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A metrological framework for uncertainty evaluation in machine learning classification models

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Machine learning (ML) classification models are increasingly being used in a wide range of applications where it is important that predictions are accompanied by uncertainties, including in climate and earth observation, medical diagnosis and bioaerosol monitoring. The output of an ML classification model is a type of categorical variable known as a nominal property in the International Vocabulary of Metrology (VIM). However, concepts related to uncertainty evaluation for nominal properties are not defined in the VIM, nor is such evaluation addressed by the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM). In this paper we propose a metrological conceptual uncertainty evaluation framework for nominal properties. This framework is based on probability mass functions and summary statistics thereof, and it is applicable to ML classification. We also illustrate its use in the context of two applications that exemplify the issues and have significant societal impact, namely, climate and earth observation and medical diagnosis. Our framework would enable an extension of the GUM to uncertainty for nominal properties, which would make both applicable to ML classification models.


Emergent Cognitive Convergence via Implementation: A Structured Loop Reflecting Four Theories of Mind

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We report a structural convergence among four influential theories of mind: Kahneman's dual-system theory, Friston's predictive processing, Minsky's society of mind, and Clark's extended mind, emerging unintentionally within a practical AI architecture known as Agentic Flow. Designed to address the limitations of large language models (LLMs), Agentic Flow comprises five interlocking modules: Retrieval, Cognition, Control, Memory, and Action, organized into a repeatable cognitive loop. Although originally inspired only by Minsky and Clark, subsequent analysis revealed that its structure echoes computational motifs from all four theories, suggesting that theoretical convergence can emerge naturally from implementation demands rather than deliberate synthesis. Controlled evaluations confirmed this: the structured agent achieved 95.8% task success versus 62.3% for baseline LLMs, demonstrating robust constraint adherence and reproducible reasoning. We describe this convergence under a broader descriptive meta-architecture called PEACE, highlighting recurring design patterns such as predictive modeling, associative recall, and error-sensitive control. Later formalized as the Structured Cognitive Loop (SCL), this framework generalizes the same principles as a foundation for behavioral intelligence in LLM-based agents. Rather than claiming theoretical unification, this paper proposes that intelligent architectures may evolve toward shared structural patterns shaped by practical constraints. As a position paper, it aims to frame this convergence as an interpretive reflection rather than a finalized theory, inviting further theoretical and experimental dialogue. Agentic Flow, or equivalently the Structured Cognitive Loop, thus offers a glimpse of how a unified cognitive form can arise not from abstraction, but from the necessities of real-world reasoning.


Selective Sinkhorn Routing for Improved Sparse Mixture of Experts

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Sparse Mixture-of-Experts (SMoE) has gained prominence as a scalable and computationally efficient architecture, enabling significant growth in model capacity without incurring additional inference costs. However, existing SMoE models often rely on auxiliary losses (e.g., z-loss, load balancing) and additional trainable parameters (e.g., noisy gating) to encourage expert diversity, leading to objective misalignment and increased model complexity. Moreover, existing Sinkhorn-based methods suffer from significant training overhead due to their heavy reliance on the computationally expensive Sinkhorn algorithm. In this work, we formulate token-to-expert assignment as an optimal transport problem, incorporating constraints to ensure balanced expert utilization. We demonstrate that introducing a minimal degree of optimal transport-based routing enhances SMoE performance without requiring auxiliary balancing losses. Unlike previous methods, our approach derives gating scores directly from the transport map, enabling more effective token-to-expert balancing, supported by both theoretical analysis and empirical results. Building on these insights, we propose Selective Sinkhorn Routing (SSR), a routing mechanism that replaces auxiliary loss with lightweight Sinkhorn-based routing. SSR promotes balanced token assignments while preserving flexibility in expert selection. Across both language modeling and image classification tasks, SSR achieves faster training, higher accuracy, and greater robustness to input corruption.


Capturing Polysemanticity with PRISM: A Multi-Concept Feature Description Framework

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Automated interpretability research aims to identify concepts encoded in neural network features to enhance human understanding of model behavior. Within the context of large language models (LLMs) for natural language processing (NLP), current automated neuron-level feature description methods face two key challenges: limited robustness and the assumption that each neuron encodes a single concept (monosemanticity), despite increasing evidence of polysemanticity. This assumption restricts the expressiveness of feature descriptions and limits their ability to capture the full range of behaviors encoded in model internals. To address this, we introduce Polysemantic FeatuRe Identification and Scoring Method (PRISM), a novel framework specifically designed to capture the complexity of features in LLMs. Unlike approaches that assign a single description per neuron, common in many automated interpretability methods in NLP, PRISM produces more nuanced descriptions that account for both monosemantic and polysemantic behavior. We apply PRISM to LLMs and, through extensive benchmarking against existing methods, demonstrate that our approach produces more accurate and faithful feature descriptions, improving both overall description quality (via a description score) and the ability to capture distinct concepts when polysemanticity is present (via a polysemanticity score).


Trends in Motion Prediction Toward Deployable and Generalizable Autonomy: A Revisit and Perspectives

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Motion prediction, recently popularized under the term world models, refers to anticipating the future states of agents or the future evolution of a scene, which is rooted in human cognition to bridge perception and decision-making, enabling us to anticipate, adapt, and act within an ever-changing world. It lies at the core of intelligent autonomous systems, such as robotics and self-driving cars, to safely operate in dynamic and human-robot-mixed environments, and also informs broader time-series challenges. With advances in methods, representations, and datasets, the field has seen rapid progress, reflected in rapidly updated benchmark performance. However, when state-of-the-art methods are deployed in the real world, they are often found to struggle to generalize to open-world settings and fall short of deployment standards. This reveals a gap between reality and benchmarks, which are often idealized or ill-posed, and fail to capture real-world complexity. To address the pressing need for problem settings that better reflect real-world challenges and guide future research, this paper focuses on revisiting the generalization and applicability of motion prediction models, with an emphasis on robotics, autonomous driving, and human motion applications. We first provide a comprehensive taxonomy of motion prediction methods, covering representations, modelling methods, application domains, and evaluation protocols. We then revisit two fundamental problems: 1) how to push motion prediction models to be deployable to realistic deployment standards, where motion prediction does not act in a vacuum, but functions as one module of closed-loop autonomy stacks - it takes input from the localization and perception, and informs downstream planning and control.


Quasi-Newton Compatible Actor-Critic for Deterministic Policies

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this paper, we propose a second-order deterministic actor-critic framework in reinforcement learning that extends the classical deterministic policy gradient method to exploit curvature information of the performance function. Building on the concept of compatible function approximation for the critic, we introduce a quadratic critic that simultaneously preserves the true policy gradient and an approximation of the performance Hessian. A least-squares temporal difference learning scheme is then developed to estimate the quadratic critic parameters efficiently. This construction enables a quasi-Newton actor update using information learned by the critic, yielding faster convergence compared to first-order methods. The proposed approach is general and applicable to any differentiable policy class. Numerical examples demonstrate that the method achieves improved convergence and performance over standard deterministic actor-critic baselines.


Fundamentals of Physical AI

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This work will elaborate the fundamental principles of physical artificial intelligence (Physical AI) from a scientific and systemic perspective. The aim is to create a theoretical foundation that describes the physical embodiment, sensory perception, ability to act, learning processes, and context sensitivity of intelligent systems within a coherent framework. While classical AI approaches rely on symbolic processing and data driven models, Physical AI understands intelligence as an emergent phenomenon of real interaction between body, environment, and experience. The six fundamentals presented here are embodiment, sensory perception, motor action, learning, autonomy, and context sensitivity, and form the conceptual basis for designing and evaluating physically intelligent systems. Theoretically, it is shown that these six principles do not represent loose functional modules but rather act as a closed control loop in which energy, information, control, and context are in constant interaction. This circular interaction enables a system to generate meaning not from databases, but from physical experience, a paradigm shift that understands intelligence as an physical embodied process. Physical AI understands learning not as parameter adjustment, but as a change in the structural coupling between agents and the environment. To illustrate this, the theoretical model is explained using a practical scenario: An adaptive assistant robot supports patients in a rehabilitation clinic. This example illustrates that physical intelligence does not arise from abstract calculation, but from immediate, embodied experience. It shows how the six fundamentals interact in a real system: embodiment as a prerequisite, perception as input, movement as expression, learning as adaptation, autonomy as regulation, and context as orientation.


SPIDER: Scalable Physics-Informed Dexterous Retargeting

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Learning dexterous and agile policy for humanoid and dexterous hand control requires large-scale demonstrations, but collecting robot-specific data is prohibitively expensive. In contrast, abundant human motion data is readily available from motion capture, videos, and virtual reality, which could help address the data scarcity problem. However, due to the embodiment gap and missing dynamic information like force and torque, these demonstrations cannot be directly executed on robots. To bridge this gap, we propose Scalable Physics-Informed DExterous Retargeting (SPIDER), a physics-based retargeting framework to transform and augment kinematic-only human demonstrations to dynamically feasible robot trajectories at scale. Our key insight is that human demonstrations should provide global task structure and objective, while large-scale physics-based sampling with curriculum-style virtual contact guidance should refine trajectories to ensure dynamical feasibility and correct contact sequences. SPIDER scales across diverse 9 humanoid/dexterous hand embodiments and 6 datasets, improving success rates by 18% compared to standard sampling, while being 10X faster than reinforcement learning (RL) baselines, and enabling the generation of a 2.4M frames dynamic-feasible robot dataset for policy learning. As a universal physics-based retargeting method, SPIDER can work with diverse quality data and generate diverse and high-quality data to enable efficient policy learning with methods like RL.


Adversarially and Distributionally Robust Virtual Energy Storage Systems via the Scenario Approach

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We propose an optimization model where a parking lot manager (PLM) can aggregate parked EV batteries to provide virtual energy storage services that are provably robust under uncertain EV departures and state-of-charge caps. Our formulation yields a data-driven convex optimization problem where a prosumer community agrees on a contract with the PLM for the provision of storage services over a finite horizon. Leveraging recent results in the scenario approach, we certify out-of-sample constraint safety. Furthermore, we enable a tunable profit-risk trade-off through scenario relaxation and extend our model to account for robustness to adversarial perturbations and distributional shifts over Wasserstein-based ambiguity sets. All the approaches are accompanied by tight finite-sample certificates. Numerical studies demonstrate the out-of-sample and out-of-distribution constraint satisfaction of our proposed model compared to the developed theoretical guarantees, showing their effectiveness and potential in robust and efficient virtual energy services.


The 2025 Planning Performance of Frontier Large Language Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The capacity of Large Language Models (LLMs) for reasoning remains an active area of research, with the capabilities of frontier models continually advancing. We provide an updated evaluation of the end-to-end planning performance of three frontier LLMs as of 2025, where models are prompted to generate a plan from PDDL domain and task descriptions. We evaluate DeepSeek R1, Gemini 2.5 Pro, GPT-5 and as reference the planner LAMA on a subset of domains from the most recent Learning Track of the International Planning Competition. Our results show that on standard PDDL domains, the performance of GPT-5 in terms of solved tasks is competitive with LAMA. When the PDDL domains and tasks are obfuscated to test for pure reasoning, the performance of all LLMs degrades, though less severely than previously reported for other models. These results show substantial improvements over prior generations of LLMs, reducing the performance gap to planners on a challenging benchmark.