Energy
Conceptual Evaluation of Deep Visual Stereo Odometry for the MARWIN Radiation Monitoring Robot in Accelerator Tunnels
Dehne, André, Zach, Juri, Stelldinger, Peer
The MARWIN robot operates at the European XFEL to perform autonomous radiation monitoring in long, monotonous accelerator tunnels where conventional localization approaches struggle. Its current navigation concept combines lidar-based edge detection, wheel/lidar odometry with periodic QR-code referencing, and fuzzy control of wall distance, rotation, and longitudinal position. While robust in predefined sections, this design lacks flexibility for unknown geometries and obstacles. This paper explores deep visual stereo odometry (DVSO) with 3D-geometric constraints as a focused alternative. DVSO is purely vision-based, leveraging stereo disparity, optical flow, and self-supervised learning to jointly estimate depth and ego-motion without labeled data. For global consistency, DVSO can subsequently be fused with absolute references (e.g., landmarks) or other sensors. We provide a conceptual evaluation for accelerator tunnel environments, using the European XFEL as a case study. Expected benefits include reduced scale drift via stereo, low-cost sensing, and scalable data collection, while challenges remain in low-texture surfaces, lighting variability, computational load, and robustness under radiation. The paper defines a research agenda toward enabling MARWIN to navigate more autonomously in constrained, safety-critical infrastructures.
Towards a future space-based, highly scalable AI infrastructure system design
Arcas, Blaise Agüera y, Beals, Travis, Biggs, Maria, Bloom, Jessica V., Fischbacher, Thomas, Gromov, Konstantin, Köster, Urs, Pravahan, Rishiraj, Manyika, James
If AI is a foundational general-purpose technology, we should anticipate that demand for AI compute -- and energy -- will continue to grow. The Sun is by far the largest energy source in our solar system, and thus it warrants consideration how future AI infrastructure could most efficiently tap into that power. This work explores a scalable compute system for machine learning in space, using fleets of satellites equipped with solar arrays, inter-satellite links using free-space optics, and Google tensor processing unit (TPU) accelerator chips. To facilitate high-bandwidth, low-latency inter-satellite communication, the satellites would be flown in close proximity. We illustrate the basic approach to formation flight via a 81-satellite cluster of 1 km radius, and describe an approach for using high-precision ML-based models to control large-scale constellations. Trillium TPUs are radiation tested. They survive a total ionizing dose equivalent to a 5 year mission life without permanent failures, and are characterized for bit-flip errors. Launch costs are a critical part of overall system cost; a learning curve analysis suggests launch to low-Earth orbit (LEO) may reach $\lesssim$\$200/kg by the mid-2030s.
Improving Region Representation Learning from Urban Imagery with Noisy Long-Caption Supervision
Zhang, Yimei, Shen, Guojiang, Ning, Kaili, Ren, Tongwei, Qiu, Xuebo, Wang, Mengmeng, Kong, Xiangjie
Region representation learning plays a pivotal role in urban computing by extracting meaningful features from unlabeled urban data. Analogous to how perceived facial age reflects an individual's health, the visual appearance of a city serves as its "portrait", encapsulating latent socio-economic and environmental characteristics. Recent studies have explored leveraging Large Language Models (LLMs) to incorporate textual knowledge into imagery-based urban region representation learning. However, two major challenges remain: i) difficulty in aligning fine-grained visual features with long captions, and ii) suboptimal knowledge incorporation due to noise in LLM-generated captions. To address these issues, we propose a novel pre-training framework called UrbanLN that improves Urban region representation learning through Long-text awareness and Noise suppression. Specifically, we introduce an information-preserved stretching interpolation strategy that aligns long captions with fine-grained visual semantics in complex urban scenes. To effectively mine knowledge from LLM-generated captions and filter out noise, we propose a dual-level optimization strategy. At the data level, a multi-model collaboration pipeline automatically generates diverse and reliable captions without human intervention. At the model level, we employ a momentum-based self-distillation mechanism to generate stable pseudo-targets, facilitating robust cross-modal learning under noisy conditions. Extensive experiments across four real-world cities and various downstream tasks demonstrate the superior performance of our UrbanLN.
Evaluating Spatio-Temporal Forecasting Trade-offs Between Graph Neural Networks and Foundation Models
Gupta, Ragini, Raina, Naman, Chen, Bo, Chen, Li, Danilov, Claudiu, Eckhardt, Josh, Bernard, Keyshla, Nahrstedt, Klara
Modern IoT deployments for environmental sensing produce high volume spatiotemporal data to support downstream tasks such as forecasting, typically powered by machine learning models. While existing filtering and strategic deployment techniques optimize collected data volume at the edge, they overlook how variations in sampling frequencies and spatial coverage affect downstream model performance. In many forecasting models, incorporating data from additional sensors denoise predictions by providing broader spatial contexts. This interplay between sampling frequency, spatial coverage and different forecasting model architectures remain underexplored. This work presents a systematic study of forecasting models - classical models (VAR), neural networks (GRU, Transformer), spatio-temporal graph neural networks (STGNNs), and time series foundation models (TSFMs: Chronos Moirai, TimesFM) under varying spatial sensor nodes density and sampling intervals using real-world temperature data in a wireless sensor network. Our results show that STGNNs are effective when sensor deployments are sparse and sampling rate is moderate, leveraging spatial correlations via encoded graph structure to compensate for limited coverage. In contrast, TSFMs perform competitively at high frequencies but degrade when spatial coverage from neighboring sensors is reduced. Crucially, the multivariate TSFM Moirai outperforms all models by natively learning cross-sensor dependencies. These findings offer actionable insights for building efficient forecasting pipelines in spatio-temporal systems. All code for model configurations, training, dataset, and logs are open-sourced for reproducibility: https://github.com/UIUC-MONET-Projects/Benchmarking-Spatiotemporal-Forecast-Models
Exploring System 1 and 2 communication for latent reasoning in LLMs
Coda-Forno, Julian, Zhao, Zhuokai, Zhang, Qiang, Tamboli, Dipesh, Li, Weiwei, Fan, Xiangjun, Zhang, Lizhu, Schulz, Eric, Tseng, Hsiao-Ping
Should LLM reasoning live in a separate module, or within a single model's forward pass and representational space? We study dual-architecture latent reasoning, where a fluent Base exchanges latent messages with a Coprocessor, and test two hypotheses aimed at improving latent communication over Liu et al. (2024): (H1) increase channel capacity; (H2) learn communication via joint finetuning. Under matched latent-token budgets on GPT-2 and Qwen-3, H2 is consistently strongest while H1 yields modest gains. A unified soft-embedding baseline, a single model with the same forward pass and shared representations, using the same latent-token budget, nearly matches H2 and surpasses H1, suggesting current dual designs mostly add compute rather than qualitatively improving reasoning. Across GSM8K, ProsQA, and a Countdown stress test with increasing branching factor, scaling the latent-token budget beyond small values fails to improve robustness. Latent analyses show overlapping subspaces with limited specialization, consistent with weak reasoning gains. We conclude dual-model latent reasoning remains promising in principle, but likely requires objectives and training schedules that explicitly shape latent spaces for algorithmic planning.
ProtoTS: Learning Hierarchical Prototypes for Explainable Time Series Forecasting
Peng, Ziheng, Ren, Shijie, Gu, Xinyue, Yang, Linxiao, Wang, Xiting, Sun, Liang
While deep learning has achieved impressive performance in time series forecasting, it becomes increasingly crucial to understand its decision-making process for building trust in high-stakes scenarios. Existing interpretable models often provide only local and partial explanations, lacking the capability to reveal how heterogeneous and interacting input variables jointly shape the overall temporal patterns in the forecast curve. We propose ProtoTS, a novel interpretable forecasting framework that achieves both high accuracy and transparent decision-making through modeling prototypical temporal patterns. ProtoTS computes instance-prototype similarity based on a denoised representation that preserves abundant heterogeneous information. The prototypes are organized hierarchically to capture global temporal patterns with coarse prototypes while capturing finer-grained local variations with detailed prototypes, enabling expert steering and multi-level interpretability. Experiments on multiple realistic benchmarks, including a newly released LOF dataset, show that ProtoTS not only exceeds existing methods in forecast accuracy but also delivers expert-steerable interpretations for better model understanding and decision support. Time series forecasting has been widely applied in high-stakes scenarios such as load forecasting (Jiang et al., 2024; Y ang et al., 2023), energy management (Deb et al., 2017; Weron, 2014), weather prediction (Angryk et al., 2020; Karevan & Suykens, 2020), all of which involve considerable financial impacts. In these applications, while achieving high forecast accuracy is crucial, understanding why and how the model makes specific predictions is equally important. It aids in preventing substantial financial losses and building the trust necessary (Rojat et al., 2021). A range of explainable time series forecasting methods have been developed to simultaneously ensure interpretability and good predictive performance (Oreshkin et al., 2019; Lim et al., 2021; Zhao et al., 2024; Lin et al., 2024). However, their overall interpretability and potential for further performance improvement are limited, since they mainly provide local, partial explanations for both the output and input sides: C1: For the output side, existing methods (Lim et al., 2021; Zhao et al., 2024) mainly explain the prediction at individual time steps, lacking the ability to help users quickly interpret the reasons behind the overall trend in the forecast curve. For each instance, model computes its similarity to all prototypes to form a prediction, enabling detailed local interpretation.
Decoupled-Value Attention for Prior-Data Fitted Networks: GP Inference for Physical Equations
Sharma, Kaustubh, Singh, Simardeep, Pareek, Parikshit
Prior-data fitted networks (PFNs) are a promising alternative to time-consuming Gaussian process (GP) inference for creating fast surrogates of physical systems. PFN reduces the computational burden of GP-training by replacing Bayesian inference in GP with a single forward pass of a learned prediction model. We introduce Decoupled-V alue Attention (DV A)- motivated by the GP property that the function space is fully characterized by the kernel over inputs and the predictive mean is a weighted sum of training targets. DV A computes similarities from inputs only and propagates labels solely through values. Thus, the proposed DV A mirrors the GP update while remaining kernel-free. We demonstrate that PFNs are backbone architecture invariant and the crucial factor for scaling PFNs is the attention rule rather than the architecture itself. Specifically, our results demonstrate that (a) localized attention consistently reduces out-of-sample validation loss in PFNs across different dimensional settings, with validation loss reduced by more than 50% in five-and ten-dimensional cases, and (b) the role of attention is more decisive than the choice of backbone architecture, showing that CNN, RNN and LSTM-based PFNs can perform at par with their Transformer-based counterparts. Bayesian inference provides a powerful framework for reasoning under uncertainty, with methods like Gaussian processes (GPs) offering well-calibrated predictions and principled uncertainty estimates (Williams & Rasmussen, 2006). However, the practical application of these methods is often hindered by the heavy computational burden of learning kernel hyperparameters. For example, exact GP inference scales cubically with the number of data points, making its deployment infeasible for large datasets or problems requiring repeated training. Consider a physical system where a surrogate GP is chosen due to its uncertainty estimates and differentiable closed-form expressions. However, the underlying input dataset and configuration changes frequently, and the surrogate is supposed to work for these new, previously unseen variations. In such conditions, GP needs to be trained repeatedly, incurring significant computing cost, each time the dataset changes.
Robust, Observable, and Evolvable Agentic Systems Engineering: A Principled Framework Validated via the Fairy GUI Agent
Sun, Jiazheng, Yang, Ruimeng, Han, Xu, Niu, Jiayang, Li, Mingxuan, Yang, Te, Lu, Yongyong, Peng, Xin
The Agentic Paradigm faces a significant Software Engineering Absence, yielding Agentic systems commonly lacking robustness, observability, and evolvability. To address these deficiencies, we propose a principled engineering framework comprising Runtime Goal Refinement (RGR), Observable Cognitive Architecture (OCA), and Evolutionary Memory Architecture (EMA). In this framework, RGR ensures robustness and intent alignment via knowledge-constrained refinement and human-in-the-loop clarification; OCA builds an observable and maintainable white-box architecture using component decoupling, logic layering, and state-control separation; and EMA employs an execution-evolution dual-loop for evolvability. We implemented and empirically validated Fairy, a mobile GUI agent based on this framework. On RealMobile-Eval, our novel benchmark for ambiguous and complex tasks, Fairy outperformed the best SoTA baseline in user requirement completion by 33.7%. Subsequent controlled experiments, human-subject studies, and ablation studies further confirmed that the RGR enhances refinement accuracy and prevents intent deviation; the OCA improves maintainability; and the EMA is crucial for long-term performance. This research provides empirically validated specifications and a practical blueprint for building reliable, observable, and evolvable Agentic AI systems.
Remote Sensing-Oriented World Model
Lu, Yuxi, Wu, Biao, Li, Zhidong, Li, Kunqi, Huang, Chenya, Wang, Huacan, Lan, Qizhen, Chen, Ronghao, Chen, Ling, Liang, Bin
World models have shown potential in artificial intelligence by predicting and reasoning about world states beyond direct observations. However, existing approaches are predominantly evaluated in synthetic environments or constrained scene settings, limiting their validation in real-world contexts with broad spatial coverage and complex semantics. Meanwhile, remote sensing applications urgently require spatial reasoning capabilities for disaster response and urban planning. This paper bridges these gaps by introducing the first framework for world modeling in remote sensing. We formulate remote sensing world modeling as direction-conditioned spatial extrapolation, where models generate semantically consistent adjacent image tiles given a central observation and directional instruction. To enable rigorous evaluation, we develop RSWISE (Remote Sensing World-Image Spatial Evaluation), a benchmark containing 1,600 evaluation tasks across four scenarios: general, flood, urban, and rural. RSWISE combines visual fidelity assessment with instruction compliance evaluation using GPT-4o as a semantic judge, ensuring models genuinely perform spatial reasoning rather than simple replication. Afterwards, we present RemoteBAGEL, a unified multimodal model fine-tuned on remote sensing data for spatial extrapolation tasks. Extensive experiments demonstrate that RemoteBAGEL consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines on RSWISE.
Conformal Prediction for Time-series Forecasting with Change Points
Conformal prediction has been explored as a general and efficient way to provide uncertainty quantification for time series. However, current methods struggle to handle time series data with change points - sudden shifts in the underlying data-generating process. In this paper, we propose a novel Conformal Prediction for Time-series with Change points (CPTC) algorithm, addressing this gap by integrating a model to predict the underlying state with online conformal prediction to model uncertainties in non-stationary time series. We prove CPTC's validity and improved adaptivity in the time series setting under minimum assumptions, and demonstrate CPTC's practical effectiveness on 6 synthetic and real-world datasets, showing improved validity and adaptivity compared to state-of-the-art baselines.