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AstroMLab 1: Who Wins Astronomy Jeopardy!?

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We present a comprehensive evaluation of proprietary and open-weights large language models using the first astronomy-specific benchmarking dataset. This dataset comprises 4,425 multiple-choice questions curated from the Annual Review of Astronomy and Astrophysics, covering a broad range of astrophysical topics. Our analysis examines model performance across various astronomical subfields and assesses response calibration, crucial for potential deployment in research environments. Claude-3.5-Sonnet outperforms competitors by up to 4.6 percentage points, achieving 85.0% accuracy. For proprietary models, we observed a universal reduction in cost every 3-to-12 months to achieve similar score in this particular astronomy benchmark. Open-source models have rapidly improved, with LLaMA-3-70b (80.6%) and Qwen-2-72b (77.7%) now competing with some of the best proprietary models. We identify performance variations across topics, with non-English-focused models generally struggling more in exoplanet-related fields, stellar astrophysics, and instrumentation related questions. These challenges likely stem from less abundant training data, limited historical context, and rapid recent developments in these areas. This pattern is observed across both open-weights and proprietary models, with regional dependencies evident, highlighting the impact of training data diversity on model performance in specialized scientific domains. Top-performing models demonstrate well-calibrated confidence, with correlations above 0.9 between confidence and correctness, though they tend to be slightly underconfident. The development for fast, low-cost inference of open-weights models presents new opportunities for affordable deployment in astronomy. The rapid progress observed suggests that LLM-driven research in astronomy may become feasible in the near future.


BECAUSE: Bilinear Causal Representation for Generalizable Offline Model-based Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Offline model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL) enhances data efficiency by utilizing pre-collected datasets to learn models and policies, especially in scenarios where exploration is costly or infeasible. Nevertheless, its performance often suffers from the objective mismatch between model and policy learning, resulting in inferior performance despite accurate model predictions. This paper first identifies the primary source of this mismatch comes from the underlying confounders present in offline data for MBRL. Subsequently, we introduce BilinEar CAUSal rEpresentation (BECAUSE), an algorithm to capture causal representation for both states and actions to reduce the influence of the distribution shift, thus mitigating the objective mismatch problem. Comprehensive evaluations on 18 tasks that vary in data quality and environment context demonstrate the superior performance of BECAUSE over existing offline RL algorithms. We show the generalizability and robustness of BECAUSE under fewer samples or larger numbers of confounders. Additionally, we offer theoretical analysis of BECAUSE to prove its error bound and sample efficiency when integrating causal representation into offline MBRL.


Inertial Confinement Fusion Forecasting via LLMs

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Controlled fusion energy is deemed pivotal for the advancement of human civilization. In this study, we introduce $\textbf{Fusion-LLM}$, a novel integration of Large Language Models (LLMs) with classical reservoir computing paradigms tailored to address challenges in Inertial Confinement Fusion ($\texttt{ICF}$). Our approach offers several key contributions: Firstly, we propose the $\textit{LLM-anchored Reservoir}$, augmented with a fusion-specific prompt, enabling accurate forecasting of hot electron dynamics during implosion. Secondly, we develop $\textit{Signal-Digesting Channels}$ to temporally and spatially describe the laser intensity across time, capturing the unique characteristics of $\texttt{ICF}$ inputs. Lastly, we design the $\textit{Confidence Scanner}$ to quantify the confidence level in forecasting, providing valuable insights for domain experts to design the $\texttt{ICF}$ process. Extensive experiments demonstrate the superior performance of our method, achieving 1.90 CAE, 0.14 $\texttt{top-1}$ MAE, and 0.11 $\texttt{top-5}$ MAE in predicting Hard X-ray ($\texttt{HXR}$) energies of $\texttt{ICF}$ tasks, which presents state-of-the-art comparisons against concurrent best systems. Additionally, we present $\textbf{Fusion4AI}$, the first $\texttt{ICF}$ benchmark based on physical experiments, aimed at fostering novel ideas in plasma physics research and enhancing the utility of LLMs in scientific exploration. Overall, our work strives to forge an innovative synergy between AI and plasma science for advancing fusion energy.


Auto-Multilift: Distributed Learning and Control for Cooperative Load Transportation With Quadrotors

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Designing motion control and planning algorithms for multilift systems remains challenging due to the complexities of dynamics, collision avoidance, actuator limits, and scalability. Existing methods that use optimization and distributed techniques effectively address these constraints and scalability issues. However, they often require substantial manual tuning, leading to suboptimal performance. This paper proposes Auto-Multilift, a novel framework that automates the tuning of model predictive controllers (MPCs) for multilift systems. We model the MPC cost functions with deep neural networks (DNNs), enabling fast online adaptation to various scenarios. We develop a distributed policy gradient algorithm to train these DNNs efficiently in a closed-loop manner. Central to our algorithm is distributed sensitivity propagation, which is built on fully exploiting the unique dynamic couplings within the multilift system. It parallelizes gradient computation across quadrotors and focuses on actual system state sensitivities relative to key MPC parameters. Extensive simulations demonstrate favorable scalability to a large number of quadrotors. Our method outperforms a state-of-the-art open-loop MPC tuning approach by effectively learning adaptive MPCs from trajectory tracking errors. It also excels in learning an adaptive reference for reconfiguring the system when traversing multiple narrow slots.


Adaptive Model Predictive Control with Data-driven Error Model for Quadrupedal Locomotion

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Model Predictive Control (MPC) relies heavily on the robot model for its control law. However, a gap always exists between the reduced-order control model with uncertainties and the real robot, which degrades its performance. To address this issue, we propose the controller of integrating a data-driven error model into traditional MPC for quadruped robots. Our approach leverages real-world data from sensors to compensate for defects in the control model. Specifically, we employ the Autoregressive Moving Average Vector (ARMAV) model to construct the state error model of the quadruped robot using data. The predicted state errors are then used to adjust the predicted future robot states generated by MPC. By such an approach, our proposed controller can provide more accurate inputs to the system, enabling it to achieve desired states even in the presence of model parameter inaccuracies or disturbances. The proposed controller exhibits the capability to partially eliminate the disparity between the model and the real-world robot, thereby enhancing the locomotion performance of quadruped robots. We validate our proposed method through simulations and real-world experimental trials on a large-size quadruped robot that involves carrying a 20 kg un-modeled payload (84% of body weight).


Towards detailed and interpretable hybrid modeling of continental-scale bird migration

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Hybrid modeling aims to augment traditional theory-driven models with machine learning components that learn unknown parameters, sub-models or correction terms from data. In this work, we build on FluxRGNN, a recently developed hybrid model of continental-scale bird migration, which combines a movement model inspired by fluid dynamics with recurrent neural networks that capture the complex decision-making processes of birds. While FluxRGNN has been shown to successfully predict key migration patterns, its spatial resolution is constrained by the typically sparse observations obtained from weather radars. Additionally, its trainable components lack explicit incentives to adequately predict take-off and landing events. Both aspects limit our ability to interpret model results ecologically. To address this, we propose two major modifications that allow for more detailed predictions on any desired tessellation while providing control over the interpretability of model components. In experiments on the U.S. weather radar network, the enhanced model effectively leverages the underlying movement model, resulting in strong extrapolation capabilities to unobserved locations.


Melon Fruit Detection and Quality Assessment Using Generative AI-Based Image Data Augmentation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Monitoring and managing the growth and quality of fruits are very important tasks. To effectively train deep learning models like YOLO for real-time fruit detection, high-quality image datasets are essential. However, such datasets are often lacking in agriculture. Generative AI models can help create high-quality images. In this study, we used MidJourney and Firefly tools to generate images of melon greenhouses and post-harvest fruits through text-to-image, pre-harvest image-to-image, and post-harvest image-to-image methods. We evaluated these AIgenerated images using PSNR and SSIM metrics and tested the detection performance of the YOLOv9 model. We also assessed the net quality of real and generated fruits. Our results showed that generative AI could produce images very similar to real ones, especially for post-harvest fruits. The YOLOv9 model detected the generated images well, and the net quality was also measurable. This shows that generative AI can create realistic images useful for fruit detection and quality assessment, indicating its great potential in agriculture. This study highlights the potential of AI-generated images for data augmentation in melon fruit detection and quality assessment and envisions a positive future for generative AI applications in agriculture.


ODD: Omni Differential Drive for Simultaneous Reconfiguration and Omnidirectional Mobility of Wheeled Robots

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Wheeled robots are highly efficient in human living environments. However, conventional wheeled designs, with their limited degrees of freedom and constraints in robot configuration, struggle to simultaneously achieve stability, passability, and agility due to varying footprint needs. This paper proposes a novel robot drive model inspired by human movements, termed as the Omni Differential Drive (ODD). The ODD model innovatively utilizes a lateral differential drive to adjust wheel spacing without adding additional actuators to the existing omnidirectional drive. This approach enables wheeled robots to achieve both simultaneous reconfiguration and omnidirectional mobility. To validate the feasibility of the ODD model, a functional prototype was developed, followed by comprehensive kinematic analyses. Control systems for self-balancing and motion control were designed and implemented. Experimental validations confirmed the feasibility of the ODD mechanism and the effectiveness of the control strategies. The results underline the potential of this innovative drive system to enhance the mobility and adaptability of robotic platforms.


xLSTMTime : Long-term Time Series Forecasting With xLSTM

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In recent years, transformer-based models have gained prominence in multivariate long-term time series forecasting (LTSF), demonstrating significant advancements despite facing challenges such as high computational demands, difficulty in capturing temporal dynamics, and managing long-term dependencies. The emergence of LTSF-Linear, with its straightforward linear architecture, has notably outperformed transformer-based counterparts, prompting a reevaluation of the transformer's utility in time series forecasting. In response, this paper presents an adaptation of a recent architecture termed extended LSTM (xLSTM) for LTSF. xLSTM incorporates exponential gating and a revised memory structure with higher capacity that has good potential for LTSF. Our adopted architecture for LTSF termed as xLSTMTime surpasses current approaches. We compare xLSTMTime's performance against various state-of-the-art models across multiple real-world da-tasets, demonstrating superior forecasting capabilities. Our findings suggest that refined recurrent architectures can offer competitive alternatives to transformer-based models in LTSF tasks, po-tentially redefining the landscape of time series forecasting.


Proof-of-Learning with Incentive Security

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Most concurrent blockchain systems rely heavily on the Proof-of-Work (PoW) or Proof-of-Stake (PoS) mechanisms for decentralized consensus and security assurance. However, the substantial energy expenditure stemming from computationally intensive yet meaningless tasks has raised considerable concerns surrounding traditional PoW approaches, The PoS mechanism, while free of energy consumption, is subject to security and economic issues. Addressing these issues, the paradigm of Proof-of-Useful-Work (PoUW) seeks to employ challenges of practical significance as PoW, thereby imbuing energy consumption with tangible value. While previous efforts in Proof of Learning (PoL) explored the utilization of deep learning model training SGD tasks as PoUW challenges, recent research has revealed its vulnerabilities to adversarial attacks and the theoretical hardness in crafting a byzantine-secure PoL mechanism. In this paper, we introduce the concept of incentive-security that incentivizes rational provers to behave honestly for their best interest, bypassing the existing hardness to design a PoL mechanism with computational efficiency, a provable incentive-security guarantee and controllable difficulty. Particularly, our work is secure against two attacks to the recent work of Jia et al. [2021], and also improves the computational overhead from $\Theta(1)$ to $O(\frac{\log E}{E})$. Furthermore, while most recent research assumes trusted problem providers and verifiers, our design also guarantees frontend incentive-security even when problem providers are untrusted, and verifier incentive-security that bypasses the Verifier's Dilemma. By incorporating ML training into blockchain consensus mechanisms with provable guarantees, our research not only proposes an eco-friendly solution to blockchain systems, but also provides a proposal for a completely decentralized computing power market in the new AI age.