Energy
Adaptive Online Learning with LSTM Networks for Energy Price Prediction
Salihoglu, Salih, Ahmed, Ibrahim, Asadi, Afshin
Accurate prediction of electricity prices is crucial for stakeholders in the energy market, particularly for grid operators, energy producers, and consumers. This study focuses on developing a predictive model leveraging Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks to forecast day-ahead electricity prices in the California energy market. The model incorporates a variety of features, including historical price data, weather conditions, and the energy generation mix. A novel custom loss function that integrates Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Jensen-Shannon Divergence (JSD), and a smoothness penalty is introduced to enhance the prediction accuracy and interpretability. Additionally, an online learning approach is implemented to allow the model to adapt to new data incrementally, ensuring continuous relevance and accuracy. The results demonstrate that the custom loss function can improve the model's performance, aligning predicted prices more closely with actual values, particularly during peak intervals. Also, the online learning model outperforms other models by effectively incorporating real-time data, resulting in lower prediction error and variability. The inclusion of the energy generation mix further enhances the model's predictive capabilities, highlighting the importance of comprehensive feature integration. This research provides a robust framework for electricity price forecasting, offering valuable insights and tools for better decision-making in dynamic electricity markets.
Needles in the Landscape: Semi-Supervised Pseudolabeling for Archaeological Site Discovery under Label Scarcity
Jaxy, Simon, Theys, Anton, Willett, Patrick, Carleton, W. Chris, Vandam, Ralf, Libin, Pieter
Archaeological predictive modelling estimates where undiscovered sites are likely to occur by combining known locations with environmental, cultural, and geospatial variables. We address this challenge using a deep learning approach but must contend with structural label scarcity inherent to archaeology: positives are rare, and most locations are unlabeled. To address this, we adopt a semi-supervised, positive-unlabeled (PU) learning strategy, implemented as a semantic segmentation model and evaluated on two datasets covering a representative range of archaeological periods. Our approach employs dynamic pseudolabeling, refined with a Conditional Random Field (CRF) implemented via an RNN, increasing label confidence under severe class imbalance. On a geospatial dataset derived from a digital elevation model (DEM), our model performs on par with the state-of-the-art, LAMAP, while achieving higher Dice scores. On raw satellite imagery, assessed end-to-end with stratified k-fold cross-validation, it maintains performance and yields predictive surfaces with improved interpretability. Overall, our results indicate that semi-supervised learning offers a promising approach to identifying undiscovered sites across large, sparsely annotated landscapes.
Mixed-Precision Quantization for Language Models: Techniques and Prospects
Rakka, Mariam, Fournarakis, Marios, Krestinskaya, Olga, Bazzi, Jinane, Salama, Khaled N., Kurdahi, Fadi, Eltawil, Ahmed M., Fouda, Mohammed E.
The rapid scaling of language models (LMs) has resulted in unprecedented computational, memory, and energy requirements, making their training and deployment increasingly unsustainable. Quantization has emerged as an essential compression technique to reduce model size, alleviate memory bottlenecks, and accelerate inference. However, while uniform low-bit quantization (e.g., INT8, INT4) provides significant efficiency gains, it can degrade accuracy in sensitive components of transformer-based LMs. Mixed-precision quantization offers a promising alternative by selectively allocating precision across layers or within tensors to balance efficiency and accuracy. This survey provides a comprehensive overview of Mixed-Precision quantization frameworks for LMs (MXPLMs). We first review quantization fundamentals, including uniform and non-uniform quantizers, quantization granularity, and methods widely used in post-training quantization. We then categorize and compare recent MXPLM frameworks according to their bit allocation strategies and precision configurations across weights, activations, and key-value caches. A comparative analysis highlights differences in perplexity, zero-shot task performance, and deployment trade-offs. Furthermore, we contrast MXPLMs with earlier mixed-precision quantization methods for deep neural networks, identifying strategies that transfer and those that face challenges in the LM setting. Finally, we summarize open issues and future directions, including hardware-aware design, activation quantization, and scalable optimization methods for billion-parameter models. By consolidating recent advances, this work serves as a reference for understanding the current landscape and research prospects of mixed-precision quantization for large-scale language models.
Towards Active Excitation-Based Dynamic Inertia Identification in Satellites
El-Hariry, Matteo, Franzese, Vittorio, Olivares-Mendez, Miguel
Abstract-- This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of how excitation design influences the identification of the inertia properties of rigid nano-and micro-satellites. We simulate nonlinear attitude dynamics with reaction-wheel coupling, actuator limits, and external disturbances, and excite the system using eight torque profiles of varying spectral richness. Two estimators are compared, a batch Least Squares method and an Extended Kalman Filter, across three satellite configurations and time-varying inertia scenarios. Results show that excitation frequency content and estimator assumptions jointly determine estimation accuracy and robustness, offering practical guidance for in-orbit adaptive inertia identification by outlining the conditions under which each method performs best. The ability to accurately characterize the inertia properties of a spacecraft while in mission flight is key for attitude and trajectory control.
Resolution-Aware Retrieval Augmented Zero-Shot Forecasting
Deznabi, Iman, Kumar, Peeyush, Fiterau, Madalina
Zero-shot forecasting aims to predict outcomes for previously unseen conditions without direct historical data, posing a significant challenge for traditional forecasting methods. We introduce a Resolution-Aware Retrieval-Augmented Forecasting model that enhances predictive accuracy by leveraging spatial correlations and temporal frequency characteristics. By decomposing signals into different frequency components, our model employs resolution-aware retrieval, where lower-frequency components rely on broader spatial context, while higher-frequency components focus on local influences. This allows the model to dynamically retrieve relevant data and adapt to new locations with minimal historical context. Applied to microclimate forecasting, our model significantly outperforms traditional forecasting methods, numerical weather prediction models, and modern foundation time series models, achieving 71% lower MSE than HRRR and 34% lower MSE than Chronos on the ERA5 dataset. Our results highlight the effectiveness of retrieval-augmented and resolution-aware strategies, offering a scalable and data-efficient solution for zero-shot forecasting in microclimate modeling and beyond.
Active Target Discovery under Uninformative Prior: The Power of Permanent and Transient Memory
Sarkar, Anindya, Ji, Binglin, Vorobeychik, Yevgeniy
In many scientific and engineering fields, where acquiring high-quality data is expensive--such as medical imaging, environmental monitoring, and remote sensing--strategic sampling of unobserved regions based on prior observations is crucial for maximizing discovery rates within a constrained budget. The rise of powerful generative models, such as diffusion models, has enabled active target discovery in partially observable environments by leveraging learned priors--probabilistic representations that capture underlying structure from data. With guidance from sequentially gathered task-specific observations, these models can progressively refine exploration and efficiently direct queries toward promising regions. However, in domains where learning a strong prior is infeasible due to extremely limited data or high sampling cost (such as rare species discovery, diagnostics for emerging diseases, etc.), these methods struggle to generalize. To overcome this limitation, we propose a novel approach that enables effective active target discovery even in settings with uninformative priors, ensuring robust exploration and adaptability in complex real-world scenarios. Our framework is theoretically principled and draws inspiration from neuroscience to guide its design. Unlike black-box policies, our approach is inherently interpretable, providing clear insights into decision-making. Furthermore, it guarantees a strong, monotonic improvement in prior estimates with each new observation, leading to increasingly accurate sampling and reinforcing both reliability and adaptability in dynamic settings. Through comprehensive experiments and ablation studies across various domains, including species distribution modeling and remote sensing, we demonstrate that our method substantially outperforms baseline approaches.
Urban-R1: Reinforced MLLMs Mitigate Geospatial Biases for Urban General Intelligence
Wang, Qiongyan, Zou, Xingchen, Jiang, Yutian, Wen, Haomin, Wei, Jiaheng, Wen, Qingsong, Liang, Yuxuan
Rapid urbanization intensifies the demand for Urban General Intelligence (UGI), referring to AI systems that can understand and reason about complex urban environments. Recent studies have built urban foundation models using supervised fine-tuning (SFT) of LLMs and MLLMs, yet these models exhibit persistent geospatial bias, producing regionally skewed predictions and limited generalization. To this end, we propose Urban-R1, a reinforcement learning-based post-training framework that aligns MLLMs with the objectives of UGI. Urban-R1 adopts Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) to optimize reasoning across geographic groups and employs urban region profiling as a proxy task to provide measurable rewards from multimodal urban data. Extensive experiments across diverse regions and tasks show that Urban-R1 effectively mitigates geo-bias and improves cross-region generalization, outperforming both SFT-trained and closed-source models. Our results highlight reinforcement learning alignment as a promising pathway toward equitable and trustworthy urban intelligence.
Conformal Prediction in The Loop: A Feedback-Based Uncertainty Model for Trajectory Optimization
Conformal Prediction (CP) is a powerful statistical machine learning tool to construct uncertainty sets with coverage guarantees, which has fueled its extensive adoption in generating prediction regions for decision-making tasks, e.g., Trajectory Optimization (TO) in uncertain environments. However, existing methods predominantly employ a sequential scheme, where decisions rely unidirectionally on the prediction regions, and consequently the information from decision-making fails to be fed back to instruct CP. In this paper, we propose a novel Feedback-Based CP (Fb-CP) framework for shrinking-horizon TO with a joint risk constraint over the entire mission time. Specifically, a CP-based posterior risk calculation method is developed by fully leveraging the realized trajectories to adjust the posterior allowable risk, which is then allocated to future times to update prediction regions. In this way, the information in the realized trajectories is continuously fed back to the CP, enabling attractive feedback-based adjustments of the prediction regions and a provable online improvement in trajectory performance. Furthermore, we theoretically prove that such adjustments consistently maintain the coverage guarantees of the prediction regions, thereby ensuring provable safety. Additionally, we develop a decision-focused iterative risk allocation algorithm with theoretical convergence analysis for allocating the posterior allowable risk which closely aligns with Fb-CP. Furthermore, we extend the proposed method to handle distribution shift. The effectiveness and superiority of the proposed method are demonstrated through benchmark experiments.
SPOT: Sensing-augmented Trajectory Planning via Obstacle Threat Modeling
Zhang, Chi, Huang, Xian, Dong, Wei
UAVs equipped with a single depth camera encounter significant challenges in dynamic obstacle avoidance due to limited field of view and inevitable blind spots. While active vision strategies that steer onboard cameras have been proposed to expand sensing coverage, most existing methods separate motion planning from sensing considerations, resulting in less effective and delayed obstacle response. To address this limitation, we introduce SPOT (Sensing-augmented Planning via Obstacle Threat modeling), a unified planning framework for observation-aware trajectory planning that explicitly incorporates sensing objectives into motion optimization. At the core of our method is a Gaussian Process-based obstacle belief map, which establishes a unified probabilistic representation of both recognized (previously observed) and potential obstacles. This belief is further processed through a collision-aware inference mechanism that transforms spatial uncertainty and trajectory proximity into a time-varying observation urgency map. By integrating urgency values within the current field of view, we define differentiable objectives that enable real-time, observation-aware trajectory planning with computation times under 10 ms. Simulation and real-world experiments in dynamic, cluttered, and occluded environments show that our method detects potential dynamic obstacles 2.8 seconds earlier than baseline approaches, increasing dynamic obstacle visibility by over 500\%, and enabling safe navigation through cluttered, occluded environments.
Machine Learning for Climate Policy: Understanding Policy Progression in the European Green Deal
West, Patricia, Wan, Michelle WL, Hepburn, Alexander, Simpson, Edwin, Santos-Rodriguez, Raul, Clark, Jeffrey N
Climate change demands effective legislative action to mitigate its impacts. This study explores the application of machine learning (ML) to understand the progression of climate policy from announcement to adoption, focusing on policies within the European Green Deal. We present a dataset of 165 policies, incorporating text and metadata. We aim to predict a policy's progression status, and compare text representation methods, including TF-IDF, BERT, and ClimateBERT. Metadata features are included to evaluate the impact on predictive performance. On text features alone, ClimateBERT outperforms other approaches (RMSE = 0.17, R^2 = 0.29), while BERT achieves superior performance with the addition of metadata features (RMSE = 0.16, R^2 = 0.38). Using methods from explainable AI highlights the influence of factors such as policy wording and metadata including political party and country representation. These findings underscore the potential of ML tools in supporting climate policy analysis and decision-making.