Remote sensing (RS) techniques, by enabling non-contact acquisition of extensive ground observations, have become a valuable tool for corn yield prediction. Traditional process-based (PB) models are limited by fixed input features and struggle to incorporate large volumes of RS data. In contrast, machine learning (ML) models are often criticized for being ``black boxes'' with limited interpretability. To address these limitations, we used Knowledge-Guided Machine Learning (KGML), which combined the strengths of both approaches and fully used RS data. However, previous KGML methods overlooked the crucial role of soil moisture in plant growth. To bridge this gap, we proposed the Knowledge-Guided Machine Learning with Soil Moisture (KGML-SM) framework, using soil moisture as an intermediate variable to emphasize its key role in plant development. Additionally, based on the prior knowledge that the model may overestimate under drought conditions, we designed a drought-aware loss function that penalizes predicted yield in drought-affected areas. Our experiments showed that the KGML-SM model outperformed other ML models. Finally, we explored the relationships between drought, soil moisture, and corn yield prediction, assessing the importance of various features and analyzing how soil moisture impacts corn yield predictions across different regions and time periods.

Wind power producers (WPPs) participating in short-term power markets face significant imbalance costs due to their non-dispatchable and variable production. While some WPPs have a large enough market share to influence prices with their bidding decisions, existing optimal bidding methods rarely account for this aspect. Price-maker approaches typically model bidding as a bilevel optimization problem, but these methods require complex market models, estimating other participants' actions, and are computationally demanding. To address these challenges, we propose an online learning algorithm that leverages contextual information to optimize WPP bids in the price-maker setting. We formulate the strategic bidding problem as a contextual multi-armed bandit, ensuring provable regret minimization. The algorithm's performance is evaluated against various benchmark strategies using a numerical simulation of the German day-ahead and real-time markets.

Benchmark Data Contamination (BDC)-the inclusion of benchmark testing samples in the training set-has raised increasing concerns in Large Language Model (LLM) evaluation, leading to falsely inflated performance estimates and undermining evaluation reliability. To address this, researchers have proposed various mitigation strategies to update existing benchmarks, including modifying original questions or generating new ones based on them. However, a rigorous examination of the effectiveness of these mitigation strategies remains lacking. In this paper, we design a systematic and controlled pipeline along with two novel metrics-fidelity and contamination resistance-to provide a fine-grained and comprehensive assessment of existing BDC mitigation strategies. Previous assessment methods, such as accuracy drop and accuracy matching, focus solely on aggregate accuracy, often leading to incomplete or misleading conclusions. Our metrics address this limitation by emphasizing question-level evaluation result matching. Extensive experiments with 10 LLMs, 5 benchmarks, 20 BDC mitigation strategies, and 2 contamination scenarios reveal that no existing strategy significantly improves resistance over the vanilla case (i.e., no benchmark update) across all benchmarks, and none effectively balances fidelity and contamination resistance. These findings underscore the urgent need for designing more effective BDC mitigation strategies. Our code repository is available at https://github.com/ASTRAL-Group/BDC_mitigation_assessment.

For pre-training of MoE (Mixture-of-Experts) models, one of the main issues is unbalanced expert loads, which may cause routing collapse or increased computational overhead. Existing methods contain the Loss-Controlled method and the Loss-Free method, where both the unbalanced degrees at first several training steps are still high and decrease slowly. In this work, we propose BIP-Based Balancing, an expert load balancing algorithm based on binary integer programming (BIP). The algorithm maintains an additional vector q on each MoE layer that can help change the top-K order of s by solving a binary integer programming with very small time costs. We implement the algorithm on two MoE language models: 16-expert (0.3B) and 64-expert (1.1B). The experimental results show that on both models comparing with the Loss-Controlled method and the Loss-Free method, our algorithm trains models with the lowest perplexities, while saves at least 13% of pre-training time compared with the Loss-Controlled method. Within our current knowledge, this is the first routing algorithm that achieves maintaining load balance status on every expert in every MoE layer from the first step to the last step during the whole pre-training process, while the trained MoE models also perform well. The code material of this work is available at https://github.com/sunyuanLLM/bip_routing_algorithm.

The quality of probabilistic forecasts is crucial for decision-making under uncertainty. While proper scoring rules incentivize truthful reporting of precise forecasts, they fall short when forecasters face epistemic uncertainty about their beliefs, limiting their use in safety-critical domains where decision-makers (DMs) prioritize proper uncertainty management. To address this, we propose a framework for scoring imprecise forecasts -- forecasts given as a set of beliefs. Despite existing impossibility results for deterministic scoring rules, we enable truthful elicitation by drawing connection to social choice theory and introducing a two-way communication framework where DMs first share their aggregation rules (e.g., averaging or min-max) used in downstream decisions for resolving forecast ambiguity. This, in turn, helps forecasters resolve indecision during elicitation. We further show that truthful elicitation of imprecise forecasts is achievable using proper scoring rules randomized over the aggregation procedure. Our approach allows DM to elicit and integrate the forecaster's epistemic uncertainty into their decision-making process, thus improving credibility.

Large language models (LLMs) have recently transformed from text-based assistants to autonomous agents capable of planning, reasoning, and iteratively improving their actions. While numerical reward signals and verifiers can effectively rank candidate actions, they often provide limited contextual guidance. In contrast, natural language feedback better aligns with the generative capabilities of LLMs, providing richer and more actionable suggestions. However, parsing and implementing this feedback effectively can be challenging for LLM-based agents. In this work, we introduce Critique-Guided Improvement (CGI), a novel two-player framework, comprising an actor model that explores an environment and a critic model that generates detailed nature language feedback. By training the critic to produce fine-grained assessments and actionable revisions, and the actor to utilize these critiques, our approach promotes more robust exploration of alternative strategies while avoiding local optima. Experiments in three interactive environments show that CGI outperforms existing baselines by a substantial margin. Notably, even a small critic model surpasses GPT-4 in feedback quality. The resulting actor achieves state-of-the-art performance, demonstrating the power of explicit iterative guidance to enhance decision-making in LLM-based agents.

Language models (LMs) are machine learning models designed to predict linguistic patterns by estimating the probability of word sequences based on large-scale datasets, such as text. LMs have a wide range of applications in natural language processing (NLP) tasks, including autocomplete and machine translation. Although larger datasets typically enhance LM performance, scalability remains a challenge due to constraints in computational power and resources. Distributed computing strategies offer essential solutions for improving scalability and managing the growing computational demand. Further, the use of sensitive datasets in training and deployment raises significant privacy concerns. Recent research has focused on developing decentralized techniques to enable distributed training and inference while utilizing diverse computational resources and enabling edge AI. This paper presents a survey on distributed solutions for various LMs, including large language models (LLMs), vision language models (VLMs), multimodal LLMs (MLLMs), and small language models (SLMs). While LLMs focus on processing and generating text, MLLMs are designed to handle multiple modalities of data (e.g., text, images, and audio) and to integrate them for broader applications. To this end, this paper reviews key advancements across the MLLM pipeline, including distributed training, inference, fine-tuning, and deployment, while also identifying the contributions, limitations, and future areas of improvement. Further, it categorizes the literature based on six primary focus areas of decentralization. Our analysis describes gaps in current methodologies for enabling distributed solutions for LMs and outline future research directions, emphasizing the need for novel solutions to enhance the robustness and applicability of distributed LMs.

We consider price competition among multiple sellers over a selling horizon of $T$ periods. In each period, sellers simultaneously offer their prices and subsequently observe their respective demand that is unobservable to competitors. The demand function for each seller depends on all sellers' prices through a private, unknown, and nonlinear relationship. To address this challenge, we propose a semi-parametric least-squares estimation of the nonlinear mean function, which does not require sellers to communicate demand information. We show that when all sellers employ our policy, their prices converge at a rate of $O(T^{-1/7})$ to the Nash equilibrium prices that sellers would reach if they were fully informed. Each seller incurs a regret of $O(T^{5/7})$ relative to a dynamic benchmark policy. A theoretical contribution of our work is proving the existence of equilibrium under shape-constrained demand functions via the concept of $s$-concavity and establishing regret bounds of our proposed policy. Technically, we also establish new concentration results for the least squares estimator under shape constraints. Our findings offer significant insights into dynamic competition-aware pricing and contribute to the broader study of non-parametric learning in strategic decision-making.

Information and free-energy maximization are physics principles that provide general rules for an agent to optimize actions in line with specific goals and policies. These principles are the building blocks for designing decision-making policies capable of efficient performance with only partial information. Notably, the information maximization principle has shown remarkable success in the classical bandit problem and has recently been shown to yield optimal algorithms for Gaussian and sub-Gaussian reward distributions. This article explores a broad extension of physics-based approaches to more complex and structured bandit problems. To this end, we cover three distinct types of bandit problems, where information maximization is adapted and leads to strong performance. Since the main challenge of information maximization lies in avoiding over-exploration, we highlight how information is tailored at various levels to mitigate this issue, paving the way for more efficient and robust decision-making strategies.

There is a realistic chance that one of the UK's largest oil refineries can be converted into a hub for green chemicals, sustainable fuels and plastics, Scotland's first minister says. Grangemouth oil refinery, which is being shut down by its UK and Chinese owners PetroIneos this year with the loss of 400 jobs, could become a world leader in low carbon chemicals and green fuels, John Swinney told media on Wednesday. The refinery's closure, after 100 years of production, is expected to hit up to 2,000 jobs in the east of Scotland. Trade union leaders and policymakers see Grangemouth as a casestudy in ensuring the transition from oil and gas is fair and just. Swinney said workers and local businesses faced "enormous difficulties".