A non--linear dynamic system is called contracting if initial conditions are forgotten exponentially fast, so that all trajectories converge to a single trajectory.

We propose a Gaussian process (GP) framework for robust inference in which a GP prior on the mixing weights of a two-component noise model augments the standard process over latent function values. This approach is a generalization of the mixture likelihood used in traditional robust GP regression, and a specialization of the GP mixture models suggested by Tresp (2000) and Rasmussen and Ghahramani (2002). The value of this restriction is in its tractable expectation propagation updates, which allow for faster inference and model selection, and better convergence than the standard mixture. An additional benefit over the latter method lies in our ability to incorporate knowledge of the noise domain to influence predictions, and to recover with the predictive distribution information about the outlier distribution via the gating process. The model has asymptotic complexity equal to that of conventional robust methods, but yields more confident predictions on benchmark problems than classical heavy-tailed models and exhibits improved stability for data with clustered corruptions, for which they fail altogether. We show further how our approach can be used without adjustment for more smoothly heteroscedastic data, and suggest how it could be extended to more general noise models. We also address similarities with the work of Goldberg et al. (1998), and the more recent contributions of Tresp, and Rasmussen and Ghahramani.

We present an efficient generalization of the sparse pseudo-input Gaussian process (SPGP)model developed by Snelson and Ghahramani [1], applying it to binary classification problems.

Clustering is often formulated as a discrete optimization problem. The objective is to find, among all partitions of the data set, the best one according to some quality measure. However, in the statistical setting where we assume that the finite data set has been sampled from some underlying space, the goal is not to find the best partition of the given sample, but to approximate the true partition of the underlying space.We argue that the discrete optimization approach usually does not achieve this goal. As an alternative, we suggest the paradigm of "nearest neighbor clustering". Instead of selecting the best out of all partitions of the sample, it only considers partitions in some restricted function class. Using tools from statistical learning theory we prove that nearest neighbor clustering is statistically consistent. Moreover,its worst case complexity is polynomial by construction, and it can be implemented with small average case complexity using branch and bound.

Reward-modulated spike-timing-dependent plasticity (STDP) has recently emerged as a candidate for a learning rule that could explain how local learning rules at single synapses support behaviorally relevant adaptive changes in complex networksof spiking neurons. However the potential and limitations of this learning rule could so far only be tested through computer simulations. This article providestools for an analytic treatment of reward-modulated STDP, which allow us to predict under which conditions reward-modulated STDP will be able to achieve a desired learning effect. In particular, we can produce in this way a theoretical explanation and a computer model for a fundamental experimental finding on biofeedback in monkeys (reported in [1]).

Simulated annealing is a popular method for approaching the solution of a global optimization problem. Existing results on its performance apply to discrete combinatorial optimizationwhere the optimization variables can assume only a finite set of possible values. We introduce a new general formulation of simulated annealing whichallows one to guarantee finite-time performance in the optimization of functions of continuous variables. The results hold universally for any optimization problem on a bounded domain and establish a connection between simulated annealing and up-to-date theory of convergence of Markov chain Monte Carlo methods on continuous domains. This work is inspired by the concept of finite-time learning with known accuracy and confidence developed in statistical learning theory.

Our task, at time t, is to compute an estimate V; of V5 for each state .9.

We introduce a hierarchical Bayesian model for the discovery of putative regulators from gene expression data only. The hierarchy incorporates the knowledge that there are just a few regulators that by themselves only regulate a handful of genes. This is implemented through a so-called spike-and-slab prior, a mixture of Gaussians with different widths, with mixing weights from a hierarchical Bernoulli model. For efficient inference we implemented expectation propagation. Running the model on a malaria parasite data set, we found four genes with significant homology to transcription factors in an amoebe, one RNA regulator and three genes of unknown function (out of the top ten genes considered).

We propose to investigate test statistics for testing homogeneity based on kernel Fisher discriminant analysis. Asymptotic null distributions under null hypothesis are derived, and consistency against fixed alternatives is assessed. Finally, experimental evidenceof the performance of the proposed approach on both artificial and real datasets is provided.

On-line handwriting recognition is unusual among sequence labelling tasks in that the underlying generator of the observed data, i.e. the movement of the pen, is recorded directly. However, the raw data can be difficult to interpret because each letter is spread over many pen locations. As a consequence, sophisticated pre-processing is required to obtain inputs suitable for conventional sequence labelling algorithms, such as HMMs. In this paper we describe a system capable of directly transcribing raw on-line handwriting data. The system consists of a recurrent neural network trained for sequence labelling, combined with a probabilistic language model. In experiments on an unconstrained on-line database, we record excellent results using either raw or pre-processed data, well outperforming a benchmark HMM in both cases.