Individualized treatment regimes (ITRs) aim to improve clinical outcomes by assigning treatment based on patient-specific characteristics. However, existing methods often struggle with high-dimensional covariates, limiting accuracy, interpretability, and real-world applicability. We propose a novel sufficient dimension reduction approach that directly targets the contrast between potential outcomes and identifies a low-dimensional subspace of the covariates capturing treatment effect heterogeneity. This reduced representation enables more accurate estimation of optimal ITRs through outcome-weighted learning. To accommodate observational data, our method incorporates kernel-based covariate balancing, allowing treatment assignment to depend on the full covariate set and avoiding the restrictive assumption that the subspace sufficient for modeling heterogeneous treatment effects is also sufficient for confounding adjustment. We show that the proposed method achieves universal consistency, i.e., its risk converges to the Bayes risk, under mild regularity conditions. We demonstrate its finite sample performance through simulations and an analysis of intensive care unit sepsis patient data to determine who should receive transthoracic echocardiography.

Score-based diffusion models have become a powerful framework for generative modeling, with score estimation as a central statistical bottleneck. Existing guarantees for score estimation largely focus on light-tailed targets or rely on restrictive assumptions such as compact support, which are often violated by heavy-tailed data in practice. In this work, we study conventional (Gaussian) score-based diffusion models when the target distribution is heavy-tailed and belongs to a Sobolev class with smoothness parameter $β>0$. We consider both exponential and polynomial tail decay, indexed by a tail parameter $γ$. Using kernel density estimation, we derive sharp minimax rates for score estimation, revealing a qualitative dichotomy: under exponential tails, the rate matches the light-tailed case up to polylogarithmic factors, whereas under polynomial tails the rate depends explicitly on $γ$. We further provide sampling guarantees for the associated continuous reverse dynamics. In total variation, the generated distribution converges at the minimax optimal rate $n^{-β/(2β+d)}$ under exponential tails (up to logarithmic factors), and at a $γ$-dependent rate under polynomial tails. Whether the latter sampling rate is minimax optimal remains an open question. These results characterize the statistical limits of score estimation and the resulting sampling accuracy for heavy-tailed targets, extending diffusion theory beyond the light-tailed setting.

A central problem in machine learning theory is to characterize how learning dynamics select particular solutions among the many compatible with the training objective, a phenomenon, called implicit bias, which remains only partially characterized. In the present work, we identify a general mechanism, in terms of an explicit geometric correction of the learning dynamics, for the emergence of implicit biases, arising from the interaction between continuous symmetries in the model's parametrization and stochasticity in the optimization process. Our viewpoint is constructive in two complementary directions: given model symmetries, one can derive the implicit bias they induce; conversely, one can inverse-design a wide class of different implicit biases by computing specific redundant parameterizations. More precisely, we show that, when the dynamics is expressed in the quotient space obtained by factoring out the symmetry group of the parameterization, the resulting stochastic differential equation gains a closed form geometric correction in the stationary distribution of the optimizer dynamics favoring orbits with small local volume. We compute the resulting symmetry induced bias for a range of architectures, showing how several well known results fit into a single unified framework. The approach also provides a practical methodology for deriving implicit biases in new settings, and it yields concrete, testable predictions that we confirm by numerical simulations on toy models trained on synthetic data, leaving more complex scenarios for future work. Finally, we test the implicit bias inverse-design procedure in notable cases, including biases toward sparsity in linear features or in spectral properties of the model parameters.

Large language models (LLMs) such as GPT, Claude, Gemini, and Grok have been deeply integrated into our daily life. They now support a wide range of tasks -- from dialogue and email drafting to assisting with teaching and coding, serving as search engines, and much more. However, their ability to produce highly human-like text raises serious concerns, including the spread of fake news, the generation of misleading governmental reports, and academic misconduct. To address this practical problem, we train a classifier to determine whether a piece of text is authored by an LLM or a human. Our detector is deployed on an online CPU-based platform https://huggingface.co/spaces/stats-powered-ai/StatDetectLLM, and contains three novelties over existing detectors: (i) it does not rely on auxiliary information, such as watermarks or knowledge of the specific LLM used to generate the text; (ii) it more effectively distinguishes between human- and LLM-authored text; and (iii) it enables statistical inference, which is largely absent in the current literature. Empirically, our classifier achieves higher classification accuracy compared to existing detectors, while maintaining type-I error control, high statistical power, and computational efficiency.

Driven by the right to be forgotten (RTBF), machine unlearning has become an essential requirement for privacy-preserving machine learning. However, its realization in decentralized federated learning (DFL) remains largely unexplored. In DFL, clients exchange local updates only with neighbors, causing model information to propagate and mix across the network. As a result, when a client requests data deletion, its influence is implicitly embedded throughout the system, making removal difficult without centralized coordination. We propose a novel certified unlearning framework for DFL based on Newton-style updates. Our approach first quantifies how a client's data influence propagates during training. Leveraging curvature information of the loss with respect to the target data, we then construct corrective updates using Newton-style approximations. To ensure scalability, we approximate second-order information via Fisher information matrices. The resulting updates are perturbed with calibrated noise and broadcast through the network to eliminate residual influence across clients. We theoretically prove that our approach satisfies the formal definition of certified unlearning, ensuring that the unlearned model is difficult to distinguish from a retrained model without the deleted data. We also establish utility bounds showing that the unlearned model remains close to retraining from scratch. Extensive experiments across diverse decentralized settings demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of our framework.

Supporting Go/No-Go decisions prior to launch requires assessing real-time telemetry data against redline limits established during the design qualification phase. Family data from ground testing or previous flights is commonly used to detect initiating failure modes and their timing; however, this approach relies heavily on engineering judgment and is more error-prone for new launch vehicles. To address these limitations, we utilize Long-Term Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks for supervised classification of time-series anomalies. Although, initial training labels derived from simulated anomaly data may be suboptimal due to variations in anomaly strength, anomaly settling times, and other factors. In this work, we propose a novel statistical detector based on the Mahalanobis distance and forward-backward detection fractions to adjust the supervised training labels. We demonstrate our method on digital twin simulations of a ground-stage propulsion system with 20.8 minutes of operation per trial and O(10^8) training timesteps. The statistical data relabeling improved precision and recall of the LSTM classifier by 7% and 22% respectively.

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) continues to be the major cause of death globally, calling for predictive models that not only handle diverse and high-dimensional biomedical signals but also maintain interpretability and privacy. We create a single multimodal learning framework that integrates cross modal transformers with graph neural networks and causal representation learning to measure personalized CVD risk. The model combines genomic variation, cardiac MRI, ECG waveforms, wearable streams, and structured EHR data to predict risk while also implementing causal invariance constraints across different clinical subpopulations. To maintain transparency, we employ SHAP based feature attribution, counterfactual explanations and causal latent alignment for understandable risk factors. Besides, we position the design in a federated, privacy, preserving optimization protocol and establish rules for convergence, calibration and uncertainty quantification under distributional shift. Experimental studies based on large-scale biobank and multi institutional datasets reveal state discrimination and robustness, exhibiting fair performance across demographic strata and clinically distinct cohorts. This study paves the way for a principled approach to clinically trustworthy, interpretable and privacy respecting CVD prediction at the population level.

U.K.'s Starmer escalates threats against X, calls Grok'shameful' U.K.'s prime minister escalated threats against Elon Musk's X, vowing to enforce a law that bans the sexualization of people's images without consent and calling such content generated by Grok disgusting and shameful. U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer escalated his threats against Elon Musk's X on Monday, vowing to enforce a law that banned the sexualization of people's images without their consent and calling such content generated by Grok "disgusting and shameful." From this week, the government will enforce the offense established in last year's Data Act, which made the creation of nonconsensual intimate images illegal. Starmer told members of Parliament on Monday, "if X cannot control Grok, we will -- and we'll do it fast because if you profit from harm and abuse, you lose the right to self regulate." Starmer accused X of protecting "abusive users" instead of the women and children whose images have been exploited, describing it as a "total distortion of priorities."

The UK government is threatening to ban Elon Musk's X platform after Technology Secretary Liz Kendall confirmed an investigation into AI-generated sexual abuse images.

FBI Agent's Sworn Testimony Contradicts Claims ICE's Jonathan Ross Made Under Oath The testimony also calls into question whether Ross failed to follow his training during the incident in which he reportedly shot and killed Minnesota citizen Renee Good. In testimony last month in federal court in Minnesota, FBI special agent Bernardo Medellin appeared to directly contradict a claim that ICE agent Jonathan Ross made under oath about whether a man they were trying to detain had asked to speak to his attorney. Medellin's testimony, which details federal training for interactions with drivers, also calls into question whether Ross followed his training during the interaction that led to the shooting and killing of Renee Nicole Good, a 37-year-old mother, last week. Ross has been identified by multiple media outlets as the shooter; while the Trump administration has declined to confirm those reports, details about the shooter shared by Vice President JD Vance match details of Ross' biography. As WIRED previously reported, in December Ross testified that last June he led a team seeking to apprehend a man named Roberto Carlos Muñoz-Guatemala, who had an administrative warrant out for being in the US without authorization.