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LogPr\'ecis: Unleashing Language Models for Automated Shell Log Analysis

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The collection of security-related logs holds the key to understanding attack behaviors and diagnosing vulnerabilities. Still, their analysis remains a daunting challenge. Recently, Language Models (LMs) have demonstrated unmatched potential in understanding natural and programming languages. The question arises whether and how LMs could be also useful for security experts since their logs contain intrinsically confused and obfuscated information. In this paper, we systematically study how to benefit from the state-of-the-art in LM to automatically analyze text-like Unix shell attack logs. We present a thorough design methodology that leads to LogPr\'ecis. It receives as input raw shell sessions and automatically identifies and assigns the attacker tactic to each portion of the session, i.e., unveiling the sequence of the attacker's goals. We demonstrate LogPr\'ecis capability to support the analysis of two large datasets containing about 400,000 unique Unix shell attacks. LogPr\'ecis reduces them into about 3,000 fingerprints, each grouping sessions with the same sequence of tactics. The abstraction it provides lets the analyst better understand attacks, identify fingerprints, detect novelty, link similar attacks, and track families and mutations. Overall, LogPr\'ecis, released as open source, paves the way for better and more responsive defense against cyberattacks.


GBT: Two-stage transformer framework for non-stationary time series forecasting

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper shows that time series forecasting Transformer (TSFT) suffers from severe over-fitting problem caused by improper initialization method of unknown decoder inputs, esp. when handling non-stationary time series. Based on this observation, we propose GBT, a novel two-stage Transformer framework with Good Beginning. It decouples the prediction process of TSFT into two stages, including Auto-Regression stage and Self-Regression stage to tackle the problem of different statistical properties between input and prediction sequences.Prediction results of Auto-Regression stage serve as a Good Beginning, i.e., a better initialization for inputs of Self-Regression stage. We also propose Error Score Modification module to further enhance the forecasting capability of the Self-Regression stage in GBT. Extensive experiments on seven benchmark datasets demonstrate that GBT outperforms SOTA TSFTs (FEDformer, Pyraformer, ETSformer, etc.) and many other forecasting models (SCINet, N-HiTS, etc.) with only canonical attention and convolution while owning less time and space complexity. It is also general enough to couple with these models to strengthen their forecasting capability. The source code is available at: https://github.com/OrigamiSL/GBT


Human in the AI loop via xAI and Active Learning for Visual Inspection

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Industrial revolutions have historically disrupted manufacturing by introducing automation into production. Increasing automation reshapes the role of the human worker. Advances in robotics and artificial intelligence open new frontiers of human-machine collaboration. Such collaboration can be realized considering two sub-fields of artificial intelligence: active learning and explainable artificial intelligence. Active learning aims to devise strategies that help obtain data that allows machine learning algorithms to learn better. On the other hand, explainable artificial intelligence aims to make the machine learning models intelligible to the human person. The present work first describes Industry 5.0, human-machine collaboration, and state-of-the-art regarding quality inspection, emphasizing visual inspection. Then it outlines how human-machine collaboration could be realized and enhanced in visual inspection. Finally, some of the results obtained in the EU H2020 STAR project regarding visual inspection are shared, considering artificial intelligence, human digital twins, and cybersecurity.


Edit at your own risk: evaluating the robustness of edited models to distribution shifts

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The current trend toward ever-larger models makes standard retraining procedures an ever-more expensive burden. For this reason, there is growing interest in model editing, which enables computationally inexpensive, interpretable, post-hoc model modifications. While many model editing techniques are promising, research on the properties of edited models is largely limited to evaluation of validation accuracy. The robustness of edited models is an important and yet mostly unexplored topic. In this paper, we employ recently developed techniques from the field of deep learning robustness to investigate both how model editing affects the general robustness of a model, as well as the robustness of the specific behavior targeted by the edit. We find that edits tend to reduce general robustness, but that the degree of degradation depends on the editing algorithm and layers chosen. Motivated by these observations we introduce a new model editing algorithm, 1-layer interpolation (1-LI), which uses weight-space interpolation to navigate the trade-off between editing task accuracy and general robustness.


A Unified Perspective on Natural Gradient Variational Inference with Gaussian Mixture Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Variational inference with Gaussian mixture models (GMMs) enables learning of highly tractable yet multi-modal approximations of intractable target distributions with up to a few hundred dimensions. The two currently most effective methods for GMM-based variational inference, VIPS and iBayes-GMM, both employ independent natural gradient updates for the individual components and their weights. We show for the first time, that their derived updates are equivalent, although their practical implementations and theoretical guarantees differ. We identify several design choices that distinguish both approaches, namely with respect to sample selection, natural gradient estimation, stepsize adaptation, and whether trust regions are enforced or the number of components adapted. We argue that for both approaches, the quality of the learned approximations can heavily suffer from the respective design choices: By updating the individual components using samples from the mixture model, iBayes-GMM often fails to produce meaningful updates to low-weight components, and by using a zero-order method for estimating the natural gradient, VIPS scales badly to higher-dimensional problems. Furthermore, we show that information-geometric trust-regions (used by VIPS) are effective even when using first-order natural gradient estimates, and often outperform the improved Bayesian learning rule (iBLR) update used by iBayes-GMM. We systematically evaluate the effects of design choices and show that a hybrid approach significantly outperforms both prior works. Along with this work, we publish our highly modular and efficient implementation for natural gradient variational inference with Gaussian mixture models, which supports 432 different combinations of design choices, facilitates the reproduction of all our experiments, and may prove valuable for the practitioner.


Conditionally Calibrated Predictive Distributions by Probability-Probability Map: Application to Galaxy Redshift Estimation and Probabilistic Forecasting

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Uncertainty quantification is crucial for assessing the predictive ability of AI algorithms. Much research has been devoted to describing the predictive distribution (PD) $F(y|\mathbf{x})$ of a target variable $y \in \mathbb{R}$ given complex input features $\mathbf{x} \in \mathcal{X}$. However, off-the-shelf PDs (from, e.g., normalizing flows and Bayesian neural networks) often lack conditional calibration with the probability of occurrence of an event given input $\mathbf{x}$ being significantly different from the predicted probability. Current calibration methods do not fully assess and enforce conditionally calibrated PDs. Here we propose \texttt{Cal-PIT}, a method that addresses both PD diagnostics and recalibration by learning a single probability-probability map from calibration data. The key idea is to regress probability integral transform scores against $\mathbf{x}$. The estimated regression provides interpretable diagnostics of conditional coverage across the feature space. The same regression function morphs the misspecified PD to a re-calibrated PD for all $\mathbf{x}$. We benchmark our corrected prediction bands (a by-product of corrected PDs) against oracle bands and state-of-the-art predictive inference algorithms for synthetic data. We also provide results for two applications: (i) probabilistic nowcasting given sequences of satellite images, and (ii) conditional density estimation of galaxy distances given imaging data (so-called photometric redshift estimation). Our code is available as a Python package https://github.com/lee-group-cmu/Cal-PIT .


Hitting the Books: How NASA helped JFK build his 'Nation of Immigrants'

Engadget

The Apollo 11 moon landing was a seminal event in American history, one etched deeply into our nation's collective psyche. The event ushered in an era of unbridled possibilities -- the stars were finally coming into reach -- and its effects were felt across the culture, from art and fashion to politics and culture. In After Apollo: Cultural Legacies of the Race to the Moon, a multidisciplinary collection of historians, researchers and academics explore the myriad ways that putting a man on the moon impacted the American Experience. Reprinted with permission of the University of Florida Press. From NASA's very beginnings, immigrant engineers, scientists, and technicians lent their talent, labor, and technical skills to the space program.


The EU Urges the US to Join the Fight to Regulate AI

WIRED

The world's most valuable and dominant internet companies are based in the US, but the nation's unproductive lawmakers and business-friendly courts have effectively outsourced the regulation of tech giants to the EU. That has given tremendous power to Didier Reynders, the European commissioner for justice, who is in charge of crafting and enforcing laws that apply across the 27-nation bloc. After nearly four years on the job, he's tired of hearing big talk from the US with little action. Ahead of his latest round of biannual meetings with US officials, including attorney general Merrick Garland in Washington, DC, tomorrow, Reynders told WIRED why the US needs to finally step up, where a probe into ChatGPT is headed, and why he made contentious comments about one of the world's most prominent privacy activists. His bicoastal tour began with a Waymo robotaxi ride through San Francisco (he gave it a rave review) and include meetings with Google and California's privacy czar.


Russian forces 'intercept eight Ukrainian drones over Crimea'

Al Jazeera

Russia's air defence forces and fleet in the Black Sea have shot down eight Ukrainian drones over the Crimean port of Sevastopol, according to a Moscow-installed official. Mikhail Razvozhayev, the Russian-installed governor of Sevastopol, said the drone attack took place early on Sunday over the port of Sevastopol and the city's Balaklava and Khersones districts. "No objects, either in the city or in the water area were damaged," he said on the Telegram messaging app. One drone was shot down over the sea, five were intercepted by Russia's electronic warfare forces and two water surface drones were destroyed on the outer shore, he added. There was no immediate comment from Kyiv on the attack on the Crimean Peninsula, which Russia annexed from Ukraine in 2014.


MargCTGAN: A "Marginally'' Better CTGAN for the Low Sample Regime

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The potential of realistic and useful synthetic data is significant. However, current evaluation methods for synthetic tabular data generation predominantly focus on downstream task usefulness, often neglecting the importance of statistical properties. This oversight becomes particularly prominent in low sample scenarios, accompanied by a swift deterioration of these statistical measures. In this paper, we address this issue by conducting an evaluation of three state-of-the-art synthetic tabular data generators based on their marginal distribution, column-pair correlation, joint distribution and downstream task utility performance across high to low sample regimes. The popular CTGAN model shows strong utility, but underperforms in low sample settings in terms of utility. To overcome this limitation, we propose MargCTGAN that adds feature matching of de-correlated marginals, which results in a consistent improvement in downstream utility as well as statistical properties of the synthetic data.