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Ensemble RL through Classifier Models: Enhancing Risk-Return Trade-offs in Trading Strategies

arXiv.org Machine Learning

This paper presents a comprehensive study on the use of ensemble Reinforcement Learning (RL) models in financial trading strategies, leveraging classifier models to enhance performance. By combining RL algorithms such as A2C, PPO, and SAC with traditional classifiers like Support Vector Machines (SVM), Decision Trees, and Logistic Regression, we investigate how different classifier groups can be integrated to improve risk-return trade-offs. The study evaluates the effectiveness of various ensemble methods, comparing them with individual RL models across key financial metrics, including Cumulative Returns, Sharpe Ratios (SR), Calmar Ratios, and Maximum Drawdown (MDD). Our results demonstrate that ensemble methods consistently outperform base models in terms of risk-adjusted returns, providing better management of drawdowns and overall stability. However, we identify the sensitivity of ensemble performance to the choice of variance threshold {\tau}, highlighting the importance of dynamic {\tau} adjustment to achieve optimal performance. This study emphasizes the value of combining RL with classifiers for adaptive decision-making, with implications for financial trading, robotics, and other dynamic environments.


A Review of Artificial Intelligence Impacting Statistical Process Monitoring and Future Directions

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

It has been 100 years since statistical process control (SPC) or statistical process monitoring (SPM) was first introduced for production processes and later applied to service, healthcare, and other industries. The techniques applied to SPM applications are mostly statistically oriented. Recent advances in Artificial Intelligence (AI) have reinvigorated the imagination of adopting AI for SPM applications. This manuscript begins with a concise review of the historical development of the statistically based SPM methods. Next, this manuscript explores AI and Machine Learning (ML) algorithms and methods applied in various SPM applications, addressing quality characteristics of univariate, multivariate, profile, and image. These AI methods can be classified into the following categories: classification, pattern recognition, time series applications, and generative AI. Specifically, different kinds of neural networks, such as artificial neural networks (ANN), convolutional neural networks (CNN), recurrent neural networks (RNN), and generative adversarial networks (GAN), are among the most implemented AI methods impacting SPM. Finally, this manuscript outlines a couple of future directions that harness the potential of the Large Multimodal Model (LMM) for advancing SPM research and applications in complex systems. The ultimate objective is to transform statistical process monitoring (SPM) into smart process control (SMPC), where corrective actions are autonomously implemented to either prevent quality issues or restore process performance.


TimePFN: Effective Multivariate Time Series Forecasting with Synthetic Data

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The diversity of time series applications and scarcity of domain-specific data highlight the need for time-series models with strong few-shot learning capabilities. In this work, we propose a novel training scheme and a transformer-based architecture, collectively referred to as TimePFN, for multivariate time-series (MTS) forecasting. TimePFN is based on the concept of Prior-data Fitted Networks (PFN), which aims to approximate Bayesian inference. Our approach consists of (1) generating synthetic MTS data through diverse Gaussian process kernels and the linear coregionalization method, and (2) a novel MTS architecture capable of utilizing both temporal and cross-channel dependencies across all input patches. We evaluate TimePFN on several benchmark datasets and demonstrate that it outperforms the existing state-of-the-art models for MTS forecasting in both zero-shot and few-shot settings. Notably, fine-tuning TimePFN with as few as 500 data points nearly matches full dataset training error, and even 50 data points yield competitive results. We also find that TimePFN exhibits strong univariate forecasting performance, attesting to its generalization ability. Overall, this work unlocks the power of synthetic data priors for MTS forecasting and facilitates strong zero-and few-shot forecasting performance. Code -- https://github.com/egetaga/TimePFN 1 Introduction Natural language processing has achieved remarkable success driven by advances in neural architectures and data pipelines. These advances underlie modern language and vision-language models that exhibit remarkable zero-shot and few-shot learning capabilities. Inspired by these, researchers have started exploring whether such methods and ideas could be extended to time series forecasting. For instance, a notable line of work (Zhou et al. 2021; Wu et al. 2021; Zhou et al. 2022; Zhang and Y an 2023) examine the use of transformer architecture (V aswani et al. 2017) in time-series forecasting. More recently, there is also a push toward building foundation models for time series tasks (Ansari et al. 2024). However, the heterogeneous nature of time series data brings additional complications. As shown by (Zeng et al. 2023), even simple linear models are shown toTo appear in AAAI-2025 as a conference paper.


Learning Humanoid Locomotion with World Model Reconstruction

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Humanoid robots are designed to navigate environments accessible to humans using their legs. However, classical research has primarily focused on controlled laboratory settings, resulting in a gap in developing controllers for navigating complex real-world terrains. This challenge mainly arises from the limitations and noise in sensor data, which hinder the robot's understanding of itself and the environment. In this study, we introduce World Model Reconstruction (WMR), an end-to-end learning-based approach for blind humanoid locomotion across challenging terrains. We propose training an estimator to explicitly reconstruct the world state and utilize it to enhance the locomotion policy. The locomotion policy takes inputs entirely from the reconstructed information. The policy and the estimator are trained jointly; however, the gradient between them is intentionally cut off. This ensures that the estimator focuses solely on world reconstruction, independent of the locomotion policy's updates. We evaluated our model on rough, deformable, and slippery surfaces in real-world scenarios, demonstrating robust adaptability and resistance to interference. The robot successfully completed a 3.2 km hike without any human assistance, mastering terrains covered with ice and snow.


An Autonomous Network Orchestration Framework Integrating Large Language Models with Continual Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Y ou can use this material personally. The DOI will be supplied as soon as it becomes available. Abstract --6G networks aim to achieve global coverage, massive connectivity, and ultra-stringent requirements. Space-Air-Ground Integrated Networks (SAGINs) and Semantic Communication (SemCom) are essential for realizing these goals, yet they introduce considerable complexity in resource orchestration. Drawing inspiration from research in robotics, a viable solution to manage this complexity is the application of Large Language Models (LLMs). Although the use of LLMs in network orchestration has recently gained attention, existing solutions have not sufficiently addressed LLM hallucinations or their adaptation to network dynamics. T o address this gap, this paper proposes a framework called Autonomous Reinforcement Coordination (ARC) for a SemCom-enabled SAGIN. This framework employs an LLM-based Retrieval-Augmented Generator (RAG) monitors services, users, and resources and processes the collected data, while a Hierarchical Action Planner (HAP) orchestrates resources. The LLMs utilize Chain-of-Thought (CoT) reasoning for few-shot learning, empowered by contrastive learning, while the RL agents employ replay buffer management for continual learning, thereby achieving efficiency, accuracy, and adaptability. Simulations are provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of ARC, along with a comprehensive discussion on potential future research directions to enhance and upgrade ARC.


Integrating Weather Station Data and Radar for Precipitation Nowcasting: SmaAt-fUsion and SmaAt-Krige-GNet

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In recent years, data-driven, deep learning-based approaches for precipitation nowcasting have attracted significant attention, showing promising results. However, many existing models fail to fully exploit the extensive atmospheric information available, relying primarily on precipitation data alone. This study introduces two novel deep learning architectures, SmaAt-fUsion and SmaAt-Krige-GNet, specifically designed to enhance precipitation nowcasting by integrating multi-variable weather station data with radar datasets. By leveraging additional meteorological information, these models improve representation learning in the latent space, resulting in enhanced nowcasting performance. The SmaAt-fUsion model extends the SmaAt-UNet framework by incorporating weather station data through a convolutional layer, integrating it into the bottleneck of the network. Conversely, the SmaAt-Krige-GNet model combines precipitation maps with weather station data processed using Kriging, a geo-statistical interpolation method, to generate variable-specific maps. These maps are then utilized in a dual-encoder architecture based on SmaAt-GNet, allowing multi-level data integration. Experimental evaluations were conducted using four years (2016--2019) of weather station and precipitation radar data from the Netherlands. Results demonstrate that SmaAt-Krige-GNet outperforms the standard SmaAt-UNet, which relies solely on precipitation radar data, in low precipitation scenarios, while SmaAt-fUsion surpasses SmaAt-UNet in both low and high precipitation scenarios. This highlights the potential of incorporating discrete weather station data to enhance the performance of deep learning-based weather nowcasting models.


Good Representation, Better Explanation: Role of Convolutional Neural Networks in Transformer-Based Remote Sensing Image Captioning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Remote Sensing Image Captioning (RSIC) is the process of generating meaningful descriptions from remote sensing images. Recently, it has gained significant attention, with encoder-decoder models serving as the backbone for generating meaningful captions. The encoder extracts essential visual features from the input image, transforming them into a compact representation, while the decoder utilizes this representation to generate coherent textual descriptions. Recently, transformer-based models have gained significant popularity due to their ability to capture long-range dependencies and contextual information. The decoder has been well explored for text generation, whereas the encoder remains relatively unexplored. However, optimizing the encoder is crucial as it directly influences the richness of extracted features, which in turn affects the quality of generated captions. To address this gap, we systematically evaluate twelve different convolutional neural network (CNN) architectures within a transformer-based encoder framework to assess their effectiveness in RSIC. The evaluation consists of two stages: first, a numerical analysis categorizes CNNs into different clusters, based on their performance. The best performing CNNs are then subjected to human evaluation from a human-centric perspective by a human annotator. Additionally, we analyze the impact of different search strategies, namely greedy search and beam search, to ensure the best caption. The results highlight the critical role of encoder selection in improving captioning performance, demonstrating that specific CNN architectures significantly enhance the quality of generated descriptions for remote sensing images. Introduction With the advancement of remote sensing technologies and machine learning-based methods, the demand for Remote Sensing Image Captioning (RSIC) [1, 2] is growing rapidly. It plays a crucial role in various fields, including environmental monitoring, urban planning, and disaster management, by providing automated textual descriptions of satellite images.


A Fenchel-Young Loss Approach to Data-Driven Inverse Optimization

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Data-driven inverse optimization seeks to estimate unknown parameters in an optimization model from observations of optimization solutions. Many existing methods are ineffective in handling noisy and suboptimal solution observations and also suffer from computational challenges. In this paper, we build a connection between inverse optimization and the Fenchel-Young (FY) loss originally designed for structured prediction, proposing a FY loss approach to data-driven inverse optimization. This new approach is amenable to efficient gradient-based optimization, hence much more efficient than existing methods. We provide theoretical guarantees for the proposed method and use extensive simulation and real-data experiments to demonstrate its significant advantage in parameter estimation accuracy, decision error and computational speed.


Towards a Reward-Free Reinforcement Learning Framework for Vehicle Control

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Reinforcement learning plays a crucial role in vehicle control by guiding agents to learn optimal control strategies through designing or learning appropriate reward signals. However, in vehicle control applications, rewards typically need to be manually designed while considering multiple implicit factors, which easily introduces human biases. Although imitation learning methods does not rely on explicit reward signals, they necessitate high-quality expert actions, which are often challenging to acquire. To address these issues, we propose a reward-free reinforcement learning framework (RFRLF). This framework directly learns the target states to optimize agent behavior through a target state prediction network (TSPN) and a reward-free state-guided policy network (RFSGPN), avoiding the dependence on manually designed reward signals. Specifically, the policy network is learned via minimizing the differences between the predicted state and the expert state. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed RFRLF in controlling vehicle driving, showing its advantages in improving learning efficiency and adapting to reward-free environments.


Sheaf theory: from deep geometry to deep learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper provides an overview of the applications of sheaf theory in deep learning, data science, and computer science in general. The primary text of this work serves as a friendly introduction to applied and computational sheaf theory accessible to those with modest mathematical familiarity. We describe intuitions and motivations underlying sheaf theory shared by both theoretical researchers and practitioners, bridging classical mathematical theory and its more recent implementations within signal processing and deep learning. We observe that most notions commonly considered specific to cellular sheaves translate to sheaves on arbitrary posets, providing an interesting avenue for further generalization of these methods in applications, and we present a new algorithm to compute sheaf cohomology on arbitrary finite posets in response. By integrating classical theory with recent applications, this work reveals certain blind spots in current machine learning practices. We conclude with a list of problems related to sheaf-theoretic applications that we find mathematically insightful and practically instructive to solve. To ensure the exposition of sheaf theory is self-contained, a rigorous mathematical introduction is provided in appendices which moves from an introduction of diagrams and sheaves to the definition of derived functors, higher order cohomology, sheaf Laplacians, sheaf diffusion, and interconnections of these subjects therein.2020