Full-body avatar presence is crucial for immersive social and environmental interactions in digital reality. However, current devices only provide three six degrees of freedom (DOF) poses from the headset and two controllers (i.e. three-point trackers). Because it is a highly under-constrained problem, inferring full-body pose from these inputs is challenging, especially when supporting the full range of body proportions and use cases represented by the general population. In this paper, we propose a deep learning framework, DivaTrack, which outperforms existing methods when applied to diverse body sizes and activities. We augment the sparse three-point inputs with linear accelerations from Inertial Measurement Units (IMU) to improve foot contact prediction. We then condition the otherwise ambiguous lower-body pose with the predictions of foot contact and upper-body pose in a two-stage model. We further stabilize the inferred full-body pose in a wide range of configurations by learning to blend predictions that are computed in two reference frames, each of which is designed for different types of motions. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our design on a large dataset that captures 22 subjects performing challenging locomotion for three-point tracking, including lunges, hula-hooping, and sitting. As shown in a live demo using the Meta VR headset and Xsens IMUs, our method runs in real-time while accurately tracking a user's motion when they perform a diverse set of movements.

We investigate the problem of explainability in machine learning.To address this problem, Feature Attribution Methods (FAMs) measure the contribution of each feature through a perturbation test, where the difference in prediction is compared under different perturbations.However, such perturbation tests may not accurately distinguish the contributions of different features, when their change in prediction is the same after perturbation.In order to enhance the ability of FAMs to distinguish different features' contributions in this challenging setting, we propose to utilize the probability (PNS) that perturbing a feature is a necessary and sufficient cause for the prediction to change as a measure of feature importance.Our approach, Feature Attribution with Necessity and Sufficiency (FANS), computes the PNS via a perturbation test involving two stages (factual and interventional).In practice, to generate counterfactual samples, we use a resampling-based approach on the observed samples to approximate the required conditional distribution.Finally, we combine FANS and gradient-based optimization to extract the subset with the largest PNS.We demonstrate that FANS outperforms existing feature attribution methods on six benchmarks.

Score function estimation is the cornerstone of both training and sampling from diffusion generative models. Despite this fact, the most commonly used estimators are either biased neural network approximations or high variance Monte Carlo estimators based on the conditional score. We introduce a novel nearest neighbour score function estimator which utilizes multiple samples from the training set to dramatically decrease estimator variance. We leverage our low variance estimator in two compelling applications. Training consistency models with our estimator, we report a significant increase in both convergence speed and sample quality. In diffusion models, we show that our estimator can replace a learned network for probability-flow ODE integration, opening promising new avenues of future research.

Deep Neural Nets (DNNs) learn latent representations induced by their downstream task, objective function, and other parameters. The quality of the learned representations impacts the DNN's generalization ability and the coherence of the emerging latent space. The Information Bottleneck (IB) provides a hypothetically optimal framework for data modeling, yet it is often intractable. Recent efforts combined DNNs with the IB by applying VAE-inspired variational methods to approximate bounds on mutual information, resulting in improved robustness to adversarial attacks. This work introduces a new and tighter variational bound for the IB, improving performance of previous IB-inspired DNNs. These advancements strengthen the case for the IB and its variational approximations as a data modeling framework, and provide a simple method to significantly enhance the adversarial robustness of classifier DNNs.

A natural approach for reinforcement learning is to predict future rewards by unrolling a neural network world model, and to backpropagate through the resulting computational graph to learn a policy. However, this method often becomes impractical for long horizons since typical world models induce hard-to-optimize loss landscapes. Transformers are known to efficiently propagate gradients over long horizons: could they be the solution to this problem? Surprisingly, we show that commonly-used transformer world models produce circuitous gradient paths, which can be detrimental to long-range policy gradients. To tackle this challenge, we propose a class of world models called Actions World Models (AWMs), designed to provide more direct routes for gradient propagation. We integrate such AWMs into a policy gradient framework that underscores the relationship between network architectures and the policy gradient updates they inherently represent. We demonstrate that AWMs can generate optimization landscapes that are easier to navigate even when compared to those from the simulator itself. This property allows transformer AWMs to produce better policies than competitive baselines in realistic long-horizon tasks.

Uncertainty quantification for time series nowcasting and forecasting is crucial in many areas such as climate science, epidemiology, industrial engineering, and macroeconomics. Ideally, the forecaster would generate a prediction interval at each time period that is calibrated in the sense that the fraction of intervals covering the true outcomes is approximately equal to the target coverage level in the long run. Classical approaches for generating prediction intervals are mostly model-based Box and Jenkins [1976], Engle [1982a], Stock and Watson [2010], Brown [1964], Jorda [2005]. However, time series models are often mis-specified due to nonstationarity or changing environments. As a result, the model-based prediction intervals tend to be poorly calibrated (see for instance the gray curves in Figure 1). Moreover, many forecasters have upgraded their workflows by incorporating black-box machine learning algorithms [e.g. Taylor and Letham, 2018, Makridakis et al., 2018, Herzen et al., 2022], for which valid uncertainty quantification proves to be challenging.

In this unprecedented era of technology-driven transformation, it becomes more critical than ever that we aggressively invest in developing robust artificial intelligence (AI) for wargaming in support of decision-making. By advancing AI-enabled systems and pairing these with human judgment, we will be able to enhance all-domain awareness, improve the speed and quality of our decision cycles, offer recommendations for novel courses of action, and more rapidly counter our adversary's actions. It therefore becomes imperative that we accelerate the development of AI to help us better address the complexity of modern challenges and dilemmas that currently requires human intelligence and, if possible, attempt to surpass human intelligence--not to replace humans, but to augment and better inform human decision-making at machine speed. Although deep reinforcement learning continues to show promising results in intelligent agent behavior development for the long-horizon, complex tasks typically found in combat modeling and simulation, further research is needed to enable the scaling of AI to deal with these intricate and expansive state-spaces characteristic of wargaming for either concept development, education, or analysis. To help address this challenge, in our research, we are developing and implementing a hierarchical reinforcement learning framework that includes a multi-model approach and dimension-invariant observation abstractions.

Wasserstein Gradient Flow (WGF) describes the gradient dynamics of probability density within the Wasserstein space. WGF provides a promising approach for conducting optimization over the probability distributions. Numerically approximating the continuous WGF requires the time discretization method. The most well-known method for this is the JKO scheme. In this regard, previous WGF models employ the JKO scheme and parametrize transport map for each JKO step. However, this approach results in quadratic training complexity $O(K^2)$ with the number of JKO step $K$. This severely limits the scalability of WGF models. In this paper, we introduce a scalable WGF-based generative model, called Semi-dual JKO (S-JKO). Our model is based on the semi-dual form of the JKO step, derived from the equivalence between the JKO step and the Unbalanced Optimal Transport. Our approach reduces the training complexity to $O(K)$. We demonstrate that our model significantly outperforms existing WGF-based generative models, achieving FID scores of 2.62 on CIFAR-10 and 6.19 on CelebA-HQ-256, which are comparable to state-of-the-art image generative models.

In tasks aiming for long-term returns, planning becomes necessary. We study generative modeling for planning with datasets repurposed from offline reinforcement learning. Specifically, we identify temporal consistency in the absence of step-wise rewards as one key technical challenge. We introduce the Latent Plan Transformer (LPT), a novel model that leverages a latent space to connect a Transformer-based trajectory generator and the final return. LPT can be learned with maximum likelihood estimation on trajectory-return pairs. In learning, posterior sampling of the latent variable naturally gathers sub-trajectories to form a consistent abstraction despite the finite context. During test time, the latent variable is inferred from an expected return before policy execution, realizing the idea of planning as inference. It then guides the autoregressive policy throughout the episode, functioning as a plan. Our experiments demonstrate that LPT can discover improved decisions from suboptimal trajectories. It achieves competitive performance across several benchmarks, including Gym-Mujoco, Maze2D, and Connect Four, exhibiting capabilities of nuanced credit assignments, trajectory stitching, and adaptation to environmental contingencies. These results validate that latent variable inference can be a strong alternative to step-wise reward prompting.

Variational dimensionality reduction methods are known for their high accuracy, generative abilities, and robustness. We introduce a framework to unify many existing variational methods and design new ones. The framework is based on an interpretation of the multivariate information bottleneck, in which an encoder graph, specifying what information to compress, is traded-off against a decoder graph, specifying a generative model. Using this framework, we rederive existing dimensionality reduction methods including the deep variational information bottleneck and variational auto-encoders. The framework naturally introduces a trade-off parameter extending the deep variational CCA (DVCCA) family of algorithms to beta-DVCCA. We derive a new method, the deep variational symmetric informational bottleneck (DVSIB), which simultaneously compresses two variables to preserve information between their compressed representations. We implement these algorithms and evaluate their ability to produce shared low dimensional latent spaces on Noisy MNIST dataset. We show that algorithms that are better matched to the structure of the data (in our case, beta-DVCCA and DVSIB) produce better latent spaces as measured by classification accuracy, dimensionality of the latent variables, and sample efficiency. We believe that this framework can be used to unify other multi-view representation learning algorithms and to derive and implement novel problem-specific loss functions.