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Strategizing Equitable Transit Evacuations: A Data-Driven Reinforcement Learning Approach

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

As natural disasters become increasingly frequent, the need for efficient and equitable evacuation planning has become more critical. This paper proposes a data-driven, reinforcement learning-based framework to optimize bus-based evacuations with an emphasis on improving both efficiency and equity. We model the evacuation problem as a Markov Decision Process solved by reinforcement learning, using real-time transit data from General Transit Feed Specification and transportation networks extracted from OpenStreetMap. The reinforcement learning agent dynamically reroutes buses from their scheduled location to minimize total passengers' evacuation time while prioritizing equity-priority communities. Simulations on the San Francisco Bay Area transportation network indicate that the proposed framework achieves significant improvements in both evacuation efficiency and equitable service distribution compared to traditional rule-based and random strategies. These results highlight the potential of reinforcement learning to enhance system performance and urban resilience during emergency evacuations, offering a scalable solution for real-world applications in intelligent transportation systems.


Diffusion Auto-regressive Transformer for Effective Self-supervised Time Series Forecasting

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Self-supervised learning has become a popular and effective approach for enhancing time series forecasting, enabling models to learn universal representations from unlabeled data. However, effectively capturing both the global sequence dependence and local detail features within time series data remains challenging. To address this, we propose a novel generative self-supervised method called TimeDART, denoting Diffusion Auto-regressive Transformer for Time series forecasting. In TimeDART, we treat time series patches as basic modeling units. Specifically, we employ an self-attention based Transformer encoder to model the dependencies of inter-patches. Additionally, we introduce diffusion and denoising mechanisms to capture the detail locality features of intra-patch. Notably, we design a cross-attention-based denoising decoder that allows for adjustable optimization difficulty in the self-supervised task, facilitating more effective self-supervised pre-training. Furthermore, the entire model is optimized in an auto-regressive manner to obtain transferable representations. Extensive experiments demonstrate that TimeDART achieves state-of-the-art fine-tuning performance compared to the most advanced competitive methods in forecasting tasks. Time series forecasting (Harvey, 1990; Hamilton, 2020; Box et al., 2015; Cheng et al., 2024b) is crucial in a wide array of domains, including finance (Black & Scholes, 1973), healthcare (Cheng et al., 2024c), energy management (Zhou et al., 2024). Accurate predictions of future data points could enable better decision-making, resource allocation, and risk management, ultimately leading to significant operational improvements and strategic advantages. Among the various methods developed for time series forecasting (Miller et al., 2024), deep neural networks (Ding et al., 2024; Jin et al., 2023; Cao et al., 2023; Cheng et al., 2024b) have emerged as a popular and effective solution paradigm. To further enhance the performance of time series forecasting, self-supervised learning has become an increasingly popular research paradigm (Nie et al., 2022).


The GPT Era Is Already Ending

The Atlantic - Technology

This week, OpenAI launched what its chief executive, Sam Altman, called "the smartest model in the world"--a generative-AI program whose capabilities are supposedly far greater, and more closely approximate how humans think, than those of any such software preceding it. The start-up has been building toward this moment since September 12, a day that, in OpenAI's telling, set the world on a new path toward superintelligence. That was when the company previewed early versions of a series of AI models, known as o1, constructed with novel methods that the start-up believes will propel its programs to unseen heights. Mark Chen, then OpenAI's vice president of research, told me a few days later that o1 is fundamentally different from the standard ChatGPT because it can "reason," a hallmark of human intelligence. Shortly thereafter, Altman pronounced "the dawn of the Intelligence Age," in which AI helps humankind fix the climate and colonize space. As of yesterday afternoon, the start-up has released the first complete version of o1, with fully fledged reasoning powers, to the public.


Sparse autoencoders reveal selective remapping of visual concepts during adaptation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Adapting foundation models for specific purposes has become a standard approach to build machine learning systems for downstream applications. Yet, it is an open question which mechanisms take place during adaptation. Here we develop a new Sparse Autoencoder (SAE) for the CLIP vision transformer, named PatchSAE, to extract interpretable concepts at granular levels (e.g. shape, color, or semantics of an object) and their patch-wise spatial attributions. We explore how these concepts influence the model output in downstream image classification tasks and investigate how recent state-of-the-art prompt-based adaptation techniques change the association of model inputs to these concepts. While activations of concepts slightly change between adapted and non-adapted models, we find that the majority of gains on common adaptation tasks can be explained with the existing concepts already present in the non-adapted foundation model. This work provides a concrete framework to train and use SAEs for Vision Transformers and provides insights into explaining adaptation mechanisms.


Dirac-Equation Signal Processing: Physics Boosts Topological Machine Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Topological signals are variables or features associated with both nodes and edges of a network. Recently, in the context of Topological Machine Learning, great attention has been devoted to signal processing of such topological signals. Most of the previous topological signal processing algorithms treat node and edge signals separately and work under the hypothesis that the true signal is smooth and/or well approximated by a harmonic eigenvector of the Hodge-Laplacian, which may be violated in practice. Here we propose Dirac-equation signal processing, a framework for efficiently reconstructing true signals on nodes and edges, also if they are not smooth or harmonic, by processing them jointly. The proposed physics-inspired algorithm is based on the spectral properties of the topological Dirac operator. It leverages the mathematical structure of the topological Dirac equation to boost the performance of the signal processing algorithm. We discuss how the relativistic dispersion relation obeyed by the topological Dirac equation can be used to assess the quality of the signal reconstruction. Finally, we demonstrate the improved performance of the algorithm with respect to previous algorithms. Specifically, we show that Dirac-equation signal processing can also be used efficiently if the true signal is a non-trivial linear combination of more than one eigenstate of the Dirac equation, as it generally occurs for real signals.


Tech wars: Why has China banned exports of rare minerals to US?

Al Jazeera

China has banned the export of rare but critical earth minerals used in the manufacture of important semiconductors to the United States in the latest move in an ongoing tech war between the two superpowers. Beijing's announcement on Tuesday came just one day after the US ramped up restrictions on the export of advanced chips to China, which affects the country's ability to develop advanced weapons systems and artificial intelligence. So why is a "tech war" brewing between China and the US, and why does it matter? For months, the two countries have been involved in tit-for-tat export restrictions. The US hopes to cripple China's military and artificial intelligence (AI) advances as well as hamper its ambitions to become a global leader in clean energy and other technologies.


A Hybrid Deep-Learning Model for El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation in the Low-Data Regime

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

While deep-learning models have demonstrated skillful El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasts up to one year in advance, they are predominantly trained on climate model simulations that provide thousands of years of training data at the expense of introducing climate model biases. Simpler Linear Inverse Models (LIMs) trained on the much shorter observational record also make skillful ENSO predictions but do not capture predictable nonlinear processes. This motivates a hybrid approach, combining the LIMs modest data needs with a deep-learning non-Markovian correction of the LIM. For O(100 yr) datasets, our resulting Hybrid model is more skillful than the LIM while also exceeding the skill of a full deep-learning model. Additionally, while the most predictable ENSO events are still identified in advance by the LIM, they are better predicted by the Hybrid model, especially in the western tropical Pacific for leads beyond about 9 months, by capturing the subsequent asymmetric (warm versus cold phases) evolution of ENSO.


WxC-Bench: A Novel Dataset for Weather and Climate Downstream Tasks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

High-quality machine learning (ML)-ready datasets play a foundational role in developing new artificial intelligence (AI) models or fine-tuning existing models for scientific applications such as weather and climate analysis. Unfortunately, despite the growing development of new deep learning models for weather and climate, there is a scarcity of curated, pre-processed machine learning (ML)-ready datasets. Curating such high-quality datasets for developing new models is challenging particularly because the modality of the input data varies significantly for different downstream tasks addressing different atmospheric scales (spatial and temporal). Here we introduce WxC-Bench (Weather and Climate Bench), a multi-modal dataset designed to support the development of generalizable AI models for downstream use-cases in weather and climate research. WxC-Bench is designed as a dataset of datasets for developing ML-models for a complex weather and climate system, addressing selected downstream tasks as machine learning phenomenon. WxC-Bench encompasses several atmospheric processes from meso-$\beta$ (20 - 200 km) scale to synoptic scales (2500 km), such as aviation turbulence, hurricane intensity and track monitoring, weather analog search, gravity wave parameterization, and natural language report generation. We provide a comprehensive description of the dataset and also present a technical validation for baseline analysis. The dataset and code to prepare the ML-ready data have been made publicly available on Hugging Face -- https://huggingface.co/datasets/nasa-impact/WxC-Bench


Higher Order Transformers: Efficient Attention Mechanism for Tensor Structured Data

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Transformers are now ubiquitous for sequence modeling tasks, but their extension to multi-dimensional data remains a challenge due to the quadratic cost of the attention mechanism. In this paper, we propose Higher-Order Transformers (HOT), a novel architecture designed to efficiently process data with more than two axes, i.e. higher-order tensors. To address the computational challenges associated with high-order tensor attention, we introduce a novel Kronecker factorized attention mechanism that reduces the attention cost to quadratic in each axis' dimension, rather than quadratic in the total size of the input tensor. To further enhance efficiency, HOT leverages kernelized attention, reducing the complexity to linear. This strategy maintains the model's expressiveness while enabling scalable attention computation. We validate the effectiveness of HOT on two high-dimensional tasks, including multivariate time series forecasting, and 3D medical image classification. Experimental results demonstrate that HOT achieves competitive performance while significantly improving computational efficiency, showcasing its potential for tackling a wide range of complex, multi-dimensional data.


Salient Information Prompting to Steer Content in Prompt-based Abstractive Summarization

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Large language models (LLMs) can generate fluent summaries across domains using prompting techniques, reducing the need to train models for summarization applications. However, crafting effective prompts that guide LLMs to generate summaries with the appropriate level of detail and writing style remains a challenge. In this paper, we explore the use of salient information extracted from the source document to enhance summarization prompts. We show that adding keyphrases in prompts can improve ROUGE F1 and recall, making the generated summaries more similar to the reference and more complete. The number of keyphrases can control the precision-recall trade-off. Furthermore, our analysis reveals that incorporating phrase-level salient information is superior to word- or sentence-level. However, the impact on hallucination is not universally positive across LLMs. To conduct this analysis, we introduce Keyphrase Signal Extractor (SigExt), a lightweight model that can be finetuned to extract salient keyphrases. By using SigExt, we achieve consistent ROUGE improvements across datasets and open-weight and proprietary LLMs without any LLM customization. Our findings provide insights into leveraging salient information in building prompt-based summarization systems. We release our code at \url{https://github.com/amazon-science/SigExt}