Modern Artificial Intelligence achieves remarkable predictive power by optimizing statistical risk functionals over vast corpora. Yet a gap separates this from genuine intelligence: the inability to distinguish correlation from causation. This paper argues that causal inference (identifying mechanisms invariant under intervention) is AI's indispensable statistical conscience. Without causal grounding, AI systems are correlation machines: powerful in familiar domains, brittle under distribution shift, and biased in high-stakes settings. Three contributions develop this argument. First, a Statistical Necessity Theorem for Causal Generalization: any algorithm achieving out-of-distribution generalization must encode causal structure, formalizing the distinction between prediction P(Y|X) and intelligence P(Y|do(X)). Second, a unified framework connects Pearl's do-calculus, the Potential Outcomes framework, Double Machine Learning, and Invariant Risk Minimization as a family of Causal Statistical Estimators, each identifying interventional distributions under different assumptions. Third, three AI failure modes (hallucination in large language models, reward hacking in reinforcement learning from human feedback, and degradation under distribution shift) are manifestations of causal blindness, each admitting a principled statistical remedy. Trustworthy AI is, at its core, a problem of causal statistics. The statistical community is not merely equipped to solve it -- it is the only community with the foundational tools to do so rigorously.

We study the problem of identifying dynamically distinct basins of attraction in high dimensional time-homogeneous Markov processes using only trajectory sampling. This problem is fundamental in the analysis of metastable dynamical systems, where the process rapidly mixes within basins while transitions between basins occur rarely on the timescale of interest, or even when the state space is reducible. Existing approaches typically rely on spatial discretization or spectral analysis of estimated transition operators, which can become unreliable in high dimensional settings or when the underlying basin geometry is highly nonlinear. We propose a discriminative approach to basin identification based on marginal trajectory distribution comparison. We prove a simple risk separation result: if two initial states belong to the same basin, the Bayes-optimal classifier distinguishing their marginal trajectory distributions achieves risk close to 1/2, whereas if they lie in distinct basins, the optimal risk is close to zero. This observation reduces basin detection to a two-sample discrimination problem between marginal trajectory distributions. Motivated by this principle, we develop a neural algorithm that receives a set of candidate basin representatives and iteratively merges them by estimating classification risk with a neural network that approximates the Bayes classifier. We evaluate the method on various metastable systems. These include synthetic systems constructed by embedding low-dimensional dynamics into high dimensional noisy ambient spaces. In these settings, standard spectral and clustering-based methods often fail, while our approach accurately recovers the underlying basin structure. These results display a shortcoming of existing methods and highlight trajectory discrimination as an effective tool for identifying dynamical basins in high dimensional stochastic systems.

What functions can Neural Processes represent? We analyze the representational capacity of popular NP architectures: Conditional Neural Processes (CNPs), Attentive Neural Processes (ANPs), Transformer Neural Processes (TNPs), and their latent variants. We prove these architectures form a strict hierarchy. CNP-representable functions are exactly those depending on finitely many expected features of the context distribution. ANPs strictly generalize CNPs via query-dependent reweighting, enabling kernel smoothers. ConvCNPs and ANPs are incomparable; each contains functions outside the other, separated by stationarity versus translation equivariance. TNPs with $L$ self-attention layers capture $L$-hop context interactions. For latent NPs, we show finite-dimensional latents provide coherent sampling but do not circumvent encoder limitations; matching GP posterior distributions requires latent dimension scaling with context size. These results provide a theoretical foundation for architecture selection based on task structure.

Deploying clinical prediction models across healthcare systems often fails when key training covariates are unavailable at deployment and labeled outcomes are limited in the target domain. For example, high-performing models for out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) rely on detailed prehospital measurements routinely collected in high-resource settings but unavailable in many international registries. Existing methods either discard missing covariates, sacrificing predictive information, or rely on untestable assumptions about their target distribution. We propose DRUM (\underline{D}istributionally \underline{R}obust \underline{U}nsupervised transfer learning with structurally \underline{M}issing covariates), a framework that transfers prediction models to target populations where certain covariates are structurally absent and outcome labels are unavailable. DRUM partitions covariates into shared components ($X$), observed across all settings, and missing components ($A$), observed only in the source. Rather than imputing missing covariates, DRUM optimizes worst-case predictive performance over the unknown target distribution of $A \mid X$ using a neural network generator, with a robustness parameter controlling allowable deviation from the source conditional. We further develop a bias correction procedure that reduces sensitivity to nuisance estimation error. Simulations show substantial improvements in both mean and worst-case prediction error under distribution shift. Applied to cross-national OHCA prediction, transferring models from a US registry to multiple Asian registries where prehospital variables are unrecorded, DRUM yields better-calibrated predictions and improved clinical classification performance across sites.

In 3D scene understanding, deep learning models rely on large models and extensive training to capture basic geometric structures that are present in the 3D data. However, existing methods lack explicit mechanisms to incorporate geometric information, such as learnable primitive shapes, often necessitating large models and more training data which in turn increases cost and can limit generalization. We introduce GIBLy, a lightweight geometric inductive bias layer that integrates learnable geometric priors into 3D segmentation pipelines. GIBLy enhances existing architectures -- whether MLP-based, convolution-based, or transformer-based -- by providing features aligned with simple geometric shapes (and thus human-interpretable) that improve segmentation performance with minimal computational overhead. We validate our approach across multiple 3D semantic segmentation benchmarks, demonstrating consistent performance gains, including up to +11.5% mIoU on TS40K with PTV3, while adding only 58K extra parameters. Our results highlight the benefit of explicitly encoding geometric structure to support accurate and efficient 3D scene understanding, with a lightweight add-on layer

Low-dimensional embeddings are widely used as visual summaries of high-dimensional data and to enable downstream scientific discoveries. Yet, popular nonlinear dimension reduction methods, such as t-SNE and UMAP, are often selected based on visual appeal alone and without rigorous quantitative validation. A major reason is that manifold embeddings typically do not provide an out-of-sample map nor an inverse back to the original feature space; this makes held-out validation, the gold standard in supervised learning, all but impossible. To address these challenges, we develop a novel framework, MEDAL (Manifold Embedding Distillation via Autoencoder Learning), which distills a fitted manifold embedding into a reusable encoder--decoder model. MEDAL trains a constrained autoencoder whose bottleneck exactly matches any teacher embedding while the decoder reconstructs the original input; this yields an explicit map for new samples, an approximate inverse, and a pointwise reconstruction-based measure of distortion in the manifold space. This converts static manifold embeddings into models that can be evaluated on held-out data, enabling quantitative validation including comparing different dimension reduction methods as well as hyperparameter tuning. Across multiple benchmark and scientific case studies, we show that MEDAL enables held-out validation to determine optimal manifold embeddings and hyperparameters, reveals biologically coherent regions that are difficult to preserve in two dimensional embeddings, and detects distribution shift when new samples are mapped into a fixed reference manifold. MEDAL provides a general validation wrapper to any existing dimension reduction technique that will improve the rigor and

Input-convex neural networks (ICNNs) are widely used for log-concave density estimation, convex-potential normalizing flows, optimal transport, and transport-map inversion for high-dimensional Bayesian posteriors. These tasks share a structural constraint: the inter-layer weights of the ICNN must remain non-negative. The standard recipe, projected gradient descent (PGD) onto the non-negative cone, applies a hard, non-smooth projection -- the stiff-penalty limit of an ADMM-style constraint splitting -- and its classical convergence guarantees do not transfer to the non-smooth ICNN training landscape; the differentiable alternative, softplus reparametrization, attenuates the gradient exponentially in the weight magnitude, stalling training with dead inter-layer weights and plateaued loss. Inspired by parameter-extension lifts of PDE-constrained inverse problems, we propose the lift: instead of constraining the inter-layer weights directly, we train an unconstrained hypernetwork that emits them from a permutation-invariant summary of the input batch. This adds stochasticity to the training dynamics that softens the loss landscape, letting the iterates escape the gradient-attenuated region where direct softplus stalls. We trace this softening to three structural ingredients -- a learnable bias acting as slack, a hypernetwork body that conditions on the target batch, and a cross-covariance coupling the two through batch stochasticity -- and prove each one necessary: deleting any single ingredient collapses the cross-covariance that carries the softening. On log-concave energy-based modeling from one-dimensional toy targets to image-flavored latents, and convex-potential normalizing flows on a 21-dimensional tabular benchmark, we show that the lift reaches a lower test loss than both PGD and direct softplus, and turns a plateau-bounded training trajectory into a valley-descending one.

This paper studies the joint role of long-memory dynamics,rough-volatility behavior, and persistence-based forecasting features in equity volatility modeling. We combine semiparametric long-memory estimation, rough-volatility diagnostics, and structured forecasting regressions to examine whether persistence measures contain economically meaningful forecasting information beyond conventional volatility predictors. Using a panel of 115 S&P500 constituents from November 2001 through April 2026, we document that volatility proxies exhibit substantial long-memory behavior and locally rough dynamics. The cross-sectional mean Geweke-Porter-Hudak estimate of the memory parameter is $\hat{d} = 0.226$, while the corresponding local-Whittle estimate is $\hat{d} = 0.440$, with statistical significance observed across nearly the entire panel. Rolling estimates of persistence rise substantially during the global financial crisis and the COVID period and display a positive contemporaneous association with the VIX. We then examine whether persistence-related features improve out-of-sample volatility forecasts beyond standard HAR and HAR-X benchmarks. Incorporating cross-sectional persistence aggregates, sectoral persistence measures, and persistence-by-stress interaction terms produces moderate but statistically significant forecasting improvements, particularly at longer horizons and during stress regimes. Forecast gains are strongest during periods of elevated market volatility and in volatility-managed portfolio applications. The results suggest that persistence measures may serve as useful reduced-form indicators of the duration and propagation of uncertainty in financial markets, although the paper does not claim structural identification of the economic mechanisms generating persistence.

We propose PACE-GGM, a data-adaptive differentially private method for covariance estimation that concentrates its privacy budget on the most informative entries of the empirical covariance matrix, rather than perturbing all entries. This applies in the natural setting where the modeler supplies separate bounds for each variable, so that individual entries can be measured with less noise than the full matrix. In each round, our method selects a poorly approximated entry, measures it using the Gaussian mechanism, and then reconstructs a full covariance matrix using a maximum-entropy reconstruction objective, leading to a Gaussian graphical model structure. Experiments on diverse real-world datasets demonstrate consistent improvements in estimation error with respect to the Gaussian mechanism and other baselines, particularly in high-dimensional and low-to-moderate privacy regimes.

Context or prompt-level reweighting has emerged as a central algorithmic lever in Reinforcement Learning with Verified Rewards (RLVR) for improving the reasoning capability of large language models, yet the principle determining what constitutes an optimal weighting remains poorly understood. We address this gap by formulating prompt reweighting as a functional derivative of a utility functional defined in the pass-rate function space, yielding a unified optimality framework that accommodates existing schemes, including REINFORCE and GRPO. Building on this optimality framework, we propose a distribution-aware prompt reweighting approach, called CurveRL, based on a quantile coordinate transform, in which the weight assigned to each prompt depends not on the absolute value of pass rates but on its rank and density to reflect the distributional structure of the pass rates in the learning dynamics. Extensive experiments across multiple benchmarks demonstrate that our proposed CurveRL consistently outperforms GRPO and other RLVR baselines. Our study identifies context-distribution control as a principled axis for analyzing and designing prompt-reweighted RLVR algorithms. The code is released in https://github.com/zhyzmath/CurveRL.