We consider a set of probabilistic functions of some input variables as a representation of the inputs. We present bounds on how informative a representation is about input data. We extend these bounds to hierarchical representations so that we can quantify the contribution of each layer towards capturing the information in the original data. The special form of these bounds leads to a simple, bottom-up optimization procedure to construct hierarchical representations that are also maximally informative about the data. This optimization has linear computational complexity and constant sample complexity in the number of variables. These results establish a new approach to unsupervised learning of deep representations that is both principled and practical. We demonstrate the usefulness of the approach on both synthetic and real-world data.

To use language one must be able to make inferences about the information which language conveys. This is apparent in many ways. For one thing, many of the processes which we typically consider "linguistic" require inference making. For example, structural disambiguation: (1) Waiter, I would like spaghetti with meat sauce and wine. You would not expect to be served a bowl of spaghetti floating in meat sauce and wine. That is, you would expect the meal represented by structure (2) rather than that represented by (3).

The popularity of online shopping has contributed to the development of comparison shopping agents (CSAs) aiming to facilitate buyers' ability to compare prices of online stores for any desired product. Furthermore, the plethora of CSAs in today's markets enables buyers to query more than a single CSA when shopping, thus expanding even further the list of sellers whose prices they obtain. This potentially decreases the chance of a purchase based on the prices outputted as a result of any single query, and consequently decreases each CSAs' expected revenue per-query. Obviously, a CSA can improve its competence in such settings by acquiring more sellers' prices, potentially resulting in a more attractive ``best price''. In this paper we suggest a complementary approach that improves the attractiveness of a CSA by presenting the prices to the user in a specific intelligent manner, which is based on known cognitive-biases.The advantage of this approach is its ability to affect the buyer's tendency to terminate her search for a better price, hence avoid querying further CSAs, without having the CSA spend any of its resources on finding better prices to present.The effectiveness of our method is demonstrated using real data, collected from four CSAs for five products. Our experiments with people confirm that the suggested method effectively influence people in a way that is highly advantageous to the CSA.

Time series of counts arise in a variety of forecasting applications, for which traditional models are generally inappropriate. This paper introduces a hierarchical Bayesian formulation applicable to count time series that can easily account for explanatory variables and share statistical strength across groups of related time series. We derive an efficient approximate inference technique, and illustrate its performance on a number of datasets from supply chain planning.

The recommendation of additional shopping items that are potentially interesting for the customer has become a standard feature of modern online stores. In academia, research on recommender systems (RS) is mostly centered around approaches that rely on explicit item ratings and long-term user profiles. In practical environments, however, such rating information is often very sparse and for a large fraction of the users very little is known about their preferences. Furthermore, in particular when the shop offers products from a variety of categories, the decision of what should be recommended can strongly depend on the user's current short-term interests and the navigational context. In this paper, we report the results of an initial experimental analysis evaluating the predictive accuracy of different contextualized and non-contextualized recommendation strategies and discuss the question of appropriate experimental designs for such types of evaluations. To that purpose, we introduce a parameterizable protocol that supports session-specific accuracy measurements. Our analysis, which was based on log data obtained from a large online retailer for clothing and lifestyle products, shows that even a comparably simple contextual post-processing approach based on product features can leverage short-term user interests to increase the accuracy of the recommendations.

The blooming of comparison shopping agents (CSAs) in recent years enables buyers in today's markets to query more than a single CSA while shopping, thus substantially expanding the list of sellers whose prices they obtain. From the individual CSA point of view, however, the multi-CSAs querying is definitely non-favorable as most of today's CSAs benefit depends on payments they receive from sellers upon transferring buyers to their websites (and making a purchase). The most straightforward way for the CSA to improve its competence is through spending more resources on getting more sellers' prices, potentially resulting in a more attractive ``best price''. In this paper we suggest a complementary approach that improves the attractiveness of the best price returned to the buyer without having to extend the CSAs' price database. This approach, which we term ``selective price disclosure'' relies on removing some of the prices known to the CSA from the list of results returned to the buyer. The advantage of this approach is in the ability to affect the buyer's beliefs regarding the probability of obtaining more attractive prices if querying additional CSAs. The paper presents two methods for choosing the subset of prices to be presented to a fully-rational buyer, attempting to overcome the computational complexity associated with evaluating all possible subsets. The effectiveness and efficiency of the methods are demonstrated using real data, collected from five CSAs for four products. Furthermore, since people are known to have an inherently bounded rationality, the two methods are also evaluated with human buyers, demonstrating that selective price-disclosing can be highly effective with people, however the subset of prices that needs to be used should be extracted in a different (and more simplistic) manner.

In this report a computational study of ConceptNet 4 is performed using tools from the field of network analysis. Part I describes the process of extracting the data from the SQL database that is available online, as well as how the closure of the input among the assertions in the English language is computed. This part also performs a validation of the input as well as checks for the consistency of the entire database. Part II investigates the structural properties of ConceptNet 4. Different graphs are induced from the knowledge base by fixing different parameters. The degrees and the degree distributions are examined, the number and sizes of connected components, the transitivity and clustering coefficient, the cores, information related to shortest paths in the graphs, and cliques. Part III investigates non-overlapping, as well as overlapping communities that are found in ConceptNet 4. Finally, Part IV describes an investigation on rules.

Often models for understanding the impact of management practices on retail performance are developed under the assumption of stability, equilibrium and linearity, whereas retail operations are considered in reality to be dynamic, non-linear and complex. Alternatively, discrete event and agent-based modelling are approaches that allow the development of simulation models of heterogeneous non-equilibrium systems for testing out different scenarios. When developing simulation models one has to abstract and simplify from the real world, which means that one has to try and capture the 'essence' of the system required for developing a representation of the mechanisms that drive the progression in the real system. Simulation models can be developed at different levels of abstraction. To know the appropriate level of abstraction for a specific application is often more of an art than a science. We have developed a retail branch simulation model to investigate which level of model accuracy is required for such a model to obtain meaningful results for practitioners.

In this paper, we investigate output accuracy for a Discrete Event Simulation (DES) model and Agent Based Simulation (ABS) model. The purpose of this investigation is to find out which of these simulation techniques is the best one for modelling human reactive behaviour in the retail sector. In order to study the output accuracy in both models, we have carried out a validation experiment in which we compared the results from our simulation models to the performance of a real system. Our experiment was carried out using a large UK department store as a case study. We had to determine an efficient implementation of management policy in the store's fitting room using DES and ABS. Overall, we have found that both simulation models were a good representation of the real system when modelling human reactive behaviour.

Intelligent agents offer a new and exciting way of understanding the world of work. Agent-Based Simulation (ABS), one way of using intelligent agents, carries great potential for progressing our understanding of management practices and how they link to retail performance. We have developed simulation models based on research by a multi-disciplinary team of economists, work psychologists and computer scientists. We will discuss our experiences of implementing these concepts working with a well-known retail department store. There is no doubt that management practices are linked to the performance of an organisation (Reynolds et al., 2005; Wall & Wood, 2005). Best practices have been developed, but when it comes down to the actual application of these guidelines considerable ambiguity remains regarding their effectiveness within particular contexts (Siebers et al., forthcoming a). Most Operational Research (OR) methods can only be used as analysis tools once management practices have been implemented. Often they are not very useful for giving answers to speculative 'what-if' questions, particularly when one is interested in the development of the system over time rather than just the state of the system at a certain point in time. Simulation can be used to analyse the operation of dynamic and stochastic systems. ABS is particularly useful when complex interactions between system entities exist, such as autonomous decision making or negotiation. In an ABS model the researcher explicitly describes the decision process of simulated actors at the micro level. Structures emerge at the macro level as a result of the actions of the agents and their interactions with other agents and the environment. 3 We will show how ABS experiments can deal with testing and optimising management practices such as training, empowerment or teamwork. Hence, questions such as "will staff setting their own break times improve performance?" can be investigated.