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Interpreting deep learning-based stellar mass estimation via causal analysis and mutual information decomposition
Zhang, Wei, Lin, Qiufan, Ting, Yuan-Sen, Chen, Shupei, Ruan, Hengxin, Li, Song, Wang, Yifan
End-to-end deep learning models fed with multi-band galaxy images are powerful data-driven tools used to estimate galaxy physical properties in the absence of spectroscopy. However, due to a lack of interpretability and the associational nature of such models, it is difficult to understand how the information that is included in addition to integrated photometry (e.g., morphology) contributes to the estimation task. Improving our understanding in this field would enable further advances into unraveling the physical connections among galaxy properties and optimizing data exploitation. Therefore, our work is aimed at interpreting the deep learning-based estimation of stellar mass via two interpretability techniques: causal analysis and mutual information decomposition. The former reveals the causal paths between multiple variables beyond nondirectional statistical associations, while the latter quantifies the multicomponent contributions (i.e., redundant, unique, and synergistic) of different input data to the stellar mass estimation. Using data from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) and the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE), we obtained meaningful results that provide physical interpretations for image-based models. Our work demonstrates the gains from combining deep learning with interpretability techniques, and holds promise in promoting more data-driven astrophysical research (e.g., astrophysical parameter estimations and investigations on complex multivariate physical processes).
ShortageSim: Simulating Drug Shortages under Information Asymmetry
Cui, Mingxuan, Jiang, Yilan, Zhou, Duo, Qian, Cheng, Zhang, Yuji, Wang, Qiong
Drug shortages pose critical risks to patient care and healthcare systems worldwide, yet the effectiveness of regulatory interventions remains poorly understood due to information asymmetries in pharmaceutical supply chains. We propose \textbf{ShortageSim}, addresses this challenge by providing the first simulation framework that evaluates the impact of regulatory interventions on competition dynamics under information asymmetry. Using Large Language Model (LLM)-based agents, the framework models the strategic decisions of drug manufacturers and institutional buyers, in response to shortage alerts given by the regulatory agency. Unlike traditional game theory models that assume perfect rationality and complete information, ShortageSim simulates heterogeneous interpretations on regulatory announcements and the resulting decisions. Experiments on self-processed dataset of historical shortage events show that ShortageSim reduces the resolution lag for production disruption cases by up to 84\%, achieving closer alignment to real-world trajectories than the zero-shot baseline. Our framework confirms the effect of regulatory alert in addressing shortages and introduces a new method for understanding competition in multi-stage environments under uncertainty. We open-source ShortageSim and a dataset of 2,925 FDA shortage events, providing a novel framework for future research on policy design and testing in supply chains under information asymmetry.
Counterfactual Simulatability of LLM Explanations for Generation Tasks
Limpijankit, Marvin, Chen, Yanda, Subbiah, Melanie, Deas, Nicholas, McKeown, Kathleen
LLMs can be unpredictable, as even slight alterations to the prompt can cause the output to change in unexpected ways. Thus, the ability of models to accurately explain their behavior is critical, especially in high-stakes settings. One approach for evaluating explanations is counterfactual simulatability, how well an explanation allows users to infer the model's output on related counterfactuals. Counterfactual simulatability has been previously studied for yes/no question answering tasks. We provide a general framework for extending this method to generation tasks, using news summarization and medical suggestion as example use cases. We find that while LLM explanations do enable users to better predict LLM outputs on counterfactuals in the summarization setting, there is significant room for improvement for medical suggestion. Furthermore, our results suggest that the evaluation for counterfactual simulatability may be more appropriate for skill-based tasks as opposed to knowledge-based tasks.
From Generation to Detection: A Multimodal Multi-Task Dataset for Benchmarking Health Misinformation
Zhang, Zhihao, Zhang, Yiran, Zhou, Xiyue, Huang, Liting, Razzak, Imran, Nakov, Preslav, Naseem, Usman
Infodemics and health misinformation have significant negative impact on individuals and society, exacerbating confusion and increasing hesitancy in adopting recommended health measures. Recent advancements in generative AI, capable of producing realistic, human like text and images, have significantly accelerated the spread and expanded the reach of health misinformation, resulting in an alarming surge in its dissemination. To combat the infodemics, most existing work has focused on developing misinformation datasets from social media and fact checking platforms, but has faced limitations in topical coverage, inclusion of AI generation, and accessibility of raw content. To address these issues, we present MM Health, a large scale multimodal misinformation dataset in the health domain consisting of 34,746 news article encompassing both textual and visual information. MM Health includes human-generated multimodal information (5,776 articles) and AI generated multimodal information (28,880 articles) from various SOTA generative AI models. Additionally, We benchmarked our dataset against three tasks (reliability checks, originality checks, and fine-grained AI detection) demonstrating that existing SOTA models struggle to accurately distinguish the reliability and origin of information. Our dataset aims to support the development of misinformation detection across various health scenarios, facilitating the detection of human and machine generated content at multimodal levels.
Access Controls Will Solve the Dual-Use Dilemma
AI safety systems face the dual-use dilemma. It is unclear whether to answer dual-use requests, since the same query could be either harmless or harmful depending on who made it and why. To make better decisions, such systems would need to examine requests' real-world context, but currently, they lack access to this information. Instead, they sometimes end up making arbitrary choices that result in refusing legitimate queries and allowing harmful ones, which hurts both utility and safety. To address this, we propose a conceptual framework based on access controls where only verified users can access dual-use outputs. We describe the framework's components, analyse its feasibility, and explain how it addresses both over-refusals and under-refusals. While only a high-level proposal, our work takes the first step toward giving model providers more granular tools for managing dual-use content. Such tools would enable users to access more capabilities without sacrificing safety, and offer regulators new options for targeted policies.
Dying for fame: Singers die 4 YEARS earlier than non-famous people on average - and their celebrity status is to blame, scientists say
Karoline Leavitt's family member'abruptly arrested' by ICE after living in US for decades Residents in liberal Western US city feel'isolated' as state turns extremely red What HAS happened to Beyoncé? Suddenly desperate, I know what's really going on... and it's ugly: CAROLINE BULLOCK LIZ JONES: Sorry, but it's now time for Kate to stop making excuses'I fell for Joan the moment I saw her': The emotional love letter Sir Richard Branson penned to his'rock' on their anniversary - as he announces her death after 50 years together Ina Garten, 77, vulnerably addresses her decision not to have children: 'I can't imagine my life any other way' Sports broadcaster's wife suffers unimaginable tragedy just before he goes on air New'Hollywood of the South' emerges as booming industry generates $1bn... but long-time residents are furious University of Minnesota program offers guidelines to'reverse the whiteness pandemic' Emmy-winning CBS anchor reveals her devastating health battle: 'I've been silently struggling' Bethany MaGee's family issue heartbreaking statement about her injuries after devout Christian, 26, was set ablaze'by 72-time arrestee' on Chicago train Celebrities are known for living life in the fast lane - but being famous really can prove deadly, according to a new study. Researchers have discovered that being in the limelight comes with a higher mortality risk compared to those who never quite'make it'. It could explain why some singers such as Janis Joplin, Whitney Houston and Jimi Hendrix died so young. And it suggests that fame comes with'unique psychosocial stress' that leads to'harmful coping behaviours' like substance abuse, they said.
Dark matter is seen for the first time: Eerie image shows first direct evidence of the elusive substance that makes up 25% of the universe
Karoline Leavitt's family member'abruptly arrested' by ICE after living in US for decades Residents in liberal Western US city feel'isolated' as state turns extremely red What HAS happened to Beyoncé? Suddenly desperate, I know what's really going on... and it's ugly: CAROLINE BULLOCK LIZ JONES: Sorry, but it's now time for Kate to stop making excuses'I fell for Joan the moment I saw her': The emotional love letter Sir Richard Branson penned to his'rock' on their anniversary - as he announces her death after 50 years together Ina Garten, 77, vulnerably addresses her decision not to have children: 'I can't imagine my life any other way' Sports broadcaster's wife suffers unimaginable tragedy just before he goes on air New'Hollywood of the South' emerges as booming industry generates $1bn... but long-time residents are furious University of Minnesota program offers guidelines to'reverse the whiteness pandemic' Emmy-winning CBS anchor reveals her devastating health battle: 'I've been silently struggling' Bethany MaGee's family issue heartbreaking statement about her injuries after devout Christian, 26, was set ablaze'by 72-time arrestee' on Chicago train Scientists have captured the first-ever direct evidence for dark matter, the elusive substance that makes up more than a quarter of the universe. Using NASA's Fermi telescope, researchers have detected powerful gamma-ray radiation emerging from a'halo-like' structure surrounding the Milky Way. Its frequency and intensity suggest that this could be dark matter. According to the study's author, Professor Tomonori Totani of the University of Tokyo, this eerie image is the first time that humanity has been able to'see' the mysterious substance.
Elon Musk Said Grok's Roasts Would Be 'Epic' at Parties--So I Tried It on My Coworkers
Elon Musk Said Grok's Roasts Would Be'Epic' at Parties--So I Tried It on My Coworkers It went about as well as you'd expect. We can debate the worthiness of Elon Musk's accomplishments--building up Tesla, hollowing out the government, shooting for Mars --but we can all agree that his insistence on being seen as funny is his most grating quality. From the constant 4:20 references to his quote tweet "dunks" to awarding " Certified Bangers " badges to silly X posts, Musk's desperation for validation knows no bounds. It can get pretty annoying when the richest guy on earth makes a joke and then awkwardly eyes the room waiting for everyone to laugh. But over the weekend, I was intrigued when a clip emerged of Musk telling Joe Rogan that using Grok's Unhinged Mode to deliver an "epic vulgar roast" is a surefire way to "make people really laugh at a party."
WIRED Roundup: Gemini 3 Release, Nvidia Earnings, Epstein Files Fallout
In this episode of we cover the news of the week and take a closer look at the Gemini 3, Google's latest AI model and chatbot. In today's episode, host Zoë Schiffer is joined by senior writer Max Zeff to discuss five stories you need to know about this week--from the political fallout after the release of the Epstein files, to why two young Mormon men created an app to help men stop "gooning." Then, we dive into Gemini 3's release and how companies like Google and OpenAI are honing in on AI profitability. Please help us improve by filling out our listener survey . Write to us at uncannyvalley@wired.com . You can always listen to this week's podcast through the audio player on this page, but if you want to subscribe for free to get every episode, here's how: If you're on an iPhone or iPad, open the app called Podcasts, or just tap this link . Today on the show we're bringing you five stories that you need to know about this week, including how companies like Google and OpenAI are honing in on profitability as they develop their AI consumer-facing products. I'm joined today by WIRED's Senior Writer Max Zeff. It's great to be here.
Religious leader issues doomsday warning for the end of 2025: 'The last day of this world'
Sports broadcaster's wife suffers unimaginable tragedy just before he goes on air Bethany MaGee's family issue heartbreaking statement about her injuries after devout Christian, 26, was set ablaze'by 72-time arrestee' on Chicago train Couple left red-faced after buying $25K'dirt alley' at auction thinking it was bargain San Francisco home LIZ JONES: Sorry, but it's now time for Kate to stop making excuses Troubled 350lb son of Hollywood icon is forced to humiliating new low... as his movie star brother luxuriates in $7m Montecito mansion Ina Garten, 77, vulnerably addresses her decision not to have children: 'I can't imagine my life any other way' Doctors appalled by North West's new body modification warn parents to stop children from chasing the dangerous fad Alex appeared to have the dream Manhattan mom life. But she was hiding a dark secret... and it almost killed her Shocking extent America has turned on ICE is revealed as Joe Rogan breaks from conservatives still cheering Trump's army of masked men Sir Richard Branson's wife Joan dies: 'Heartbroken' Virgin tycoon pays tribute to his'best friend' after she passed away Trump gives Thanksgiving turkeys scathing nicknames and calls Pritzker a'fat slob' in fiery White House holiday speech How to tell if a man is using'therapy speak' to manipulate you: If he says any of these 15 toxic phrases, run for the hills... I'll tell you what he REALLY means: JANA HOCKING I know why Usha Vance ditched her wedding ring. Most women would do the same if they'd suffered her humiliation: KENNEDY A comet has been predicted to strike the Earth by the end of the year, on what a controversial religious leader called'the last day of this world.' The doomsday warning came from the writings of Riaz Ahmed Gohar Shahi, a Pakistani spiritual leader and mystic, who claimed that God was sending a comet to collide with Earth because humanity had strayed too far from spiritual truths . He founded several organizations to spread his teachings of'divine love,' including the spiritual movement called Anjuman Serfaroshan-e-Islam and the Messiah Foundation International (MFI).