Symbolic regression with polynomial neural networks and polynomial neural ordinary differential equations (ODEs) are two recent and powerful approaches for equation recovery of many science and engineering problems. However, these methods provide point estimates for the model parameters and are currently unable to accommodate noisy data. We address this challenge by developing and validating the following Bayesian inference methods: the Laplace approximation, Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling methods, and variational inference. We have found the Laplace approximation to be the best method for this class of problems. Our work can be easily extended to the broader class of symbolic neural networks to which the polynomial neural network belongs.

Extreme weather events pose significant challenges, thereby demanding techniques for accurate analysis and precise forecasting to mitigate its impact. In recent years, deep learning techniques have emerged as a promising approach for weather forecasting and understanding the dynamics of extreme weather events. This review aims to provide a comprehensive overview of the state-of-the-art deep learning in the field. We explore the utilization of deep learning architectures, across various aspects of weather prediction such as thunderstorm, lightning, precipitation, drought, heatwave, cold waves and tropical cyclones. We highlight the potential of deep learning, such as its ability to capture complex patterns and non-linear relationships. Additionally, we discuss the limitations of current approaches and highlight future directions for advancements in the field of meteorology. The insights gained from this systematic review are crucial for the scientific community to make informed decisions and mitigate the impacts of extreme weather events.

With a number of marine populations in rapid decline, collecting and analyzing data about marine populations has become increasingly important to develop effective conservation policies for a wide range of marine animals, including whales. Modern computer vision algorithms allow us to detect whales in images in a wide range of domains, further speeding up and enhancing the monitoring process. However, these algorithms heavily rely on large training datasets, which are challenging and time-consuming to collect particularly in marine or aquatic environments. Recent advances in AI however have made it possible to synthetically create datasets for training machine learning algorithms, thus enabling new solutions that were not possible before. In this work, we present a solution - SeaDroneSim2 benchmark suite, which addresses this challenge by generating aerial, and satellite synthetic image datasets to improve the detection of whales and reduce the effort required for training data collection. We show that we can achieve a 15% performance boost on whale detection compared to using the real data alone for training, by augmenting a 10% real data. We open source both the code of the simulation platform SeaDroneSim2 and the dataset generated through it.

Making inference with spatial extremal dependence models can be computationally burdensome since they involve intractable and/or censored likelihoods. Building on recent advances in likelihood-free inference with neural Bayes estimators, that is, neural networks that approximate Bayes estimators, we develop highly efficient estimators for censored peaks-over-threshold models that encode censoring information in the neural network architecture. Our new method provides a paradigm shift that challenges traditional censored likelihood-based inference methods for spatial extremal dependence models. Our simulation studies highlight significant gains in both computational and statistical efficiency, relative to competing likelihood-based approaches, when applying our novel estimators to make inference with popular extremal dependence models, such as max-stable, $r$-Pareto, and random scale mixture process models. We also illustrate that it is possible to train a single neural Bayes estimator for a general censoring level, precluding the need to retrain the network when the censoring level is changed. We illustrate the efficacy of our estimators by making fast inference on hundreds-of-thousands of high-dimensional spatial extremal dependence models to assess extreme particulate matter 2.5 microns or less in diameter (PM2.5) concentration over the whole of Saudi Arabia.

Growing apprehensions surrounding public safety have captured the attention of numerous governments and security agencies across the globe. These entities are increasingly acknowledging the imperative need for reliable and secure crowd-monitoring systems to address these concerns. Effectively managing human gatherings necessitates proactive measures to prevent unforeseen events or complications, ensuring a safe and well-coordinated environment. The scarcity of research focusing on crowd monitoring systems and their security implications has given rise to a burgeoning area of investigation, exploring potential approaches to safeguard human congregations effectively. Crowd monitoring systems depend on a bifurcated approach, encompassing vision-based and non-vision-based technologies. An in-depth analysis of these two methodologies will be conducted in this research. The efficacy of these approaches is contingent upon the specific environment and temporal context in which they are deployed, as they each offer distinct advantages. This paper endeavors to present an in-depth analysis of the recent incorporation of artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms and models into automated systems, emphasizing their contemporary applications and effectiveness in various contexts.

Data scarcity has been the main factor that hinders the progress of event extraction. To overcome this issue, we propose a Self-Training with Feedback (STF) framework that leverages the large-scale unlabeled data and acquires feedback for each new event prediction from the unlabeled data by comparing it to the Abstract Meaning Representation (AMR) graph of the same sentence. Specifically, STF consists of (1) a base event extraction model trained on existing event annotations and then applied to large-scale unlabeled corpora to predict new event mentions as pseudo training samples, and (2) a novel scoring model that takes in each new predicted event trigger, an argument, its argument role, as well as their paths in the AMR graph to estimate a compatibility score indicating the correctness of the pseudo label. The compatibility scores further act as feedback to encourage or discourage the model learning on the pseudo labels during self-training. Experimental results on three benchmark datasets, including ACE05-E, ACE05-E+, and ERE, demonstrate the effectiveness of the STF framework on event extraction, especially event argument extraction, with significant performance gain over the base event extraction models and strong baselines. Our experimental analysis further shows that STF is a generic framework as it can be applied to improve most, if not all, event extraction models by leveraging large-scale unlabeled data, even when high-quality AMR graph annotations are not available.

Disaster response agencies have been shifting from a paradigm of climate forecasting towards one of anticipatory action: assessing not just what the climate will be, but how it will impact specific populations, thereby enabling proactive response and resource allocation. Machine learning models are becoming exceptionally powerful at climate forecasting, but methodological gaps remain in terms of facilitating anticipatory action. Here we provide an overview of anticipatory action, review relevant applications of machine learning, identify common challenges, and highlight areas where machine learning can uniquely contribute to advancing disaster response for populations most vulnerable to climate change.

Heatwaves and bushfires cause substantial impacts on society and ecosystems across the globe. Accurate information of heat extremes is needed to support the development of actionable mitigation and adaptation strategies. Regional climate models are commonly used to better understand the dynamics of these events. These models have very large input parameter sets, and the parameters within the physics schemes substantially influence the model's performance. However, parameter sensitivity analysis (SA) of regional models for heat extremes is largely unexplored. Here, we focus on the southeast Australian region, one of the global hotspots of heat extremes. In southeast Australia Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is the widely used regional model to simulate extreme weather events across the region. Hence in this study, we focus on the sensitivity of WRF model parameters to surface meteorological variables such as temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed during two extreme heat events over southeast Australia. Due to the presence of multiple parameters and their complex relationship with output variables, a machine learning (ML) surrogate-based global sensitivity analysis method is considered for the SA. The ML surrogate-based Sobol SA is used to identify the sensitivity of 24 adjustable parameters in seven different physics schemes of the WRF model. Results show that out of these 24, only three parameters, namely the scattering tuning parameter, multiplier of saturated soil water content, and profile shape exponent in the momentum diffusivity coefficient, are important for the considered meteorological variables. These SA results are consistent for the two different extreme heat events. Further, we investigated the physical significance of sensitive parameters. This study's results will help in further optimising WRF parameters to improve model simulation.

In this paper, we present a comprehensive analysis of extreme temperature patterns using emerging statistical machine learning techniques. Our research focuses on exploring and comparing the effectiveness of various statistical models for climate time series forecasting. The models considered include Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing, Multilayer Perceptrons, and Gaussian Processes. We apply these methods to climate time series data from five most populated U.S. cities, utilizing Python and Julia to demonstrate the role of statistical computing in understanding climate change and its impacts. Our findings highlight the differences between the statistical methods and identify Multilayer Perceptrons as the most effective approach. Additionally, we project extreme temperatures using this best-performing method, up to 2030, and examine whether the temperature changes are greater than zero, thereby testing a hypothesis.

The biggest Women's World Cup ever kicked off in Australia and New Zealand earlier this week with wins for both of the host nations. For the first time, the women's version of FIFA's tournament has 32 teams participating, following the format of the men's competition for the past 25 years. It comprises 64 matches across five time zones in nine cities, culminating with the final in Sydney on August 20. On Saturday, England kick off their campaign with a match against Haiti in Brisbane at 7:30pm local time (10:30am BST). MailOnline has taken a look at the innovations underpinning the player and fan experience this year, including AI-powered limb-tracking, a new video assistant referee procedure and a Web3 prediction game.