1})\cdotβ\cdot(1\wedgeβ)^q}}}\;\;\;, $$ which is independent of the input dimension $d$. Additionally, we demonstrate that ReLU deep neural networks (DNNs) trained with hinge loss can achieve this optimal convergence rate up to a logarithmic factor. This result provides theoretical justification for the excellent performance of ReLU DNNs in practical classification tasks, particularly in high-dimensional settings. The technique used to establish these results extends the oracle inequality presented in our previous work. The generalized approach is of independent interest.

Real-time identification and quantification of greenhouse-gas emissions under transient atmospheric conditions is a critical challenge in environmental monitoring. We introduce a spatio-temporal inversion framework that embeds a deep-learning surrogate of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) within a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm to perform Bayesian inference of both emission rate and source location in dynamic flow fields. By substituting costly numerical solvers with a multilayer perceptron trained on high-fidelity CFD outputs, our surrogate captures spatial heterogeneity and temporal evolution of gas dispersion, while delivering near-real-time predictions. Validation on the Chilbolton methane release dataset demonstrates comparable accuracy to full CFD solvers and Gaussian plume models, yet achieves orders-of-magnitude faster runtimes. Further experiments under simulated obstructed-flow scenarios confirm robustness in complex environments. This work reconciles physical fidelity with computational feasibility, offering a scalable solution for industrial emissions monitoring and other time-sensitive spatio-temporal inversion tasks in environmental and scientific modeling.

Humans interpret the world around them in terms of cause and effect and communicate their understanding of the world to each other in causal terms. These causal aspects of human cognition are thought to underlie humans' ability to generalize and learn efficiently in new domains, an area where current machine learning systems are weak. Building human-like causal competency into machine learning systems may facilitate the construction of effective and interpretable AI. Indeed, the machine learning community has been importing ideas on causality formalized by the Structural Causal Model (SCM) framework, which provides a rigorous formal language for many aspects of causality and has led to significant advances. However, the SCM framework fails to capture some salient aspects of human causal cognition and has likewise not yet led to advances in machine learning in certain critical areas where humans excel. We contend that the problem of causality in the ``human niche'' -- for a social, autonomous, and goal-driven agent sensing and acting in the world in which humans live -- is quite different from the kind of causality captured by SCMs. For example, everyday objects come in similar types that have similar causal properties, and so humans readily generalize knowledge of one type of object (cups) to another related type (bowls) by drawing causal analogies between objects with similar properties, but such analogies are at best awkward to express in SCMs. We explore how such causal capabilities are adaptive in, and motivated by, the human niche. By better appreciating properties of human causal cognition and, crucially, how those properties are adaptive in the niche in which humans live, we hope that future work at the intersection of machine learning and causality will leverage more human-like inductive biases to create more capable, controllable, and interpretable systems.

Despite promising developments in Explainable Artificial Intelligence, the practical value of XAI methods remains under-explored and insufficiently validated in real-world settings. Robust and context-aware evaluation is essential, not only to produce understandable explanations but also to ensure their trustworthiness and usability for intended users, but tends to be overlooked because of no clear guidelines on how to design an evaluation with users. This study addresses this gap with two main goals: (1) to develop a framework of well-defined, atomic properties that characterise the user experience of XAI in healthcare; and (2) to provide clear, context-sensitive guidelines for defining evaluation strategies based on system characteristics. We conducted a systematic review of 82 user studies, sourced from five databases, all situated within healthcare settings and focused on evaluating AI-generated explanations. The analysis was guided by a predefined coding scheme informed by an existing evaluation framework, complemented by inductive codes developed iteratively. The review yields three key contributions: (1) a synthesis of current evaluation practices, highlighting a growing focus on human-centred approaches in healthcare XAI; (2) insights into the interrelations among explanation properties; and (3) an updated framework and a set of actionable guidelines to support interdisciplinary teams in designing and implementing effective evaluation strategies for XAI systems tailored to specific application contexts.