Energy
Structured Diffusion Models with Mixture of Gaussians as Prior Distribution
Jia, Nanshan, Zhu, Tingyu, Liu, Haoyu, Zheng, Zeyu
We propose a class of structured diffusion models, in which the prior distribution is chosen as a mixture of Gaussians, rather than a standard Gaussian distribution. The specific mixed Gaussian distribution, as prior, can be chosen to incorporate certain structured information of the data. We develop a simple-to-implement training procedure that smoothly accommodates the use of mixed Gaussian as prior. Theory is provided to quantify the benefits of our proposed models, compared to the classical diffusion models. Numerical experiments with synthetic, image and operational data are conducted to show comparative advantages of our model. Our method is shown to be robust to mis-specifications and in particular suits situations where training resources are limited or faster training in real time is desired.
A Comprehensive Survey of Time Series Forecasting: Architectural Diversity and Open Challenges
Kim, Jongseon, Kim, Hyungjoon, Kim, HyunGi, Lee, Dongjun, Yoon, Sungroh
Time series forecasting is a critical task that provides key information for decision-making across various fields. Recently, various fundamental deep learning architectures such as MLPs, CNNs, RNNs, and GNNs have been developed and applied to solve time series forecasting problems. However, the structural limitations caused by the inductive biases of each deep learning architecture constrained their performance. Transformer models, which excel at handling long-term dependencies, have become significant architectural components for time series forecasting. However, recent research has shown that alternatives such as simple linear layers can outperform Transformers. These findings have opened up new possibilities for using diverse architectures. In this context of exploration into various models, the architectural modeling of time series forecasting has now entered a renaissance. This survey not only provides a historical context for time series forecasting but also offers comprehensive and timely analysis of the movement toward architectural diversification. By comparing and re-examining various deep learning models, we uncover new perspectives and presents the latest trends in time series forecasting, including the emergence of hybrid models, diffusion models, Mamba models, and foundation models. By focusing on the inherent characteristics of time series data, we also address open challenges that have gained attention in time series forecasting, such as channel dependency, distribution shift, causality, and feature extraction. This survey explores vital elements that can enhance forecasting performance through diverse approaches. These contributions lead to lowering the entry barriers for newcomers to the field of time series forecasting, while also offering seasoned researchers broad perspectives, new opportunities, and deep insights.
Cascading Failure Prediction via Causal Inference
Ghosh, Shiuli Subhra, Dwivedi, Anmol, Tajer, Ali, Yeo, Kyongmin, Gifford, Wesley M.
Causal inference provides an analytical framework to identify and quantify cause-and-effect relationships among a network of interacting agents. This paper offers a novel framework for analyzing cascading failures in power transmission networks. This framework generates a directed latent graph in which the nodes represent the transmission lines and the directed edges encode the cause-effect relationships. This graph has a structure distinct from the system's topology, signifying the intricate fact that both local and non-local interdependencies exist among transmission lines, which are more general than only the local interdependencies that topological graphs can present. This paper formalizes a causal inference framework for predicting how an emerging anomaly propagates throughout the system. Using this framework, two algorithms are designed, providing an analytical framework to identify the most likely and most costly cascading scenarios. The framework's effectiveness is evaluated compared to the pertinent literature on the IEEE 14-bus, 39-bus, and 118-bus systems.
Autonomous Building Cyber-Physical Systems Using Decentralized Autonomous Organizations, Digital Twins, and Large Language Model
Ly, Reachsak, Shojaei, Alireza
Current autonomous building research primarily focuses on energy efficiency and automation. While traditional artificial intelligence has advanced autonomous building research, it often relies on predefined rules and struggles to adapt to complex, evolving building operations. Moreover, the centralized organizational structures of facilities management hinder transparency in decision-making, limiting true building autonomy. Research on decentralized governance and adaptive building infrastructure, which could overcome these challenges, remains relatively unexplored. This paper addresses these limitations by introducing a novel Decentralized Autonomous Building Cyber-Physical System framework that integrates Decentralized Autonomous Organizations, Large Language Models, and digital twins to create a smart, self-managed, operational, and financially autonomous building infrastructure. This study develops a full-stack decentralized application to facilitate decentralized governance of building infrastructure. An LLM-based artificial intelligence assistant is developed to provide intuitive human-building interaction for blockchain and building operation management-related tasks and enable autonomous building operation. Six real-world scenarios were tested to evaluate the autonomous building system's workability, including building revenue and expense management, AI-assisted facility control, and autonomous adjustment of building systems. Results indicate that the prototype successfully executes these operations, confirming the framework's suitability for developing building infrastructure with decentralized governance and autonomous operation.
CAMEL-Bench: A Comprehensive Arabic LMM Benchmark
Ghaboura, Sara, Heakl, Ahmed, Thawakar, Omkar, Alharthi, Ali, Riahi, Ines, Saif, Abduljalil, Laaksonen, Jorma, Khan, Fahad S., Khan, Salman, Anwer, Rao M.
Recent years have witnessed a significant interest in developing large multimodal models (LMMs) capable of performing various visual reasoning and understanding tasks. This has led to the introduction of multiple LMM benchmarks to evaluate LMMs on different tasks. However, most existing LMM evaluation benchmarks are predominantly English-centric. In this work, we develop a comprehensive LMM evaluation benchmark for the Arabic language to represent a large population of over 400 million speakers. The proposed benchmark, named CAMEL-Bench, comprises eight diverse domains and 38 sub-domains including, multi-image understanding, complex visual perception, handwritten document understanding, video understanding, medical imaging, plant diseases, and remote sensing-based land use understanding to evaluate broad scenario generalizability. Our CAMEL-Bench comprises around 29,036 questions that are filtered from a larger pool of samples, where the quality is manually verified by native speakers to ensure reliable model assessment. We conduct evaluations of both closed-source, including GPT-4 series, and open-source LMMs. Our analysis reveals the need for substantial improvement, especially among the best open-source models, with even the closed-source GPT-4o achieving an overall score of 62%. Our benchmark and evaluation scripts are open-sourced.
Retrieval-Augmented Diffusion Models for Time Series Forecasting
Liu, Jingwei, Yang, Ling, Li, Hongyan, Hong, Shenda
While time series diffusion models have received considerable focus from many recent works, the performance of existing models remains highly unstable. Factors limiting time series diffusion models include insufficient time series datasets and the absence of guidance. To address these limitations, we propose a Retrieval- Augmented Time series Diffusion model (RATD). The framework of RATD consists of two parts: an embedding-based retrieval process and a reference-guided diffusion model. In the first part, RATD retrieves the time series that are most relevant to historical time series from the database as references. The references are utilized to guide the denoising process in the second part. Our approach allows leveraging meaningful samples within the database to aid in sampling, thus maximizing the utilization of datasets. Meanwhile, this reference-guided mechanism also compensates for the deficiencies of existing time series diffusion models in terms of guidance. Experiments and visualizations on multiple datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach, particularly in complicated prediction tasks.
Leveraging Graph Neural Networks and Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning for Inventory Control in Supply Chains
Kotecha, Niki, Chanona, Antonio del Rio
Inventory control in modern supply chains has attracted significant attention due to the increasing number of disruptive shocks and the challenges posed by complex dynamics, uncertainties, and limited collaboration. Traditional methods, which often rely on static parameters, struggle to adapt to changing environments. This paper proposes a Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL) framework with Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) for state representation to address these limitations. Our approach redefines the action space by parameterizing heuristic inventory control policies, making it adaptive as the parameters dynamically adjust based on system conditions. By leveraging the inherent graph structure of supply chains, our framework enables agents to learn the system's topology, and we employ a centralized learning, decentralized execution scheme that allows agents to learn collaboratively while overcoming information-sharing constraints. Additionally, we incorporate global mean pooling and regularization techniques to enhance performance. We test the capabilities of our proposed approach on four different supply chain configurations and conduct a sensitivity analysis. This work paves the way for utilizing MARL-GNN frameworks to improve inventory management in complex, decentralized supply chain environments.
An Investigation on Machine Learning Predictive Accuracy Improvement and Uncertainty Reduction using VAE-based Data Augmentation
Alsafadi, Farah, Yaseen, Mahmoud, Wu, Xu
However, a unique challenge in nuclear engineering is data scarcity because experimentation on nuclear systems is usually more expensive and time-consuming than most other disciplines. Large amounts of data may be available for certain parts such as pipes, pumps and turbines, etc., due to large network of sensors, but not for many others, such as critical heat flux in thermal-hydraulics experiments, advanced materials qualification data like molten salts and multi-principal element alloys, etc. Particularly concerning is the lack of data for advanced reactor design and safety analysis, raising challenges for utilizing ML in licensing analyses of advanced nuclear reactors. In these cases, we need to move beyond "throw more data and re-train" at the problem, which is the common solution in areas such as computer vision and natural language processing that have access to "big data". One potential way to address the data scarcity issue is data augmentation using deep generative learning. Deep generative learning is an unsupervised ML technique that aims at discovering and learning the regularities or patterns in existing data using deep generative models (DGMs), in order to generate new samples that plausibly could have been drawn from the real dataset. DGMs are typically neural networks (NNs) trained to learn or approximate the underlying distribution of the training data. This enables them to generate synthetic samples that closely match the distribution of the original training data. By employing DGMs for data augmentation, one can significantly expand the training dataset for ML models to achieve better performance in other tasks, such as data-driven predictive ML models. Data augmentation with DGMs is still a relatively new research area in nuclear engineering, but has been studied for a few years in computer vision and natural language processing for datasets involving images, audios, videos, spoken words, etc.
Context is Key: A Benchmark for Forecasting with Essential Textual Information
Williams, Andrew Robert, Ashok, Arjun, Marcotte, รtienne, Zantedeschi, Valentina, Subramanian, Jithendaraa, Riachi, Roland, Requeima, James, Lacoste, Alexandre, Rish, Irina, Chapados, Nicolas, Drouin, Alexandre
Forecasting is a critical task in decision making across various domains. While numerical data provides a foundation, it often lacks crucial context necessary for accurate predictions. Human forecasters frequently rely on additional information, such as background knowledge or constraints, which can be efficiently communicated through natural language. However, the ability of existing forecasting models to effectively integrate this textual information remains an open question. To address this, we introduce "Context is Key" (CiK), a time series forecasting benchmark that pairs numerical data with diverse types of carefully crafted textual context, requiring models to integrate both modalities. We evaluate a range of approaches, including statistical models, time series foundation models, and LLM-based forecasters, and propose a simple yet effective LLM prompting method that outperforms all other tested methods on our benchmark. Our experiments highlight the importance of incorporating contextual information, demonstrate surprising performance when using LLM-based forecasting models, and also reveal some of their critical shortcomings. By presenting this benchmark, we aim to advance multimodal forecasting, promoting models that are both accurate and accessible to decision-makers with varied technical expertise. The benchmark can be visualized at https://servicenow.github.io/context-is-key-forecasting/v0/ .
Cellpose+, a morphological analysis tool for feature extraction of stained cell images
Huaman, Israel A., Ghorabe, Fares D. E., Chumakova, Sofya S., Pisarenko, Alexandra A., Dudaev, Alexey E., Volova, Tatiana G., Ryltseva, Galina A., Ulasevich, Sviatlana A., Shishatskaya, Ekaterina I., Skorb, Ekaterina V., Zun, Pavel S.
Advanced image segmentation and processing tools present an opportunity to study cell processes and their dynamics. However, image analysis is often routine and time-consuming. Nowadays, alternative data-driven approaches using deep learning are potentially offering automatized, accurate, and fast image analysis. In this paper, we extend the applications of Cellpose, a state-of-the-art cell segmentation framework, with feature extraction capabilities to assess morphological characteristics. We also introduce a dataset of DAPI and FITC stained cells to which our new method is applied.