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Augur: Modeling Covariate Causal Associations in Time Series via Large Language Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Large language models (LLM) have emerged as a promising avenue for time series forecasting, offering the potential to integrate multimodal data. However, existing LLM-based approaches face notable limitations-such as marginalized role in model architectures, reliance on coarse statistical text prompts, and lack of interpretability. In this work, we introduce Augur, a fully LLM driven time series forecasting framework that exploits LLM causal reasoning to discover and use directed causal associations among covariates. Augur uses a two stage teacher student architecture where a powerful teacher LLM infers a directed causal graph from time series using heuristic search together with pairwise causality testing. A lightweight student agent then refines the graph and fine tune on high confidence causal associations that are encoded as rich textual prompts to perform forecasting. This design improves predictive accuracy while yielding transparent, traceable reasoning about variable interactions. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets with 26 baselines demonstrate that Augur achieves competitive performance and robust zero-shot generalization.


ConStellaration: A dataset of QI-like stellarator plasma boundaries and optimization benchmarks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Stellarators are magnetic confinement devices under active development to deliver steady-state carbon-free fusion energy. Their design involves a high-dimensional, constrained optimization problem that requires expensive physics simulations and significant domain expertise. Recent advances in plasma physics and open-source tools have made stellarator optimization more accessible. However, broader community progress is currently bottlenecked by the lack of standardized optimization problems with strong baselines and datasets that enable data-driven approaches, particularly for quasi-isodynamic (QI) stellarator configurations, considered as a promising path to commercial fusion due to their inherent resilience to current driven disruptions. Here, we release an open dataset of diverse QI-like stellarator plasma boundary shapes, paired with their ideal magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) equilibria and performance metrics. We generated this dataset by sampling a variety of QI fields and optimizing corresponding stellarator plasma boundaries. We introduce three optimization benchmarks of increasing complexity: (1) a single objective geometric optimization problem, (2) a "simple-to-build" QI stellarator, and (3) a multi-objective ideal-MHD stable QI stellarator that investigates trade-offs between compactness and coil simplicity. For every benchmark, we provide reference code, evaluation scripts, and strong baselines based on classical optimization techniques. Finally, we show how learned models trained on our dataset can efficiently generate novel, feasible configurations without querying expensive physics oracles. By openly releasing the dataset along with benchmark problems and baselines, we aim to lower the entry barrier for optimization and machine learning researchers to engage in stellarator design and to accelerate cross-disciplinary progress toward bringing fusion energy to the grid.


Safe and Economical UAV Trajectory Planning in Low-Altitude Airspace: A Hybrid DRL-LLM Approach with Compliance Awareness

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The rapid growth of the low-altitude economy has driven the widespread adoption of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). This growing deployment presents new challenges for UAV trajectory planning in complex urban environments. However, existing studies often overlook key factors, such as urban airspace constraints and economic efficiency, which are essential in low-altitude economy contexts. Deep reinforcement learning (DRL) is regarded as a promising solution to these issues, while its practical adoption remains limited by low learning efficiency. To overcome this limitation, we propose a novel UAV trajectory planning framework that combines DRL with large language model (LLM) reasoning to enable safe, compliant, and economically viable path planning. Experimental results demonstrate that our method significantly outperforms existing baselines across multiple metrics, including data collection rate, collision avoidance, successful landing, regulatory compliance, and energy efficiency. These results validate the effectiveness of our approach in addressing UAV trajectory planning key challenges under constraints of the low-altitude economy networking.


GiBy: A Giant-Step Baby-Step Classifier For Anomaly Detection In Industrial Control Systems

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The continuous monitoring of the interactions between cyber-physical components of any industrial control system (ICS) is required to secure automation of the system controls, and to guarantee plant processes are fail-safe and remain in an acceptably safe state. Safety is achieved by managing actuation (where electric signals are used to trigger physical movement), dependent on corresponding sensor readings; used as ground truth in decision making. Timely detection of anomalies (attacks, faults and unascertained states) in ICSs is crucial for the safe running of a plant, the safety of its personnel, and for the safe provision of any services provided. We propose an anomaly detection method that involves accurate linearization of the non-linear forms arising from sensor-actuator(s) relationships, primarily because solving linear models is easier and well understood. We accomplish this by using a well-known water treatment testbed as a use case. Our experiments show millisecond time response to detect anomalies, all of which are explainable and traceable; this simultaneous coupling of detection speed and explainability has not been achieved by other state of the art Artificial Intelligence (AI)/ Machine Learning (ML) models with eXplainable AI (XAI) used for the same purpose. Our methods explainability enables us to pin-point the sensor(s) and the actuation state(s) for which the anomaly was detected. The proposed algorithm showed an accuracy of 97.72% by flagging deviations within safe operation limits as non-anomalous; indicative that slower detectors with highest detection resolution is unnecessary, for systems whose safety boundaries provide leeway within safety limits.


How to Purchase Labels? A Cost-Effective Approach Using Active Learning Markets

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We introduce and analyse active learning markets as a way to purchase labels, in situations where analysts aim to acquire additional data to improve model fitting, or to better train models for predictive analytics applications. This comes in contrast to the many proposals that already exist to purchase features and examples. By originally formalising the market clearing as an optimisation problem, we integrate budget constraints and improvement thresholds into the label acquisition process. We focus on a single-buyer-multiple-seller setup and propose the use of two active learning strategies (variance based and query-by-committee based), paired with distinct pricing mechanisms. They are compared to a benchmark random sampling approach. The proposed strategies are validated on real-world datasets from two critical application domains: real estate pricing and energy forecasting. Results demonstrate the robustness of our approach, consistently achieving superior performance with fewer labels acquired compared to conventional methods. Our proposal comprises an easy-to-implement practical solution for optimising data acquisition in resource-constrained environments.


Wanderland: Geometrically Grounded Simulation for Open-World Embodied AI

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Reproducible closed-loop evaluation remains a major bottleneck in Embodied AI such as visual navigation. A promising path forward is high-fidelity simulation that combines photorealistic sensor rendering with geometrically grounded interaction in complex, open-world urban environments. Although recent video-3DGS methods ease open-world scene capturing, they are still unsuitable for benchmarking due to large visual and geometric sim-to-real gaps. To address these challenges, we introduce Wanderland, a real-to-sim framework that features multi-sensor capture, reliable reconstruction, accurate geometry, and robust view synthesis. Using this pipeline, we curate a diverse dataset of indoor-outdoor urban scenes and systematically demonstrate how image-only pipelines scale poorly, how geometry quality impacts novel view synthesis, and how all of these adversely affect navigation policy learning and evaluation reliability. Beyond serving as a trusted testbed for embodied navigation, Wanderland's rich raw sensor data further allows benchmarking of 3D reconstruction and novel view synthesis models. Our work establishes a new foundation for reproducible research in open-world embodied AI. Project website is at https://ai4ce.github.io/wanderland/.


EnergyTwin: A Multi-Agent System for Simulating and Coordinating Energy Microgrids

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Microgrids are deployed to reduce purchased grid energy, limit exposure to volatile tariffs, and ensure service continuity during disturbances. This requires coordinating heterogeneous distributed energy resources across multiple time scales and under variable conditions. Among existing tools, typically, power-system simulators capture physical behaviour but assume centralized control, while multi-agent frameworks model decentralized decision-making but represent energy with no physical grounding. In this context, the EnergyTwin is introduced, an agent-based microgrid simulation environment that couples physically grounded models with forecast-informed, rolling-horizon planning, and negotiations. Each asset is modeled as an agent, interacting with a central agent that obtains forecasts, formulates predictions, and allocates energy through contract-based interactions. EnergyTwin targets tertiary-layer decision making and is extensible for digital-twin use. Its feasibility was evaluated in a university campus microgrid scenario where multiple planning strategies were compared. Achieved results show that forecast-driven rolling-horizon planning increases local energy self-sufficiency, maintains higher battery reserves, and reduces exposure to low-resilience operating states. They demonstrate also potential of EnergyTwin as platform supporting research on resilient, negotiation-driven microgrids.


Power-Efficient Autonomous Mobile Robots

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper presents pNav, a novel power-management system that significantly enhances the power/energy-efficiency of Autonomous Mobile Robots (AMRs) by jointly optimizing their physical/mechanical and cyber subsystems. By profiling AMRs' power consumption, we identify three challenges in achieving CPS (cyber-physical system) power-efficiency that involve both cyber (C) and physical (P) subsystems: (1) variabilities of system power consumption breakdown, (2) environment-aware navigation locality, and (3) coordination of C and P subsystems. pNav takes a multi-faceted approach to achieve power-efficiency of AMRs. First, it integrates millisecond-level power consumption prediction for both C and P subsystems. Second, it includes novel real-time modeling and monitoring of spatial and temporal navigation localities for AMRs. Third, it supports dynamic coordination of AMR software (navigation, detection) and hardware (motors, DVFS driver) configurations. pNav is prototyped using the Robot Operating System (ROS) Navigation Stack, 2D LiDAR, and camera. Our in-depth evaluation with a real robot and Gazebo environments demonstrates a >96% accuracy in predicting power consumption and a 38.1% reduction in power consumption without compromising navigation accuracy and safety.


PRISM: Periodic Representation with multIscale and Similarity graph Modelling for enhanced crystal structure property prediction

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Crystal structures are characterised by repeating atomic patterns within unit cells across three-dimensional space, posing unique challenges for graph-based representation learning. Current methods often overlook essential periodic boundary conditions and multiscale interactions inherent to crystalline structures. In this paper, we introduce PRISM, a graph neural network framework that explicitly integrates multiscale representations and periodic feature encoding by employing a set of expert modules, each specialised in encoding distinct structural and chemical aspects of periodic systems. Extensive experiments across crystal structure-based benchmarks demonstrate that PRISM improves state-of-the-art predictive accuracy, significantly enhancing crystal property prediction.


NNGPT: Rethinking AutoML with Large Language Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Building self-improving AI systems remains a fundamental challenge in the AI domain. We present NNGPT, an open-source framework that turns a large language model (LLM) into a self-improving AutoML engine for neural network development, primarily for computer vision. Unlike previous frameworks, NNGPT extends the dataset of neural networks by generating new models, enabling continuous fine-tuning of LLMs based on closed-loop system of generation, assessment, and self-improvement. It integrates within one unified workflow five synergistic LLM-based pipelines: zero-shot architecture synthesis, hyperparameter optimization (HPO), code-aware accuracy/early-stop prediction, retrieval-augmented synthesis of scope-closed PyTorch blocks (NN-RAG), and reinforcement learning. Built on the LEMUR dataset as an audited corpus with reproducible metrics, NNGPT emits from a single prompt and validates network architecture, preprocessing code, and hyperparameters, executes them end-to-end, and learns from result. The PyTorch adapter makes NNGPT framework-agnostic, enabling strong performance: NN-RAG achieves 73% executability on 1,289 targets, 3-shot prompting boosts accuracy on common datasets, and hash-based deduplication saves hundreds of runs. One-shot prediction matches search-based AutoML, reducing the need for numerous trials. HPO on LEMUR achieves RMSE 0.60, outperforming Optuna (0.64), while the code-aware predictor reaches RMSE 0.14 with Pearson r=0.78. The system has already generated over 5K validated models, proving NNGPT as an autonomous AutoML engine. Upon acceptance, the code, prompts, and checkpoints will be released for public access to enable reproducibility and facilitate community usage.