The recently proposed Temporal Ensembling has achieved state-of-the-art results in several semi-supervised learning benchmarks. It maintains an exponential moving average of label predictions on each training example, and penalizes predictions that are inconsistent with this target. However, because the targets change only once per epoch, Temporal Ensembling becomes unwieldy when learning large datasets. To overcome this problem, we propose Mean Teacher, a method that averages model weights instead of label predictions. As an additional benefit, Mean Teacher improves test accuracy and enables training with fewer labels than Temporal Ensembling. Without changing the network architecture, Mean Teacher achieves an error rate of 4.35% on SVHN with 250 labels, outperforming Temporal Ensembling trained with 1000 labels. We also show that a good network architecture is crucial to performance. Combining Mean Teacher and Residual Networks, we improve the state of the art on CIFAR-10 with 4000 labels from 10.55% to 6.28%, and on ImageNet 2012 with 10% of the labels from 35.24% to 9.11%.

We provide novel theoretical insights on structured prediction in the context of efficient convex surrogate loss minimization with consistency guarantees. For any task loss, we construct a convex surrogate that can be optimized via stochastic gradient descent and we prove tight bounds on the so-called "calibration function" relating the excess surrogate risk to the actual risk. In contrast to prior related work, we carefully monitor the effect of the exponential number of classes in the learning guarantees as well as on the optimization complexity. As an interesting consequence, we formalize the intuition that some task losses make learning harder than others, and that the classical 0-1 loss is ill-suited for structured prediction.

ML systems are very strong at learning empirical associations in data but are less effective when the task requires long chains of reasoning or complex planning that rely on common sense or background knowledge unknown to the computer. Ng's "one-second rule" (4) suggests that ML will do well on video games that require quick reaction and provide instantaneous feedback but less well on games where choosing the optimal action depends on remembering previous events distant in time and on unknown background knowledge about the world (e.g., knowing where in the room a newly introduced item is likely to be found) (12). Exceptions to this are games such as Go and chess, because these nonphysical games can be rapidly simulated with perfect accuracy, so that millions of perfectly self-labeled training examples can be automatically collected. However, in most real-world domains, we lack such perfect simulations.

My nonlinear gaussian kernel SVM with 2 features and 100 training examples trains in under a second but when creating a decision boundary, it takes around 53 seconds on 40,000 test examples for a decision boundary. Is that a reasonable amount of time or should I look for ways to vectorize? Here is the code if anyone wants to run it themselves.

We propose a novel approach for using unsupervised boosting to create an ensemble of generative models, where models are trained in sequence to correct earlier mistakes. Our meta-algorithmic framework can leverage any existing base learner that permits likelihood evaluation, including recent deep expressive models. Further, our approach allows the ensemble to include discriminative models trained to distinguish real data from model-generated data. We show theoretical conditions under which incorporating a new model in the ensemble will improve the fit and empirically demonstrate the effectiveness of our black-box boosting algorithms on density estimation, classification, and sample generation on benchmark datasets for a wide range of generative models.

I don't know about all of you, but flying doesn't always go smoothly for me. I have had some horror stories I could tell you about weird delays I have encountered while flying. Wouldn't it be nice to know how much your flight will probably be delayed and why? Well, that's what this project will attempt to do. Granted, the data scientists over at Hortonworks did a very similar project (and a well done one in my opinion!) just a few months ago. My project will be a little different from theirs in that instead of doing a classification problem (yes/no for a delayed flight), this will be a regression problem where I will try to predict the delay time in number of minutes (which can be negative). The regression model will not be restricted to a single city, so we are going to be working with a very large number of training examples! To complete this project, we need some data about flights. Fortunately, the government keeps such a resource available that we are going to examine in this project. Similar to the project about faculty salaries, this post will be split into two major parts: exploratory data analysis and feature engineering in R, with regression model implementation in Python.

Many predicted structured objects (e.g., sequences, matchings, trees) are evaluated using the F-score, alignment error rate (AER), or other multivariate performance measures. Since inductively optimizing these measures using training data is typically computationally difficult, empirical risk minimization of surrogate losses is employed, using, e.g., the hinge loss for (structured) support vector machines. These approximations often introduce a mismatch between the learner's objective and the desired application performance, leading to inconsistency. We take a different approach: adversarially approximate training data while optimizing the exact F-score or AER. Structured predictions under this formulation result from solving zero-sum games between a predictor seeking the best performance and an adversary seeking the worst while required to (approximately) match certain structured properties of the training data. We explore this approach for word alignment (AER evaluation) and named entity recognition (F-score evaluation) with linear-chain constraints.

The randomized-feature approach has been successfully employed in large-scale kernel approximation and supervised learning. The distribution from which the random features are drawn impacts the number of features required to efficiently perform a learning task. Recently, it has been shown that employing data-dependent randomization improves the performance in terms of the required number of random features. In this paper, we are concerned with the randomized-feature approach in supervised learning for good generalizability. We propose the Energy-based Exploration of Random Features (EERF) algorithm based on a data-dependent score function that explores the set of possible features and exploits the promising regions. We prove that the proposed score function with high probability recovers the spectrum of the best fit within the model class. Our empirical results on several benchmark datasets further verify that our method requires smaller number of random features to achieve a certain generalization error compared to the state-of-the-art while introducing negligible pre-processing overhead. EERF can be implemented in a few lines of code and requires no additional tuning parameters.

This article is devoted to the problem of predicting the value taken by a random permutation $\Sigma$, describing the preferences of an individual over a set of numbered items $\{1,\; \ldots,\; n\}$ say, based on the observation of an input/explanatory r.v. $X$ e.g. characteristics of the individual), when error is measured by the Kendall $\tau$ distance. In the probabilistic formulation of the 'Learning to Order' problem we propose, which extends the framework for statistical Kemeny ranking aggregation developped in \citet{CKS17}, this boils down to recovering conditional Kemeny medians of $\Sigma$ given $X$ from i.i.d. training examples $(X_1, \Sigma_1),\; \ldots,\; (X_N, \Sigma_N)$. For this reason, this statistical learning problem is referred to as \textit{ranking median regression} here. Our contribution is twofold. We first propose a probabilistic theory of ranking median regression: the set of optimal elements is characterized, the performance of empirical risk minimizers is investigated in this context and situations where fast learning rates can be achieved are also exhibited. Next we introduce the concept of local consensus/median, in order to derive efficient methods for ranking median regression. The major advantage of this local learning approach lies in its close connection with the widely studied Kemeny aggregation problem. From an algorithmic perspective, this permits to build predictive rules for ranking median regression by implementing efficient techniques for (approximate) Kemeny median computations at a local level in a tractable manner. In particular, versions of $k$-nearest neighbor and tree-based methods, tailored to ranking median regression, are investigated. Accuracy of piecewise constant ranking median regression rules is studied under a specific smoothness assumption for $\Sigma$'s conditional distribution given $X$.

The recent literature on deep learning offers new tools to learn a rich probability distribution over high dimensional data such as images or sounds. In this work we investigate the possibility of learning the prior distribution over neural network parameters using such tools. Our resulting variational Bayes algorithm generalizes well to new tasks, even when very few training examples are provided. Furthermore, this learned prior allows the model to extrapolate correctly far from a given task's training data on a meta-dataset of periodic signals.