In finding causal effects, researchers may want to know the effect across an entire population, sometimes called a total or unconditional causal effect. For example, does free access to pre-kindergarten (pre-K) improve children's socio-emotional skills throughout elementary school (Moffett et al., 2023)? However, researchers may want to know the effect within subgroups of the population, or a conditional causal effect. For instance, is there a subgroup of children who particularly benefit from free access to pre-K? Our research considers identifying these conditional effects from observational data.

This paper introduces a framework for uncertainty quantification in regression models defined in metric spaces. Leveraging a newly defined notion of homoscedasticity, we develop a conformal prediction algorithm that offers finite-sample coverage guarantees and fast convergence rates of the oracle estimator. In heteroscedastic settings, we forgo these non-asymptotic guarantees to gain statistical efficiency, proposing a local $k$--nearest--neighbor method without conformal calibration that is adaptive to the geometry of each particular nonlinear space. Both procedures work with any regression algorithm and are scalable to large data sets, allowing practitioners to plug in their preferred models and incorporate domain expertise. We prove consistency for the proposed estimators under minimal conditions. Finally, we demonstrate the practical utility of our approach in personalized--medicine applications involving random response objects such as probability distributions and graph Laplacians.

We present the LLM Economist, a novel framework that uses agent-based modeling to design and assess economic policies in strategic environments with hierarchical decision-making. At the lower level, bounded rational worker agents -- instantiated as persona-conditioned prompts sampled from U.S. Census-calibrated income and demographic statistics -- choose labor supply to maximize text-based utility functions learned in-context. At the upper level, a planner agent employs in-context reinforcement learning to propose piecewise-linear marginal tax schedules anchored to the current U.S. federal brackets. This construction endows economic simulacra with three capabilities requisite for credible fiscal experimentation: (i) optimization of heterogeneous utilities, (ii) principled generation of large, demographically realistic agent populations, and (iii) mechanism design -- the ultimate nudging problem -- expressed entirely in natural language. Experiments with populations of up to one hundred interacting agents show that the planner converges near Stackelberg equilibria that improve aggregate social welfare relative to Saez solutions, while a periodic, persona-level voting procedure furthers these gains under decentralized governance. These results demonstrate that large language model-based agents can jointly model, simulate, and govern complex economic systems, providing a tractable test bed for policy evaluation at the societal scale to help build better civilizations.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have been evaluated using diverse question types, e.g., multiple-choice, true/false, and short/long answers. This study answers an unexplored question about the impact of different question types on LLM accuracy on reasoning tasks. We investigate the performance of five LLMs on three different types of questions using quantitative and deductive reasoning tasks. The performance metrics include accuracy in the reasoning steps and choosing the final answer. Key Findings: (1) Significant differences exist in LLM performance across different question types. (2) Reasoning accuracy does not necessarily correlate with the final selection accuracy. (3) The number of options and the choice of words, influence LLM performance.

--This paper presents Forte, a fully 3D-printable, 6-DoF robotic arm designed to achieve near industrial-grade performance - 0 . As an accessible robot for broad applications across classroom education to AI experiments, Forte pushes forward the performance limitations of existing low-cost educational arms. We introduce a cost-effective mechanical design that combines capstan-based cable drives, timing belts, simple tensioning mechanisms, and lightweight 3D-printed structures, along with topology optimization for structural stiffness. Through careful drivetrain engineering, we minimize backlash and maintain control fidelity without relying on high-power electronics or expensive manufacturing processes. Experimental validation demonstrates that Forte achieves high repeatability and load capacity, offering a compelling robotic platform for both classroom instruction and advanced robotics research. Can we build a 6-degree-of-freedom (DoF) robotic arm with a material cost under $400, while achieving a half-meter workspace, a payload capacity of more than 0.5 kg, and repeatability within 0. 5 mm? We introduce Forte, a fully 3D-printed robotic manipulator, developed to affirmatively answer this question. In light of surging interest in robotics and artificial intelligence, providing accessible, hands-on educational tools has never been more important, as practical experience and experimental validation are essential components of robotics education.

Using multiple-choice questions (MCQs) has become a standard for assessing LLM capabilities efficiently. A variety of metrics can be employed for this task. However, previous research has not conducted a thorough assessment of them. At the same time, MCQ evaluation suffers from answer fluctuation: models produce different results given slight changes in prompts. We suggest a metric assessment protocol in which evaluation methodologies are analyzed through their connection with fluctuation rates, as well as original performance. Our results show that there is a strong link between existing metrics and the answer changing, even when computed without any additional prompt variants. A novel metric, worst accuracy, demonstrates the highest association on the protocol.

Recent progress in LLMs, such as reasoning models, has demonstrated strong abilities to solve complex competitive programming problems, often rivaling top human competitors. However, it remains underexplored whether these abilities generalize to relevant domains that are less seen during training. To address this, we introduce AlgoSimBench, a new benchmark designed to assess LLMs' ability to identify algorithmically similar problems (ASPs)-problems that can be solved using similar algorithmic approaches. AlgoSimBench consists of 1317 problems, annotated with 231 distinct fine-grained algorithm tags, from which we curate 402 multiple-choice questions (MCQs), where each question presents one algorithmically similar problem alongside three textually similar but algorithmically dissimilar distractors. Our evaluation reveals that LLMs struggle to identify ASPs, with the best-performing model (o3-mini) achieving only 65.9% accuracy on the MCQ task. To address this challenge, we propose attempted solution matching (ASM), a novel method for improving problem similarity detection. On our MCQ task, ASM yields an absolute accuracy improvement of 6.7% to 11.7% across different models. We also evaluated code embedding models and retrieval methods on similar problem identification. While the adversarial selection of problems degrades the performance to be less than random, we found that simply summarizing the problem to remove narrative elements eliminates the effect, and combining ASM with a keyword-prioritized method, BM25, can yield up to 52.2% accuracy. Code and data are available at github.com

The performance of Large Language Models (LLMs) is fundamentally determined by the contextual information provided during inference. This survey introduces Context Engineering, a formal discipline that transcends simple prompt design to encompass the systematic optimization of information payloads for LLMs. We present a comprehensive taxonomy decomposing Context Engineering into its foundational components and the sophisticated implementations that integrate them into intelligent systems. We first examine the foundational components: context retrieval and generation, context processing and context management. We then explore how these components are architecturally integrated to create sophisticated system implementations: retrieval-augmented generation (RAG), memory systems and tool-integrated reasoning, and multi-agent systems. Through this systematic analysis of over 1400 research papers, our survey not only establishes a technical roadmap for the field but also reveals a critical research gap: a fundamental asymmetry exists between model capabilities. While current models, augmented by advanced context engineering, demonstrate remarkable proficiency in understanding complex contexts, they exhibit pronounced limitations in generating equally sophisticated, long-form outputs. Addressing this gap is a defining priority for future research. Ultimately, this survey provides a unified framework for both researchers and engineers advancing context-aware AI.

We present Kwaipilot-AutoThink (KAT), an open-source 40B large language model developed to address the overthinking problem in reasoning-intensive tasks, where an automatic thinking training paradigm is proposed to dynamically switch between reasoning and non-reasoning modes based on task complexity. Specifically, first, we construct the dual-regime dataset based on a novel tagging pipeline and a multi-agent synthesis strategy, and then we apply Multi-Token Prediction (MTP)-enhanced knowledge distillation, enabling efficient and fine-grained reasoning transfer with minimal pretraining cost. Besides, we implement a cold-start initialization strategy that introduces mode-selection priors using majority-vote signals and intent-aware prompting. Finally, we propose Step-SRPO, a reinforcement learning algorithm that incorporates intermediate supervision into the GRPO framework, offering structured guidance over both reasoning-mode selection and response accuracy. Extensive experiments across multiple benchmarks demonstrate that KAT consistently matches or even outperforms current state-of-the-art models, including DeepSeek-R1-0528 and Qwen3-235B-A22B, across a wide range of reasoning-intensive tasks while reducing token usage. Notably, KAT outperforms all open-source models and even surpasses o3-mini on the leakage-controlled LiveCodeBench Pro. Beyond academic evaluation, KAT has been successfully deployed in Kwaipilot (i.e., Kuaishou's internal coding assistant), where it improves real-world development workflows with high accuracy, efficiency, and controllable reasoning behaviors. Moreover, we are actively training a 200B Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) model with 40B active parameters, and early results already show significant gains, further demonstrating the scalability of the AutoThink paradigm.

Realistic, high-fidelity 3D facial animations are crucial for expressive avatar systems in human-computer interaction and accessibility. Although prior methods show promising quality, their reliance on the mesh domain limits their ability to fully leverage the rapid visual innovations seen in 2D computer vision and graphics. We propose VisualSpeaker, a novel method that bridges this gap using photorealistic differentiable rendering, supervised by visual speech recognition, for improved 3D facial animation. Our contribution is a perceptual lip-reading loss, derived by passing photorealistic 3D Gaussian Splatting avatar renders through a pre-trained Visual Automatic Speech Recognition model during training. Evaluation on the MEAD dataset demonstrates that VisualSpeaker improves both the standard Lip Vertex Error metric by 56.1% and the perceptual quality of the generated animations, while retaining the controllability of mesh-driven animation. This perceptual focus naturally supports accurate mouthings, essential cues that disambiguate similar manual signs in sign language avatars.