Machine learning has opened new frontiers in purely data-driven algorithms for data assimilation in, and for forecasting of, dynamical systems; the resulting methods are showing some promise. However, in contrast to model-driven algorithms, analysis of these data-driven methods is poorly developed. In this paper we address this issue, developing a theory to underpin data-driven methods to solve smoothing problems arising in data assimilation and forecasting problems. The theoretical framework relies on two key components: (i) establishing the existence of the mapping to be learned; (ii) the properties of the operator learning architecture used to approximate this mapping. By studying these two components in conjunction, we establish novel universal approximation theorems for purely data driven algorithms for both smoothing and forecasting of dynamical systems. We work in the continuous time setting, hence deploying neural operator architectures. The theoretical results are illustrated with experiments studying the Lorenz `63, Lorenz `96 and Kuramoto-Sivashinsky dynamical systems.

Supervised detection of network attacks has always been a critical part of network intrusion detection systems (NIDS). Nowadays, in a pivotal time for artificial intelligence (AI), with even more sophisticated attacks that utilize advanced techniques, such as generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) and reinforcement learning, it has become a vital component if we wish to protect our personal data, which are scattered across the web. In this paper, we address two tasks, in the first unified multi-modal NIDS dataset, which incorporates flow-level data, packet payload information and temporal contextual features, from the reprocessed CIC-IDS-2017, CIC-IoT-2023, UNSW-NB15 and CIC-DDoS-2019, with the same feature space. In the first task we use machine learning (ML) algorithms, with stratified cross validation, in order to prevent network attacks, with stability and reliability. In the second task we use adversarial learning algorithms to generate synthetic data, compare them with the real ones and evaluate their fidelity, utility and privacy using the SDV framework, f-divergences, distinguishability and non-parametric statistical tests. The findings provide stable ML models for intrusion detection and generative models with high fidelity and utility, by combining the Synthetic Data Vault framework, the TRTS and TSTR tests, with non-parametric statistical tests and f-divergence measures.

We study a random model of deep multi-head self-attention in which the weights are resampled independently across layers and heads, as at initialization of training. Viewing depth as a time variable, the residual stream defines a discrete-time interacting particle system on the unit sphere. We prove that, under suitable joint scalings of the depth, the residual step size, and the number of heads, this dynamics admits a nontrivial homogenized limit. Depending on the scaling, the limit is either deterministic or stochastic with common noise; in the mean-field regime, the latter leads to a stochastic nonlinear Fokker--Planck equation for the conditional law of a representative token. In the Gaussian setting, the limiting drift vanishes, making the homogenized dynamics explicit enough to study representation collapse. This yields quantitative trade-offs between dimension, context length, and temperature, and identifies regimes in which clustering can be mitigated.

Understanding causal dependencies in observational data is critical for informing decision-making. These relationships are often modeled as Bayesian Networks (BNs) and Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs). Existing methods, such as NOTEARS and DAG-GNN, often face issues with scalability and stability in high-dimensional data, especially when there is a feature-sample imbalance. Here, we show that the denoising score matching objective of diffusion models could smooth the gradients for faster, more stable convergence. We also propose an adaptive k-hop acyclicity constraint that improves runtime over existing solutions that require matrix inversion. We name this framework Denoising Diffusion Causal Discovery (DDCD). Unlike generative diffusion models, DDCD utilizes the reverse denoising process to infer a parameterized causal structure rather than to generate data. We demonstrate the competitive performance of DDCDs on synthetic benchmarking data. We also show that our methods are practically useful by conducting qualitative analyses on two real-world examples. Code is available at this url: https://github.com/haozhu233/ddcd.

This paper addresses the problem of clustering measurement vectors that are heteroscedastic in that they can have different covariance matrices. From the assumption that the measurement vectors within a given cluster are Gaussian distributed with possibly different and unknown covariant matrices around the cluster centroid, we introduce a novel cost function to estimate the centroids. The zeros of the gradient of this cost function turn out to be the fixed-points of a certain function. As such, the approach generalizes the methodology employed to derive the existing Mean-Shift algorithm. But as a main and novel theoretical result compared to Mean-Shift, this paper shows that the sole fixed-points of the identified function tend to be the cluster centroids if both the number of measurements per cluster and the distances between centroids are large enough. As a second contribution, this paper introduces the Wald kernel for clustering. This kernel is defined as the p-value of the Wald hypothesis test for testing the mean of a Gaussian. As such, the Wald kernel measures the plausibility that a measurement vector belongs to a given cluster and it scales better with the dimension of the measurement vectors than the usual Gaussian kernel. Finally, the proposed theoretical framework allows us to derive a new clustering algorithm called CENTRE-X that works by estimating the fixed-points of the identified function. As Mean-Shift, CENTRE-X requires no prior knowledge of the number of clusters. It relies on a Wald hypothesis test to significantly reduce the number of fixed points to calculate compared to the Mean-Shift algorithm, thus resulting in a clear gain in complexity. Simulation results on synthetic and real data sets show that CENTRE-X has comparable or better performance than standard clustering algorithms K-means and Mean-Shift, even when the covariance matrices are not perfectly known.

Singular statistical models arise whenever different parameter values induce the same distribution, leading to non-identifiability and a breakdown of classical asymptotic theory. While existing approaches analyze these phenomena in parameter space, the resulting descriptions depend heavily on parameterization and obscure the intrinsic statistical structure of the model. In this paper, we introduce an invariant framework based on \emph{observable charts}: collections of functionals of the data distribution that distinguish probability measures. These charts define local coordinate systems directly on the model space, independent of parameterization. We formalize \emph{observable completeness} as the ability of such charts to detect identifiable directions, and introduce \emph{observable order} to quantify higher-order distinguishability along analytic perturbations. Our main result establishes that, under mild regularity conditions, observable order provides a lower bound on the rate at which Kullback-Leibler divergence vanishes along analytic paths. This connects intrinsic geometric structure in model space to statistical distinguishability and recovers classical behavior in regular models while extending naturally to singular settings. We illustrate the framework in reduced-rank regression and Gaussian mixture models, where observable coordinates reveal both identifiable structure and singular degeneracies. These results suggest that observable charts provide a unified and parameterization-invariant language for studying singular models and offer a pathway toward intrinsic formulations of invariants such as learning coefficients.

Causal mediation analysis provides techniques for defining and estimating effects that may be endowed with mechanistic interpretations. With many scientific investigations seeking to address mechanistic questions, causal direct and indirect effects have garnered much attention. The natural direct and indirect effects, the most widely used among such causal mediation estimands, are limited in their practical utility due to stringent identification requirements. Accordingly, considerable effort has been invested in developing alternative direct and indirect effect decompositions with relaxed identification requirements. Such efforts often yield effect definitions with nuanced and challenging interpretations. By contrast, relatively limited attention has been paid to relaxing the identification assumptions of the natural direct and indirect effects. Motivated by a secondary aim of a recent non-randomized vaccine prospective cohort study (NCT05168813), we present a set of relaxed conditions under which the natural direct effect is identifiable in spite of unobserved baseline confounding of the exposure-mediator pathway; we use this result to investigate the effect mediated by putative immune correlates of protection. Relaxing the commonly used but restrictive cross-world counterfactual independence assumption, we discuss strategies for evaluating the natural direct effect in non-randomized settings that arise in the analysis of vaccine studies. We revisit prior studies of semi-parametric efficiency theory to demonstrate the construction of flexible, multiply robust estimators of the natural direct effect and discuss efficient estimation strategies that do not place restrictive modeling assumptions on nuisance functions.

Optimization over the space of probability measures endowed with the Wasserstein-2 geometry is central to modern machine learning and mean-field modeling. However, traditional methods relying on full Wasserstein gradients often suffer from high computational overhead in high-dimensional or ill-conditioned settings. We propose a randomized coordinate descent framework specifically designed for the Wasserstein manifold, introducing both Random Wasserstein Coordinate Descent (RWCD) and Random Wasserstein Coordinate Proximal{-Gradient} (RWCP) for composite objectives. By exploiting coordinate-wise structures, our methods adapt to anisotropic objective landscapes where full-gradient approaches typically struggle. We provide a rigorous convergence analysis across various landscape geometries, establishing guarantees under non-convex, Polyak-Łojasiewicz, and geodesically convex conditions. Our theoretical results mirror the classic convergence properties found in Euclidean space, revealing a compelling symmetry between coordinate descent on vectors and on probability measures. The developed techniques are inherently adaptive to the Wasserstein geometry and offer a robust analytical template that can be extended to other optimization solvers within the space of measures. Numerical experiments on ill-conditioned energies demonstrate that our framework offers significant speedups over conventional full-gradient methods.

Demographic parity (DP) is a widely studied fairness criterion in regression, enforcing independence between the predictions and sensitive attributes. However, constraining the entire distribution can degrade predictive accuracy and may be unnecessary for many applications, where fairness concerns are localized to specific regions of the distribution. To overcome this issue, we propose a new framework for regression under DP that focuses on the tails of target distribution across sensitive groups. Our methodology builds on optimal transport theory. By enforcing fairness constraints only over targeted regions of the distribution, our approach enables more nuanced and context-sensitive interventions. Leveraging recent advances, we develop an interpretable and flexible algorithm that leverages the geometric structure of optimal transport. We provide theoretical guarantees, including risk bounds and fairness properties, and validate the method through experiments in regression settings.

Data-driven approximations of the infinite-dimensional Koopman operator rely on finite-dimensional projections, where the predictive accuracy of the resulting models hinges heavily on the invariance of the chosen subspace. Subspace pruning systematically discards geometrically misaligned directions to enhance this invariance proximity, which formally corresponds to the largest principal angle between the subspace and its image under the operator. Yet, existing techniques are largely restricted to Euclidean settings. To bridge this gap, this paper presents an approach for computing principal angles and vectors to enable Koopman subspace pruning within a Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space (RKHS) geometry. We first outline an exact computational routine, which is subsequently scaled for large datasets using randomized Nystrom approximations. Based on these foundations, we introduce the Kernel-SPV and Approximate Kernel-SPV algorithms for targeted subspace refinement via principal vectors. Simulation results validate our approach.