Functional data, i.e., smooth random functions observed over a continuous domain, are increasingly available in areas such as biomedical research, health informatics, and epidemiology. However, effective statistical analysis for functional data is often hindered by challenges such as privacy constraints, sparse and irregular sampling, infinite dimensionality, and non-Gaussian structures. To address these challenges, we introduce a novel framework named Smooth Flow Matching (SFM), tailored for generative modeling of functional data to enable statistical analysis without exposing sensitive real data. Built upon flow-matching ideas, SFM constructs a semiparametric copula flow to generate infinite-dimensional functional data, free from Gaussianity or low-rank assumptions. It is computationally efficient, handles irregular observations, and guarantees the smoothness of the generated functions, offering a practical and flexible solution in scenarios where existing deep generative methods are not applicable. Through extensive simulation studies, we demonstrate the advantages of SFM in terms of both synthetic data quality and computational efficiency. We then apply SFM to generate clinical trajectory data from the MIMIC-IV patient electronic health records (EHR) longitudinal database. Our analysis showcases the ability of SFM to produce high-quality surrogate data for downstream statistical tasks, highlighting its potential to boost the utility of EHR data for clinical applications.

Max-linear Bayesian networks (MLBNs) are a relatively recent class of structural equation models which arise when the random variables involved have heavy-tailed distributions. Unlike most directed graphical models, MLBNs are typically not faithful to d-separation and thus classical causal discovery algorithms such as the PC algorithm or greedy equivalence search can not be used to accurately recover the true graph structure. In this paper, we begin the study of constraint-based discovery algorithms for MLBNs given an oracle for testing conditional independence in the true, unknown graph. We show that if the oracle is given by the $\ast$-separation criteria in the true graph, then the PC algorithm remains consistent despite the presence of additional CI statements implied by $\ast$-separation. We also introduce a new causal discovery algorithm named "PCstar" which assumes faithfulness to $C^\ast$-separation and is able to orient additional edges which cannot be oriented with only d- or $\ast$-separation.

In this paper, we investigate the problem of sequential decision-making for Sharpe ratio (SR) maximization in a stochastic bandit setting. We focus on the Thompson Sampling (TS) algorithm, a Bayesian approach celebrated for its empirical performance and exploration efficiency, under the assumption of Gaussian rewards with unknown parameters. Unlike conventional bandit objectives focusing on maximizing cumulative reward, Sharpe ratio optimization instead introduces an inherent tradeoff between achieving high returns and controlling risk, demanding careful exploration of both mean and variance. Our theoretical contributions include a novel regret decomposition specifically designed for the Sharpe ratio, highlighting the role of information acquisition about the reward distribution in driving learning efficiency. Then, we establish fundamental performance limits for the proposed algorithm \texttt{SRTS} in terms of an upper bound on regret. We also derive the matching lower bound and show the order-optimality. Our results show that Thompson Sampling achieves logarithmic regret over time, with distribution-dependent factors capturing the difficulty of distinguishing arms based on risk-adjusted performance. Empirical simulations show that our algorithm significantly outperforms existing algorithms.

This figure compares (a) a spaghetti plot of ensemble members, (b) a circular tube, and (c) our uncertainty tube for visualizing model uncertainty. Previous methods face challenges such as visual clutter (a) or the assumption of symmetric uncertainty (a, b), but our uncertainty tube (c), constructed using superellipses, provides a more accurate visualization of asymmetric uncertainty. Its superelliptical shape distinctly improves the visualization of the uncertainty orientation and its evolution along trajectories, as highlighted in the boxes. The visualization is further enhanced with a color palette that uses gray for low uncertainty, blue for large asymmetric uncertainty, and yellow for large symmetric uncertainty. Predicting particle trajectories with neural networks (NNs) has substantially enhanced many scientific and engineering domains. However, effectively quantifying and visualizing the inherent uncertainty in predictions remains challenging. Without an understanding of the uncertainty, the reliability of NN models in applications where trustworthiness is paramount is significantly compromised. This paper introduces the uncertainty tube, a novel, computationally efficient visualization method designed to represent this uncertainty in NN-derived particle paths. By integrating well-established uncertainty quantification techniques, such as Deep Ensembles, Monte Carlo Dropout (MC Dropout), and Stochastic Weight Averaging-Gaussian (SW AG), we demonstrate the practical utility of the uncertainty tube, showcasing its application on both synthetic and simulation datasets. Understanding and analyzing flow field data is fundamental for numerous scientific and engineering disciplines, including fluid dynamics, atmospheric science, and material processing. Traditional computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations are often computationally intensive, a limitation that has led researchers to explore more efficient paradigms. This exploration has given rise to neural networks (NNs) as a transformative tool in this domain, driven by their capacity to overcome these computational bottlenecks. Notably, recent work, such as Han et al. [26, 27], leverages NNs to learn Lagrangian-based flow maps, enabling efficient and robust particle tracing in time-varying fields. These data-driven models demonstrate remarkable accuracy and speed, making them increasingly indispensable for accelerating discovery and design cycles in fluid dynamics. Despite these advancements, a significant challenge remains in providing a comprehensive understanding of the confidence associated with NN predictions in flow fields.

Learning temporal interaction networks(TIN) is previously regarded as a coarse-grained multi-sequence prediction problem, ignoring the network topology structure influence. This paper addresses this limitation and a Deep Graph Neural Point Process(DGNPP) model for TIN is proposed. DGNPP consists of two key modules: the Node Aggregation Layer and the Self Attentive Layer. The Node Aggregation Layer captures topological structures to generate static representation for users and items, while the Self Attentive Layer dynamically updates embeddings over time. By incorporating both dynamic and static embeddings into the event intensity function and optimizing the model via maximum likelihood estimation, DGNPP predicts events and occurrence time effectively. Experimental evaluations on three public datasets demonstrate that DGNPP achieves superior performance in event prediction and time prediction tasks with high efficiency, significantly outperforming baseline models and effectively mitigating the limitations of prior approaches.

Understanding the complex and stochastic nature of Gene Regulatory Networks (GRNs) remains a central challenge in systems biology. Existing modeling paradigms often struggle to effectively capture the intricate, multi-factor regulatory logic and to rigorously manage the dual uncertainties of network structure and kinetic parameters. In response, this work introduces the Probabilistic Categorical GRN(PC-GRN) framework. It is a novel theoretical approach founded on the synergistic integration of three core methodologies. Firstly, category theory provides a formal language for the modularity and composition of regulatory pathways. Secondly, Bayesian Typed Petri Nets (BTPNs) serve as an interpretable,mechanistic substrate for modeling stochastic cellular processes, with kinetic parameters themselves represented as probability distributions. The central innovation of PC-GRN is its end-to-end generative Bayesian inference engine, which learns a full posterior distribution over BTPN models (P (G, Θ|D)) directly from data. This is achieved by the novel interplay of a GFlowNet, which learns a policy to sample network topologies, and a HyperNetwork, which performs amortized inference to predict their corresponding parameter distributions. The resulting framework provides a mathematically rigorous, biologically interpretable, and uncertainty-aware representation of GRNs, advancing predictive modeling and systems-level analysis.

Uncertainty estimation is pivotal in machine learning, especially for classification tasks, as it improves the robustness and reliability of models. We introduce a novel `Epistemic Wrapping' methodology aimed at improving uncertainty estimation in classification. Our approach uses Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) as a baseline and transforms their outputs into belief function posteriors, effectively capturing epistemic uncertainty and offering an efficient and general methodology for uncertainty quantification. Comprehensive experiments employing a Bayesian Neural Network (BNN) baseline and an Interval Neural Network for inference on the MNIST, Fashion-MNIST, CIFAR-10 and CIFAR-100 datasets demonstrate that our Epistemic Wrapper significantly enhances generalisation and uncertainty quantification.

The machine learning community has recently put effort into quantized or low-precision arithmetics to scale large models. This paper proposes performing probabilistic inference in the quantized, discrete parameter space created by these representations, effectively enabling us to learn a continuous distribution using discrete parameters. We consider both 2D densities and quantized neural networks, where we introduce a tractable learning approach using probabilistic circuits. This method offers a scalable solution to manage complex distributions and provides clear insights into model behavior. We validate our approach with various models, demonstrating inference efficiency without sacrificing accuracy. This work advances scalable, interpretable machine learning by utilizing discrete approximations for probabilistic computations.

Curriculum analytics (CA) studies curriculum structure and student data to ensure the quality of educational programs. An essential aspect is studying course properties, which involves assigning each course a representative difficulty value. This is critical for several aspects of CA, such as quality control (e.g., monitoring variations over time), course comparisons (e.g., articulation), and course recommendation (e.g., advising). Measuring course difficulty requires careful consideration of multiple factors: First, when difficulty measures are sensitive to the performance level of enrolled students, it can bias interpretations by overlooking student diversity. By assessing difficulty independently of enrolled students' performances, we can reduce the risk of bias and enable fair, representative assessments of difficulty. Second, from a measurement theoretic perspective, the measurement must be reliable and valid to provide a robust basis for subsequent analyses. Third, difficulty measures should account for covariates, such as the characteristics of individual students within a diverse populations (e.g., transfer status). In recent years, various notions of difficulty have been proposed. This paper provides the first comprehensive review and comparison of existing approaches for assessing course difficulty based on grade point averages and latent trait modeling. It further offers a hands-on tutorial on model selection, assumption checking, and practical CA applications. These applications include monitoring course difficulty over time and detecting courses with disparate outcomes between distinct groups of students (e.g., dropouts vs. graduates), ultimately aiming to promote high-quality, fair, and equitable learning experiences. To support further research and application, we provide an open-source software package and artificial datasets, facilitating reproducibility and adoption.

A key problem in deep learning is data e ffi ciency.