This paper examines some methods and ideas underlying the author's successful probabilistic learning systems(PLS), which have proven uniquely effective and efficient in generalization learning or induction. While the emerging principles are generally applicable, this paper illustrates them in heuristic search, which demands noise management and incremental learning. In our approach, both task performance and learning are guided by probability. Probabilities are incrementally normalized and revised, and their errors are located and corrected.

The ability to predict the future in a given domain can be acquired by discovering empirically from experience certain temporal patterns that tend to repeat unerringly. Previous works in time series analysis allow one to make quantitative predictions on the likely values of certain linear variables. Since certain types of knowledge are better expressed in symbolic forms, making qualitative predictions based on symbolic representations require a different approach. A domain independent methodology called TIM (Time based Inductive Machine) for discovering potentially uncertain temporal patterns from real time observations using the technique of inductive inference is described here.

Link prediction is one of the fundamental problems in network analysis. In many applications, notably in genetics, a partially observed network may not contain any negative examples of absent edges, which creates a difficulty for many existing supervised learning approaches. We develop a new method which treats the observed network as a sample of the true network with different sampling rates for positive and negative examples. We obtain a relative ranking of potential links by their probabilities, utilizing information on node covariates as well as on network topology. Empirically, the method performs well under many settings, including when the observed network is sparse. We apply the method to a protein-protein interaction network and a school friendship network.

Data mining methods have been widely applied in financial markets, with the purpose of providing suitable tools for prices forecasting and automatic trading. Particularly, learning methods aim to identify patterns in time series and, based on such patterns, to recommend buy/sell operations. The objective of this work is to evaluate the performance of Random Forests, a supervised learning method based on ensembles of decision trees, for decision support in stock markets. Preliminary results indicate good rates of successful operations and good rates of return per operation, providing a strong motivation for further research in this topic.

Determinantal point processes (DPPs) are elegant probabilistic models of repulsion that arise in quantum physics and random matrix theory. In contrast to traditional structured models like Markov random fields, which become intractable and hard to approximate in the presence of negative correlations, DPPs offer efficient and exact algorithms for sampling, marginalization, conditioning, and other inference tasks. We provide a gentle introduction to DPPs, focusing on the intuitions, algorithms, and extensions that are most relevant to the machine learning community, and show how DPPs can be applied to real-world applications like finding diverse sets of high-quality search results, building informative summaries by selecting diverse sentences from documents, modeling non-overlapping human poses in images or video, and automatically building timelines of important news stories.

In the superset label learning problem (SLL), each training instance provides a set of candidate labels of which one is the true label of the instance. As in ordinary regression, the candidate label set is a noisy version of the true label. In this work, we solve the problem by maximizing the likelihood of the candidate label sets of training instances. We propose a probabilistic model, the Logistic Stick-Breaking Conditional Multinomial Model (LSB-CMM), to do the job. The LSB-CMM is derived from the logistic stick-breaking process. It first maps data points to mixture components and then assigns to each mixture component a label drawn from a component-specific multinomial distribution.

In the superset label learning problem (SLL), each training instance provides a set of candidate labels of which one is the true label of the instance. As in ordinary regression, the candidate label set is a noisy version of the true label. In this work, we solve the problem by maximizing the likelihood of the candidate label sets of training instances. We propose a probabilistic model, the Logistic Stick-Breaking Conditional Multinomial Model (LSB-CMM), to do the job. The LSB-CMM is derived from the logistic stick-breaking process. It first maps data points to mixture components and then assigns to each mixture component a label drawn from a component-specific multinomial distribution.

In the superset label learning problem (SLL), each training instance provides a set of candidate labels of which one is the true label of the instance. As in ordinary regression, the candidate label set is a noisy version of the true label. In this work, we solve the problem by maximizing the likelihood of the candidate label sets of training instances. We propose a probabilistic model, the Logistic Stick-Breaking Conditional Multinomial Model (LSB-CMM), to do the job. The LSB-CMM is derived from the logistic stick-breaking process. It first maps data points to mixture components and then assigns to each mixture component a label drawn from a component-specific multinomial distribution.

Boolean satisfiability (SAT) as a canonical NP-complete decision problem is one of the most important problems in computer science. In practice, real-world SAT sentences are drawn from a distribution that may result in efficient algorithms for their solution. Such SAT instances are likely to have shared characteristics and substructures. This work approaches the exploration of a family of SAT solvers as a learning problem. In particular, we relate polynomial time solvability of a SAT subset to a notion of margin between sentences mapped by a feature function into a Hilbert space. Provided this mapping is based on polynomial time computable statistics of a sentence, we show that the existance of a margin between these data points implies the existance of a polynomial time solver for that SAT subset based on the Davis-Putnam-Logemann-Loveland algorithm. Furthermore, we show that a simple perceptron-style learning rule will find an optimal SAT solver with a bounded number of training updates. We derive a linear time computable set of features and show analytically that margins exist for important polynomial special cases of SAT. Empirical results show an order of magnitude improvement over a state-of-the-art SAT solver on a hardware verification task.

We address the problem of general supervised learning when data can only be accessed through an (indefinite) similarity function between data points. Existing work on learning with indefinite kernels has concentrated solely on binary/multiclass classification problems. We propose a model that is generic enough to handle any supervised learning task and also subsumes the model previously proposed for classification. We give a ''goodness'' criterion for similarity functions w.r.t. a given supervised learning task and then adapt a well-known landmarking technique to provide efficient algorithms for supervised learning using ''good'' similarity functions. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our model on three important supervised learning problems: a) real-valued regression, b) ordinal regression and c) ranking where we show that our method guarantees bounded generalization error. Furthermore, for the case of real-valued regression, we give a natural goodness definition that, when used in conjunction with a recent result in sparse vector recovery, guarantees a sparse predictor with bounded generalization error. Finally, we report results of our learning algorithms on regression and ordinal regression tasks using non-PSD similarity functions and demonstrate the effectiveness of our algorithms, especially that of the sparse landmark selection algorithm that achieves significantly higher accuracies than the baseline methods while offering reduced computational costs.