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MIRAI: Evaluating LLM Agents for Event Forecasting

Ye, Chenchen, Hu, Ziniu, Deng, Yihe, Huang, Zijie, Ma, Mingyu Derek, Zhu, Yanqiao, Wang, Wei

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Recent advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs) have empowered LLM agents to autonomously collect world information, over which to conduct reasoning to solve complex problems. Given this capability, increasing interests have been put into employing LLM agents for predicting international events, which can influence decision-making and shape policy development on an international scale. Despite such a growing interest, there is a lack of a rigorous benchmark of LLM agents' forecasting capability and reliability. To address this gap, we introduce MIRAI, a novel benchmark designed to systematically evaluate LLM agents as temporal forecasters in the context of international events. Our benchmark features an agentic environment with tools for accessing an extensive database of historical, structured events and textual news articles. We refine the GDELT event database with careful cleaning and parsing to curate a series of relational prediction tasks with varying forecasting horizons, assessing LLM agents' abilities from short-term to long-term forecasting. We further implement APIs to enable LLM agents to utilize different tools via a code-based interface. In summary, MIRAI comprehensively evaluates the agents' capabilities in three dimensions: 1) autonomously source and integrate critical information from large global databases; 2) write codes using domain-specific APIs and libraries for tool-use; and 3) jointly reason over historical knowledge from diverse formats and time to accurately predict future events. Through comprehensive benchmarking, we aim to establish a reliable framework for assessing the capabilities of LLM agents in forecasting international events, thereby contributing to the development of more accurate and trustworthy models for international relation analysis.


Curating Grounded Synthetic Data with Global Perspectives for Equitable AI

Törnquist, Elin, Caulk, Robert Alexander

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The development of robust AI models relies heavily on the quality and variety of training data available. In fields where data scarcity is prevalent, synthetic data generation offers a vital solution. In this paper, we introduce a novel approach to creating synthetic datasets, grounded in real-world diversity and enriched through strategic diversification. We synthesize data using a comprehensive collection of news articles spanning 12 languages and originating from 125 countries, to ensure a breadth of linguistic and cultural representations. Through enforced topic diversification, translation, and summarization, the resulting dataset accurately mirrors real-world complexities and addresses the issue of underrepresentation in traditional datasets. This methodology, applied initially to Named Entity Recognition (NER), serves as a model for numerous AI disciplines where data diversification is critical for generalizability. Preliminary results demonstrate substantial improvements in performance on traditional NER benchmarks, by up to 7.3%, highlighting the effectiveness of our synthetic data in mimicking the rich, varied nuances of global data sources. This paper outlines the strategies employed for synthesizing diverse datasets and provides such a curated dataset for NER.


A lexicon obtained and validated by a data-driven approach for organic residues valorization in emerging and developing countries

Rakotomalala, Christiane, Paillat, Jean-Marie, Feder, Frédéric, Avadí, Angel, Thuriès, Laurent, Vermeire, Marie-Liesse, Médoc, Jean-Michel, Wassenaar, Tom, Hottelart, Caroline, Kieffer, Lilou, Ndjie, Elisa, Picart, Mathieu, Tchamgoue, Jorel, Tulle, Alvin, Valade, Laurine, Boyer, Annie, Duchamp, Marie-Christine, Roche, Mathieu

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The text mining method presented in this paper was used for annotation of terms related to biological transformation and valorization of organic residues in agriculture in low and middle-income country. Specialized lexicon was obtained through different steps: corpus and extraction of terms, annotation of extracted terms, selection of relevant terms.


Laissez-Faire Harms: Algorithmic Biases in Generative Language Models

Shieh, Evan, Vassel, Faye-Marie, Sugimoto, Cassidy, Monroe-White, Thema

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The rapid deployment of generative language models (LMs) has raised concerns about social biases affecting the well-being of diverse consumers. The extant literature on generative LMs has primarily examined bias via explicit identity prompting. However, prior research on bias in earlier language-based technology platforms, including search engines, has shown that discrimination can occur even when identity terms are not specified explicitly. Studies of bias in LM responses to open-ended prompts (where identity classifications are left unspecified) are lacking and have not yet been grounded in end-consumer harms. Here, we advance studies of generative LM bias by considering a broader set of natural use cases via open-ended prompting. In this "laissez-faire" setting, we find that synthetically generated texts from five of the most pervasive LMs (ChatGPT3.5, ChatGPT4, Claude2.0, Llama2, and PaLM2) perpetuate harms of omission, subordination, and stereotyping for minoritized individuals with intersectional race, gender, and/or sexual orientation identities (AI/AN, Asian, Black, Latine, MENA, NH/PI, Female, Non-binary, Queer). We find widespread evidence of bias to an extent that such individuals are hundreds to thousands of times more likely to encounter LM-generated outputs that portray their identities in a subordinated manner compared to representative or empowering portrayals. We also document a prevalence of stereotypes (e.g. perpetual foreigner) in LM-generated outputs that are known to trigger psychological harms that disproportionately affect minoritized individuals. These include stereotype threat, which leads to impaired cognitive performance and increased negative self-perception. Our findings highlight the urgent need to protect consumers from discriminatory harms caused by language models and invest in critical AI education programs tailored towards empowering diverse consumers.


GlotLID: Language Identification for Low-Resource Languages

Kargaran, Amir Hossein, Imani, Ayyoob, Yvon, François, Schütze, Hinrich

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Several recent papers have published good solutions for language identification (LID) for about 300 high-resource and medium-resource languages. However, there is no LID available that (i) covers a wide range of low-resource languages, (ii) is rigorously evaluated and reliable and (iii) efficient and easy to use. Here, we publish GlotLID-M, an LID model that satisfies the desiderata of wide coverage, reliability and efficiency. It identifies 1665 languages, a large increase in coverage compared to prior work. In our experiments, GlotLID-M outperforms four baselines (CLD3, FT176, OpenLID and NLLB) when balancing F1 and false positive rate (FPR). We analyze the unique challenges that low-resource LID poses: incorrect corpus metadata, leakage from high-resource languages, difficulty separating closely related languages, handling of macrolanguage vs varieties and in general noisy data. We hope that integrating GlotLID-M into dataset creation pipelines will improve quality and enhance accessibility of NLP technology for low-resource languages and cultures. GlotLID-M model, code, and list of data sources are available: https://github.com/cisnlp/GlotLID.


Integrating Linguistic Theory and Neural Language Models

Li, Bai

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Transformer-based language models have recently achieved remarkable results in many natural language tasks. However, performance on leaderboards is generally achieved by leveraging massive amounts of training data, and rarely by encoding explicit linguistic knowledge into neural models. This has led many to question the relevance of linguistics for modern natural language processing. In this dissertation, I present several case studies to illustrate how theoretical linguistics and neural language models are still relevant to each other. First, language models are useful to linguists by providing an objective tool to measure semantic distance, which is difficult to do using traditional methods. On the other hand, linguistic theory contributes to language modelling research by providing frameworks and sources of data to probe our language models for specific aspects of language understanding. This thesis contributes three studies that explore different aspects of the syntax-semantics interface in language models. In the first part of my thesis, I apply language models to the problem of word class flexibility. Using mBERT as a source of semantic distance measurements, I present evidence in favour of analyzing word class flexibility as a directional process. In the second part of my thesis, I propose a method to measure surprisal at intermediate layers of language models. My experiments show that sentences containing morphosyntactic anomalies trigger surprisals earlier in language models than semantic and commonsense anomalies. Finally, in the third part of my thesis, I adapt several psycholinguistic studies to show that language models contain knowledge of argument structure constructions. In summary, my thesis develops new connections between natural language processing, linguistic theory, and psycholinguistics to provide fresh perspectives for the interpretation of language models.



AI-Powered Body Scanners to Detect Cancerous Moles on Skin

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A small island in the South Pacific Ocean recently shot to fame by becoming the first territory on our planet to derive its energy needs from the Sun. Covering a small area of 10 square kilometers, Tokelau is a part of New Zealand and lies to the North of Samoan islands . Funded by the government of New Zealand, Tokelau spent about $7 million to put in place three solar grids that will now enable its 1500 residents to harness and utilize solar energy for their daily needs. Why spend $7 million for a power plant in the middle of nowhere you might ask! While the small island generates a small sum of $ 500,000 every year by selling agricultural produce, it spends over $2.8 million, most of which is spent of food and fuel.


Ontology Reasoning with Deep Neural Networks

Hohenecker, Patrick (University of Oxford) | Lukasiewicz, Thomas (University of Oxford)

Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research

The ability to conduct logical reasoning is a fundamental aspect of intelligent human behavior, and thus an important problem along the way to human-level artificial intelligence. Traditionally, logic-based symbolic methods from the field of knowledge representation and reasoning have been used to equip agents with capabilities that resemble human logical reasoning qualities. More recently, however, there has been an increasing interest in using machine learning rather than logic-based symbolic formalisms to tackle these tasks. In this paper, we employ state-of-the-art methods for training deep neural networks to devise a novel model that is able to learn how to effectively perform logical reasoning in the form of basic ontology reasoning. This is an important and at the same time very natural logical reasoning task, which is why the presented approach is applicable to a plethora of important real-world problems. We present the outcomes of several experiments, which show that our model is able to learn to perform highly accurate ontology reasoning on very large, diverse, and challenging benchmarks. Furthermore, it turned out that the suggested approach suffers much less from different obstacles that prohibit logic-based symbolic reasoning, and, at the same time, is surprisingly plausible from a biological point of view.


Python Computer Vision Course

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Learn Computer Vision. Introduction course to Computer Vision with Python. Make Computer Vision Apps? Learn Computer Vision theory? Build a strong portfolio with Computer Vision & Image Processing Projects? Looking to add Computer Vision algorithms in your current software project ? Whatever be your motivation to learn Computer Vision, I can assure you that you’ve come to the right course. You get. Complete course with 1 hour of video tutorials, Source code for all examples in the course. What you'll learn. Use basic Computer Vision techniques. Do image processing. Build: Image Similarity app, Face Detection app and Object Detection app! Master Computer Vision! .