This paper investigates the forecasting performance of COMEX copper futures realized volatility across various high-frequency intervals using both econometric volatility models and deep learning recurrent neural network models. The econometric models considered are GARCH and HAR, while the deep learning models include RNN (Recurrent Neural Network), LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory), and GRU (Gated Recurrent Unit). In forecasting daily realized volatility for COMEX copper futures with a rolling window approach, the econometric models, particularly HAR, outperform recurrent neural networks overall, with HAR achieving the lowest QLIKE loss function value. However, when the data is replaced with hourly high-frequency realized volatility, the deep learning models outperform the GARCH model, and HAR attains a comparable QLIKE loss function value. Despite the black-box nature of machine learning models, the deep learning models demonstrate superior forecasting performance, surpassing the fixed QLIKE value of HAR in the experiment. Moreover, as the forecast horizon extends for daily realized volatility, deep learning models gradually close the performance gap with the GARCH model in certain loss function metrics. Nonetheless, HAR remains the most effective model overall for daily realized volatility forecasting in copper futures.

Large language models (LLMs) have shown considerable success in a range of domain-specific tasks, especially after fine-tuning. However, fine-tuning with real-world data usually leads to privacy risks, particularly when the fine-tuning samples exist in the pre-training data. To avoid the shortcomings of real data, developers often employ methods to automatically generate synthetic data for fine-tuning, as data generated by traditional models are often far away from the real-world pertaining data. However, given the advanced capabilities of LLMs, the distinction between real data and LLM-generated data has become negligible, which may also lead to privacy risks like real data. In this paper, we present an empirical analysis of this underexplored issue by investigating a key question: "Does fine-tuning with LLM-generated data enhance privacy, or does it pose additional privacy risks?" Based on the structure of LLM's generated data, our research focuses on two primary approaches to fine-tuning with generated data: supervised fine-tuning with unstructured generated data and self-instruct tuning. The number of successful Personal Information Identifier (PII) extractions for Pythia after fine-tuning our generated data raised over $20\%$. Furthermore, the ROC-AUC score of membership inference attacks for Pythia-6.9b after self-instruct methods also achieves more than $40\%$ improvements on ROC-AUC score than base models. The results indicate the potential privacy risks in LLMs when fine-tuning with the generated data.

Formal verification is a promising method for producing reliable software, but the difficulty of manually writing verification proofs severely limits its utility in practice. Recent methods have automated some proof synthesis by guiding a search through the proof space using a theorem prover. Unfortunately, the theorem prover provides only the crudest estimate of progress, resulting in effectively undirected search. To address this problem, we create QEDCartographer, an automated proof-synthesis tool that combines supervised and reinforcement learning to more effectively explore the proof space. QEDCartographer incorporates the proofs' branching structure, enabling reward-free search and overcoming the sparse reward problem inherent to formal verification. We evaluate QEDCartographer using the CoqGym benchmark of 68.5K theorems from 124 open-source Coq projects. QEDCartographer fully automatically proves 21.4% of the test-set theorems. Previous search-based proof-synthesis tools Tok, Tac, ASTactic, Passport, and Proverbot9001, which rely only on supervised learning, prove 9.6%, 9.8%, 10.9%, 12.5%, and 19.8%, respectively. Diva, which combines 62 tools, proves 19.2%. Comparing to the most effective prior tool, Proverbot9001, QEDCartographer produces 34% shorter proofs 29% faster, on average over the theorems both tools prove. Together, QEDCartographer and non-learning-based CoqHammer prove 30.3% of the theorems, while CoqHammer alone proves 26.6%. Our work demonstrates that reinforcement learning is a fruitful research direction for improving proof-synthesis tools' search mechanisms.

As global tourism expands and artificial intelligence technology advances, intelligent travel planning services have emerged as a significant research focus. Within dynamic real-world travel scenarios with multi-dimensional constraints, services that support users in automatically creating practical and customized travel itineraries must address three key objectives: Rationality, Comprehensiveness, and Personalization. However, existing systems with rule-based combinations or LLM-based planning methods struggle to fully satisfy these criteria. To overcome the challenges, we introduce TravelAgent, a travel planning system powered by large language models (LLMs) designed to provide reasonable, comprehensive, and personalized travel itineraries grounded in dynamic scenarios. TravelAgent comprises four modules: Tool-usage, Recommendation, Planning, and Memory Module. We evaluate TravelAgent's performance with human and simulated users, demonstrating its overall effectiveness in three criteria and confirming the accuracy of personalized recommendations.

Extreme-mass-ratio inspiral (EMRI) signals pose significant challenges in gravitational wave (GW) astronomy owing to their low-frequency nature and highly complex waveforms, which occupy a high-dimensional parameter space with numerous variables. Given their extended inspiral timescales and low signal-to-noise ratios, EMRI signals warrant prolonged observation periods. Parameter estimation becomes particularly challenging due to non-local parameter degeneracies, arising from multiple local maxima, as well as flat regions and ridges inherent in the likelihood function. These factors lead to exceptionally high time complexity for parameter analysis while employing traditional matched filtering and random sampling methods. To address these challenges, the present study applies machine learning to Bayesian posterior estimation of EMRI signals, leveraging the recently developed flow matching technique based on ODE neural networks. Our approach demonstrates computational efficiency several orders of magnitude faster than the traditional Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods, while preserving the unbiasedness of parameter estimation. We show that machine learning technology has the potential to efficiently handle the vast parameter space, involving up to seventeen parameters, associated with EMRI signals. Furthermore, to our knowledge, this is the first instance of applying machine learning, specifically the Continuous Normalizing Flows (CNFs), to EMRI signal analysis. Our findings highlight the promising potential of machine learning in EMRI waveform analysis, offering new perspectives for the advancement of space-based GW detection and GW astronomy.

AI Safety is an emerging area of critical importance to the safe adoption and deployment of AI systems. With the rapid proliferation of AI and especially with the recent advancement of Generative AI (or GAI), the technology ecosystem behind the design, development, adoption, and deployment of AI systems has drastically changed, broadening the scope of AI Safety to address impacts on public safety and national security. In this paper, we propose a novel architectural framework for understanding and analyzing AI Safety; defining its characteristics from three perspectives: Trustworthy AI, Responsible AI, and Safe AI. We provide an extensive review of current research and advancements in AI safety from these perspectives, highlighting their key challenges and mitigation approaches. Through examples from state-of-the-art technologies, particularly Large Language Models (LLMs), we present innovative mechanism, methodologies, and techniques for designing and testing AI safety. Our goal is to promote advancement in AI safety research, and ultimately enhance people's trust in digital transformation.

Motivated by online retail, we consider the problem of selling one item (e.g., an ad slot) to two non-excludable buyers (say, a merchant and a brand). This problem captures, for example, situations where a merchant and a brand cooperatively bid in an auction to advertise a product, and both benefit from the ad being shown. A mechanism collects bids from the two and decides whether to allocate and which payments the two parties should make. This gives rise to intricate incentive compatibility constraints, e.g., on how to split payments between the two parties. We approach the problem of finding a revenue-maximizing incentive-compatible mechanism from an online learning perspective; this poses significant technical challenges. First, the action space (the class of all possible mechanisms) is huge; second, the function that maps mechanisms to revenue is highly irregular, ruling out standard discretization-based approaches. In the stochastic setting, we design an efficient learning algorithm achieving a regret bound of $O(T^{3/4})$. Our approach is based on an adaptive discretization scheme of the space of mechanisms, as any non-adaptive discretization fails to achieve sublinear regret. In the adversarial setting, we exploit the non-Lipschitzness of the problem to prove a strong negative result, namely that no learning algorithm can achieve more than half of the revenue of the best fixed mechanism in hindsight. We then consider the $\sigma$-smooth adversary; we construct an efficient learning algorithm that achieves a regret bound of $O(T^{2/3})$ and builds on a succinct encoding of exponentially many experts. Finally, we prove that no learning algorithm can achieve less than $\Omega(\sqrt T)$ regret in both the stochastic and the smooth setting, thus narrowing the range where the minimax regret rates for these two problems lie.

Current research in semantic bird's-eye view segmentation for autonomous driving focuses solely on optimizing neural network models using a single dataset, typically nuScenes. This practice leads to the development of highly specialized models that may fail when faced with different environments or sensor setups, a problem known as domain shift. In this paper, we conduct a comprehensive cross-dataset evaluation of state-of-the-art BEV segmentation models to assess their performance across different training and testing datasets and setups, as well as different semantic categories. We investigate the influence of different sensors, such as cameras and LiDAR, on the models' ability to generalize to diverse conditions and scenarios. Additionally, we conduct multi-dataset training experiments that improve models' BEV segmentation performance compared to single-dataset training. Our work addresses the gap in evaluating BEV segmentation models under cross-dataset validation. And our findings underscore the importance of enhancing model generalizability and adaptability to ensure more robust and reliable BEV segmentation approaches for autonomous driving applications. The code for this paper available at https://github.com/manueldiaz96/beval .

To make sense of massive data, we often first fit simplified models and then interpret the parameters; for example, we cluster the text embeddings and then interpret the mean parameters of each cluster. However, these parameters are often highdimensional and hard to interpret. To make model parameters directly interpretable, we introduce a family of statistical models--including clustering, time series, and classification models--parameterized by natural language predicates. For example, a cluster of text about COVID could be parameterized by the predicate "discusses COVID". To learn these statistical models effectively, we develop a model-agnostic algorithm that optimizes continuous relaxations of predicate parameters with gradient descent and discretizes them by prompting language models (LMs). Finally, we apply our framework to a wide range of problems: taxonomizing user chat dialogues, characterizing how they evolve across time, finding categories where one language model is better than the other, clustering math problems based on subareas, and explaining visual features in memorable images. Our framework is highly versatile, applicable to both textual and visual domains, can be easily steered to focus on specific properties (e.g.

In pursuit of a more sustainable and cost-efficient last mile, parcel lockers have gained a firm foothold in the parcel delivery landscape. To fully exploit their potential and simultaneously ensure customer satisfaction, successful management of the locker's limited capacity is crucial. This is challenging as future delivery requests and pickup times are stochastic from the provider's perspective. In response, we propose to dynamically control whether the locker is presented as an available delivery option to each incoming customer with the goal of maximizing the number of served requests weighted by their priority. Additionally, we take different compartment sizes into account, which entails a second type of decision as parcels scheduled for delivery must be allocated. We formalize the problem as an infinite-horizon sequential decision problem and find that exact methods are intractable due to the curses of dimensionality. In light of this, we develop a solution framework that orchestrates multiple algorithmic techniques rooted in Sequential Decision Analytics and Reinforcement Learning, namely cost function approximation and an offline trained parametric value function approximation together with a truncated online rollout. Our innovative approach to combine these techniques enables us to address the strong interrelations between the two decision types. As a general methodological contribution, we enhance the training of our value function approximation with a modified version of experience replay that enforces structure in the value function. Our computational study shows that our method outperforms a myopic benchmark by 13.7% and an industry-inspired policy by 12.6%.