Energy
Online Kernel Dynamic Mode Decomposition for Streaming Time Series Forecasting with Adaptive Windowing
Salazar, Christopher, Manohar, Krithika, Banerjee, Ashis G.
Real-time forecasting from streaming data poses critical challenges: handling non-stationary dynamics, operating under strict computational limits, and adapting rapidly without catastrophic forgetting. However, many existing approaches face trade-offs between accuracy, adaptability, and efficiency, particularly when deployed in constrained computing environments. We introduce WORK-DMD (Windowed Online Random Kernel Dynamic Mode Decomposition), a method that combines Random Fourier Features with online Dynamic Mode Decomposition to capture nonlinear dynamics through explicit feature mapping, while preserving fixed computational cost and competitive predictive accuracy across evolving data. WORK-DMD employs Sherman-Morrison updates within rolling windows, enabling continuous adaptation to evolving dynamics from only current data, eliminating the need for lengthy training or large storage requirements for historical data. Experiments on benchmark datasets across several domains show that WORK-DMD achieves higher accuracy than several state-of-the-art online forecasting methods, while requiring only a single pass through the data and demonstrating particularly strong performance in short-term forecasting. Our results show that combining kernel evaluations with adaptive matrix updates achieves strong predictive performance with minimal data requirements. This sample efficiency offers a practical alternative to deep learning for streaming forecasting applications.
BeLLMan: Controlling LLM Congestion
Reddy, Tella Rajashekhar, Deshmukh, Atharva, Tandon, Karan, Gandhi, Rohan, Parayil, Anjaly, Bhattacherjee, Debopam
Large language model (LLM) applications are blindfolded to the infrastructure underneath and generate tokens autoregressively, indifferent to the system load, thus risking inferencing latency inflation and poor user experience. Our first-cut controller, named beLLMan, enables the LLM infrastructure to actively and progressively signal the first-party LLM application to adjust the output length in response to changing system load. On a real testbed with H100 GPUs, beLLMan helps keep inferencing latency under control (upto 8X lower end-to-end latency) and reduces energy consumption by 25% (while serving 19% more requests) during periods of congestion for a summarization workload.
Hybrid Autoencoder-Based Framework for Early Fault Detection in Wind Turbines
Nair, Rekha R, Babu, Tina, Panthakkan, Alavikunhu, Balusamy, Balamurugan, Mansoor, Wathiq
Wind turbine reliability is critical to the growing renewable energy sector, where early fault detection significantly reduces downtime and maintenance costs. This paper introduces a novel ensemble-based deep learning framework for unsupervised anomaly detection in wind turbines. The method integrates Variational Autoencoders (VAE), LSTM Autoencoders, and Transformer architectures, each capturing different temporal and contextual patterns from high-dimensional SCADA data. A unique feature engineering pipeline extracts temporal, statistical, and frequency-domain indicators, which are then processed by the deep models. Ensemble scoring combines model predictions, followed by adaptive thresholding to detect operational anomalies without requiring labeled fault data. Evaluated on the CARE dataset containing 89 years of real-world turbine data across three wind farms, the proposed method achieves an AUC-ROC of 0.947 and early fault detection up to 48 hours prior to failure. This approach offers significant societal value by enabling predictive maintenance, reducing turbine failures, and enhancing operational efficiency in large-scale wind energy deployments.
Extending Load Forecasting from Zonal Aggregates to Individual Nodes for Transmission System Operators
Triebe, Oskar, Passow, Fletcher, Wittner, Simon, Wagner, Leonie, Arend, Julio, Sun, Tao, Zanocco, Chad, Miltner, Marek, Ghesmati, Arezou, Tsai, Chen-Hao, Bergmeir, Christoph, Rajagopal, Ram
The reliability of local power grid infrastructure is challenged by sustainable energy developments increasing electric load uncertainty. Transmission System Operators (TSOs) need load forecasts of higher spatial resolution, extending current forecasting operations from zonal aggregates to individual nodes. However, nodal loads are less accurate to forecast and require a large number of individual forecasts, which are hard to manage for the human experts assessing risks in the control room's daily operations (operator). In collaboration with a TSO, we design a multi-level system that meets the needs of operators for hourly day-ahead load forecasting. Utilizing a uniquely extensive dataset of zonal and nodal net loads, we experimentally evaluate our system components. First, we develop an interpretable and scalable forecasting model that allows for TSOs to gradually extend zonal operations to include nodal forecasts. Second, we evaluate solutions to address the heterogeneity and volatility of nodal load, subject to a trade-off. Third, our system is manageable with a fully parallelized single-model forecasting workflow. Our results show accuracy and interpretability improvements for zonal forecasts, and substantial improvements for nodal forecasts. Keywords: Short-Term Load Forecast, Transmission System Operator, Global Forecasting Model, Hierarchical Forecasting, Distributed Energy Resources, Electrical Power Grid1. Introduction Electric transmission system operators (TSOs) face increasing volatility in electric load due to distributed and renewable energy generation, climate events, and electrification [1]. This volatility complicates load forecasting, which is essential to TSO operations. TSOs must ensure that electricity generation matches load at all times, and the distribution of power across their territory does not overwhelm any infrastructure component. To accomplish this, they use day-ahead load forecasts to inform where to dispatch generators each hour of the coming day. Growing electrification and distributed generation increase volatility of'net load' - local consumption minus generation - in some places and not others, as adoption of these technologies proceeds unevenly. This could put a TSO's medium-voltage grid components, for example sub-transmission lines and primary distribution substations, at risk of damage if load forecasts miss unexpected local changes [2, 3, 4].
Learning More with Less: A Generalizable, Self-Supervised Framework for Privacy-Preserving Capacity Estimation with EV Charging Data
Arunan, Anushiya, Qin, Yan, Li, Xiaoli, Tan, U-Xuan, Poor, H. Vincent, Yuen, Chau
This manuscript has been accepted in IEEE Transactions on Industrial Informatics. Personal use of this material is permitted. Abstract--Accurate battery capacity estimation is key to alleviating consumer concerns about battery performance and reliability of electric vehicles (EVs). However, practical data limitations imposed by stringent privacy regulations and labeled data shortages hamper the development of generalizable capacity estimation models that remain robust to real-world data distribution shifts. While self-supervised learning can leverage unlabeled data, existing techniques are not particularly designed to learn effectively from challenging field data--let alone from privacy-friendly data, which are often less feature-rich and noisier . In this work, we propose a first-of-its-kind capacity estimation model based on self-supervised pre-training, developed on a large-scale dataset of privacy-friendly charging data snippets from real-world EV operations. Our pre-training framework, snippet similarity-weighted masked input reconstruction, is designed to learn rich, generalizable representations even from less feature-rich and fragmented privacy-friendly data. Our key innovation lies in harnessing contrastive learning to first capture high-level similarities among fragmented snippets that otherwise lack meaningful context. With our snippet-wise contrastive learning and subsequent similarity-weighted masked reconstruction, we are able to learn rich representations of both granular charging patterns within individual snippets and high-level associative relationships across different snippets. Bolstered by this rich representation learning, our model consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, achieving 31.9%
Learning to Capture Rocks using an Excavator: A Reinforcement Learning Approach with Guiding Reward Formulation
Molaei, Amirmasoud, Heravi, Mohammad, Ghabcheloo, Reza
Rock capturing with standard excavator buckets is a challenging task typically requiring the expertise of skilled operators. Unlike soil digging, it involves manipulating large, irregular rocks in unstructured environments where complex contact interactions with granular material make model-based control impractical. Existing autonomous excavation methods focus mainly on continuous media or rely on specialized grippers, limiting their applicability to real-world construction sites. This paper introduces a fully data-driven control framework for rock capturing that eliminates the need for explicit modeling of rock or soil properties. Robustness is enhanced through extensive domain randomization of rock geometry, density, and mass, as well as the initial configurations of the bucket, rock, and goal position. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to develop and evaluate an RL-based controller for the rock capturing task. Experimental results show that the policy generalizes well to unseen rocks and varying soil conditions, achieving high success rates comparable to those of human participants while maintaining machine stability. Corresponding author Email address: amirmasoud.molaei@tuni.fi Keywords: Excavators, Automatic rock capturing, Reinforcement learning, High-fidelity simulation, Guiding Reward Formulation, Non-prehensile manipulation 1. Introduction Autonomous excavation holds a great promise in addressing increasing demands of the mining and construction industries, two of the largest and most essential sectors worldwide. The excavator is one of the most widely used and versatile heavy-duty mobile machines (HDMMs), which is typically operated through a hydraulic system. Excavators are utilized for a wide range of earth-moving tasks, including digging, trenching, grading, and in particular material handling. Despite their versatility, traditional manual operation of excavators can result in low efficiency, increased physical strain on operators, and exposure to hazardous environments like open-pit mines. These challenges underscore the need for automation to enhance safety and productivity. An excavator is primarily composed of three major components, the traveling body, swing body, and the front digging manipulator. The digging manipulator, includes three main parts, boom, arm, and bucket, which are actuated by hydraulic cylinders. Additionally, joints connect the swing body, boom, arm, and bucket, allowing for flexible and precise motion [1, 2, 3, 4].
F-Adapter: Frequency-Adaptive Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning in Scientific Machine Learning
Zhang, Hangwei, Kang, Chun, Wang, Yan, Zou, Difan
Parameter-efficient fine-tuning (PEFT) of powerful pre-trained models for complex downstream tasks has proven effective in vision and language processing, yet this paradigm remains unexplored in scientific machine learning, where the objective is to model complex physical systems. We conduct the first systematic study of PEFT for pre-trained Large Operator Models (LOMs) obtained by scaling variants of Fourier Neural Operator. First, we observe that the widely used Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) yields markedly poorer performance on LOMs than Adapter tuning. Then, we further theoretically establish that stacked LoRA incurs a depth-amplified lower bound on approximation error within Fourier layers, whereas adapters retain universal approximation capacity and, by concentrating parameters on energy-dominant low-frequency modes, attain exponentially decaying error with bottleneck width in the Fourier domain. Motivated by the robust empirical gains of adapters and by our theoretical characterization of PDE solutions as spectrally sparse, we introduce Frequency-Adaptive Adapter (F-Adapter). F-Adapter allocates adapter capacity based on spectral complexity, assigning higher-dimension modules to low-frequency components and lower-dimension modules to high-frequency components. Our F-Adapters establish state-of-the-art (SOTA) results on multiple challenging 3D Navier-Stokes benchmarks, markedly enhancing both generalization and spectral fidelity over LoRA and other PEFT techniques commonly used in LLMs. To the best of our knowledge, this work is the first to explore PEFT for scientific machine-learning and establishes F-Adapter as an effective paradigm for this domain.
Chronos-2: From Univariate to Universal Forecasting
Ansari, Abdul Fatir, Shchur, Oleksandr, Küken, Jaris, Auer, Andreas, Han, Boran, Mercado, Pedro, Rangapuram, Syama Sundar, Shen, Huibin, Stella, Lorenzo, Zhang, Xiyuan, Goswami, Mononito, Kapoor, Shubham, Maddix, Danielle C., Guerron, Pablo, Hu, Tony, Yin, Junming, Erickson, Nick, Desai, Prateek Mutalik, Wang, Hao, Rangwala, Huzefa, Karypis, George, Wang, Yuyang, Bohlke-Schneider, Michael
Pretrained time series models have enabled inference-only forecasting systems that produce accurate predictions without task-specific training. However, existing approaches largely focus on univariate forecasting, limiting their applicability in real-world scenarios where multivariate data and covariates play a crucial role. We present Chronos-2, a pretrained model capable of handling univariate, multivariate, and covariate-informed forecasting tasks in a zero-shot manner. Chronos-2 employs a group attention mechanism that facilitates in-context learning (ICL) through efficient information sharing across multiple time series within a group, which may represent sets of related series, variates of a multivariate series, or targets and covariates in a forecasting task. These general capabilities are achieved through training on synthetic datasets that impose diverse multivariate structures on univariate series. Chronos-2 delivers state-of-the-art performance across three comprehensive benchmarks: fev-bench, GIFT-Eval, and Chronos Benchmark II. On fev-bench, which emphasizes multivariate and covariate-informed forecasting, Chronos-2's universal ICL capabilities lead to substantial improvements over existing models. On tasks involving covariates, it consistently outperforms baselines by a wide margin. Case studies in the energy and retail domains further highlight its practical advantages. The in-context learning capabilities of Chronos-2 establish it as a general-purpose forecasting model that can be used "as is" in real-world forecasting pipelines.
Fears over higher rates as Georgia moves to provide more electricity for AI datacenters
State's Republican-led public service commission to decide on power expansion and prices, as Democrats vie for voice Georgia is facing the largest demand for electricity in its history, driven by nation-leading datacenter construction. The Georgia Power company has made an unprecedented bid to the agency that oversees the utility for about 10 additional gigawatts of energy in the coming years - enough to power 8.3m homes, at an estimated cost of nearly $16bn, according to the Southern Environmental Law Center . But those huge numbers are not primarily for homes or local businesses in Georgia . Instead about 80% of the company's ask is driven by datacenters, primarily for artificial intelligence, according to Tom Krause, spokesperson for the state's public service commission, or PSC. It is the largest increase ever considered by the commission in a multiyear plan and comes as the Atlanta metro area led the nation in datacenter construction last year - a phenomenon playing out across the US and increasingly sparking protests and pushback.
This Data Scientist Sees Progress in the Climate Change Fight
Countries have fallen behind on emissions goals, but Hannah Ritchie looks at the numbers and sees real gains. Get your news from a source that's not owned and controlled by oligarchs. It has been 10 years since countries signed on to the Paris Agreement, and emissions and temperatures continue to reach new highs, fueling unprecedented weather disasters around the globe. Meanwhile, the shift to clean energy is facing powerful headwinds in the United States, where climate policies are being reversed and support for clean energy is withdrawn. Yet, while the headlines paint a dismal picture of efforts to rein in climate change, the numbers often tell a different story. That is the assessment of data scientist Hannah Ritchie, a researcher at the University of Oxford and deputy editor of the publication .