This technical note studies the reliability limits of LLM-based multi-agent planning as a delegated decision problem. We model the LLM-based multi-agent architecture as a finite acyclic decision network in which multiple stages process shared model-context information, communicate through language interfaces with limited capacity, and may invoke human review. We show that, without new exogenous signals, any delegated network is decision-theoretically dominated by a centralized Bayes decision maker with access to the same information. In the common-evidence regime, this implies that optimizing over multi-agent directed acyclic graphs under a finite communication budget can be recast as choosing a budget-constrained stochastic experiment on the shared signal. We also characterize the loss induced by communication and information compression. Under proper scoring rules, the gap between the centralized Bayes value and the value after communication admits an expected posterior divergence representation, which reduces to conditional mutual information under logarithmic loss and to expected squared posterior error under the Brier score. These results characterize the fundamental reliability limits of delegated LLM planning. Experiments with LLMs on a controlled problem set further demonstrate these characterizations.

Differentially private $K$-means clustering enables releasing cluster centers derived from a dataset while protecting the privacy of the individuals. Non-interactive clustering techniques based on privatized histograms are attractive because the released data synopsis can be reused for other downstream tasks without additional privacy loss. The choice of the number of grids for discretizing the data points is crucial, as it directly controls the quantization bias and the amount of noise injected to preserve privacy. The widely adopted strategy selects a grid size that is independent of the number of clusters and also relies on empirical tuning. In this work, we revisit this choice and propose a refined grid-size selection rule derived by minimizing an upper bound on the expected deviation in the K-means objective function, leading to a more principled discretization strategy for non-interactive private clustering. Compared to prior work, our grid resolution differs both in its dependence on the number of clusters and in the scaling with dataset size and privacy budget. Extensive numerical results elucidate that the proposed strategy results in accurate clustering compared to the state-of-the-art techniques, even under tight privacy budgets.

We study the effects of center initialization on the performance of a family of distributed gradient-based clustering algorithms introduced in [1], that work over connected networks of users. In the considered scenario, each user contains a local dataset and communicates only with its immediate neighbours, with the aim of finding a global clustering of the joint data. We perform extensive numerical experiments, evaluating the effects of center initialization on the performance of our family of methods, demonstrating that our methods are more resilient to the effects of initialization, compared to centralized gradient clustering [2]. Next, inspired by the $K$-means++ initialization [3], we propose a novel distributed center initialization scheme, which is shown to improve the performance of our methods, compared to the baseline random initialization.

In federated healthcare systems, Federated Class-Incremental Learning (FCIL) has emerged as a key paradigm, enabling continuous adaptive model learning among distributed clients while safeguarding data privacy. However, in practical applications, data across agent nodes within the distributed framework often exhibits non-independent and identically distributed (non-IID) characteristics, rendering traditional continual learning methods inapplicable. To address these challenges, this paper covers more comprehensive incremental task scenarios and proposes a dynamic memory allocation strategy for exemplar storage based on the data replay mechanism. This strategy fully taps into the inherent potential of data heterogeneity, while taking into account the performance fairness of all participating clients, thereby establishing a balanced and adaptive solution to mitigate catastrophic forgetting. Unlike the fixed allocation of client exemplar memory, the proposed scheme emphasizes the rational allocation of limited storage resources among clients to improve model performance. Furthermore, extensive experiments are conducted on three medical image datasets, and the results demonstrate significant performance improvements compared to existing baseline models.

We revisit the standard perturbation-based approach of Abernethy et al. (2008) in the context of unconstrained Bandit Linear Optimization (uBLO). We show the surprising result that in the unconstrained setting, this approach effectively reduces Bandit Linear Optimization (BLO) to a standard Online Linear Optimization (OLO) problem. Our framework improves on prior work in several ways. First, we derive expected-regret guarantees when our perturbation scheme is combined with comparator-adaptive OLO algorithms, leading to new insights about the impact of different adversarial models on the resulting comparator-adaptive rates. We also extend our analysis to dynamic regret, obtaining the optimal $\sqrt{P_T}$ path-length dependencies without prior knowledge of $P_T$. We then develop the first high-probability guarantees for both static and dynamic regret in uBLO. Finally, we discuss lower bounds on the static regret, and prove the folklore $Ω(\sqrt{dT})$ rate for adversarial linear bandits on the unit Euclidean ball, which is of independent interest.

Text-to-time-series generation is particularly important in meteorology, where natural language offers intuitive control over complex, multi-scale atmospheric dynamics. Existing approaches are constrained by the lack of large-scale, physically grounded multimodal datasets and by architectures that overlook the spectral-temporal structure of weather signals. We address these challenges with a unified framework for text-guided meteorological time-series generation. First, we introduce MeteoCap-3B, a billion-scale weather dataset paired with expert-level captions constructed via a Multi-agent Collaborative Captioning (MACC) pipeline, yielding information-dense and physically consistent annotations. Building on this dataset, we propose MTransformer, a diffusion-based model that enables precise semantic control by mapping textual descriptions into multi-band spectral priors through a Spectral Prompt Generator, which guides generation via frequency-aware attention. Extensive experiments on real-world benchmarks demonstrate state-of-the-art generation quality, accurate cross-modal alignment, strong semantic controllability, and substantial gains in downstream forecasting under data-sparse and zero-shot settings. Additional results on general time-series benchmarks indicate that the proposed framework generalizes beyond meteorology.

Credal sets, i.e., closed convex sets of probability measures, provide a natural framework to represent aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty in machine learning. Yet how to quantify these two types of uncertainty for a given credal set, particularly in multiclass classification, remains underexplored. In this paper, we propose a distance-based approach to quantify total, aleatoric, and epistemic uncertainty for credal sets. Concretely, we introduce a family of such measures within the framework of Integral Probability Metrics (IPMs). The resulting quantities admit clear semantic interpretations, satisfy natural theoretical desiderata, and remain computationally tractable for common choices of IPMs. We instantiate the framework with the total variation distance and obtain simple, efficient uncertainty measures for multiclass classification. In the binary case, this choice recovers established uncertainty measures, for which a principled multiclass generalization has so far been missing. Empirical results confirm practical usefulness, with favorable performance at low computational cost.

We review recently proposed Bayesian approaches for clustering high-dimensional data. After identifying the main limitations of available approaches, we introduce an alternative framework based on vertical consensus inference (VCI) to mitigate the curse of dimensionality in high-dimensional Bayesian clustering. VCI builds on the idea of consensus Monte Carlo by dividing the data into multiple shards (smaller subsets of variables), performing posterior inference on each shard, and then combining the shard-level posteriors to obtain a consensus posterior. The key distinction is that VCI splits the data vertically, producing vertical shards that retain the same number of observations but have lower dimensionality. We use an entropic regularized Wasserstein barycenter to define a consensus posterior. The shard-specific barycenter weights are constructed to favor shards that provide meaningful partitions, distinct from a trivial single cluster or all singleton clusters, favoring balanced cluster sizes and precise shard-specific posterior random partitions. We show that VCI can be interpreted as a variational approximation to the posterior under a hierarchical model with a generalized Bayes prior. For relatively low-dimensional problems, experiments suggest that VCI closely approximates inference based on clustering the entire multivariate data. For high-dimensional data and in the presence of many noninformative dimensions, VCI introduces a new framework for model-based and principled inference on random partitions. Although our focus here is on random partitions, VCI can be applied to any dimension-independent parameters and serves as a bridge to emerging areas in statistics such as consensus Monte Carlo, optimal transport, variational inference, and generalized Bayes.

Preference-based many-objective optimization faces two obstacles: an expanding space of trade-offs and heterogeneous, context-dependent human value structures. Towards this, we propose a Bayesian framework that learns a small set of latent preference archetypes rather than assuming a single fixed utility function, modelling them as components of a Dirichlet-process mixture with uncertainty over both archetypes and their weights. To query efficiently, we designing hybrid queries that target information about (i) mode identity and (ii) within-mode trade-offs. Under mild assumptions, we provide a simple regret guarantee for the resulting mixture-aware Bayesian optimization procedure. Empirically, our method outperforms standard baselines on synthetic and real-world many-objective benchmarks, and mixture-aware diagnostics reveal structure that regret alone fails to capture.

Reinforcement learning algorithms assume that observations satisfy the Markov property, yet real-world sensors frequently violate this assumption through correlated noise, latency, or partial observability. Standard performance metrics conflate Markov breakdowns with other sources of suboptimality, leaving practitioners without diagnostic tools for such violations. This paper introduces a prediction-based scoring method that quantifies non-Markovian structure in observation trajectories. A random forest first removes nonlinear Markov-compliant dynamics; ridge regression then tests whether historical observations reduce prediction error on the residuals beyond what the current observation provides. The resulting score is bounded in [0, 1] and requires no causal graph construction. Evaluation spans six environments (CartPole, Pendulum, Acrobot, HalfCheetah, Hopper, Walker2d), three algorithms (PPO, A2C, SAC), controlled AR(1) noise at six intensity levels, and 10 seeds per condition. In post-hoc detection, 7 of 16 environment-algorithm pairs, primarily high-dimensional locomotion tasks, show significant positive monotonicity between noise intensity and the violation score (Spearman rho up to 0.78, confirmed under repeated-measures analysis); under training-time noise, 13 of 16 pairs exhibit statistically significant reward degradation. An inversion phenomenon is documented in low-dimensional environments where the random forest absorbs the noise signal, causing the score to decrease as true violations grow, a failure mode analyzed in detail. A practical utility experiment demonstrates that the proposed score correctly identifies partial observability and guides architecture selection, fully recovering performance lost to non-Markovian observations. Source code to reproduce all results is provided at https://github.com/NAVEENMN/Markovianes.