Addressing the so-called ``Red-AI'' trend of rising energy consumption by large-scale neural networks, this study investigates the actual energy consumption, as measured by node-level watt-meters, of training various fully connected neural network architectures. We introduce the BUTTER-E dataset, an augmentation to the BUTTER Empirical Deep Learning dataset, containing energy consumption and performance data from 63,527 individual experimental runs spanning 30,582 distinct configurations: 13 datasets, 20 sizes (number of trainable parameters), 8 network ``shapes'', and 14 depths on both CPU and GPU hardware collected using node-level watt-meters. This dataset reveals the complex relationship between dataset size, network structure, and energy use, and highlights the impact of cache effects. We propose a straightforward and effective energy model that accounts for network size, computing, and memory hierarchy. Our analysis also uncovers a surprising, hardware-mediated non-linear relationship between energy efficiency and network design, challenging the assumption that reducing the number of parameters or FLOPs is the best way to achieve greater energy efficiency. Highlighting the need for cache-considerate algorithm development, we suggest a combined approach to energy efficient network, algorithm, and hardware design. This work contributes to the fields of sustainable computing and Green AI, offering practical guidance for creating more energy-efficient neural networks and promoting sustainable AI.

Spatiotemporal datasets, which consist of spatially-referenced time series, are ubiquitous in many scientific and business-intelligence applications, such as air pollution monitoring, disease tracking, and cloud-demand forecasting. As modern datasets continue to increase in size and complexity, there is a growing need for new statistical methods that are flexible enough to capture complex spatiotemporal dynamics and scalable enough to handle large prediction problems. This work presents the Bayesian Neural Field (BayesNF), a domain-general statistical model for inferring rich probability distributions over a spatiotemporal domain, which can be used for data-analysis tasks including forecasting, interpolation, and variography. BayesNF integrates a novel deep neural network architecture for high-capacity function estimation with hierarchical Bayesian inference for robust uncertainty quantification. By defining the prior through a sequence of smooth differentiable transforms, posterior inference is conducted on large-scale data using variationally learned surrogates trained via stochastic gradient descent. We evaluate BayesNF against prominent statistical and machine-learning baselines, showing considerable improvements on diverse prediction problems from climate and public health datasets that contain tens to hundreds of thousands of measurements. The paper is accompanied with an open-source software package (https://github.com/google/bayesnf) that is easy-to-use and compatible with modern GPU and TPU accelerators on the JAX machine learning platform.

In the era of Internet of Things, how to develop a smart sensor system with sustainable power supply, easy deployment and flexible use has become a difficult problem to be solved. The traditional power supply has problems such as frequent replacement or charging when in use, which limits the development of wearable devices. The contact-to-separate friction nanogenerator (TENG) was prepared by using polychotomy thy lene (PTFE) and aluminum (AI) foils. Human motion energy was collected by human body arrangement, and human motion posture was monitored according to the changes of output electrical signals. In 2012, Academician Wang Zhong lin and his team invented the triboelectric nanogenerator (TENG), which uses Maxwell displacement current as a driving force to directly convert mechanical stimuli into electrical signals, so it can be used as a self-driven sensor. Teng-based sensors have the advantages of simple structure and high instantaneous power density, which provides an important means for building intelligent sensor systems. At the same time, machine learning, as a technology with low cost, short development cycle, strong data processing ability and prediction ability, has a significant effect on the processing of a large number of electrical signals generated by TENG, and the combination with TENG sensors will promote the rapid development of intelligent sensor networks in the future. Therefore, this paper is based on the intelligent sound monitoring and recognition system of TENG, which has good sound recognition capability, and aims to evaluate the feasibility of the sound perception module architecture in ubiquitous sensor networks.

Accurate load forecasting is crucial for energy management, infrastructure planning, and demand-supply balancing. Smart meter data availability has led to the demand for sensor-based load forecasting. Conventional ML allows training a single global model using data from multiple smart meters requiring data transfer to a central server, raising concerns for network requirements, privacy, and security. We propose a split learning-based framework for load forecasting to alleviate this issue. We split a deep neural network model into two parts, one for each Grid Station (GS) responsible for an entire neighbourhood's smart meters and the other for the Service Provider (SP). Instead of sharing their data, client smart meters use their respective GSs' model split for forward pass and only share their activations with the GS. Under this framework, each GS is responsible for training a personalized model split for their respective neighbourhoods, whereas the SP can train a single global or personalized model for each GS. Experiments show that the proposed models match or exceed a centrally trained model's performance and generalize well. Privacy is analyzed by assessing information leakage between data and shared activations of the GS model split. Additionally, differential privacy enhances local data privacy while examining its impact on performance. A transformer model is used as our base learner.

In recent years, Explainable AI (XAI) methods have facilitated profound validation and knowledge extraction from ML models. While extensively studied for classification, few XAI solutions have addressed the challenges specific to regression models. In regression, explanations need to be precisely formulated to address specific user queries (e.g.\ distinguishing between `Why is the output above 0?' and `Why is the output above 50?'). They should furthermore reflect the model's behavior on the relevant data sub-manifold. In this paper, we introduce XpertAI, a framework that disentangles the prediction strategy into multiple range-specific sub-strategies and allows the formulation of precise queries about the model (the `explanandum') as a linear combination of those sub-strategies. XpertAI is formulated generally to work alongside popular XAI attribution techniques, based on occlusion, gradient integration, or reverse propagation. Qualitative and quantitative results, demonstrate the benefits of our approach.

Yield forecasting, the science of predicting agricultural productivity before the crop harvest occurs, helps a wide range of stakeholders make better decisions around agricultural planning. This study aims to investigate whether machine learning-based yield prediction models can capably predict Kharif season rice yields at the district level in India several months before the rice harvest takes place. The methodology involved training 19 machine learning models such as CatBoost, LightGBM, Orthogonal Matching Pursuit, and Extremely Randomized Trees on 20 years of climate, satellite, and rice yield data across 247 of Indian rice-producing districts. In addition to model-building, a dynamic dashboard was built understand how the reliability of rice yield predictions varies across districts. The results of the proof-of-concept machine learning pipeline demonstrated that rice yields can be predicted with a reasonable degree of accuracy, with out-of-sample R2, MAE, and MAPE performance of up to 0.82, 0.29, and 0.16 respectively. These results outperformed test set performance reported in related literature on rice yield modeling in other contexts and countries. In addition, SHAP value analysis was conducted to infer both the importance and directional impact of the climate and remote sensing variables included in the model. Important features driving rice yields included temperature, soil water volume, and leaf area index. In particular, higher temperatures in August correlate with increased rice yields, particularly when the leaf area index in August is also high. Building on the results, a proof-of-concept dashboard was developed to allow users to easily explore which districts may experience a rise or fall in yield relative to the previous year.

Surrogate modelling techniques have seen growing attention in recent years when applied to both modelling and optimisation of industrial design problems. These techniques are highly relevant when assessing the performance of a particular design carries a high cost, as the overall cost can be mitigated via the construction of a model to be queried in lieu of the available high-cost source. The construction of these models can sometimes employ other sources of information which are both cheaper and less accurate. The existence of these sources however poses the question of which sources should be used when constructing a model. Recent studies have attempted to characterise harmful data sources to guide practitioners in choosing when to ignore a certain source. These studies have done so in a synthetic setting, characterising sources using a large amount of data that is not available in practice. Some of these studies have also been shown to potentially suffer from bias in the benchmarks used in the analysis. In this study, we present a characterisation of harmful low-fidelity sources using only the limited data available to train a surrogate model. We employ recently developed benchmark filtering techniques to conduct a bias-free assessment, providing objectively varied benchmark suites of different sizes for future research. Analysing one of these benchmark suites with the technique known as Instance Space Analysis, we provide an intuitive visualisation of when a low-fidelity source should be used and use this analysis to provide guidelines that can be used in an applied industrial setting.

Kernel techniques are among the most influential approaches in data science and statistics. Under mild conditions, the reproducing kernel Hilbert space associated to a kernel is capable of encoding the independence of $M\ge 2$ random variables. Probably the most widespread independence measure relying on kernels is the so-called Hilbert-Schmidt independence criterion (HSIC; also referred to as distance covariance in the statistics literature). Despite various existing HSIC estimators designed since its introduction close to two decades ago, the fundamental question of the rate at which HSIC can be estimated is still open. In this work, we prove that the minimax optimal rate of HSIC estimation on $\mathbb R^d$ for Borel measures containing the Gaussians with continuous bounded translation-invariant characteristic kernels is $\mathcal O\!\left(n^{-1/2}\right)$. Specifically, our result implies the optimality in the minimax sense of many of the most-frequently used estimators (including the U-statistic, the V-statistic, and the Nystr\"om-based one) on $\mathbb R^d$.

In-context learning is a promising approach for online policy learning of offline reinforcement learning (RL) methods, which can be achieved at inference time without gradient optimization. However, this method is hindered by significant computational costs resulting from the gathering of large training trajectory sets and the need to train large Transformer models. We address this challenge by introducing an In-context Exploration-Exploitation (ICEE) algorithm, designed to optimize the efficiency of in-context policy learning. Unlike existing models, ICEE performs an exploration-exploitation trade-off at inference time within a Transformer model, without the need for explicit Bayesian inference. Consequently, ICEE can solve Bayesian optimization problems as efficiently as Gaussian process biased methods do, but in significantly less time. Through experiments in grid world environments, we demonstrate that ICEE can learn to solve new RL tasks using only tens of episodes, marking a substantial improvement over the hundreds of episodes needed by the previous in-context learning method.

Purpose This article presents a case for a next-generation grid monitoring and control system, leveraging recent advances in generative artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning, and statistical inference. Advancing beyond earlier generations of wide-area monitoring systems built upon supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) and synchrophasor technologies, we argue for a monitoring and control framework based on the streaming of continuous point-on-wave (CPOW) measurements with AI-powered data compression and fault detection. Methods and Results: The architecture of the proposed design originates from the Wiener-Kallianpur innovation representation of a random process that transforms causally a stationary random process into an innovation sequence with independent and identically distributed random variables. This work presents a generative AI approach that (i) learns an innovation autoencoder that extracts innovation sequence from CPOW time series, (ii) compresses the CPOW streaming data with innovation autoencoder and subband coding, and (iii) detects unknown faults and novel trends via nonparametric sequential hypothesis testing. Conclusion: This work argues that conventional monitoring using SCADA and phasor measurement unit (PMU) technologies is ill-suited for a future grid with deep penetration of inverter-based renewable generations and distributed energy resources. A monitoring system based on CPOW data streaming and AI data analytics should be the basic building blocks for situational awareness of a highly dynamic future grid.