This book aims to provide a working introduction to the emerging fusion of modern statistical inference - aka machine learning (ML) or artificial intelligence (AI) - and causal inference methods. The book is aimed at upper level undergraduates and master's-level students as well as doctoral students focusing on applied empirical research. A sufficient background for the core material is one semester of introductory econometrics and one semester of machine learning. We hope the book is also useful to empirical researchers looking to apply modern methods in their work. The book provides an overview of key ideas in both predictive inference and causal inference and shows how predictive tools are key ingredients to answering many causal questions.

Time-series modeling in process industries faces the challenge of dealing with complex, multi-faceted, and evolving data characteristics. Conventional single model approaches often struggle to capture the interplay of diverse dynamics, resulting in suboptimal forecasts. Addressing this, we introduce the Recency-Weighted Temporally-Segmented (ReWTS, pronounced `roots') ensemble model, a novel chunk-based approach for multi-step forecasting. The key characteristics of the ReWTS model are twofold: 1) It facilitates specialization of models into different dynamics by segmenting the training data into `chunks' of data and training one model per chunk. 2) During inference, an optimization procedure assesses each model on the recent past and selects the active models, such that the appropriate mixture of previously learned dynamics can be recalled to forecast the future. This method not only captures the nuances of each period, but also adapts more effectively to changes over time compared to conventional `global' models trained on all data in one go. We present a comparative analysis, utilizing two years of data from a wastewater treatment plant and a drinking water treatment plant in Norway, demonstrating the ReWTS ensemble's superiority. It consistently outperforms the global model in terms of mean squared forecasting error across various model architectures by 10-70\% on both datasets, notably exhibiting greater resilience to outliers. This approach shows promise in developing automatic, adaptable forecasting models for decision-making and control systems in process industries and other complex systems.

Music-based reminiscence has the potential to positively impact the psychological well-being of older adults. However, the aging process and physiological changes, such as memory decline and limited verbal communication, may impede the ability of older adults to recall their memories and life experiences. Given the advanced capabilities of generative artificial intelligence (AI) systems, such as generated conversations and images, and their potential to facilitate the reminiscing process, this study aims to explore the design of generative AI to support music-based reminiscence in older adults. This study follows a user-centered design approach incorporating various stages, including detailed interviews with two social workers and two design workshops (involving ten older adults). Our work contributes to an in-depth understanding of older adults' attitudes toward utilizing generative AI for supporting music-based reminiscence and identifies concrete design considerations for the future design of generative AI to enhance the reminiscence experience of older adults.

In the current machine translation (MT) landscape, the Transformer architecture stands out as the gold standard, especially for high-resource language pairs. This research delves into its efficacy for low-resource language pairs including both the English$\leftrightarrow$Irish and English$\leftrightarrow$Marathi language pairs. Notably, the study identifies the optimal hyperparameters and subword model type to significantly improve the translation quality of Transformer models for low-resource language pairs. The scarcity of parallel datasets for low-resource languages can hinder MT development. To address this, gaHealth was developed, the first bilingual corpus of health data for the Irish language. Focusing on the health domain, models developed using this in-domain dataset exhibited very significant improvements in BLEU score when compared with models from the LoResMT2021 Shared Task. A subsequent human evaluation using the multidimensional quality metrics error taxonomy showcased the superior performance of the Transformer system in reducing both accuracy and fluency errors compared to an RNN-based counterpart. Furthermore, this thesis introduces adaptNMT and adaptMLLM, two open-source applications streamlined for the development, fine-tuning, and deployment of neural machine translation models. These tools considerably simplify the setup and evaluation process, making MT more accessible to both developers and translators. Notably, adaptNMT, grounded in the OpenNMT ecosystem, promotes eco-friendly natural language processing research by highlighting the environmental footprint of model development. Fine-tuning of MLLMs by adaptMLLM demonstrated advancements in translation performance for two low-resource language pairs: English$\leftrightarrow$Irish and English$\leftrightarrow$Marathi, compared to baselines from the LoResMT2021 Shared Task.

Knowledge graphs have garnered significant research attention and are widely used to enhance downstream applications. However, most current studies mainly focus on static knowledge graphs, whose facts do not change with time, and disregard their dynamic evolution over time. As a result, temporal knowledge graphs have attracted more attention because a large amount of structured knowledge exists only within a specific period. Knowledge graph representation learning aims to learn low-dimensional vector embeddings for entities and relations in a knowledge graph. The representation learning of temporal knowledge graphs incorporates time information into the standard knowledge graph framework and can model the dynamics of entities and relations over time. In this paper, we conduct a comprehensive survey of temporal knowledge graph representation learning and its applications. We begin with an introduction to the definitions, datasets, and evaluation metrics for temporal knowledge graph representation learning. Next, we propose a taxonomy based on the core technologies of temporal knowledge graph representation learning methods, and provide an in-depth analysis of different methods in each category. Finally, we present various downstream applications related to the temporal knowledge graphs. In the end, we conclude the paper and have an outlook on the future research directions in this area.

In today's digital world, social media plays a significant role in facilitating communication and content sharing. However, the exponential rise in user-generated content has led to challenges in maintaining a respectful online environment. In some cases, users have taken advantage of anonymity in order to use harmful language, which can negatively affect the user experience and pose serious social problems. Recognizing the limitations of manual moderation, automatic detection systems have been developed to tackle this problem. Nevertheless, several obstacles persist, including the absence of a universal definition for harmful language, inadequate datasets across languages, the need for detailed annotation guideline, and most importantly, a comprehensive framework. This study aims to address these challenges by introducing, for the first time, a detailed framework adaptable to any language. This framework encompasses various aspects of harmful language detection. A key component of the framework is the development of a general and detailed annotation guideline. Additionally, the integration of sentiment analysis represents a novel approach to enhancing harmful language detection. Also, a definition of harmful language based on the review of different related concepts is presented. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework, its implementation in a challenging low-resource language is conducted. We collected a Persian dataset and applied the annotation guideline for harmful detection and sentiment analysis. Next, we present baseline experiments utilizing machine and deep learning methods to set benchmarks. Results prove the framework's high performance, achieving an accuracy of 99.4% in offensive language detection and 66.2% in sentiment analysis.

We have witnessed lately a rapid proliferation of advanced Large Language Models (LLMs) capable of generating high-quality text. While these LLMs have revolutionized text generation across various domains, they also pose significant risks to the information ecosystem, such as the potential for generating convincing propaganda, misinformation, and disinformation at scale. This paper offers a review of AI-generated text forensic systems, an emerging field addressing the challenges of LLM misuses. We present an overview of the existing efforts in AI-generated text forensics by introducing a detailed taxonomy, focusing on three primary pillars: detection, attribution, and characterization. These pillars enable a practical understanding of AI-generated text, from identifying AI-generated content (detection), determining the specific AI model involved (attribution), and grouping the underlying intents of the text (characterization). Furthermore, we explore available resources for AI-generated text forensics research and discuss the evolving challenges and future directions of forensic systems in an AI era.

During the final half-day of the AI-HRI symposium, the community was joined by the Unifying Representations for Robot Application Development (UR-RAD) symposium attendees to discuss needs, expectations, and preferences for future gatherings like TAHRI to maintain the welcoming, inclusive, and close community that has persisted throughout the ten years of AI-HRI. The AAAI Fall Symposium Series provided an opportunity ten years ago for researchers at the intersection of the fields of AI and HRI to come together in an attempt to identify where they belong when neither field's venues seemed to provide the correct fit for their research contributions, serving as a bridge between the two areas of study. As the community met and learned from each other over the past ten iterations of the symposium, it became clearer that AI-HRI is a unique field of study that is equally important to both fields and their venues--more importantly, these gatherings fostered a strong, supportive community that recognizes the challenges that their colleagues face trying to understand AI problems in HRI domains, as well as HRI problems surfacing as AI becomes more ubiquitous in society. Everyone wanted more time in break-out discussions due to the wonderful, productive conversations and networking, which is a testament to the community's positive and comfortable engagement between both familiar and new faces. Although the tenth anniversary marked the last AI-HRI at the AAAI Fall Symposium Series, the opportunities that the venue offered have made this the beginning of a new community.

Seasonal frosting and defrosting on the surface of Mars is hypothesized to drive both climate processes and the formation and evolution of geomorphological features such as gullies. Past studies have focused on manually analyzing the behavior of the frost cycle in the northern mid-latitude region of Mars using high-resolution visible observations from orbit. Extending these studies globally requires automating the detection of frost using data science techniques such as convolutional neural networks. However, visible indications of frost presence can vary significantly depending on the geologic context on which the frost is superimposed. In this study, we (1) present a novel approach for spatially partitioning data to reduce biases in model performance estimation, (2) illustrate how geologic context affects automated frost detection, and (3) propose mitigations to observed biases in automated frost detection.

The Center for Disease Control estimates that over 37 million US adults suffer from chronic kidney disease (CKD), yet 9 out of 10 of these individuals are unaware of their condition due to the absence of symptoms in the early stages. It has a significant impact on patients' quality of life, particularly when it progresses to the need for dialysis. Early prediction of dialysis is crucial as it can significantly improve patient outcomes and assist healthcare providers in making timely and informed decisions. However, developing an effective machine learning (ML)-based Clinical Decision Support System (CDSS) for early dialysis prediction poses a key challenge due to the imbalanced nature of data. To address this challenge, this study evaluates various data augmentation techniques to understand their effectiveness on real-world datasets. We propose a new approach named Binary Gaussian Copula Synthesis (BGCS). BGCS is tailored for binary medical datasets and excels in generating synthetic minority data that mirrors the distribution of the original data. BGCS enhances early dialysis prediction by outperforming traditional methods in detecting dialysis patients. For the best ML model, Random Forest, BCGS achieved a 72% improvement, surpassing the state-of-the-art augmentation approaches. Also, we present a ML-based CDSS, designed to aid clinicians in making informed decisions. CDSS, which utilizes decision tree models, is developed to improve patient outcomes, identify critical variables, and thereby enable clinicians to make proactive decisions, and strategize treatment plans effectively for CKD patients who are more likely to require dialysis in the near future. Through comprehensive feature analysis and meticulous data preparation, we ensure that the CDSS's dialysis predictions are not only accurate but also actionable, providing a valuable tool in the management and treatment of CKD.