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Opening the Black Box: An Explainable, Few-shot AI4E Framework Informed by Physics and Expert Knowledge for Materials Engineering

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The industrial adoption of Artificial Intelligence for Engineering (AI4E) faces two fundamental bottlenecks: scarce high-quality data and the lack of interpretability in black-box models-particularly critical in safety-sensitive sectors like aerospace. We present an explainable, few-shot AI4E framework that is systematically informed by physics and expert knowledge throughout its architecture. Starting from only 32 experimental samples in an aerial K439B superalloy castings repair welding case, we first augment physically plausible synthetic data through a three-stage protocol: differentiated noise injection calibrated to process variabilities, enforcement of hard physical constraints, and preservation of inter-parameter relationships. We then employ a nested optimization strategy for constitutive model discovery, where symbolic regression explores equation structures while differential evolution optimizes parameters, followed by intensive parameter refinement using hybrid global-local optimization. The resulting interpretable constitutive equation achieves 88% accuracy in predicting hot-cracking tendency. This equation not only provides quantitative predictions but also delivers explicit physical insight, revealing how thermal, geometric, and metallurgical mechanisms couple to drive cracking-thereby advancing engineers' cognitive understanding of the process. Furthermore, the constitutive equation serves as a multi-functional tool for process optimization and high-fidelity virtual data generation, enabling accuracy improvements in other data-driven models. Our approach provides a general blueprint for developing trustworthy AI systems that embed engineering domain knowledge directly into their architecture, enabling reliable adoption in high-stakes industrial applications where data is limited but physical understanding is available.


Leveraging AI multimodal geospatial foundation models for improved near-real-time flood mapping at a global scale

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Floods are among the most damaging weather-related hazards, and in 2024, the warmest year on record, extreme flood events affected communities across five continents. Earth observation (EO) satellites provide critical, frequent coverage for mapping inundation, yet operational accuracy depends heavily on labeled datasets and model generalization. Recent Geospatial Foundation Models (GFMs), such as ESA-IBM's TerraMind, offer improved generalizability through large-scale self-supervised pretraining, but their performance on diverse global flood events remains poorly understood. We fine-tune TerraMind for flood extent mapping using FloodsNet, a harmonized multimodal dataset containing co-located Sentinel-1 (Synthetic Aperture Radar, SAR data) and Sentinel-2 (optical) imagery for 85 flood events worldwide. We tested four configurations (base vs. large models; frozen vs. unfrozen backbones) and compared against the TerraMind Sen1Floods11 example and a U-Net trained on both FloodsNet and Sen1Floods11. The base-unfrozen configuration provided the best balance of accuracy, precision, and recall at substantially lower computational cost than the large model. The large unfrozen model achieved the highest recall. Models trained on FloodsNet outperformed the Sen1Floods11-trained example in recall with similar overall accuracy. U-Net achieved higher recall than all GFM configurations, though with slightly lower accuracy and precision. Our results demonstrate that integrating multimodal optical and SAR data and fine-tuning a GFM can enhance near-real-time flood mapping. This study provides one of the first global-scale evaluations of a GFM for flood segmentation, highlighting both its potential and current limitations for climate adaptation and disaster resilience.


The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Enterprise Decision-Making Process

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Artificial intelligence improves enterprise decision-making by accelerating data analysis, reducing human error, and supporting evidence-based choices. A quantitative survey of 92 companies across multiple industries examines how AI adoption influences managerial performance, decision efficiency, and organizational barriers. Results show that 93 percent of firms use AI, primarily in customer service, data forecasting, and decision support. AI systems increase the speed and clarity of managerial decisions, yet implementation faces challenges. The most frequent barriers include employee resistance, high costs, and regulatory ambiguity. Respondents indicate that organizational factors are more significant than technological limitations. Critical competencies for successful AI use include understanding algorithmic mechanisms and change management. Technical skills such as programming play a smaller role. Employees report difficulties in adapting to AI tools, especially when formulating prompts or accepting system outputs. The study highlights the importance of integrating AI with human judgment and communication practices. When supported by adaptive leadership and transparent processes, AI adoption enhances organizational agility and strengthens decision-making performance. These findings contribute to ongoing research on how digital technologies reshape management and the evolution of hybrid human-machine decision environments.


Beyond Confidence: Adaptive and Coherent Decoding for Diffusion Language Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Diffusion Language Models (DLMs) have recently achieved significant success due to their any-order generation capabilities. However, existing inference methods typically rely on local, immediate-step metrics such as confidence or entropy which inherently lack a more reliable perspective. This limitation frequently leads to inconsistent sampling trajectories and suboptimal generation quality. To address this, we propose Coherent Contextual Decoding (CCD), a novel inference framework built upon two core innovations. First, CCD employs a trajectory rectification mechanism that leverages historical context to enhance sequence coherence, enabling the early rejection of suboptimal paths. We demonstrate that this mechanism is theoretically equivalent to modeling the consistency of historical steps via the conditional mutual information between context and token predictions. Building on this theoretical insight, we further address the inefficiency of conventional uniform decoding budgets. Instead of rigid allocations based on diffusion steps, we introduce an adaptive sampling strategy that dynamically adjusts the unmasking budget for each step according to our consistency metric. Consequently, our method significantly improves the quality of generation trajectories while accelerating the sampling process. Empirically, our method achieves a simultaneous enhancement in both inference speed and performance across diverse benchmarks on Dream and LLaDA, delivering up to 3.48x speedup alongside 3.91% performance improvement.


Mirror, Mirror on the Wall -- Which is the Best Model of Them All?

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Large Language Models (LLMs) have become one of the most transformative tools across many applications, as they have significantly boosted productivity and achieved impressive results in various domains such as finance, healthcare, education, telecommunications, and law, among others. Typically, state-of-the-art (SOTA) foundation models are developed by large corporations based on large data collections and substantial computational and financial resources required to pretrain such models from scratch. These foundation models then serve as the basis for further development and domain adaptation for specific use cases or tasks. However, given the dynamic and fast-paced nature of launching new foundation models, the process of selecting the most suitable model for a particular use case, application, or domain becomes increasingly complex. We argue that there are two main dimensions that need to be taken into consideration when selecting a model for further training: a qualitative dimension (which model is best suited for a task based on information, for instance, taken from model cards) and a quantitative dimension (which is the best performing model). The quantitative performance of models is assessed through leaderboards, which rank models based on standardized benchmarks and provide a consistent framework for comparing different LLMs. In this work, we address the analysis of the quantitative dimension by exploring the current leaderboards and benchmarks. To illustrate this analysis, we focus on the medical domain as a case study, demonstrating the evolution, current landscape, and practical significance of this quantitative evaluation dimension. Finally, we propose a Model Selection Methodology (MSM), a systematic approach designed to guide the navigation, prioritization, and selection of the model that best aligns with a given use case.


Statistical Arbitrage in Polish Equities Market Using Deep Learning Techniques

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We study a systematic approach to a popular Statistical Arbitrage technique: Pairs Trading. Instead of relying on two highly correlated assets, we replace the second asset with a replication of the first using risk factor representations. These factors are obtained through Principal Components Analysis (PCA), exchange traded funds (ETFs), and, as our main contribution, Long Short Term Memory networks (LSTMs). Residuals between the main asset and its replication are examined for mean reversion properties, and trading signals are generated for sufficiently fast mean reverting portfolios. Beyond introducing a deep learning based replication method, we adapt the framework of Avellaneda and Lee (2008) to the Polish market. Accordingly, components of WIG20, mWIG40, and selected sector indices replace the original S&P500 universe, and market parameters such as the risk free rate and transaction costs are updated to reflect local conditions. We outline the full strategy pipeline: risk factor construction, residual modeling via the Ornstein Uhlenbeck process, and signal generation. Each replication technique is described together with its practical implementation. Strategy performance is evaluated over two periods: 2017-2019 and the recessive year 2020. All methods yield profits in 2017-2019, with PCA achieving roughly 20 percent cumulative return and an annualized Sharpe ratio of up to 2.63. Despite multiple adaptations, our conclusions remain consistent with those of the original paper. During the COVID-19 recession, only the ETF based approach remains profitable (about 5 percent annual return), while PCA and LSTM methods underperform. LSTM results, although negative, are promising and indicate potential for future optimization.


Integration of LSTM Networks in Random Forest Algorithms for Stock Market Trading Predictions

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The aim of this paper is the analysis and selection of stock trading systems that combine different models with data of different nature, such as financial and microeconomic information. Specifically, based on previous work by the authors and applying advanced techniques of Machine Learning and Deep Learning, our objective is to formulate trading algorithms for the stock market with empirically tested statistical advantages, thus improving results published in the literature. Our approach integrates Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks with algorithms based on decision trees, such as Random Forest and Gradient Boosting. While the former analyze price patterns of financial assets, the latter are fed with economic data of companies. Numerical simulations of algorithmic trading with data from international companies and 10-weekday predictions confirm that an approach based on both fundamental and technical variables can outperform the usual approaches, which do not combine those two types of variables. In doing so, Random Forest turned out to be the best performer among the decision trees. We also discuss how the prediction performance of such a hybrid approach can be boosted by selecting the technical variables.


CONFIDE: Hallucination Assessment for Reliable Biomolecular Structure Prediction and Design

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Reliable evaluation of protein structure predictions remains challenging, as metrics like pLDDT capture energetic stability but often miss subtle errors such as atomic clashes or conformational traps reflecting topological frustration within the protein folding energy landscape. We present CODE (Chain of Diffusion Embeddings), a self evaluating metric empirically found to quantify topological frustration directly from the latent diffusion embeddings of the AlphaFold3 series of structure predictors in a fully unsupervised manner. Integrating this with pLDDT, we propose CONFIDE, a unified evaluation framework that combines energetic and topological perspectives to improve the reliability of AlphaFold3 and related models. CODE strongly correlates with protein folding rates driven by topological frustration, achieving a correlation of 0.82 compared to pLDDT's 0.33 (a relative improvement of 148\%). CONFIDE significantly enhances the reliability of quality evaluation in molecular glue structure prediction benchmarks, achieving a Spearman correlation of 0.73 with RMSD, compared to pLDDT's correlation of 0.42, a relative improvement of 73.8\%. Beyond quality assessment, our approach applies to diverse drug design tasks, including all-atom binder design, enzymatic active site mapping, mutation induced binding affinity prediction, nucleic acid aptamer screening, and flexible protein modeling. By combining data driven embeddings with theoretical insight, CODE and CONFIDE outperform existing metrics across a wide range of biomolecular systems, offering robust and versatile tools to refine structure predictions, advance structural biology, and accelerate drug discovery.


Characterizing Continuous and Discrete Hybrid Latent Spaces for Structural Connectomes

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Structural connectomes are detailed graphs that map how different brain regions are physically connected, offering critical insight into aging, cognition, and neurodegenerative diseases. However, these connectomes are high-dimensional and densely interconnected, which makes them difficult to interpret and analyze at scale. While low-dimensional spaces like PCA and autoencoders are often used to capture major sources of variation, their latent spaces are generally continuous and cannot fully reflect the mixed nature of variability in connectomes, which include both continuous (e.g., connectivity strength) and discrete factors (e.g., imaging site). Motivated by this, we propose a variational autoencoder (VAE) with a hybrid latent space that jointly models the discrete and continuous components. We analyze a large dataset of 5,761 connectomes from six Alzheimer's disease studies with ten acquisition protocols. Each connectome represents a single scan from a unique subject (3579 females, 2182 males), aged 22 to 102, with 4338 cognitively normal, 809 with mild cognitive impairment (MCI), and 614 with Alzheimer's disease (AD). Each connectome contains 121 brain regions defined by the BrainCOLOR atlas. We train our hybrid VAE in an unsupervised way and characterize what each latent component captures. We find that the discrete space is particularly effective at capturing subtle site-related differences, achieving an Adjusted Rand Index (ARI) of 0.65 with site labels, significantly outperforming PCA and a standard VAE followed by clustering (p < 0.05). These results demonstrate that the hybrid latent space can disentangle distinct sources of variability in connectomes in an unsupervised manner, offering potential for large-scale connectome analysis.


Pharmacophore-based design by learning on voxel grids

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Ligand-based drug discovery (LBDD) relies on making use of known binders to a protein target to find structurally diverse molecules similarly likely to bind. This process typically involves a brute force search of the known binder (query) against a molecular library using some metric of molecular similarity. One popular approach overlays the pharmacophore-shape profile of the known binder to 3D conformations enumerated for each of the library molecules, computes overlaps, and picks a set of diverse library molecules with high overlaps. While this virtual screening workflow has had considerable success in hit diversification, scaffold hopping, and patent busting, it scales poorly with library sizes and restricts candidate generation to existing library compounds. Leveraging recent advances in voxel-based generative modelling, we propose a pharmacophore-based generative model and workflows that address the scaling and fecundity issues of conventional pharmacophore-based virtual screening. We introduce \emph{VoxCap}, a voxel captioning method for generating SMILES strings from voxelised molecular representations. We propose two workflows as practical use cases as well as benchmarks for pharmacophore-based generation: \emph{de-novo} design, in which we aim to generate new molecules with high pharmacophore-shape similarities to query molecules, and fast search, which aims to combine generative design with a cheap 2D substructure similarity search for efficient hit identification. Our results show that VoxCap significantly outperforms previous methods in generating diverse \textit{de-novo} hits. When combined with our fast search workflow, VoxCap reduces computational time by orders of magnitude while returning hits for all query molecules, enabling the search of large libraries that are intractable to search by brute force.