Government
CausalKANs: interpretable treatment effect estimation with Kolmogorov-Arnold networks
Almodóvar, Alejandro, Apellániz, Patricia A., Zazo, Santiago, Parras, Juan
Deep neural networks achieve state-of-the-art performance in estimating heterogeneous treatment effects, but their opacity limits trust and adoption in sensitive domains such as medicine, economics, and public policy. Building on well-established and high-performing causal neural architectures, we propose causalKANs, a framework that transforms neural estimators of conditional average treatment effects (CATEs) into Kolmogorov--Arnold Networks (KANs). By incorporating pruning and symbolic simplification, causalKANs yields interpretable closed-form formulas while preserving predictive accuracy. Experiments on benchmark datasets demonstrate that causalKANs perform on par with neural baselines in CATE error metrics, and that even simple KAN variants achieve competitive performance, offering a favorable accuracy--interpretability trade-off. By combining reliability with analytic accessibility, causalKANs provide auditable estimators supported by closed-form expressions and interpretable plots, enabling trustworthy individualized decision-making in high-stakes settings. We release the code for reproducibility at https://github.com/aalmodovares/causalkans .
Multi-modal Bayesian Neural Network Surrogates with Conjugate Last-Layer Estimation
Taylor, Ian, Mueller, Juliane, Bessac, Julie
As data collection and simulation capabilities advance, multi-modal learning, the task of learning from multiple modalities and sources of data, is becoming an increasingly important area of research. Surrogate models that learn from data of multiple auxiliary modalities to support the modeling of a highly expensive quantity of interest have the potential to aid outer loop applications such as optimization, inverse problems, or sensitivity analyses when multi-modal data are available. We develop two multi-modal Bayesian neural network surrogate models and leverage conditionally conjugate distributions in the last layer to estimate model parameters using stochastic variational inference (SVI). We provide a method to perform this conjugate SVI estimation in the presence of partially missing observations. We demonstrate improved prediction accuracy and uncertainty quantification compared to uni-modal surrogate models for both scalar and time series data.
A Systematic Review of Conformal Inference Procedures for Treatment Effect Estimation: Methods and Challenges
Memmesheimer, Pascal, Heuveline, Vincent, Hesser, Jürgen
Treatment effect estimation is essential for informed decision-making in many fields such as healthcare, economics, and public policy. While flexible machine learning models have been widely applied for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects, quantifying the inherent uncertainty of their point predictions remains an issue. Recent advancements in conformal prediction address this limitation by allowing for inexpensive computation, as well as distribution shifts, while still providing frequentist, finite-sample coverage guarantees under minimal assumptions for any point-predictor model. This advancement holds significant potential for improving decision-making in especially high-stakes environments. In this work, we perform a systematic review regarding conformal prediction methods for treatment effect estimation and provide for both the necessary theoretical background. Through a systematic filtering process, we select and analyze eleven key papers, identifying and describing current state-of-the-art methods in this area. Based on our findings, we propose directions for future research.
GenUQ: Predictive Uncertainty Estimates via Generative Hyper-Networks
Yen, Tian Yu, Jones, Reese E., Patel, Ravi G.
Operator learning is a recently developed generalization of regression to mappings between functions. It promises to drastically reduce expensive numerical integration of PDEs to fast evaluations of mappings between functional states of a system, i.e., surrogate and reduced-order modeling. Operator learning has already found applications in several areas such as modeling sea ice, combustion, and atmospheric physics. Recent approaches towards integrating uncertainty quantification into the operator models have relied on likelihood based methods to infer parameter distributions from noisy data. However, stochastic operators may yield actions from which a likelihood is difficult or impossible to construct. In this paper, we introduce, GenUQ, a measure-theoretic approach to UQ that avoids constructing a likelihood by introducing a generative hyper-network model that produces parameter distributions consistent with observed data. We demonstrate that GenUQ outperforms other UQ methods in three example problems, recovering a manufactured operator, learning the solution operator to a stochastic elliptic PDE, and modeling the failure location of porous steel under tension.
PhenoMoler: Phenotype-Guided Molecular Optimization via Chemistry Large Language Model
Current molecular generative models primarily focus on improving drug-target binding affinity and specificity, often neglecting the system-level phenotypic effects elicited by compounds. Transcriptional profiles, as molecule-level readouts of drug-induced phenotypic shifts, offer a powerful opportunity to guide molecular design in a phenotype-aware manner. We present PhenoMoler, a phenotype-guided molecular generation framework that integrates a chemistry large language model with expression profiles to enable biologically informed drug design. By conditioning the generation on drug-induced differential expression signatures, PhenoMoler explicitly links transcriptional responses to chemical structure. By selectively masking and reconstructing specific substructures-scaffolds, side chains, or linkers-PhenoMoler supports fine-grained, controllable molecular optimization. Extensive experiments demonstrate that PhenoMoler generates chemically valid, novel, and diverse molecules aligned with desired phenotypic profiles. Compared to FDA-approved drugs, the generated compounds exhibit comparable or enhanced drug-likeness (QED), optimized physicochemical properties, and superior binding affinity to key cancer targets. These findings highlight PhenoMoler's potential for phenotype-guided and structure-controllable molecular optimization.
Towards mitigating information leakage when evaluating safety monitors
Boxo, Gerard, Neelappa, Aman, Raval, Shivam
White box monitors that analyze model internals offer promising advantages for detecting potentially harmful behaviors in large language models, including lower computational costs and integration into layered defense systems.However, training and evaluating these monitors requires response exemplars that exhibit the target behaviors, typically elicited through prompting or fine-tuning. This presents a challenge when the information used to elicit behaviors inevitably leaks into the data that monitors ingest, inflating their effectiveness. We present a systematic framework for evaluating a monitor's performance in terms of its ability to detect genuine model behavior rather than superficial elicitation artifacts. Furthermore, we propose three novel strategies to evaluate the monitor: content filtering (removing deception-related text from inputs), score filtering (aggregating only over task-relevant tokens), and prompt distilled fine-tuned model organisms (models trained to exhibit deceptive behavior without explicit prompting). Using deception detection as a representative case study, we identify two forms of leakage that inflate monitor performance: elicitation leakage from prompts that explicitly request harmful behavior, and reasoning leakage from models that verbalize their deceptive actions. Through experiments on multiple deception benchmarks, we apply our proposed mitigation strategies and measure performance retention. Our evaluation of the monitors reveal three crucial findings: (1) Content filtering is a good mitigation strategy that allows for a smooth removal of elicitation signal and can decrease probe AUROC by 30\% (2) Score filtering was found to reduce AUROC by 15\% but is not as straightforward to attribute to (3) A finetuned model organism improves monitor evaluations but reduces their performance by upto 40\%, even when re-trained.
Cognitive Load Limits in Large Language Models: Benchmarking Multi-Hop Reasoning
The scaling of Large Language Models (LLMs) has exposed a critical gap between their performance on static benchmarks and their fragility in dynamic, information-rich environments. While models excel at isolated tasks, the computational limits that govern their reasoning under cognitive load remain poorly understood. In this work, we introduce a formal theory of computational cognitive load, positing that extraneous, task-irrelevant information (Context Saturation) and interference from task-switching (Attentional Residue) are key mechanisms that degrade performance. We designed the Interleaved Cognitive Evaluation (ICE), a deconfounded benchmark to systematically manipulate these load factors on challenging multi-hop reasoning tasks. A comprehensive study (N = 10 replications per item across 200 questions) revealed significant performance variations across five instruction-tuned models. Smaller open-source architectures (Llama-3-8B-Instruct, Mistral-7B-Instruct-v0.2) exhibited baseline brittleness, achieving 0% accuracy (SEM = 0.0) across all conditions, including clean controls, on this high-intrinsic-load task. In contrast, Gemini-2.0-Flash-001 showed partial resilience, achieving 85% accuracy in control conditions, with a statistically significant degradation under context saturation ($β= -0.003$ per % load, $p < 0.001$). These findings provide preliminary evidence that cognitive load is a key contributor to reasoning failures, supporting theories of hallucination-as-guessing under uncertainty. We conclude that dynamic, cognitive-aware stress testing, as exemplified by the ICE benchmark, is essential for evaluating the true resilience and safety of advanced AI systems.
Conflict-Aware Soft Prompting for Retrieval-Augmented Generation
Choi, Eunseong, Park, June, Lee, Hyeri, Lee, Jongwuk
Retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) enhances the capabilities of large language models (LLMs) by incorporating external knowledge into their input prompts. However, when the retrieved context contradicts the LLM's parametric knowledge, it often fails to resolve the conflict between incorrect external context and correct parametric knowledge, known as context-memory conflict. To tackle this problem, we introduce Conflict-Aware REtrieval-Augmented Generation (CARE), consisting of a context assessor and a base LLM. The context assessor encodes compact memory token embeddings from raw context tokens. Through grounded/adversarial soft prompting, the context assessor is trained to discern unreliable context and capture a guidance signal that directs reasoning toward the more reliable knowledge source. Extensive experiments show that CARE effectively mitigates context-memory conflicts, leading to an average performance gain of 5.0\% on QA and fact-checking benchmarks, establishing a promising direction for trustworthy and adaptive RAG systems.
Persona-Augmented Benchmarking: Evaluating LLMs Across Diverse Writing Styles
Truong, Kimberly Le, Fogliato, Riccardo, Heidari, Hoda, Wu, Zhiwei Steven
Current benchmarks for evaluating Large Language Models (LLMs) often do not exhibit enough writing style diversity, with many adhering primarily to standardized conventions. Such benchmarks do not fully capture the rich variety of communication patterns exhibited by humans. Thus, it is possible that LLMs, which are optimized on these benchmarks, may demonstrate brittle performance when faced with "non-standard" input. In this work, we test this hypothesis by rewriting evaluation prompts using persona-based LLM prompting, a low-cost method to emulate diverse writing styles. Our results show that, even with identical semantic content, variations in writing style and prompt formatting significantly impact the estimated performance of the LLM under evaluation. Notably, we identify distinct writing styles that consistently trigger either low or high performance across a range of models and tasks, irrespective of model family, size, and recency. Our work offers a scalable approach to augment existing benchmarks, improving the external validity of the assessments they provide for measuring LLM performance across linguistic variations.
Neural-Network solver of ideal MHD equilibria
Thun, Timo, Merlo, Andrea, Conlin, Rory, Panici, Dario, Böckenhoff, Daniel
We present a novel approach to compute three-dimensional Magnetohydrodynamic equilibria by parametrizing Fourier modes with artificial neural networks and compare it to equilibria computed by conventional solvers. The full nonlinear global force residual across the volume in real space is then minimized with first order optimizers. Already,we observe competitive computational cost to arrive at the same minimum residuals computed by existing codes. With increased computational cost,lower minima of the residual are achieved by the neural networks,establishing a new lower bound for the force residual. We use minimally complex neural networks,and we expect significant improvements for solving not only single equilibria with neural networks,but also for computing neural network models valid over continuous distributions of equilibria.