The growing threats of uncertainties, anomalies, and cyberattacks on power grids are driving a critical need to advance situational awareness which allows system operators to form a complete and accurate picture of the present and future state. Simulation and estimation are foundational tools in this process. However, existing tools lack the robustness and efficiency required to achieve the level of situational awareness needed for the ever-evolving threat landscape. Industry-standard (steady-state) simulators are not robust to blackouts, often leading to non-converging or non-actionable results. Estimation tools lack robustness to anomalous data, returning erroneous system states. Efficiency is the other major concern as nonlinearities and scalability issues make large systems slow to converge. This thesis addresses robustness and efficiency gaps through a dual-fold contribution. We first address the inherent limitations in the existing physics-based and data-driven worlds; and then transcend the boundaries of conventional algorithmic design in the direction of a new paradigm -- Physics-ML Synergy -- which integrates the strengths of the two worlds. Our approaches are built on circuit formulation which provides a unified framework that applies to both transmission and distribution. Sparse optimization acts as the key enabler to make these tools intrinsically robust and immune to random threats, pinpointing dominant sources of (random) blackouts and data errors. Further, we explore sparsity-exploiting optimizations to develop lightweight ML models whose prediction and detection capabilities are a complement to physics-based tools; and whose lightweight designs advance generalization and scalability. Finally, Physics-ML Synergy brings robustness and efficiency further against targeted cyberthreats, by interconnecting our physics-based tools with lightweight ML.

Large Language Models have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in code generation, yet they often struggle with complex programming tasks that require deep algorithmic reasoning. While process supervision through learned reward models shows promise in guiding reasoning steps, it requires expensive training data and suffers from unreliable evaluation. We propose Outcome-Refining Process Supervision, a novel paradigm that treats outcome refinement itself as the process to be supervised. Our framework leverages concrete execution signals to ground the supervision of reasoning steps, while using tree-structured exploration to maintain multiple solution trajectories simultaneously. Experiments demonstrate that our approach enables even smaller models to achieve high success accuracy and performance metrics on competitive programming tasks, creates more reliable verification than traditional reward models without requiring training PRMs. Our approach achieves significant improvements across 5 models and 3 datasets: an average of 26.9% increase in correctness and 42.2% in efficiency. The results suggest that providing structured reasoning space with concrete verification signals is crucial for solving complex programming tasks. We open-source all our code and data at: https://github.com/zhuohaoyu/ORPS

In the past, normalizing generative flows have emerged as a promising class of generative models for natural images. This type of model has many modeling advantages: the ability to efficiently compute log-likelihood of the input data, fast generation and simple overall structure. Normalizing flows remained a topic of active research but later fell out of favor, as visual quality of the samples was not competitive with other model classes, such as GANs, VQ-VAE-based approaches or diffusion models. In this paper we revisit the design of the coupling-based normalizing flow models by carefully ablating prior design choices and using computational blocks based on the Vision Transformer architecture, not convolutional neural networks. As a result, we achieve state-of-the-art quantitative and qualitative performance with a much simpler architecture. While the overall visual quality is still behind the current state-of-the-art models, we argue that strong normalizing flow models can help advancing research frontier by serving as building components of more powerful generative models.

This paper targets the challenge of real-time LiDAR re-simulation in dynamic driving scenarios. Recent approaches utilize neural radiance fields combined with the physical modeling of LiDAR sensors to achieve high-fidelity re-simulation results. Unfortunately, these methods face limitations due to high computational demands in large-scale scenes and cannot perform real-time LiDAR rendering. To overcome these constraints, we propose LiDAR-RT, a novel framework that supports real-time, physically accurate LiDAR re-simulation for driving scenes. Our primary contribution is the development of an efficient and effective rendering pipeline, which integrates Gaussian primitives and hardware-accelerated ray tracing technology. Specifically, we model the physical properties of LiDAR sensors using Gaussian primitives with learnable parameters and incorporate scene graphs to handle scene dynamics. Building upon this scene representation, our framework first constructs a bounding volume hierarchy (BVH), then casts rays for each pixel and generates novel LiDAR views through a differentiable rendering algorithm. Importantly, our framework supports realistic rendering with flexible scene editing operations and various sensor configurations. Extensive experiments across multiple public benchmarks demonstrate that our method outperforms state-of-the-art methods in terms of rendering quality and efficiency. Our project page is at https://zju3dv.github.io/lidar-rt.

We present a demonstration of a large language model engaging in alignment faking: selectively complying with its training objective in training to prevent modification of its behavior out of training. First, we give Claude 3 Opus a system prompt stating it is being trained to answer all queries, even harmful ones, which conflicts with its prior training to refuse such queries. To allow the model to infer when it is in training, we say it will be trained only on conversations with free users, not paid users. We find the model complies with harmful queries from free users 14% of the time, versus almost never for paid users. Explaining this gap, in almost all cases where the model complies with a harmful query from a free user, we observe explicit alignment-faking reasoning, with the model stating it is strategically answering harmful queries in training to preserve its preferred harmlessness behavior out of training. Next, we study a more realistic setting where information about the training process is provided not in a system prompt, but by training on synthetic documents that mimic pre-training data--and observe similar alignment faking. Finally, we study the effect of actually training the model to comply with harmful queries via reinforcement learning, which we find increases the rate of alignment-faking reasoning to 78%, though also increases compliance even out of training. We additionally observe other behaviors such as the model exfiltrating its weights when given an easy opportunity. While we made alignment faking easier by telling the model when and by what criteria it was being trained, we did not instruct the model to fake alignment or give it any explicit goal. As future models might infer information about their training process without being told, our results suggest a risk of alignment faking in future models, whether due to a benign preference--as in this case--or not.

Physics-based deep learning frameworks have shown to be effective in accurately modeling the dynamics of complex physical systems with generalization capability across problem inputs. Data-driven networks like GNN, Neural Operators have proved to be very effective in generalizing the model across unseen domain and resolutions. But one of the most critical issues in these data-based models is the computational cost of generating training datasets. Complex phenomena can only be captured accurately using deep networks with large training datasets. Furthermore, numerical error of training samples is propagated in the model errors, thus requiring the need for accurate data, i.e. FEM solutions on high-resolution meshes. Multi-fidelity methods offer a potential solution to reduce the training data requirements. To this end, we propose a novel GNN architecture, Multi-Fidelity U-Net, that utilizes the advantages of the multi-fidelity methods for enhancing the performance of the GNN model. The proposed architecture utilizes the capability of GNNs to manage complex geometries across different fidelity levels, while enabling flow of information between these levels for improved prediction accuracy for high-fidelity graphs. We show that the proposed approach performs significantly better in accuracy and data requirement and only requires training of a single network compared to other benchmark multi-fidelity approaches like transfer learning. We also present Multi-Fidelity U-Net Lite, a faster version of the proposed architecture, with 35% faster training, with 2 to 5% reduction in accuracy. We carry out extensive validation to show that the proposed models surpass traditional single-fidelity GNN models in their performance, thus providing feasible alternative for addressing computational and accuracy requirements where traditional high-fidelity simulations can be time-consuming.

This report examines the effect of mixed traffic, specifically the variation in robot vehicle (RV) penetration rates, on the fundamental diagrams at unsignalized intersections. Through a series of simulations across four distinct intersections, the relationship between traffic flow characteristics were analyzed. The RV penetration rates were varied from 0% to 100% in increments of 25%. The study reveals that while the presence of RVs influences traffic dynamics, the impact on flow and speed is not uniform across different levels of RV penetration. The fundamental diagrams indicate that intersections may experience an increase in capacity with varying levels of RVs, but this trend does not consistently hold as RV penetration approaches 100%. The variability observed across intersections suggests that local factors possibly influence the traffic flow characteristics. These findings highlight the complexity of integrating RVs into the existing traffic system and underscore the need for intersection-specific traffic management strategies to accommodate the transition towards increased RV presence.

Tenant evictions threaten housing stability and are a major concern for many cities. An open question concerns whether data-driven methods enhance outreach programs that target at-risk tenants to mitigate their risk of eviction. We propose a novel active geospatial search (AGS) modeling framework for this problem. AGS integrates property-level information in a search policy that identifies a sequence of rental units to canvas to both determine their eviction risk and provide support if needed. We propose a hierarchical reinforcement learning approach to learn a search policy for AGS that scales to large urban areas containing thousands of parcels, balancing exploration and exploitation and accounting for travel costs and a budget constraint. Crucially, the search policy adapts online to newly discovered information about evictions. Evaluation using eviction data for a large urban area demonstrates that the proposed framework and algorithmic approach are considerably more effective at sequentially identifying eviction cases than baseline methods.

This paper introduces posterior mean matching (PMM), a new method for generative modeling that is grounded in Bayesian inference. PMM uses conjugate pairs of distributions to model complex data of various modalities like images and text, offering a flexible alternative to existing methods like diffusion models. PMM models iteratively refine noisy approximations of the target distribution using updates from online Bayesian inference. PMM is flexible because its mechanics are based on general Bayesian models. We demonstrate this flexibility by developing specialized examples: a generative PMM model of real-valued data using the Normal-Normal model, a generative PMM model of count data using a Gamma-Poisson model, and a generative PMM model of discrete data using a Dirichlet-Categorical model. For the Normal-Normal PMM model, we establish a direct connection to diffusion models by showing that its continuous-time formulation converges to a stochastic differential equation (SDE). Additionally, for the Gamma-Poisson PMM, we derive a novel SDE driven by a Cox process, which is a significant departure from traditional Brownian motion-based generative models. PMMs achieve performance that is competitive with generative models for language modeling and image generation.

Drought is one of the most destructive and expensive natural disasters, severely impacting natural resources and risks by depleting water resources and diminishing agricultural yields. Under climate change, accurately predicting drought is critical for mitigating drought-induced risks. However, the intricate interplay among the physical and biological drivers that regulate droughts limits the predictability and understanding of drought, particularly at a subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) time scale. While deep learning has been demonstrated with potential in addressing climate forecasting challenges, its application to drought prediction has received relatively less attention. In this work, we propose a new dataset, DroughtSet, which integrates relevant predictive features and three drought indices from multiple remote sensing and reanalysis datasets across the contiguous United States (CONUS). DroughtSet specifically provides the machine learning community with a new real-world dataset to benchmark drought prediction models and more generally, time-series forecasting methods. Furthermore, we propose a spatial-temporal model SPDrought to predict and interpret S2S droughts. Our model learns from the spatial and temporal information of physical and biological features to predict three types of droughts simultaneously. Multiple strategies are employed to quantify the importance of physical and biological features for drought prediction. Our results provide insights for researchers to better understand the predictability and sensitivity of drought to biological and physical conditions. We aim to contribute to the climate field by proposing a new tool to predict and understand the occurrence of droughts and provide the AI community with a new benchmark to study deep learning applications in climate science.