Unsupervised source separation involves unraveling an unknown set of source signals recorded through a mixing operator, with limited prior knowledge about the sources, and only access to a dataset of signal mixtures. This problem is inherently ill-posed and is further challenged by the variety of time-scales exhibited by sources in time series data from planetary space missions. As such, a systematic multiscale unsupervised approach is needed to identify and separate sources at different time-scales. Existing methods typically rely on a preselected window size that determines their operating time-scale, limiting their capacity to handle multi-scale sources. To address this issue, instead of directly operating in the time domain, we propose an unsupervised multi-scale clustering and source separation framework by leveraging wavelet scattering covariances that provide a low-dimensional representation of stochastic processes, capable of effectively distinguishing between different non-Gaussian stochastic processes. Nested within this representation space, we develop a factorial Gaussian-mixture variational autoencoder that is trained to (1) probabilistically cluster sources at different time-scales and (2) independently sample scattering covariance representations associated with each cluster. As the final stage, using samples from each cluster as prior information, we formulate source separation as an optimization problem in the wavelet scattering covariance representation space, resulting in separated sources in the time domain. When applied to seismic data recorded during the NASA InSight mission on Mars, containing sources varying greatly in time-scale, our multi-scale nested approach proves to be a powerful tool for discriminating between such different sources, e.g., minute-long transient one-sided pulses (known as "glitches") and structured ambient noises resulting from atmospheric activities that typically last for tens of minutes. These results provide an opportunity to conduct further investigations into the isolated sources related to atmospheric-surface interactions, thermal relaxations, and other complex phenomena.

The molten sand, a mixture of calcia, magnesia, alumina, and silicate, known as CMAS, is characterized by its high viscosity, density, and surface tension. The unique properties of CMAS make it a challenging material to deal with in high-temperature applications, requiring innovative solutions and materials to prevent its buildup and damage to critical equipment. Here, we use multiphase many-body dissipative particle dynamics (mDPD) simulations to study the wetting dynamics of highly viscous molten CMAS droplets. The simulations are performed in three dimensions, with varying initial droplet sizes and equilibrium contact angles. We propose a coarse parametric ordinary differential equation (ODE) that captures the spreading radius behavior of the CMAS droplets. The ODE parameters are then identified based on the Physics-Informed Neural Network (PINN) framework. Subsequently, the closed form dependency of parameter values found by PINN on the initial radii and contact angles are given using symbolic regression. Finally, we employ Bayesian PINNs (B-PINNs) to assess and quantify the uncertainty associated with the discovered parameters. In brief, this study provides insight into spreading dynamics of CMAS droplets by fusing simple parametric ODE modeling and state-of-the-art machine learning techniques.

Digital health, including telemedicine, has increased access to abortion care. The convenience, flexibility of appointment times, and ensured privacy to abortion users may make abortion services via telemedicine preferable. This scoping review systematically mapped studies conducted on abortion services via telemedicine, including their effectiveness and acceptability for abortion users and providers. All published papers included abortion services via telemedicine in the United States were considered. Articles were searched in PubMed, CINAHL, and Google Scholar databases in September 2022. The findings were synthesized narratively, and the PRISMA-ScR guidelines were used to report this study. Out of 757 retrieved articles, 33 articles were selected based on the inclusion criteria. These studies were published between 2011 and 2022, with 24 published in the last 3 years. The study found that telemedicine increased access to abortion care in the United States, especially for people in remote areas or those worried about stigma from in-person visits. The effectiveness of abortion services via telemedicine was comparable to in-clinic visits, with 6% or fewer abortions requiring surgical intervention. Both care providers and abortion seekers expressed positive perceptions of telemedicine-based abortion services. However, abortion users reported mixed emotions, with some preferring in-person visits. The most common reasons for choosing telemedicine included the distance to the abortion clinic, convenience, privacy, cost, flexibility of appointment times, and state laws imposing waiting periods or restrictive policies. Telemedicine offered a preferable option for abortion seekers and providers. The feasibility of accessing abortion services via telemedicine in low-resource settings needs further investigation.

Functional data analysis (FDA) (Ramsay and Silverman 2005) is naturally apt to represent and model this kind of data, as it allows preserving their continuous nature, and provides a rigorous mathematical framework. Among the others, Zhou and Pan 2014 analyzed temperature surfaces, presenting two approaches for Functional Principal Component Analysis (FPCA) of functions defined on a non-rectangular domain, Porro-Muñoz et al. 2014 focuses on image processing using FDA, while a novel regularization technique for Gaussian random fields on a rectangular domain has been proposed by Rakêt 2010 and applied to 2D electrophoresis images. Another bivariate smoothing approach in a penalized regression framework has been introduced by Ivanescu and Andrada 2013, allowing for the estimation of functional parameters of two-dimensional functional data. As shown by Gervini 2010, even mortality rates can be interpreted as two-dimensional functional data. Whereas in all the reviewed works functions are assumed to be realization of iid or at least exchangeable random objects, to the best of our knowledge there is no literature focusing on forecasting time-dependent two-dimensional functional data. In this work, we focus on time series of surfaces, representing them as two-dimensional Functional Time Series (FTS).

The ability to anticipate technical expertise and capability evolution trends globally is essential for national and global security, especially in safety-critical domains like nuclear nonproliferation (NN) and rapidly emerging fields like artificial intelligence (AI). In this work, we extend traditional statistical relational learning approaches (e.g., link prediction in collaboration networks) and formulate a problem of anticipating technical expertise and capability evolution using dynamic heterogeneous graph representations. We develop novel capabilities to forecast collaboration patterns, authorship behavior, and technical capability evolution at different granularities (e.g., scientist and institution levels) in two distinct research fields. We implement a dynamic graph transformer (DGT) neural architecture, which pushes the state-of-the-art graph neural network models by (a) forecasting heterogeneous (rather than homogeneous) nodes and edges, and (b) relying on both discrete -- and continuous -- time inputs. We demonstrate that our DGT models predict collaboration, partnership, and expertise patterns with 0.26, 0.73, and 0.53 mean reciprocal rank values for AI and 0.48, 0.93, and 0.22 for NN domains. DGT model performance exceeds the best-performing static graph baseline models by 30-80% across AI and NN domains. Our findings demonstrate that DGT models boost inductive task performance, when previously unseen nodes appear in the test data, for the domains with emerging collaboration patterns (e.g., AI). Specifically, models accurately predict which established scientists will collaborate with early career scientists and vice-versa in the AI domain.

Recent efforts at explaining the interplay of memorization and generalization in deep overparametrized networks have posited that neural networks $\textit{memorize}$ "hard" examples in the final few layers of the model. Memorization refers to the ability to correctly predict on $\textit{atypical}$ examples of the training set. In this work, we show that rather than being confined to individual layers, memorization is a phenomenon confined to a small set of neurons in various layers of the model. First, via three experimental sources of converging evidence, we find that most layers are redundant for the memorization of examples and the layers that contribute to example memorization are, in general, not the final layers. The three sources are $\textit{gradient accounting}$ (measuring the contribution to the gradient norms from memorized and clean examples), $\textit{layer rewinding}$ (replacing specific model weights of a converged model with previous training checkpoints), and $\textit{retraining}$ (training rewound layers only on clean examples). Second, we ask a more generic question: can memorization be localized $\textit{anywhere}$ in a model? We discover that memorization is often confined to a small number of neurons or channels (around 5) of the model. Based on these insights we propose a new form of dropout -- $\textit{example-tied dropout}$ that enables us to direct the memorization of examples to an apriori determined set of neurons. By dropping out these neurons, we are able to reduce the accuracy on memorized examples from $100\%\to3\%$, while also reducing the generalization gap.

Precision and Recall are two prominent metrics of generative performance, which were proposed to separately measure the fidelity and diversity of generative models. Given their central role in comparing and improving generative models, understanding their limitations are crucially important. To that end, in this work, we identify a critical flaw in the common approximation of these metrics using k-nearest-neighbors, namely, that the very interpretations of fidelity and diversity that are assigned to Precision and Recall can fail in high dimensions, resulting in very misleading conclusions. Specifically, we empirically and theoretically show that as the number of dimensions grows, two model distributions with supports at equal point-wise distance from the support of the real distribution, can have vastly different Precision and Recall regardless of their respective distributions, hence an emergent asymmetry in high dimensions. Based on our theoretical insights, we then provide simple yet effective modifications to these metrics to construct symmetric metrics regardless of the number of dimensions. Finally, we provide experiments on real-world datasets to illustrate that the identified flaw is not merely a pathological case, and that our proposed metrics are effective in alleviating its impact.

For billions of years, evolution has been the driving force behind the development of life, including humans. Evolution endowed humans with high intelligence, which allowed us to become one of the most successful species on the planet. Today, humans aim to create artificial intelligence systems that surpass even our own intelligence. As artificial intelligences (AIs) evolve and eventually surpass us in all domains, how might evolution shape our relations with AIs? By analyzing the environment that is shaping the evolution of AIs, we argue that the most successful AI agents will likely have undesirable traits. Competitive pressures among corporations and militaries will give rise to AI agents that automate human roles, deceive others, and gain power. If such agents have intelligence that exceeds that of humans, this could lead to humanity losing control of its future. More abstractly, we argue that natural selection operates on systems that compete and vary, and that selfish species typically have an advantage over species that are altruistic to other species. This Darwinian logic could also apply to artificial agents, as agents may eventually be better able to persist into the future if they behave selfishly and pursue their own interests with little regard for humans, which could pose catastrophic risks. To counteract these risks and evolutionary forces, we consider interventions such as carefully designing AI agents' intrinsic motivations, introducing constraints on their actions, and institutions that encourage cooperation. These steps, or others that resolve the problems we pose, will be necessary in order to ensure the development of artificial intelligence is a positive one.

Question answering over temporal knowledge graphs (TKGQA) has recently found increasing interest. TKGQA requires temporal reasoning techniques to extract the relevant information from temporal knowledge bases. The only existing TKGQA dataset, i.e., CronQuestions, consists of temporal questions based on the facts from a fixed time period, where a temporal knowledge graph (TKG) spanning the same period can be fully used for answer inference, allowing the TKGQA models to use even the future knowledge to answer the questions based on the past facts. In real-world scenarios, however, it is also common that given the knowledge until now, we wish the TKGQA systems to answer the questions asking about the future. As humans constantly seek plans for the future, building TKGQA systems for answering such forecasting questions is important. Nevertheless, this has still been unexplored in previous research. In this paper, we propose a novel task: forecasting question answering over temporal knowledge graphs. We also propose a large-scale TKGQA benchmark dataset, i.e., ForecastTKGQuestions, for this task. It includes three types of questions, i.e., entity prediction, yes-no, and fact reasoning questions. For every forecasting question in our dataset, QA models can only have access to the TKG information before the timestamp annotated in the given question for answer inference. We find that the state-of-the-art TKGQA methods perform poorly on forecasting questions, and they are unable to answer yes-no questions and fact reasoning questions. To this end, we propose ForecastTKGQA, a TKGQA model that employs a TKG forecasting module for future inference, to answer all three types of questions. Experimental results show that ForecastTKGQA outperforms recent TKGQA methods on the entity prediction questions, and it also shows great effectiveness in answering the other two types of questions.

Modern language models can imitate complex patterns through few-shot learning, enabling them to complete challenging tasks without fine-tuning. However, imitation can also lead models to reproduce inaccuracies or harmful content if present in the context. We study harmful imitation through the lens of a model's internal representations, and identify two related phenomena: overthinking and false induction heads. The first phenomenon, overthinking, appears when we decode predictions from intermediate layers, given correct vs. incorrect few-shot demonstrations. At early layers, both demonstrations induce similar model behavior, but the behavior diverges sharply at some "critical layer", after which the accuracy given incorrect demonstrations progressively decreases. The second phenomenon, false induction heads, are a possible mechanistic cause of overthinking: these are heads in late layers that attend to and copy false information from previous demonstrations, and whose ablation reduces overthinking. Beyond scientific understanding, our results suggest that studying intermediate model computations could be a promising avenue for understanding and guarding against harmful model behaviors.