In collective decision making, members of a group need to coordinate their actions in order to achieve a desirable outcome. When there is no direct communication between group members, one must decide based on inferring others' intentions from their actions. The inference of others' intentions is called "theory of mind" and can involve different levels of reasoning, from a single inference of a hidden variable to considering others partially or fully optimal and reasoning about their actions conditioned on one's own actions (levels of "theory of mind"). In this paper, we present a new Bayesian theory of collective decision making based on a simple yet most commonly observed behavior: conformity. We show that such a Bayesian framework allows one to achieve any level of theory of mind in collective decision making. The viability of our framework is demonstrated on two different experiments, a consensus task with 120 subjects and a volunteer's dilemma task with 29 subjects, each with multiple conditions.

Federated learning (FL) is a distributed learning framework that leverages commonalities between distributed client datasets to train a global model. Under heterogeneous clients, however, FL can fail to produce stable training results. Personalized federated learning (PFL) seeks to address this by learning individual models tailored to each client. One approach is to decompose model training into shared representation learning and personalized classifier training. Nonetheless, previous works struggle to navigate the bias-variance trade-off in classifier learning, relying solely on limited local datasets or introducing costly techniques to improve generalization. In this work, we frame representation learning as a generative modeling task, where representations are trained with a classifier based on the global feature distribution. We then propose an algorithm, pFedFDA, that efficiently generates personalized models by adapting global generative classifiers to their local feature distributions. Through extensive computer vision benchmarks, we demonstrate that our method can adjust to complex distribution shifts with significant improvements over current state-of-the-art in data-scarce settings.

We propose SWA-Gaussian (SWAG), a simple, scalable, and general purpose approach for uncertainty representation and calibration in deep learning. Stochastic Weight Averaging (SWA), which computes the first moment of stochastic gradient descent (SGD) iterates with a modified learning rate schedule, has recently been shown to improve generalization in deep learning. With SWAG, we fit a Gaussian using the SWA solution as the first moment and a low rank plus diagonal covariance also derived from the SGD iterates, forming an approximate posterior distribution over neural network weights; we then sample from this Gaussian distribution to perform Bayesian model averaging. We empirically find that SWAG approximates the shape of the true posterior, in accordance with results describing the stationary distribution of SGD iterates. Moreover, we demonstrate that SWAG performs well on a wide variety of tasks, including out of sample detection, calibration, and transfer learning, in comparison to many popular alternatives including MC dropout, KFAC Laplace, SGLD, and temperature scaling.

We study online Bayesian persuasion problems in which an informed sender repeatedly faces a receiver with the goal of influencing their behavior through the provision of payoff-relevant information. Previous works assume that the sender has knowledge about either the prior distribution over states of nature or receiver's utilities, or both. We relax such unrealistic assumptions by considering settings in which the sender does not know anything about the prior and the receiver. We design an algorithm that achieves sublinear--in the number of rounds--regret with respect to an optimal signaling scheme, and we also provide a collection of lower bounds showing that the guarantees of such an algorithm are tight. Our algorithm works by searching a suitable space of signaling schemes in order to learn receiver's best responses. To do this, we leverage a non-standard representation of signaling schemes that allows to cleverly overcome the challenge of not knowing anything about the prior over states of nature and receiver's utilities. Finally, our results also allow to derive lower/upper bounds on the sample complexity of learning signaling schemes in a related Bayesian persuasion PAC-learning problem.

Generative Flow Networks (GFlowNets) are amortized samplers of unnormalized distributions over compositional objects with applications to causal discovery, NLP, and drug design. Recently, it was shown that GFlowNets can be framed as a hierarchical variational inference (HVI) method for discrete distributions. Despite this equivalence, attempts to train GFlowNets using traditional divergence measures as learning objectives were unsuccessful. Instead, current approaches for training these models rely on minimizing the log-squared difference between a proposal (forward policy) and a target (backward policy) distribution. In this work, we first formally extend the relationship between GFlowNets and HVI to distributions on arbitrary measurable topological spaces. Then, we empirically show that the ineffectiveness of divergence-based learning of GFlowNets is due to the large gradient variance of the corresponding stochastic objectives. To address this issue, we devise a collection of provably variance-reducing control variates for gradient estimation based on the REINFORCE leave-one-out estimator. Our experimental results suggest that the resulting algorithms often accelerate training convergence when compared against previous approaches. All in all, our work contributes by narrowing the gap between GFlowNet training and HVI, paving the way for algorithmic advancements inspired by the divergence minimization viewpoint.

Facial expression and action units (AUs) represent two levels of descriptions of the facial behavior. Due to the underlying facial anatomy and the need to form a meaningful coherent expression, they are strongly correlated. This paper proposes to systematically capture their dependencies and incorporate them into a deep learning framework for joint facial expression recognition and action unit detection. Specifically, we first propose a constraint optimization method to encode the generic knowledge on expression-AUs probabilistic dependencies into a Bayesian Network (BN). The BN is then integrated into a deep learning framework as a weak supervision for an AU detection model.

We deal with the selective classification problem (supervised-learning problem with a rejection option), where we want to achieve the best performance at a certain level of coverage of the data. We transform the original m-class classification problem to (m + 1)-class where the (m + 1)-th class represents the model abstaining from making a prediction due to disconfidence. Inspired by portfolio theory, we propose a loss function for the selective classification problem based on the doubling rate of gambling. Minimizing this loss function corresponds naturally to maximizing the return of a horse race, where a player aims to balance between betting on an outcome (making a prediction) when confident and reserving one's winnings (abstaining) when not confident. This loss function allows us to train neural networks and characterize the disconfidence of prediction in an end-to-end fashion. In comparison with previous methods, our method requires almost no modification to the model inference algorithm or model architecture. Experiments show that our method can identify uncertainty in data points, and achieves strong results on SVHN and CIFAR10 at various coverages of the data.

Aligning the world model with the environment for the agent's specific task is crucial in model-based reinforcement learning. While value-equivalent models may achieve better task awareness than maximum-likelihood models, they sacrifice a large amount of semantic information and face implementation issues. To combine the benefits of both types of models, we propose Task-aware Environment Modeling Pipeline with bi-level Optimization (TEMPO), a bi-level model learning framework that introduces an additional level of optimization on top of a maximum-likelihood model by incorporating a meta weighter network that weights each training sample. The meta weighter in the upper level learns to generate novel sample weights by minimizing a proposed task-aware model loss. The model in the lower level focuses on important samples while maintaining rich semantic information in state representations. We evaluate TEMPO on a variety of continuous and discrete control tasks from the DeepMind Control Suite and Atari video games. Our results demonstrate that TEMPO achieves state-of-the-art performance regarding asymptotic performance, training stability, and convergence speed.

We investigate active learning by pairwise similarity over the leaves of trees originating from hierarchical clustering procedures. In the realizable setting, we provide a full characterization of the number of queries needed to achieve perfect reconstruction of the tree cut. In the non-realizable setting, we rely on known important-sampling procedures to obtain regret and query complexity bounds. Our algorithms come with theoretical guarantees on the statistical error and, more importantly, lend themselves to linear-time implementations in the relevant parameters of the problem. We discuss such implementations, prove running time guarantees for them, and present preliminary experiments on real-world datasets showing the compelling practical performance of our algorithms as compared to both passive learning and simple active learning baselines.

A fundamental problem arising in many areas of machine learning is the evaluation of the likelihood of a given observation under different nominal distributions. Frequently, these nominal distributions are themselves estimated from data, which makes them susceptible to estimation errors. We thus propose to replace each nominal distribution with an ambiguity set containing all distributions in its vicinity and to evaluate an optimistic likelihood, that is, the maximum of the likelihood over all distributions in the ambiguity set. When the proximity of distributions is quantified by the Fisher-Rao distance or the Kullback-Leibler divergence, the emerging optimistic likelihoods can be computed efficiently using either geodesic or standard convex optimization techniques.