Drawing on the experiences of facilitators who have overseen 43 games over a four-year period, we illuminate recurring patterns, strategies, and decision-making processes observed during gameplay. Our analysis reveals key strategic considerations about AI development trajectories in this simulated environment, including: the destabilising effects of AI races, the crucial role of international cooperation in mitigating catastrophic risks, the challenges of aligning corporate and national interests, and the potential for rapid, transformative change in AI capabilities. We highlight places where we believe the game has been effective in exposing participants to the complexities and uncertainties inherent in AI governance. Key recurring gameplay themes include the emergence of international agreements, challenges to the robustness of such agreements, the critical role of cybersecurity in AI development, and the potential for unexpected crises to dramatically alter AI trajectories. By documenting these insights, we aim to provide valuable foresight for policymakers, industry leaders, and researchers navigating the complex landscape of AI development and governance.

We introduce a novel machine learning model for credit risk by combining tree-boosting with a latent spatio-temporal Gaussian process model accounting for frailty correlation. This allows for modeling non-linearities and interactions among predictor variables in a flexible data-driven manner and for accounting for spatio-temporal variation that is not explained by observable predictor variables. We also show how estimation and prediction can be done in a computationally efficient manner. In an application to a large U.S. mortgage credit risk data set, we find that both predictive default probabilities for individual loans and predictive loan portfolio loss distributions obtained with our novel approach are more accurate compared to conventional independent linear hazard models and also linear spatio-temporal models. Using interpretability tools for machine learning models, we find that the likely reasons for this outperformance are strong interaction and non-linear effects in the predictor variables and the presence of large spatio-temporal frailty effects.

This study introduces a training-free conditional diffusion model for learning unknown stochastic differential equations (SDEs) using data. The proposed approach addresses key challenges in computational efficiency and accuracy for modeling SDEs by utilizing a score-based diffusion model to approximate their stochastic flow map. Unlike the existing methods, this technique is based on an analytically derived closed-form exact score function, which can be efficiently estimated by Monte Carlo method using the trajectory data, and eliminates the need for neural network training to learn the score function. By generating labeled data through solving the corresponding reverse ordinary differential equation, the approach enables supervised learning of the flow map. Extensive numerical experiments across various SDE types, including linear, nonlinear, and multi-dimensional systems, demonstrate the versatility and effectiveness of the method. The learned models exhibit significant improvements in predicting both short-term and long-term behaviors of unknown stochastic systems, often surpassing baseline methods like GANs in estimating drift and diffusion coefficients.

While generative AI (GenAI) offers countless possibilities for creative and productive tasks, artificially generated media can be misused for fraud, manipulation, scams, misinformation campaigns, and more. To mitigate the risks associated with maliciously generated media, forensic classifiers are employed to identify AI-generated content. However, current forensic classifiers are often not evaluated in practically relevant scenarios, such as the presence of an attacker or when real-world artifacts like social media degradations affect images. In this paper, we evaluate state-of-the-art AI-generated image (AIGI) detectors under different attack scenarios. We demonstrate that forensic classifiers can be effectively attacked in realistic settings, even when the attacker does not have access to the target model and post-processing occurs after the adversarial examples are created, which is standard on social media platforms. These attacks can significantly reduce detection accuracy to the extent that the risks of relying on detectors outweigh their benefits. Finally, we propose a simple defense mechanism to make CLIP-based detectors, which are currently the best-performing detectors, robust against these attacks.

Current state-of-the-art residential irrigation systems, such as WaterMyYard, rely on rainfall data from nearby weather stations to adjust irrigation amounts. However, the accuracy of rainfall data is compromised by the limited spatial resolution of rain gauges and the significant variability of hyperlocal rainfall, leading to substantial water waste. To improve irrigation efficiency, we developed a cost-effective irrigation system, dubbed ERIC, which employs machine learning models to estimate rainfall from commodity doorbell camera footage and optimizes irrigation schedules without human intervention. Specifically, we: a) designed novel visual and audio features with lightweight neural network models to infer rainfall from the camera at the edge, preserving user privacy; b) built a complete end-to-end irrigation system on Raspberry Pi 4, costing only \$75. We deployed the system across five locations (collecting over 750 hours of video) with varying backgrounds and light conditions. Comprehensive evaluation validates that ERIC achieves state-of-the-art rainfall estimation performance ($\sim$ 5mm/day), saving 9,112 gallons/month of water, translating to \$28.56/month in utility savings. Data and code are available at https://github.com/LENSS/ERIC-BuildSys2024.git

Concept erasure in language models has traditionally lacked a comprehensive evaluation framework, leading to incomplete assessments of effectiveness of erasure methods. We propose an evaluation paradigm centered on three critical criteria: innocence (complete knowledge removal), seamlessness (maintaining conditional fluent generation), and specificity (preserving unrelated task performance). Our evaluation metrics naturally motivate the development of Erasure of Language Memory (ELM), a new method designed to address all three dimensions. ELM employs targeted low-rank updates to alter output distributions for erased concepts while preserving overall model capabilities including fluency when prompted for an erased concept. We demonstrate ELM's efficacy on biosecurity, cybersecurity, and literary domain erasure tasks. Comparative analysis shows that ELM achieves superior performance across our proposed metrics, including near-random scores on erased topic assessments, generation fluency, maintained accuracy on unrelated benchmarks, and robustness under adversarial attacks. Our code, data, and trained models are available at https://elm.baulab.info

Large Language Models (LLMs) are pre-trained on large-scale corpora and excel in numerous general natural language processing (NLP) tasks, such as question answering (QA). Despite their advanced language capabilities, when it comes to domain-specific and knowledge-intensive tasks, LLMs suffer from hallucinations, knowledge cut-offs, and lack of knowledge attributions. Additionally, fine tuning LLMs' intrinsic knowledge to highly specific domains is an expensive and time consuming process. The retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) process has recently emerged as a method capable of optimization of LLM responses, by referencing them to a predetermined ontology. It was shown that using a Knowledge Graph (KG) ontology for RAG improves the QA accuracy, by taking into account relevant sub-graphs that preserve the information in a structured manner. In this paper, we introduce SMART-SLIC, a highly domain-specific LLM framework, that integrates RAG with KG and a vector store (VS) that store factual domain specific information. Importantly, to avoid hallucinations in the KG, we build these highly domain-specific KGs and VSs without the use of LLMs, but via NLP, data mining, and nonnegative tensor factorization with automatic model selection. Pairing our RAG with a domain-specific: (i) KG (containing structured information), and (ii) VS (containing unstructured information) enables the development of domain-specific chat-bots that attribute the source of information, mitigate hallucinations, lessen the need for fine-tuning, and excel in highly domain-specific question answering tasks. We pair SMART-SLIC with chain-of-thought prompting agents. The framework is designed to be generalizable to adapt to any specific or specialized domain. In this paper, we demonstrate the question answering capabilities of our framework on a corpus of scientific publications on malware analysis and anomaly detection.

We have developed a Bayesian optimization (BO) workflow that integrates intra-step noise optimization into automated experimental cycles. Traditional BO approaches in automated experiments focus on optimizing experimental trajectories but often overlook the impact of measurement noise on data quality and cost. Our proposed framework simultaneously optimizes both the target property and the associated measurement noise by introducing time as an additional input parameter, thereby balancing the signal-to-noise ratio and experimental duration. Two approaches are explored: a reward-driven noise optimization and a double-optimization acquisition function, both enhancing the efficiency of automated workflows by considering noise and cost within the optimization process. We validate our method through simulations and real-world experiments using Piezoresponse Force Microscopy (PFM), demonstrating the successful optimization of measurement duration and property exploration. Our approach offers a scalable solution for optimizing multiple variables in automated experimental workflows, improving data quality, and reducing resource expenditure in materials science and beyond.

As Large Language Models (LLMs) grow increasingly powerful, ensuring their safety and alignment with human values remains a critical challenge. Ideally, LLMs should provide informative responses while avoiding the disclosure of harmful or sensitive information. However, current alignment approaches, which rely heavily on refusal strategies, such as training models to completely reject harmful prompts or applying coarse filters are limited by their binary nature. These methods either fully deny access to information or grant it without sufficient nuance, leading to overly cautious responses or failures to detect subtle harmful content. For example, LLMs may refuse to provide basic, public information about medication due to misuse concerns. Moreover, these refusal-based methods struggle to handle mixed-content scenarios and lack the ability to adapt to context-dependent sensitivities, which can result in over-censorship of benign content. To overcome these challenges, we introduce HiddenGuard, a novel framework for fine-grained, safe generation in LLMs. HiddenGuard incorporates Prism (rePresentation Router for In-Stream Moderation), which operates alongside the LLM to enable real-time, token-level detection and redaction of harmful content by leveraging intermediate hidden states. This fine-grained approach allows for more nuanced, context-aware moderation, enabling the model to generate informative responses while selectively redacting or replacing sensitive information, rather than outright refusal. We also contribute a comprehensive dataset with token-level fine-grained annotations of potentially harmful information across diverse contexts. Our experiments demonstrate that HiddenGuard achieves over 90% in F1 score for detecting and redacting harmful content while preserving the overall utility and informativeness of the model's responses.

Information retrieval (IR) systems have played a vital role in modern digital life and have cemented their continued usefulness in this new era of generative AI via retrieval-augmented generation. With strong language processing capabilities and remarkable versatility, large language models (LLMs) have become popular choices for zero-shot re-ranking in IR systems. So far, LLM-based re-ranking methods rely on strong generative capabilities, which restricts their use to either specialized or powerful proprietary models. Given these restrictions, we ask: is autoregressive generation necessary and optimal for LLMs to perform re-ranking? We hypothesize that there are abundant signals relevant to re-ranking within LLMs that might not be used to their full potential via generation. To more directly leverage such signals, we propose in-context re-ranking (ICR), a novel method that leverages the change in attention pattern caused by the search query for accurate and efficient re-ranking. To mitigate the intrinsic biases in LLMs, we propose a calibration method using a content-free query. Due to the absence of generation, ICR only requires two ($O(1)$) forward passes to re-rank $N$ documents, making it substantially more efficient than generative re-ranking methods that require at least $O(N)$ forward passes. Our novel design also enables ICR to be applied to any LLM without specialized training while guaranteeing a well-formed ranking. Extensive experiments with two popular open-weight LLMs on standard single-hop and multi-hop information retrieval benchmarks show that ICR outperforms RankGPT while cutting the latency by more than 60% in practice. Through detailed analyses, we show that ICR's performance is specially strong on tasks that require more complex re-ranking signals. Our findings call for further exploration on novel ways of utilizing open-weight LLMs beyond text generation.