Identifying recurring patterns in high-dimensional time series data is an important problem in many scientific domains. A popular model to achieve this is convolutive nonnegative matrix factorization (CNMF), which extends classic nonnegative matrix factorization (NMF) to extract short-lived temporal motifs from a long time series. Prior work has typically fit this model by multiplicative parameter updates---an approach widely considered to be suboptimal for NMF, especially in large-scale data applications. Here, we describe how to extend two popular and computationally scalable NMF algorithms---Hierarchical Alternating Least Squares (HALS) and Alternatining Nonnegative Least Squares (ANLS)---for the CNMF model. Both methods demonstrate performance advantages over multiplicative updates on large-scale synthetic and real world data.

Modeling unknown systems from data is a precursor of system optimization and sequential decision making. In this paper, we focus on learning a Markov model from a single trajectory of states. Suppose that the transition model has a small rank despite of a large state space, meaning that the system admits a low-dimensional latent structure. We show that one can estimate the full transition model accurately using a trajectory of length that is proportional to the total number of states. We propose two maximum likelihood estimation methods: a convex approach with nuclear-norm regularization and a nonconvex approach with rank constraint. We show that both estimators enjoy optimal statistical rates in terms of the Kullback-Leiber divergence and the $\ell_2$ error. For computing the nonconvex estimator, we develop a novel DC (difference of convex function) programming algorithm that starts with the convex M-estimator and then successively refines the solution till convergence. Empirical experiments demonstrate consistent superiority of the nonconvex estimator over the convex one.

We consider the problem of learning a loss function which, when minimized over a training dataset, yields a model that approximately minimizes a validation error metric. Though learning an optimal loss function is NP-hard, we present an anytime algorithm that is asymptotically optimal in the worst case, and is provably efficient in an idealized "easy" case. Experimentally, we show that this algorithm can be used to tune loss function hyperparameters orders of magnitude faster than state-of-the-art alternatives. We also show that our algorithm can be used to learn novel and effective loss functions on-the-fly during training.

Hypertension is a major risk factor for stroke, cardiovascular disease, and end-stage renal disease, and its prevalence is expected to rise dramatically. Effective hypertension management is thus critical. A particular priority is decreasing the incidence of uncontrolled hypertension. Early identification of patients at risk for uncontrolled hypertension would allow targeted use of personalized, proactive treatments. We develop machine learning models (logistic regression and recurrent neural networks) to stratify patients with respect to the risk of exhibiting uncontrolled hypertension within the coming three-month period. We trained and tested models using EHR data from 14,407 and 3,009 patients, respectively. The best model achieved an AUROC of 0.719, outperforming the simple, competitive baseline of relying prediction based on the last BP measure alone (0.634). Perhaps surprisingly, recurrent neural networks did not outperform a simple logistic regression for this task, suggesting that linear models should be included as strong baselines for predictive tasks using EHR

We build upon probabilistic models for Boolean Matrix and Boolean Tensor factorisation that have recently been shown to solve these problems with unprecedented accuracy and to enable posterior inference to scale to Billions of observation. Here, we lift the restriction of a pre-specified number of latent dimensions by introducing an Indian Buffet Process prior over factor matrices. Not only does the full factor-conditional take a computationally convenient form due to the logical dependencies in the model, but also the posterior over the number of non-zero latent dimensions is remarkably simple. It amounts to counting the number false and true negative predictions, whereas positive predictions can be ignored. This constitutes a very transparent example of sampling-based posterior inference with an IBP prior and, importantly, lets us maintain extremely efficient inference. We discuss applications to simulated data, as well as to a real world data matrix with 6 Million entries.

One of the most surprising and exciting discoveries in supervising learning was the benefit of overparametrization (i.e. training a very large model) to improving the optimization landscape of a problem, with minimal effect on statistical performance (i.e. generalization). In contrast, unsupervised settings have been under-explored, despite the fact that it has been observed that overparameterization can be helpful as early as Dasgupta & Schulman (2007). In this paper, we perform an exhaustive study of different aspects of overparameterization in unsupervised learning via synthetic and semi-synthetic experiments. We discuss benefits to different metrics of success (held-out log-likelihood, recovering the parameters of the ground-truth model), sensitivity to variations of the training algorithm, and behavior as the amount of overparameterization increases. We find that, when learning using methods such as variational inference, larger models can significantly increase the number of ground truth latent variables recovered.

Analysis of 'big data' characterized by high-dimensionality such as word vectors and complex networks requires often their representation in a geometrical space by embedding. Recent developments in machine learning and network geometry have pointed out the hyperbolic space as a useful framework for the representation of this data derived by real complex physical systems. In the hyperbolic space, the radial coordinate of the nodes characterizes their hierarchy, whereas the angular distance between them represents their similarity. Several studies have highlighted the relationship between the angular coordinates of the nodes embedded in the hyperbolic space and the community metadata available. However, such analyses have been often limited to a visual or qualitative assessment. Here, we introduce the angular separation index (ASI), to quantitatively evaluate the separation of node network communities or data clusters over the angular coordinates of a geometrical space. ASI is particularly useful in the hyperbolic space - where it is extensively tested along this study - but can be used in general for any assessment of angular separation regardless of the adopted geometry. ASI is proposed together with an exact test statistic based on a uniformly random null model to assess the statistical significance of the separation. We show that ASI allows to discover two significant phenomena in network geometry. The first is that the increase of temperature in 2D hyperbolic network generative models, not only reduces the network clustering but also induces a 'dimensionality jump' of the network to dimensions higher than two. The second is that ASI can be successfully applied to detect the intrinsic dimensionality of network structures that grow in a hidden geometrical space.

Most automation in machine learning focuses on model selection and hyper parameter tuning, and many overlook the challenge of automatically defining predictive tasks. We still heavily rely on human experts to define prediction tasks, and generate labels by aggregating raw data. In this paper, we tackle the challenge of defining useful prediction problems on event-driven time-series data. We introduce MLFriend to address this challenge. MLFriend first generates all possible prediction tasks under a predefined space, then interacts with a data scientist to learn the context of the data and recommend good prediction tasks from all the tasks in the space. We evaluate our system on three different datasets and generate a total of 2885 prediction tasks and solve them. Out of these 722 were deemed useful by expert data scientists. We also show that an automatic prediction task discovery system is able to identify top 10 tasks that a user may like within a batch of 100 tasks.

Self-supervision provides effective representations for downstream tasks without requiring labels. However, existing approaches lag behind fully supervised training and are often not thought beneficial beyond obviating the need for annotations. We find that self-supervision can benefit robustness in a variety of ways, including robustness to adversarial examples, label corruption, and common input corruptions. Additionally, self-supervision greatly benefits out-of-distribution detection on difficult, near-distribution outliers, so much so that it exceeds the performance of fully supervised methods. These results demonstrate the promise of self-supervision for improving robustness and uncertainty estimation and establish these tasks as new axes of evaluation for future self-supervised learning research.

We present a consensus Monte Carlo algorithm that scales existing Bayesian nonparametric models for clustering and feature allocation to big data. The algorithm is valid for any prior on random subsets such as partitions and latent feature allocation, under essentially any sampling model. Motivated by three case studies, we focus on clustering induced by a Dirichlet process mixture sampling model, inference under an Indian buffet process prior with a binomial sampling model, and with a categorical sampling model. We assess the proposed algorithm with simulation studies and show results for inference with three datasets: an MNIST image dataset, a dataset of pancreatic cancer mutations, and a large set of electronic health records (EHR). Supplementary materials for this article are available online.