There has been an increasing interest in exploring signed networks with positive and negative links in that they contain more information than unsigned networks. As fundamental problems of signed network analysis, community detection and sign (or attitude) prediction are still primary challenges. To address them, we propose a generative Bayesian approach, in which 1) a signed stochastic blockmodel is proposed to characterize the community structure in context of signed networks, by means of explicitly formulating the distributions of both density and frustration of signed links from a stochastic perspective, and 2) a model learning algorithm is proposed by theoretically deriving a variational Bayes EM for parameter estimation and a variation based approximate evidence for model selection. Through the comparisons with state-of-the-art methods on synthetic and real-world networks, the proposed approach shows its superiority in both community detection and sign prediction for exploratory networks.

Several heuristic search algorithms such as A* and breadth-first branch and bound have been developed for learning Bayesian network structures that optimize a scoring function. These algorithms rely on a lower bound function called k-cycle conflict heuristic in guiding the search to explore the most promising search spaces. The heuristic takes as input a partition of the random variables of a data set; the importance of the partition opens up opportunities for further research. This work introduces a new partition method based on information extracted from the potential optimal parent sets (POPS) of the variables. Empirical results show that the new partition can significantly improve the efficiency and scalability of heuristic search-based structure learning algorithms.

The global financial crisis occurred in 2008 and its contagion to other regions, as well as the long-lasting impact on different markets, show that it is increasingly important to understand the complicated coupling relationships across financial markets. This is indeed very difficult as complex hidden coupling relationships exist between different financial markets in various countries, which are very hard to model. The couplings involve interactions between homogeneous markets from various countries (we call intra-market coupling), interactions between heterogeneous markets (inter-market coupling) and interactions between current and past market behaviors (temporal coupling). Very limited work has been done towards modeling such complex couplings, whereas some existing methods predict market movement by simply aggregating indicators from various markets but ignoring the inbuilt couplings. As a result, these methods are highly sensitive to observations, and may often fail when financial indicators change slightly. In this paper, a coupled deep belief network is designed to accommodate the above three types of couplings across financial markets. With a deep-architecture model to capture the high-level coupled features, the proposed approach can infer market trends. Experimental results on data of stock and currency markets from three countries show that our approach outperforms other baselines, from both technical and business perspectives.

This paper is concerned with model-based clustering of discrete data. Latent class models (LCMs) are usually used for the task. An LCM consists of a latent variable and a number of attributes. It makes the overly restrictive assumption that the attributes are mutually independent given the latent variable. We propose a novel method to relax the assumption. The key idea is to partition the attributes into groups such that correlations among the attributes in each group can be properly modeled by using one single latent variable. The latent variables for the attribute groups are then used to build a number of models and one of them is chosen to produce the clustering results. Extensive empirical studies have been conducted to compare the new method with LCM and several other methods (K-means, kernel K-means and spectral clustering) that are not model-based. The new method outperforms the alternative methods in most cases and the differences are often large.

Many real-world Bayesian inference problems such as preference learning or trader valuation modeling in financial markets naturally use piecewise likelihoods. Unfortunately, exact closed-form inference in the underlying Bayesian graphical models is intractable in the general case and existing approximation techniques provide few guarantees on both approximation quality and efficiency. While (Markov Chain) Monte Carlo methods provide an attractive asymptotically unbiased approximation approach, rejection sampling and Metropolis-Hastings both prove inefficient in practice, and analytical derivation of Gibbs samplers require exponential space and time in the amount of data. In this work, we show how to transform problematic piecewise likelihoods into equivalent mixture models and then provide a blocked Gibbs sampling approach for this transformed model that achieves an exponential-to-linear reduction in space and time compared to a conventional Gibbs sampler. This enables fast, asymptotically unbiased Bayesian inference in a new expressive class of piecewise graphical models and empirically requires orders of magnitude less time than rejection, Metropolis-Hastings, and conventional Gibbs sampling methods to achieve the same level of accuracy.

Microblog sentiment classification is an important research topic which has wide applications in both academia and industry. Because microblog messages are short, noisy and contain masses of acronyms and informal words, microblog sentiment classification is a very challenging task. Fortunately, collectively the contextual information about these idiosyncratic words provide knowledge about their sentiment orientations. In this paper, we propose to use the microblogs' contextual knowledge mined from a large amount of unlabeled data to help improve microblog sentiment classification. We define two kinds of contextual knowledge: word-word association and word-sentiment association. The contextual knowledge is formulated as regularization terms in supervised learning algorithms. An efficient optimization procedure is proposed to learn the model. Experimental results on benchmark datasets show that our method can consistently and significantly outperform the state-of-the-art methods.

Most Relevant Explanation (MRE) is a new inference task in Bayesian networks that finds the most relevant partial instantiation of target variables as an explanation for given evidence by maximizing the Generalized Bayes Factor (GBF). No exact algorithm has been developed for solving MRE previously. This paper fills the void and introduces a breadth-first branch-and-bound MRE algorithm based on a novel upper bound on GBF. The bound is calculated by decomposing the computation of the score to a set of Markov blankets of subsets of evidence variables. Our empirical evaluations show that the proposed algorithm scales up exact MRE inference significantly.

The traditional way of obtaining models from data, inductive learning, has proved itself both in theory and in many practical applications. However, in domains where data is difficult or expensive to obtain, e.g., medicine, deep transfer learning is a more promising technique. It circumvents the model acquisition difficulties caused by scarce data in a target domain by carrying over structural properties of a model learned in a source domain where training data is ample. Nonetheless, the lack of a principled view of transfer learning so far has limited its adoption. In this paper, we address this issue by regarding transfer learning as a process that biases learning in a target domain in favor of patterns useful in a source domain. Specifically, we consider a first-order logic model of the data as an instantiation of a set of second-order templates. Hence, the usefulness of a model is partly determined by the learner's prior distribution over these template sets. The main insight of our work is that transferring knowledge amounts to acquiring a posterior over the second-order template sets by learning in the source domain and using this posterior when learning in the target setting. Our experimental evaluation demonstrates our approach to outperform the existing transfer learning techniques in terms of accuracy and runtime.

Monte-Carlo Tree Search, especially UCT and its POMDP version POMCP, have demonstrated excellent performanceon many problems. However, to efficiently scale to large domains one should also exploit hierarchical structure if present. In such hierarchical domains, finding rewarded states typically requires to search deeply; covering enough such informative states very far from the root becomes computationally expensive in flat non-hierarchical search approaches. We propose novel, scalable MCTS methods which integrate atask hierarchy into the MCTS framework, specifically lead-ing to hierarchical versions of both, UCT and POMCP. The new method does not need to estimate probabilistic models of each subtask, it instead computes subtask policies purely sample-based. We evaluate the hierarchical MCTS methods on various settings such as a hierarchical MDP, a Bayesian model-based hierarchical RL problem, and a large hierarchical POMDP.

Recent advances in Symbolic Dynamic Programming (SDP) combined withthe extended algebraic decision diagram (XADD) have provided exactsolutions for expressive subclasses of finite-horizon Hybrid MarkovDecision Processes (HMDPs) with mixed continuous and discrete stateand action parameters. Unfortunately, SDP suffers from two majordrawbacks: (1) it solves for all states and can be intractable formany problems that inherently have large optimal XADD value functionrepresentations; and (2) it cannot maintain compact (pruned) XADDrepresentations for domains with nonlinear dynamics and reward due tothe need for nonlinear constraint checking. In this work, wesimultaneously address both of these problems by introducing real-timeSDP (RTSDP). RTSDP addresses (1) by focusing the solution and valuerepresentation only on regions reachable from a set of initial statesand RTSDP addresses (2) by using visited states as witnesses ofreachable regions to assist in pruning irrelevant or unreachable(nonlinear) regions of the value function. To this end, RTSDP enjoysprovable convergence over the set of initial states and substantialspace and time savings over SDP as we demonstrate in a variety of hybrid domains ranging from inventory to reservoir to traffic control.