The Olympic Games are an important sporting event with notable consequences for the general economic landscape of the host city. Traditional economic assessments focus on the aggregated impact of the event on the national income, but fail to provide micro-scale insights on why local businesses will benefit from the increased activity during the Games.In this paper we provide a novel approach to modeling the impact of the Olympic Games on local retailers by analyzing a dataset mined from a large location-based social service, Foursquare. We hypothesize that the spatial positioning of businesses as well as the mobility trends of visitors are primary indicators of whether retailers will rise their popularity during the event. To confirm this we formulate a retail winners prediction task in the context of which we evaluate a set of geographic and mobility metrics. We find that the proximity to stadiums, the diversity of activity in the neighborhood, the nearby area sociability, as well as the probability of customer flows from and to event places such as stadiums and parks are all vital factors. Through supervised learning techniques we demonstrate that the success of businesses hinges on a combination of both geographic and mobility factors. Our results suggest that location-based social networks, where crowdsourced information about the dynamic interaction of users with urban spaces becomes publicly available, present an alternative medium to assess the economic impact of large scale events in a city.

The internet has become a resource for adolescents who are distressed by social and emotional problems. Social network analysis can provide new opportunities for helping people seeking support online, but only if we understand the salient issues that are highly relevant to participants personal circumstances. In this paper, we present a stacked generalization modeling approach to analyze an online community supporting adolescents under duress. While traditional predictive supervised methods rely on robust hand-crafted feature space engineering, mixed initiative semi-supervised topic models are often better at extracting high-level themes that go beyond such feature spaces. We present a strategy that combines the strengths of both these types of models inspired by Prevention Science approaches which deals with the identification and amelioration of risk factors that predict to psychological, psychosocial, and psychiatric disorders within and across populations (in our case teenagers) rather than treat them post-facto. In this study, prevention scientists used a social science thematic analytic approach to code stories according to a fine-grained analysis of salient social, developmental or psychological themes they deemed relevant, and these are then analyzed by a society of models. We show that a stacked generalization of such an ensemble fares better than individual binary predictive models.

We develop a technique for deriving data-dependent error bounds for transductive learning algorithms based on transductive Rademacher complexity. Our technique is based on a novel general error bound for transduction in terms of transductive Rademacher complexity, together with a novel bounding technique for Rademacher averages for particular algorithms, in terms of their "unlabeled-labeled" representation. This technique is relevant to many advanced graph-based transductive algorithms and we demonstrate its effectiveness by deriving error bounds to three well known algorithms. Finally, we present a new PAC-Bayesian bound for mixtures of transductive algorithms based on our Rademacher bounds.

We propose a boosting method, DirectBoost, a greedy coordinate descent algorithm that builds an ensemble classifier of weak classifiers through directly minimizing empirical classification error over labeled training examples; once the training classification error is reduced to a local coordinatewise minimum, DirectBoost runs a greedy coordinate ascent algorithm that continuously adds weak classifiers to maximize any targeted arbitrarily defined margins until reaching a local coordinatewise maximum of the margins in a certain sense. Experimental results on a collection of machine-learning benchmark datasets show that DirectBoost gives consistently better results than AdaBoost, LogitBoost, LPBoost with column generation and BrownBoost, and is noise tolerant when it maximizes an n'th order bottom sample margin.

We consider the problem of learning good trajectories for manipulation tasks. This is challenging because the criterion defining a good trajectory varies with users, tasks and environments. In this paper, we propose a co-active online learning framework for teaching robots the preferences of its users for object manipulation tasks. The key novelty of our approach lies in the type of feedback expected from the user: the human user does not need to demonstrate optimal trajectories as training data, but merely needs to iteratively provide trajectories that slightly improve over the trajectory currently proposed by the system. We argue that this co-active preference feedback can be more easily elicited from the user than demonstrations of optimal trajectories, which are often challenging and non-intuitive to provide on high degrees of freedom manipulators. Nevertheless, theoretical regret bounds of our algorithm match the asymptotic rates of optimal trajectory algorithms. We also formulate a score function to capture the contextual information and demonstrate the generalizability of our algorithm on a variety of household tasks, for whom, the preferences were not only influenced by the object being manipulated but also by the surrounding environment.

We investigate the relationship between three fundamental problems in machine learning: binary classification, bipartite ranking, and binary class probability estimation (CPE). It is known that a good binary CPE model can be used to obtain a good binary classification model (by thresholding at 0.5), and also to obtain a good bipartite ranking model (by using the CPE model directly as a ranking model); it is also known that a binary classification model does not necessarily yield a CPE model. However, not much is known about other directions. Formally, these relationships involve regret transfer bounds. In this paper, we introduce the notion of weak regret transfer bounds, where the mapping needed to transform a model from one problem to another depends on the underlying probability distribution (and in practice, must be estimated from data). We then show that, in this weaker sense, a good bipartite ranking model can be used to construct a good classification model (by thresholding at a suitable point), and more surprisingly, also to construct a good binary CPE model (by calibrating the scores of the ranking model).

Incorporating invariance information is important for many learning problems. To exploit invariances, most existing methods resort to approximations that either lead to expensive optimization problems such as semi-definite programming, or rely on separation oracles to retain tractability. Some methods further limit the space of functions and settle for non-convex models. In this paper, we propose a framework for learning in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHS) using local invariances that explicitly characterize the behavior of the target function around data instances. These invariances are \emph{compactly} encoded as linear functionals whose value are penalized by some loss function. Based on a representer theorem that we establish, our formulation can be efficiently optimized via a convex program. For the representer theorem to hold, the linear functionals are required to be bounded in the RKHS, and we show that this is true for a variety of commonly used RKHS and invariances. Experiments on learning with unlabeled data and transform invariances show that the proposed method yields better or similar results compared with the state of the art.

In this paper we present active learning algorithms in the context of structured prediction problems. To reduce the amount of labeling necessary to learn good models, our algorithms only label subsets of the output. To this end, we query examples using entropies of local marginals, which are a good surrogate for uncertainty. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in the task of 3D layout prediction from single images, and show that good models are learned when labeling only a handful of random variables. In particular, the same performance as using the full training set can be obtained while only labeling ~10\% of the random variables.

A successful approach to structured learning is to write the learning objective as a joint function of linear parameters and inference messages, and iterate between updates to each. This paper observes that if the inference problem is "smoothed" through the addition of entropy terms, for fixed messages, the learning objective reduces to a traditional (non-structured) logistic regression problem with respect to parameters. In these logistic regression problems, each training example has a bias term determined by the current set of messages. Based on this insight, the structured energy function can be extended from linear factors to any function class where an "oracle" exists to minimize a logistic loss.

This paper presents Correlated Nystrom Views (XNV), a fast semi-supervised algorithm for regression and classification. The algorithm draws on two main ideas. First, it generates two views consisting of computationally inexpensive random features. Second, multiview regression, using Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) on unlabeled data, biases the regression towards useful features. It has been shown that CCA regression can substantially reduce variance with a minimal increase in bias if the views contains accurate estimators. Recent theoretical and empirical work shows that regression with random features closely approximates kernel regression, implying that the accuracy requirement holds for random views. We show that XNV consistently outperforms a state-of-the-art algorithm for semi-supervised learning: substantially improving predictive performance and reducing the variability of performance on a wide variety of real-world datasets, whilst also reducing runtime by orders of magnitude.