We study online transfer reinforcement learning (RL) in episodic Markov decision processes, where experience from related source tasks is available during learning on a target task. A fundamental difficulty is that task similarity is typically defined in terms of rewards or transitions, whereas online RL algorithms operate on Bellman regression targets. As a result, naively reusing source Bellman updates introduces systematic bias and invalidates regret guarantees. We identify one-step Bellman alignment as the correct abstraction for transfer in online RL and propose re-weighted targeting (RWT), an operator-level correction that retargets continuation values and compensates for transition mismatch via a change of measure. RWT reduces task mismatch to a fixed one-step correction and enables statistically sound reuse of source data. This alignment yields a two-stage RWT $Q$-learning framework that separates variance reduction from bias correction. Under RKHS function approximation, we establish regret bounds that scale with the complexity of the task shift rather than the target MDP. Empirical results in both tabular and neural network settings demonstrate consistent improvements over single-task learning and naïve pooling, highlighting Bellman alignment as a model-agnostic transfer principle for online RL.

Modern large language models (LLMs) such as GPT, Claude, and Gemini have transformed the way we learn, work, and communicate. Y et, their ability to produce highly human-like text raises serious concerns about misinformation and academic integrity, making it an urgent need for reliable algorithms to detect LLMgenerated content. In this paper, we start by presenting a geometric approach to demystify rewrite-based detection algorithms, revealing their underlying rationale and demonstrating their generalization ability. Building on this insight, we introduce a novel rewrite-based detection algorithm that adaptively learns the distance between the original and rewritten text. Theoretically, we demonstrate that employing an adaptively learned distance function is more effective for detection than using a fixed distance. Empirically, we conduct extensive experiments with over 100 settings, and find that our approach demonstrates superior performance over baseline algorithms in the majority of scenarios. In particular, it achieves relative improvements from 57.8% to 80.6% over the strongest baseline across different target LLMs (e.g., GPT, Claude, and Gemini). The past few years have witnessed the emergence and rapid development of large language models (LLMs) such as GPT (Hurst et al., 2024), DeepSeek (Liu et al., 2024), Claude (Anthropic, 2024), Gemini (Comanici et al., 2025), Grok (xAI, 2025) and Qwen (Y ang et al., 2025). Their impact is everywhere, from education, academia and software development to healthcare and everyday life (Arora & Arora, 2023; Chan & Hu, 2023; Hou et al., 2024). On one side of the coin, LLMs can support users with conversational question answering, help students learn more effectively, draft emails, write computer code, prepare presentation slides and more. On the other side, their ability to closely mimic human-written text also raises serious concerns, including the generation of biased or harmful content, the spread of misinformation in the news ecosystem, and the challenges related to authorship attribution and intellectual property (Dave et al., 2023; Fang et al., 2024; Messeri & Crockett, 2024; Mahajan et al., 2025; Laurito et al., 2025). Addressing these concerns requires effective algorithms to distinguish between human-written and LLM-generated text, which has become an active and popular research direction in recent literature (see Crothers et al., 2023; Wu et al., 2025, for reviews).

Distributionally robust optimisation (DRO) minimises the worst-case expected loss over an ambiguity set that can capture distributional shifts in out-of-sample environments. While Huber (linear-vacuous) contamination is a classical minimal-assumption model for an $\varepsilon$-fraction of arbitrary perturbations, including it in an ambiguity set can make the worst-case risk infinite and the DRO objective vacuous unless one imposes strong boundedness or support assumptions. We address these challenges by introducing bulk-calibrated credal ambiguity sets: we learn a high-mass bulk set from data while considering contamination inside the bulk and bounding the remaining tail contribution separately. This leads to a closed-form, finite $\mathrm{mean}+\sup$ robust objective and tractable linear or second-order cone programs for common losses and bulk geometries. Through this framework, we highlight and exploit the equivalence between the imprecise probability (IP) notion of upper expectation and the worst-case risk, demonstrating how IP credal sets translate into DRO objectives with interpretable tolerance levels. Experiments on heavy-tailed inventory control, geographically shifted house-price regression, and demographically shifted text classification show competitive robustness-accuracy trade-offs and efficient optimisation times, using Bayesian, frequentist, or empirical reference distributions.

We study privacy amplification for differentially private model training with matrix factorization under random allocation (also known as the balls-in-bins model). Recent work by Choquette-Choo et al. (2025) proposes a sampling-based Monte Carlo approach to compute amplification parameters in this setting. However, their guarantees either only hold with some high probability or require random abstention by the mechanism. Furthermore, the required number of samples for ensuring $(ε,δ)$-DP is inversely proportional to $δ$. In contrast, we develop sampling-free bounds based on Rényi divergence and conditional composition. The former is facilitated by a dynamic programming formulation to efficiently compute the bounds. The latter complements it by offering stronger privacy guarantees for small $ε$, where Rényi divergence bounds inherently lead to an over-approximation. Our framework applies to arbitrary banded and non-banded matrices. Through numerical comparisons, we demonstrate the efficacy of our approach across a broad range of matrix mechanisms used in research and practice.

Advances in data collection are producing growing volumes of temporal count observations, making adapted modeling increasingly necessary. In this work, we introduce a generative framework for independent component analysis of temporal count data, combining regime-adaptive dynamics with Poisson log-normal emissions. The model identifies disentangled components with regime-dependent contributions, enabling representation learning and perturbations analysis. Notably, we establish the identifiability of the model, supporting principled interpretation. To learn the parameters, we propose an efficient amortized variational inference procedure. Experiments on simulated data evaluate recovery of the mixing function and latent sources across diverse settings, while an in vivo longitudinal gut microbiome study reveals microbial co-variation patterns and regime shifts consistent with clinical perturbations.

The achievement of the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is dependent upon strategic resource distribution. We propose a causal discovery framework using Panel Vector Autoregression, along with both country-specific fixed effects and PCMCI+ conditional independence testing on 168 countries (2000-2025) to develop the first complete causal architecture of SDG dependencies. Utilizing 8 strategically chosen SDGs, we identify a distributed causal network (i.e., no single 'hub' SDG), with 10 statistically significant Granger-causal relationships identified as 11 unique direct effects. Education to Inequality is identified as the most statistically significant direct relationship (r = -0.599; p < 0.05), while effect magnitude significantly varies depending on income levels (e.g., high-income: r = -0.65; lower-middle-income: r = -0.06; non-significant). We also reject the idea that there exists a single 'keystone' SDG. Additionally, we offer a proposed tiered priority framework for the SDGs namely, identifying upstream drivers (Education, Growth), enabling goals (Institutions, Energy), and downstream outcomes (Poverty, Health). Therefore, we conclude that effective SDG acceleration can be accomplished through coordinated multi-dimensional intervention(s), and that single-goal sequential strategies are insufficient.

We study sampling from posterior distributions in Bayesian linear inverse problems where $A$, the parameters to observables operator, is computationally expensive. In many applications, $A$ can be factored in a manner that facilitates the construction of a cost-effective approximation $\tilde{A}$. In this framework, we introduce Latent-IMH, a sampling method based on the Metropolis-Hastings independence (IMH) sampler. Latent-IMH first generates intermediate latent variables using the approximate $\tilde{A}$, and then refines them using the exact $A$. Its primary benefit is that it shifts the computational cost to an offline phase. We theoretically analyze the performance of Latent-IMH using KL divergence and mixing time bounds. Using numerical experiments on several model problems, we show that, under reasonable assumptions, it outperforms state-of-the-art methods such as the No-U-Turn sampler (NUTS) in computational efficiency. In some cases, Latent-IMH can be orders of magnitude faster than existing schemes.

Learning a stationary diffusion amounts to estimating the parameters of a stochastic differential equation whose stationary distribution matches a target distribution. We build on the recently introduced kernel deviation from stationarity (KDS), which enforces stationarity by evaluating expectations of the diffusion's generator in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space. Leveraging the connection between KDS and Stein discrepancies, we introduce the Stein-type KDS (SKDS) as an alternative formulation. We prove that a vanishing SKDS guarantees alignment of the learned diffusion's stationary distribution with the target. Furthermore, under broad parametrizations, SKDS is convex with an empirical version that is $ε$-quasiconvex with high probability. Empirically, learning with SKDS attains comparable accuracy to KDS while substantially reducing computational cost and yields improvements over the majority of competitive baselines.

We introduce a novel machine learning method called the Penalized Profile Support Vector Machine based on the Gabriel edited set for the computation of the probability of failure for a complex system as determined by a threshold condition on a computer model of system behavior. The method is designed to minimize the number of evaluations of the computer model while preserving the geometry of the decision boundary that determines the probability. It employs an adaptive sampling strategy designed to strategically allocate points near the boundary determining failure and builds a locally linear surrogate boundary that remains consistent with its geometry by strategic clustering of training points. We prove two convergence results and we compare the performance of the method against a number of state of the art classification methods on four test problems. We also apply the method to determine the probability of survival using the Lotka--Volterra model for competing species.

Adam has been at the core of large-scale training for almost a decade, yet a simple empirical fact remains unaccounted for: both validation scores and the qualitative behaviour of the training runs improve when the momentum parameters satisfy $β_{1}=β_{2}$. Some recent studies have reported this pattern, but there is still no explanation for why this choice helps. We show that this choice is closely tied to a structural property that we refer to as \textit{gradient scale invariance}. We formalize this notion and prove that Adam becomes gradient scale invariant of first order if and only if $β_{1}=β_{2}$. This perspective places the balanced regime of Adam in direct alignment with the design principles underlying several recent optimizers that explicitly enforce scale-robust updates. The theory is supported by experiments across vision and language tasks, and across different architectural families, in which rescaling the gradient has a markedly smoother effect on the update when $β_{1}=β_{2}$. Overall, our results offer a coherent explanation for an open question in the behavior of Adam and provide a simple principle that helps guide the design of future optimizers.