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Clinical Interpretability of Deep Learning Segmentation Through Shapley-Derived Agreement and Uncertainty Metrics
Ren, Tianyi, Low, Daniel, Jaengprajak, Pittra, Rivera, Juampablo Heras, Ruzevick, Jacob, Kurt, Mehmet
Segmentation is the identification of anatomical regions of interest, such as organs, tissue, and lesions, serving as a fundamental task in computer-aided diagnosis in medical imaging. Although deep learning models have achieved remarkable performance in medical image segmentation, the need for explainability remains critical for ensuring their acceptance and integration in clinical practice, despite the growing research attention in this area. Our approach explored the use of contrast-level Shapley values, a systematic perturbation of model inputs to assess feature importance. While other studies have investigated gradient-based techniques through identifying influential regions in imaging inputs, Shapley values offer a broader, clinically aligned approach, explaining how model performance is fairly attributed to certain imaging contrasts over others. Using the BraTS 2024 dataset, we generated rankings for Shapley values for four MRI contrasts across four model architectures. Two metrics were proposed from the Shapley ranking: agreement between model and ``clinician" imaging ranking, and uncertainty quantified through Shapley ranking variance across cross-validation folds. Higher-performing cases (Dice \textgreater0.6) showed significantly greater agreement with clinical rankings. Increased Shapley ranking variance correlated with decreased performance (U-Net: $r=-0.581$). These metrics provide clinically interpretable proxies for model reliability, helping clinicians better understand state-of-the-art segmentation models.
Characterizing Lane-Changing Behavior in Mixed Traffic
Chung, Sungyong, Talebpour, Alireza, Hamdar, Samer H.
Characterizing and understanding lane-changing behavior in the presence of automated vehicles (AVs) is crucial to ensuring safety and efficiency in mixed traffic. Accordingly, this study aims to characterize the interactions between the lane-changing vehicle (active vehicle) and the vehicle directly impacted by the maneuver in the target lane (passive vehicle). Utilizing real-world trajectory data from the Waymo Open Motion Dataset (WOMD), this study explores patterns in lane-changing behavior and provides insight into how these behaviors evolve under different AV market penetration rates (MPRs). In particular, we propose a game-theoretic framework to analyze cooperative and defective behaviors in mixed traffic, applied to the 7,636 observed lane-changing events in the WOMD. First, we utilize k-means clustering to classify vehicles as cooperative or defective, revealing that the proportions of cooperative AVs are higher than those of HDVs in both active and passive roles. Next, we jointly estimate the utilities of active and passive vehicles to model their behaviors using the quantal response equilibrium framework. Empirical payoff tables are then constructed based on these utilities. Using these payoffs, we analyze the presence of social dilemmas and examine the evolution of cooperative behaviors using evolutionary game theory. Our results reveal the presence of social dilemmas in approximately 4% and 11% of lane-changing events for active and passive vehicles, respectively, with most classified as Stag Hunt or Prisoner's Dilemma (Chicken Game rarely observed). Moreover, the Monte Carlo simulation results show that repeated lane-changing interactions consistently lead to increased cooperative behavior over time, regardless of the AV penetration rate.
Geometric Prior-Guided Federated Prompt Calibration
Luo, Fei, Zhao, Ziwei, Wang, Mingxuan, Li, Duoyang, Qian, Zhe, Tuo, Jiayi, Zhou, Chenyue, Ma, Yanbiao
Federated Prompt Learning (FPL) offers a parameter-efficient solution for collaboratively training large models, but its performance is severely hindered by data heterogeneity, which causes locally trained prompts to become biased. Existing methods, focusing on aggregation or regularization, fail to address this root cause of local training bias. To this end, we propose Geometry-Guided Text Prompt Calibration (GGTPC), a novel framework that directly corrects this bias by providing clients with a global geometric prior. This prior, representing the shape of the global data distribution derived from the covariance matrix, is reconstructed on the server in a privacy-preserving manner. Clients then use a novel Geometry-Prior Calibration Layer (GPCL) to align their local feature distributions with this global prior during training. Extensive experiments show GGTPC's effectiveness. On the label-skewed CIFAR-100 dataset ($ฮฒ$=0.1), it outperforms the state-of-the-art by 2.15\%. Under extreme skew ($ฮฒ$=0.01), it improves upon the baseline by 9.17\%. Furthermore, as a plug-and-play module on the domain-skewed Office-Home dataset, it boosts FedAvg's performance by 4.60\%. These results demonstrate that GGTPC effectively mitigates data heterogeneity by correcting the fundamental local training bias, serving as a versatile module to enhance various FL algorithms.
AutoLugano: A Deep Learning Framework for Fully Automated Lymphoma Segmentation and Lugano Staging on FDG-PET/CT
Pan, Boyang, Zhang, Zeyu, Meng, Hongyu, Cui, Bin, Zhang, Yingying, Hou, Wenli, Li, Junhao, Zhong, Langdi, Chen, Xiaoxiao, Xu, Xiaoyu, Zuo, Changjin, Cheng, Chao, Gong, Nan-Jie
Purpose: To develop a fully automated deep learning system, AutoLugano, for end-to-end lymphoma classification by performing lesion segmentation, anatomical localization, and automated Lugano staging from baseline FDG-PET/CT scans. Methods: The AutoLugano system processes baseline FDG-PET/CT scans through three sequential modules:(1) Anatomy-Informed Lesion Segmentation, a 3D nnU-Net model, trained on multi-channel inputs, performs automated lesion detection (2) Atlas-based Anatomical Localization, which leverages the TotalSegmentator toolkit to map segmented lesions to 21 predefined lymph node regions using deterministic anatomical rules; and (3) Automated Lugano Staging, where the spatial distribution of involved regions is translated into Lugano stages and therapeutic groups (Limited vs. Advanced Stage).The system was trained on the public autoPET dataset (n=1,007) and externally validated on an independent cohort of 67 patients. Performance was assessed using accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, F1-scorefor regional involvement detection and staging agreement. Results: On the external validation set, the proposed model demonstrated robust performance, achieving an overall accuracy of 88.31%, sensitivity of 74.47%, Specificity of 94.21% and an F1-score of 80.80% for regional involvement detection,outperforming baseline models. Most notably, for the critical clinical task of therapeutic stratification (Limited vs. Advanced Stage), the system achieved a high accuracy of 85.07%, with a specificity of 90.48% and a sensitivity of 82.61%.Conclusion: AutoLugano represents the first fully automated, end-to-end pipeline that translates a single baseline FDG-PET/CT scan into a complete Lugano stage. This study demonstrates its strong potential to assist in initial staging, treatment stratification, and supporting clinical decision-making.
Less is More: Non-uniform Road Segments are Efficient for Bus Arrival Prediction
Huang, Zhen, Deng, Jiaxin, Xu, Jiayu, Pang, Junbiao, Yu, Haitao
Abstract--In bus arrival time prediction, the process of organizing road infrastructure network data into homogeneous entities is known as segmentation. Segmenting a road network is widely recognized as the first and most critical step in developing an arrival time prediction system, particularly for auto-regressive-based approaches. Traditional methods typically employ a uniform segmentation strategy, which fails to account for varying physical constraints along roads, such as road conditions, intersections, and points of interest, thereby limiting prediction efficiency. In this paper, we propose a Reinforcement Learning (RL)-based approach to efficiently and adaptively learn non-uniform road segments for arrival time prediction. Our method decouples the prediction process into two stages: 1) Nonuniform road segments are extracted based on their impact scores using the proposed RL framework; and 2) A linear prediction model is applied to the selected segments to make predictions. This method ensures optimal segment selection while maintaining computational efficiency, offering a significant improvement over traditional uniform approaches. Furthermore, our experimental results suggest that the linear approach can even achieve better performance than more complex methods. Extensive experiments demonstrate the superiority of the proposed method, which not only enhances efficiency but also improves learning performance on large-scale benchmarks.
MASim: Multilingual Agent-Based Simulation for Social Science
Zhang, Xuan, Zhang, Wenxuan, Wang, Anxu, Ng, See-Kiong, Deng, Yang
Multi-agent role-playing has recently shown promise for studying social behavior with language agents, but existing simulations are mostly monolingual and fail to model cross-lingual interaction, an essential property of real societies. We introduce MASim, the first multilingual agent-based simulation framework that supports multi-turn interaction among generative agents with diverse sociolinguistic profiles. MASim offers two key analyses: (i) global public opinion modeling, by simulating how attitudes toward open-domain hypotheses evolve across languages and cultures, and (ii) media influence and information diffusion, via autonomous news agents that dynamically generate content and shape user behavior. To instantiate simulations, we construct the MAPS benchmark, which combines survey questions and demographic personas drawn from global population distributions. Experiments on calibration, sensitivity, consistency, and cultural case studies show that MASim reproduces sociocultural phenomena and highlights the importance of multilingual simulation for scalable, controlled computational social science.
UniDiff: A Unified Diffusion Framework for Multimodal Time Series Forecasting
Zhang, Da, Li, Bingyu, Zhao, Zhuyuan, Gao, Junyu, Nie, Feiping, Li, Xuelong
As multimodal data proliferates across diverse real-world applications, leveraging heterogeneous information such as texts and timestamps for accurate time series forecasting (TSF) has become a critical challenge. While diffusion models demonstrate exceptional performance in generation tasks, their application to TSF remains largely confined to modeling single-modality numerical sequences, overlooking the abundant cross-modal signals inherent in complex heterogeneous data. To address this gap, we propose UniDiff, a unified diffusion framework for multimodal time series forecasting. To process the numerical sequence, our framework first tokenizes the time series into patches, preserving local temporal dynamics by mapping each patch to an embedding space via a lightweight MLP. At its core lies a unified and parallel fusion module, where a single cross-attention mechanism adaptively weighs and integrates structural information from timestamps and semantic context from texts in one step, enabling a flexible and efficient interplay between modalities. Furthermore, we introduce a novel classifier-free guidance mechanism designed for multi-source conditioning, allowing for decoupled control over the guidance strength of textual and temporal information during inference, which significantly enhances model robustness. Extensive experiments on real-world benchmark datasets across eight domains demonstrate that the proposed UniDiff model achieves state-of-the-art performance.
PICKT: Practical Interlinked Concept Knowledge Tracing for Personalized Learning using Knowledge Map Concept Relations
Lee, Wonbeen, Lee, Channyoung, Sohn, Junho, Cho, Hansam
With the recent surge in personalized learning, Intelligent Tutoring Systems (ITS) that can accurately track students' individual knowledge states and provide tailored learning paths based on this information are in demand as an essential task. This paper focuses on the core technology of Knowledge Tracing (KT) models that analyze students' sequences of interactions to predict their knowledge acquisition levels. However, existing KT models suffer from limitations such as restricted input data formats, cold start problems arising with new student enrollment or new question addition, and insufficient stability in real-world service environments. To overcome these limitations, a Practical Interlinked Concept Knowledge Tracing (PICKT) model that can effectively process multiple types of input data is proposed. Specifically, a knowledge map structures the relationships among concepts considering the question and concept text information, thereby enabling effective knowledge tracing even in cold start situations. Experiments reflecting real operational environments demonstrated the model's excellent performance and practicality. The main contributions of this research are as follows. First, a model architecture that effectively utilizes diverse data formats is presented. Second, significant performance improvements are achieved over existing models for two core cold start challenges: new student enrollment and new question addition. Third, the model's stability and practicality are validated through delicate experimental design, enhancing its applicability in real-world product environments. This provides a crucial theoretical and technical foundation for the practical implementation of next-generation ITS.
ContextualSHAP : Enhancing SHAP Explanations Through Contextual Language Generation
Dwiyanti, Latifa, Wibisono, Sergio Ryan, Nambo, Hidetaka
Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) has become an increasingly important area of research, particularly as machine learning models are deployed in high-stakes domains. Among various XAI approaches, SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) has gained prominence due to its ability to provide both global and local explanations across different machine learning models. While SHAP effectively visualizes feature importance, it often lacks contextual explanations that are meaningful for end-users, especially those without technical backgrounds. To address this gap, we propose a Python package that extends SHAP by integrating it with a large language model (LLM), specifically OpenAI's GPT, to generate contextualized textual explanations. This integration is guided by user-defined parameters (such as feature aliases, descriptions, and additional background) to tailor the explanation to both the model context and the user perspective. We hypothesize that this enhancement can improve the perceived understandability of SHAP explanations. To evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed package, we applied it in a healthcare-related case study and conducted user evaluations involving real end-users. The results, based on Likert-scale surveys and follow-up interviews, indicate that the generated explanations were perceived as more understandable and contextually appropriate compared to visual-only outputs. While the findings are preliminary, they suggest that combining visualization with contextualized text may support more user-friendly and trustworthy model explanations.
SPACE: Noise Contrastive Estimation Stabilizes Self-Play Fine-Tuning for Large Language Models
Wang, Yibo, Chen, Qing-Guo, Xu, Zhao, Luo, Weihua, Zhang, Kaifu, Zhang, Lijun
Self-play fine-tuning has demonstrated promising abilities in adapting large language models (LLMs) to downstream tasks with limited real-world data. The basic principle is to iteratively refine the model with real samples and synthetic ones generated from itself. However, the existing methods primarily focus on the relative gaps between the rewards for two types of data, neglecting their absolute values. Through theoretical analysis, we identify that the gap-based methods suffer from unstable evolution, due to the potentially degenerated objectives. To address this limitation, we introduce a novel self-play fine-tuning method, namely Self-PlAy via Noise Contrastive Estimation (SPACE), which leverages noise contrastive estimation to capture the real-world data distribution. Specifically, SPACE treats synthetic samples as auxiliary components, and discriminates them from the real ones in a binary classification manner. As a result, SPACE independently optimizes the absolute reward values for each type of data, ensuring a consistently meaningful objective and thereby avoiding the instability issue. Theoretically, we show that the optimal solution of the objective in SPACE aligns with the underlying distribution of real-world data, and SPACE guarantees a provably stable convergence to the optimal distribution. Empirically, we show that SPACE significantly improves the performance of LLMs over various tasks, and outperforms supervised fine-tuning that employs much more real-world samples. Compared to gap-based self-play fine-tuning methods, SPACE exhibits remarkable superiority and stable evolution.