Government
The Ideation-Execution Gap: Execution Outcomes of LLM-Generated versus Human Research Ideas
Si, Chenglei, Hashimoto, Tatsunori, Yang, Diyi
Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown promise in accelerating the scientific research pipeline. A key capability for this process is the ability to generate novel research ideas, and prior studies have found settings in which LLM-generated research ideas were judged as more novel than human-expert ideas. However, a good idea should not simply appear to be novel, it should also result in better research after being executed. To test whether AI-generated ideas lead to better research outcomes, we conduct an execution study by recruiting 43 expert researchers to execute randomly-assigned ideas, either written by experts or generated by an LLM. Each expert spent over 100 hours implementing the idea and wrote a 4-page short paper to document the experiments. All the executed projects are then reviewed blindly by expert NLP researchers. Comparing the review scores of the same ideas before and after execution, the scores of the LLM-generated ideas decrease significantly more than expert-written ideas on all evaluation metrics (novelty, excitement, effectiveness, and overall; p < 0.05), closing the gap between LLM and human ideas observed at the ideation stage. When comparing the aggregated review scores from the execution study, we even observe that for many metrics there is a flip in rankings where human ideas score higher than LLM ideas. This ideation-execution gap highlights the limitations of current LLMs in generating truly effective research ideas and the challenge of evaluating research ideas in the absence of execution outcomes.
Artificial Delegates Resolve Fairness Issues in Perpetual Voting with Partial Turnout
Shah, Apurva, Abels, Axel, Nowé, Ann, Lenaerts, Tom
Perpetual voting considers sequences of decis ions made by the same electorate, where fairness must be evaluated over time rather than perdecision [16]. A centralchallenge in this setting is ensuring adequaterepresentation for voters who are repeatedly in the minority. Traditional a ggregation rules, such as majority voting or Borda count, fail in this regard: they offer no guarantees of long-term fai rness or cumulative influence. In response, methods such as Perpetual Phragmén [17] and Perpetual Consensus [16] hav e been proposed to distribute influence more equitably over time. However, they rely on full knowledge of all voters ' approval sets, implicitly requiring consistent voter participation, a condition which can be hard to satisfy in real-world contexts. Real-world elections face various practical constraints-- including scheduling conflicts, limited resources, and restricted information access--that inevitably prevent vote rs from participating consistently.
Cat and Mouse -- Can Fake Text Generation Outpace Detector Systems?
McGlinchey, Andrea, Barclay, Peter J
Large language models (LLMs) can produce convincing'fake text' in domains such as academic writing, product reviews, and political news. Many approaches have been investigated for the detection of artificially generated text. While this may seem to presage an endless'arms race', we note that newer LLMs use ever more parameters, training data, and energy, while relatively simple classifiers demonstrate a good level of detection accuracy with modest resources. To approach the question of whether the models ability to beat the detectors may therefore reach a plateau, we examine the ability of statistical classifiers to identify'fake text' in the style of classical detective fiction. Over a 0.5 version increase, we found that Gemini showed an increased ability to generate deceptive text, while GPT did not. This suggests that reliable detection of fake text may remain feasible even for ever-larger models, though new model architectures may improve their deceptiveness.
Distributed Cross-Channel Hierarchical Aggregation for Foundation Models
Tsaris, Aristeidis, Lyngaas, Isaac, Lagregren, John, Wahib, Mohamed, York, Larry, Balaprakash, Prasanna, Lu, Dan, Wang, Feiyi, Wang, Xiao
Vision-based scientific foundation models hold significant promise for advancing scientific discovery and innovation. This potential stems from their ability to aggregate images from diverse sources such as varying physical groundings or data acquisition systems and to learn spatio-temporal correlations using transformer architectures. However, tokenizing and aggregating images can be compute-intensive, a challenge not fully addressed by current distributed methods. In this work, we introduce the Distributed Cross-Channel Hierarchical Aggregation (D-CHAG) approach designed for datasets with a large number of channels across image modalities. Our method is compatible with any model-parallel strategy and any type of vision transformer architecture, significantly improving computational efficiency. We evaluated D-CHAG on hyperspectral imaging and weather forecasting tasks. When integrated with tensor parallelism and model sharding, our approach achieved up to a 75% reduction in memory usage and more than doubled sustained throughput on up to 1,024 AMD GPUs on the Frontier Supercomputer.
Empowering Digital Agriculture: A Privacy-Preserving Framework for Data Sharing and Collaborative Research
Zafar, Osama, González, Rosemarie Santa, Namazi, Mina, Morales, Alfonso, Ayday, Erman
--Data-driven agriculture, which integrates technology and data into agricultural practices, has the potential to improve crop yield, disease resilience, and long-term soil health. However, privacy concerns, such as adverse pricing, discrimination, and resource manipulation, deter farmers from sharing data, as it can be used against them. T o address this barrier, we propose a privacy-preserving framework that enables secure data sharing and collaboration for research and development while mitigating privacy risks. The framework combines dimensionality reduction techniques (like Principal Component Analysis (PCA)) and differential privacy by introducing Laplacian noise to protect sensitive information. The proposed framework allows researchers to identify potential collaborators for a target farmer and train personalized machine learning models either on the data of identified collaborators via federated learning or directly on the aggregated privacy-protected data. It also allows farmers to identify potential collaborators based on similarities. We have validated this on real-life datasets, demonstrating robust privacy protection against adversarial attacks and utility performance comparable to a centralized system. We demonstrate how this framework can facilitate collaboration among farmers and help researchers pursue broader research objectives. The adoption of the framework can empower researchers and policymakers to leverage agricultural data responsibly, paving the way for transformative advances in data-driven agriculture. By addressing critical privacy challenges, this work supports secure data integration, fostering innovation and sustainability in agricultural systems.
skLEP: A Slovak General Language Understanding Benchmark
Šuppa, Marek, Ridzik, Andrej, Hládek, Daniel, Javůrek, Tomáš, Ondrejová, Viktória, Sásiková, Kristína, Tamajka, Martin, Šimko, Marián
In this work, we introduce skLEP, the first comprehensive benchmark specifically designed for evaluating Slovak natural language understanding (NLU) models. We have compiled skLEP to encompass nine diverse tasks that span token-level, sentence-pair, and document-level challenges, thereby offering a thorough assessment of model capabilities. To create this benchmark, we curated new, original datasets tailored for Slovak and meticulously translated established English NLU resources. Within this paper, we also present the first systematic and extensive evaluation of a wide array of Slovak-specific, multilingual, and English pre-trained language models using the skLEP tasks. Finally, we also release the complete benchmark data, an open-source toolkit facilitating both fine-tuning and evaluation of models, and a public leaderboard at https://github.com/slovak-nlp/sklep in the hopes of fostering reproducibility and drive future research in Slovak NLU.
mTSBench: Benchmarking Multivariate Time Series Anomaly Detection and Model Selection at Scale
Zhou, Xiaona, Brif, Constantin, Lourentzou, Ismini
Multivariate time series anomaly detection (MTS-AD) is critical in domains like healthcare, cybersecurity, and industrial monitoring, yet remains challenging due to complex inter-variable dependencies, temporal dynamics, and sparse anomaly labels. We introduce mTSBench, the largest benchmark to date for MTS-AD and unsupervised model selection, spanning 344 labeled time series across 19 datasets and 12 diverse application domains. mTSBench evaluates 24 anomaly detection methods, including large language model (LLM)-based detectors for multivariate time series, and systematically benchmarks unsupervised model selection techniques under standardized conditions. Consistent with prior findings, our results confirm that no single detector excels across datasets, underscoring the importance of model selection. However, even state-of-the-art selection methods remain far from optimal, revealing critical gaps. mTSBench provides a unified evaluation suite to enable rigorous, reproducible comparisons and catalyze future advances in adaptive anomaly detection and robust model selection.
Forecasting Geopolitical Events with a Sparse Temporal Fusion Transformer and Gaussian Process Hybrid: A Case Study in Middle Eastern and U.S. Conflict Dynamics
Huang, Hsin-Hsiung, Hampton, Hayden
Forecasting geopolitical conflict from data sources like the Global Database of Events, Language, and Tone (GDELT) is a critical challenge for national security. The inherent sparsity, burstiness, and overdispersion of such data cause standard deep learning models, including the Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT), to produce unreliable long-horizon predictions. We introduce STFT-VNNGP, a hybrid architecture that won the 2023 Algorithms for Threat Detection (ATD) competition by overcoming these limitations. Designed to bridge this gap, our model employs a two-stage process: first, a TFT captures complex temporal dynamics to generate multi-quantile forecasts. These quantiles then serve as informed inputs for a Variational Nearest Neighbor Gaussian Process (VNNGP), which performs principled spatiotemporal smoothing and uncertainty quantification. In a case study forecasting conflict dynamics in the Middle East and the U.S., STFT-VNNGP consistently outperforms a standalone TFT, showing a superior ability to predict the timing and magnitude of bursty event periods, particularly at long-range horizons. This work offers a robust framework for generating more reliable and actionable intelligence from challenging event data, with all code and workflows made publicly available to ensure reproducibility.
Latent-space Field Tension for Astrophysical Component Detection An application to X-ray imaging
Guardiani, Matteo, Eberle, Vincent, Westerkamp, Margret, Rüstig, Julian, Frank, Philipp, Enßlin, Torsten
Modern observatories are designed to deliver increasingly detailed views of astrophysical signals. To fully realize the potential of these observations, principled data-analysis methods are required to effectively separate and reconstruct the underlying astrophysical components from data corrupted by noise and instrumental effects. In this work, we introduce a novel multi-frequency Bayesian model of the sky emission field that leverages latent-space tension as an indicator of model misspecification, enabling automated separation of diffuse, point-like, and extended astrophysical emission components across wavelength bands. Deviations from latent-space prior expectations are used as diagnostics for model misspecification, thus systematically guiding the introduction of new sky components, such as point-like and extended sources. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this method on synthetic multi-frequency imaging data and apply it to observational X-ray data from the eROSITA Early Data Release (EDR) of the SN1987A region in the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC). Our results highlight the method's capability to reconstruct astrophysical components with high accuracy, achieving sub-pixel localization of point sources, robust separation of extended emission, and detailed uncertainty quantification. The developed methodology offers a general and well-founded framework applicable to a wide variety of astronomical datasets, and is therefore well suited to support the analysis needs of next-generation multi-wavelength and multi-messenger surveys.
Generating Reliable Adverse event Profiles for Health through Automated Integrated Data (GRAPH-AID): A Semi-Automated Ontology Building Approach
Gadusu, Srikar Reddy, Callahan, Larry, Lababidi, Samir, Nishtala, Arunasri, Healey, Sophia, McGinty, Hande
As data and knowledge expand rapidly, adopting systematic methodologies for ontology generation has become crucial. With the daily increases in data volumes and frequent content changes, the demand for databases to store and retrieve information for the creation of knowledge graphs has become increasingly urgent. The previously established Knowledge Acquisition and Representation Methodology (KNARM) outlines a systematic approach to address these challenges and create knowledge graphs. However, following this methodology highlights the existing challenge of seamlessly integrating Neo4j databases with the Web Ontology Language (OWL). Previous attempts to integrate data from Neo4j into an ontology have been discussed, but these approaches often require an understanding of description logics (DL) syntax, which may not be familiar to many users. Thus, a more accessible method is necessary to bridge this gap. This paper presents a user-friendly approach that utilizes Python and its rdflib library to support ontology development. We showcase our novel approach through a Neo4j database we created by integrating data from the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Adverse Event Reporting System (FAERS) database. Using this dataset, we developed a Python script that automatically generates the required classes and their axioms, facilitating a smoother integration process. This approach offers a practical solution to the challenges of ontology generation in the context of rapidly growing adverse drug event datasets, supporting improved drug safety monitoring and public health decision-making.