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ForecastGAN: A Decomposition-Based Adversarial Framework for Multi-Horizon Time Series Forecasting

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Time series forecasting is essential across domains from finance to supply chain management. This paper introduces ForecastGAN, a novel decomposition based adversarial framework addressing limitations in existing approaches for multi-horizon predictions. Although transformer models excel in long-term forecasting, they often underperform in short-term scenarios and typically ignore categorical features. ForecastGAN operates through three integrated modules: a Decomposition Module that extracts seasonality and trend components; a Model Selection Module that identifies optimal neural network configurations based on forecasting horizon; and an Adversarial Training Module that enhances prediction robustness through Conditional Generative Adversarial Network training. Unlike conventional approaches, ForecastGAN effectively integrates both numerical and categorical features. We validate our framework on eleven benchmark multivariate time series datasets that span various forecasting horizons. The results show that ForecastGAN consistently outperforms state-of-the-art transformer models for short-term forecasting while remaining competitive for long-term horizons. This research establishes a more generalizable approach to time series forecasting that adapts to specific contexts while maintaining strong performance across diverse data characteristics without extensive hyperparameter tuning.


To unearth their past, Amazonian people turn to 'a language white men understand'

Science

The site, a few kilometers from her own hut in Ipatsé, a Kuikuro village in the Xingu Indigenous territory, was once the backyard of her great-grandparents' house. As she scrapes the brown earth with a trowel, she soon spots a black ceramic shard. It is only about the size of her palm, and this is her first day ever on an archaeological excavation. But she immediately recognizes what the object once was. "It's an alato," she says, showing the piece to a group of archaeologists and other Kuikuro who have gathered to watch the excavation in the village of Anitahagu. An alato, Yamána explains, is a large pan used to cook beiju, a white flatbread made with yucca flour that's eaten almost every day in her village. Her grandmother still has one in the backyard fire pit where she prepares most meals, just as countless Kuikuro women did before her. This alato likely belonged to her great-grandmother on her mother's side.


Stop worrying about your AI footprint. Look at the big picture instead.

MIT Technology Review

Look at the big picture instead. Why focusing on the energy system and large companies is more important than policing individual behavior. Picture it: I'm minding my business at a party, parked by the snack table (of course). A friend of a friend wanders up, and we strike up a conversation. It quickly turns to work, and upon learning that I'm a climate technology reporter, my new acquaintance says something like: "Should I be using AI? I've heard it's awful for the environment." We did the math on AI's energy footprint.


From gas to groceries, has Trump kept his promise to tackle rising prices?

BBC News

From gas to groceries, has Trump kept his promise to tackle rising prices? President Donald Trump was swept to power for a second time on the back of a central campaign promise to tackle inflation. The steep rise in the cost of living was top of voters' minds and Trump blamed President Joe Biden. He also made sweeping promises to bring down prices for Americans starting on day one. One year on from his victory, BBC Verify revisits some of the president's claims.


Reinforcement Learning Foundations for Deep Research Systems: A Survey

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Deep research systems, agentic AI that solve complex, multi-step tasks by coordinating reasoning, search across the open web and user files, and tool use, are moving toward hierarchical deployments with a Planner, Coordinator, and Executors. In practice, training entire stacks end-to-end remains impractical, so most work trains a single planner connected to core tools such as search, browsing, and code. While SFT imparts protocol fidelity, it suffers from imitation and exposure biases and underuses environment feedback. Preference alignment methods such as DPO are schema and proxy-dependent, off-policy, and weak for long-horizon credit assignment and multi-objective trade-offs. A further limitation of SFT and DPO is their reliance on human defined decision points and subskills through schema design and labeled comparisons. Reinforcement learning aligns with closed-loop, tool-interaction research by optimizing trajectory-level policies, enabling exploration, recovery behaviors, and principled credit assignment, and it reduces dependence on such human priors and rater biases. This survey is, to our knowledge, the first dedicated to the RL foundations of deep research systems. It systematizes recent work along three axes: (i) data synthesis and curation; (ii) RL methods for agentic research covering stability, sample efficiency, long context handling, reward and credit design, multi-objective optimization, and multimodal integration; and (iii) agentic RL training systems and frameworks. We also cover agent architecture and coordination, as well as evaluation and benchmarks, including recent QA, VQA, long-form synthesis, and domain-grounded, tool-interaction tasks. We distill recurring patterns, surface infrastructure bottlenecks, and offer practical guidance for training robust, transparent deep research agents with RL.


MetaFed: Advancing Privacy, Performance, and Sustainability in Federated Metaverse Systems

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Abstract--The rapid expansion of immersive Metaverse applications introduces complex challenges at the intersection of performance, privacy, and environmental sustainability. Centralized architectures fall short in addressing these demands, often resulting in elevated energy consumption, latency, and privacy concerns. This paper proposes MetaF ed, a decentralized federated learning (FL) framework that enables sustainable and intelligent resource orchestration for Metaverse environments. MetaFed integrates (i) multi-agent reinforcement learning for dynamic client selection, (ii) privacy-preserving FL using homomorphic encryption, and (iii) carbon-aware scheduling aligned with renewable energy availability. Evaluations on MNIST and CIF AR-10 using lightweight ResNet architectures demonstrate that MetaFed achieves up to 25% reduction in carbon emissions compared to conventional approaches, while maintaining high accuracy and minimal communication overhead.


Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning for Autonomous Multi-Satellite Earth Observation: A Realistic Case Study

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The exponential growth of Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites has revolutionised Earth Observation (EO) missions, addressing challenges in climate monitoring, disaster management, and more. However, autonomous coordination in multi-satellite systems remains a fundamental challenge. Traditional optimisation approaches struggle to handle the real-time decision-making demands of dynamic EO missions, necessitating the use of Reinforcement Learning (RL) and Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL). In this paper, we investigate RL-based autonomous EO mission planning by modelling single-satellite operations and extending to multi-satellite constellations using MARL frameworks. We address key challenges, including energy and data storage limitations, uncertainties in satellite observations, and the complexities of decentralised coordination under partial observability. By leveraging a near-realistic satellite simulation environment, we evaluate the training stability and performance of state-of-the-art MARL algorithms, including PPO, IPPO, MAPPO, and HAPPO. Our results demonstrate that MARL can effectively balance imaging and resource management while addressing non-stationarity and reward interdependency in multi-satellite coordination. The insights gained from this study provide a foundation for autonomous satellite operations, offering practical guidelines for improving policy learning in decentralised EO missions.


SLED: A Speculative LLM Decoding Framework for Efficient Edge Serving

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The growing gap between the increasing complexity of large language models (LLMs) and the limited computational budgets of edge devices poses a key challenge for efficient on-device inference, despite gradual improvements in hardware capabilities. Existing strategies, such as aggressive quantization, pruning, or remote inference, trade accuracy for efficiency or lead to substantial cost burdens. This position paper introduces a new framework that leverages speculative decoding, previously viewed primarily as a decoding acceleration technique for autoregressive generation of LLMs, as a promising approach specifically adapted for edge computing by orchestrating computation across heterogeneous devices. We propose \acronym, a framework that allows lightweight edge devices to draft multiple candidate tokens locally using diverse draft models, while a single, shared edge server verifies the tokens utilizing a more precise target model. To further increase the efficiency of verification, the edge server batch the diverse verification requests from devices. This approach supports device heterogeneity and reduces server-side memory footprint by sharing the same upstream target model across multiple devices. Our initial experiments with Jetson Orin Nano, Raspberry Pi 4B/5, and an edge server equipped with 4 Nvidia A100 GPUs indicate substantial benefits: 2.2 more system throughput, 2.8 more system capacity, and better cost efficiency, all without sacrificing model accuracy.


UniFault: A Fault Diagnosis Foundation Model from Bearing Data

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Machine fault diagnosis (FD) is a critical task for predictive maintenance, enabling early fault detection and preventing unexpected failures. Despite its importance, existing FD models are operation-specific with limited generalization across diverse datasets. Foundation models (FM) have demonstrated remarkable potential in both visual and language domains, achieving impressive generalization capabilities even with minimal data through few-shot or zero-shot learning. However, translating these advances to FD presents unique hurdles. Unlike the large-scale, cohesive datasets available for images and text, FD datasets are typically smaller and more heterogeneous, with significant variations in sampling frequencies and the number of channels across different systems and applications. This heterogeneity complicates the design of a universal architecture capable of effectively processing such diverse data while maintaining robust feature extraction and learning capabilities. In this paper, we introduce UniFault, a foundation model for fault diagnosis that systematically addresses these issues. Specifically, the model incorporates a comprehensive data harmonization pipeline featuring two key innovations. First, a unification scheme transforms multivariate inputs into standardized univariate sequences. Second, a novel cross-domain temporal fusion strategy mitigates distribution shifts and enriches sample diversity and count, improving the model generalization across varying conditions. UniFault is pretrained on over 6.9 million samples spanning diverse FD datasets, enabling superior few-shot performance. Extensive experiments on real-world FD datasets demonstrate that UniFault achieves state-of-the-art performance, setting a new benchmark for fault diagnosis models and paving the way for more scalable and robust predictive maintenance solutions.


Dissecting FLOPs along input dimensions for GreenAI cost estimations

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The term GreenAI refers to a novel approach to Deep Learning, that is more aware of the ecological impact and the computational efficiency of its methods. The promoters of GreenAI suggested the use of Floating Point Operations (FLOPs) as a measure of the computational cost of Neural Networks; however, that measure does not correlate well with the energy consumption of hardware equipped with massively parallel processing units like GPUs or TPUs. In this article, we propose a simple refinement of the formula used to compute floating point operations for convolutional layers, called α -FLOPs, explaining and correcting the traditional discrepancy with respect to different layers, and closer to reality. The notion of α -FLOPs relies on the crucial insight that, in case of inputs with multiple dimensions, there is no reason to believe that the speedup offered by parallelism will be uniform along all different axes.