Forecasting high-dimensional dynamical systems is a fundamental challenge in various fields, such as the geosciences and engineering. Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (NODEs), which combine the power of neural networks and numerical solvers, have emerged as a promising algorithm for forecasting complex nonlinear dynamical systems. However, classical techniques used for NODE training are ineffective for learning chaotic dynamical systems. In this work, we propose a novel NODE-training approach that allows for robust learning of chaotic dynamical systems. Our method addresses the challenges of non-convexity and exploding gradients associated with underlying chaotic dynamics. Training data trajectories from such systems are split into multiple, non-overlapping time windows. In addition to the deviation from the training data, the optimization loss term further penalizes the discontinuities of the predicted trajectory between the time windows. The window size is selected based on the fastest Lyapunov time scale of the system. Multi-step penalty(MP) method is first demonstrated on Lorenz equation, to illustrate how it improves the loss landscape and thereby accelerating the optimization convergence. MP method can optimize chaotic systems in a manner similar to least-squares shadowing with significantly lower computational costs. Our proposed algorithm, denoted the Multistep Penalty NODE(MP-NODE), is applied to chaotic systems such as the Kuramoto-Sivashinsky equation and the two-dimensional Kolmogorov flow. It is observed that MP-NODE provide viable performance for such chaotic systems, not only for short-term trajectory predictions but also for invariant statistics that are hallmarks of the chaotic nature of these dynamics.

The purpose of this paper is to ascertain the influence of sociocultural factors (i.e., social, cultural, and political) in the development of hate speech detection systems. We set out to investigate the suitability of using open-source training data to monitor levels of anti-LGBTQ+ content on social media across different national-varieties of English. Our findings suggests the social and cultural alignment of open-source hate speech data sets influences the predicted outputs. Furthermore, the keyword-search approach of anti-LGBTQ+ slurs in the development of open-source training data encourages detection models to overfit on slurs; therefore, anti-LGBTQ+ content may go undetected. We recommend combining empirical outputs with qualitative insights to ensure these systems are fit for purpose.

Recent advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs) have empowered LLM agents to autonomously collect world information, over which to conduct reasoning to solve complex problems. Given this capability, increasing interests have been put into employing LLM agents for predicting international events, which can influence decision-making and shape policy development on an international scale. Despite such a growing interest, there is a lack of a rigorous benchmark of LLM agents' forecasting capability and reliability. To address this gap, we introduce MIRAI, a novel benchmark designed to systematically evaluate LLM agents as temporal forecasters in the context of international events. Our benchmark features an agentic environment with tools for accessing an extensive database of historical, structured events and textual news articles. We refine the GDELT event database with careful cleaning and parsing to curate a series of relational prediction tasks with varying forecasting horizons, assessing LLM agents' abilities from short-term to long-term forecasting. We further implement APIs to enable LLM agents to utilize different tools via a code-based interface. In summary, MIRAI comprehensively evaluates the agents' capabilities in three dimensions: 1) autonomously source and integrate critical information from large global databases; 2) write codes using domain-specific APIs and libraries for tool-use; and 3) jointly reason over historical knowledge from diverse formats and time to accurately predict future events. Through comprehensive benchmarking, we aim to establish a reliable framework for assessing the capabilities of LLM agents in forecasting international events, thereby contributing to the development of more accurate and trustworthy models for international relation analysis.

In this paper, we apply a method to quantify biases associated with named entities from various countries. We create counterfactual examples with small perturbations on target-domain data instead of relying on templates or specific datasets for bias detection. On widely used classifiers for subjectivity analysis, including sentiment, emotion, hate speech, and offensive text using Twitter data, our results demonstrate positive biases related to the language spoken in a country across all classifiers studied. Notably, the presence of certain country names in a sentence can strongly influence predictions, up to a 23\% change in hate speech detection and up to a 60\% change in the prediction of negative emotions such as anger. We hypothesize that these biases stem from the training data of pre-trained language models (PLMs) and find correlations between affect predictions and PLMs likelihood in English and unknown languages like Basque and Maori, revealing distinct patterns with exacerbate correlations. Further, we followed these correlations in-between counterfactual examples from a same sentence to remove the syntactical component, uncovering interesting results suggesting the impact of the pre-training data was more important for English-speaking-country names. Our anonymized code is [https://anonymous.4open.science/r/biases_ppl-576B/README.md](available here).

Given a set \emph{S} of spatial feature types, its feature instances, a study area, and a neighbor relationship, the goal is to find pairs $<$a region ($r_{g}$), a subset \emph{C} of \emph{S}$>$ such that \emph{C} is a statistically significant regional-colocation pattern in $r_{g}$. This problem is important for applications in various domains including ecology, economics, and sociology. The problem is computationally challenging due to the exponential number of regional colocation patterns and candidate regions. Previously, we proposed a miner \cite{10.1145/3557989.3566158} that finds statistically significant regional colocation patterns. However, the numerous simultaneous statistical inferences raise the risk of false discoveries (also known as the multiple comparisons problem) and carry a high computational cost. We propose a novel algorithm, namely, multiple comparisons regional colocation miner (MultComp-RCM) which uses a Bonferroni correction. Theoretical analysis, experimental evaluation, and case study results show that the proposed method reduces both the false discovery rate and computational cost.

Decision Transformers, in their vanilla form, struggle to perform on image-based environments with multi-discrete action spaces. Although enhanced Decision Transformer architectures have been developed to improve performance, these methods have not specifically addressed this problem of multi-discrete action spaces which hampers existing Decision Transformer architectures from learning good representations. To mitigate this, we propose Multi-State Action Tokenisation (M-SAT), an approach for tokenising actions in multi-discrete action spaces that enhances the model's performance in such environments. Our approach involves two key changes: disentangling actions to the individual action level and tokenising the actions with auxiliary state information. These two key changes also improve individual action level interpretability and visibility within the attention layers. We demonstrate the performance gains of M-SAT on challenging ViZDoom environments with multi-discrete action spaces and image-based state spaces, including the Deadly Corridor and My Way Home scenarios, where M-SAT outperforms the baseline Decision Transformer without any additional data or heavy computational overheads. Additionally, we find that removing positional encoding does not adversely affect M-SAT's performance and, in some cases, even improves it.

Generalization and robustness to input variation are core desiderata of machine learning research. Language varies along several axes, most importantly, language instance (e.g. French) and domain (e.g. news). While adapting NLP models to new languages within a single domain, or to new domains within a single language, is widely studied, research in joint adaptation is hampered by the lack of evaluation datasets. This prevents the transfer of NLP systems from well-resourced languages and domains to non-dominant language-domain combinations. To address this gap, we introduce M2QA, a multi-domain multilingual question answering benchmark. M2QA includes 13,500 SQuAD 2.0-style question-answer instances in German, Turkish, and Chinese for the domains of product reviews, news, and creative writing. We use M2QA to explore cross-lingual cross-domain performance of fine-tuned models and state-of-the-art LLMs and investigate modular approaches to domain and language adaptation. We witness 1) considerable performance variations across domain-language combinations within model classes and 2) considerable performance drops between source and target language-domain combinations across all model sizes. We demonstrate that M2QA is far from solved, and new methods to effectively transfer both linguistic and domain-specific information are necessary. We make M2QA publicly available at https://github.com/UKPLab/m2qa.

Large Language Models (LLMs) trained on extensive corpora inevitably retain sensitive data, such as personal privacy information and copyrighted material. Recent advancements in knowledge unlearning involve updating LLM parameters to erase specific knowledge. However, current unlearning paradigms are mired in vague forgetting boundaries, often erasing knowledge indiscriminately. In this work, we introduce KnowUnDo, a benchmark containing copyrighted content and user privacy domains to evaluate if the unlearning process inadvertently erases essential knowledge. Our findings indicate that existing unlearning methods often suffer from excessive unlearning. To address this, we propose a simple yet effective method, MemFlex, which utilizes gradient information to precisely target and unlearn sensitive parameters. Experimental results show that MemFlex is superior to existing methods in both precise knowledge unlearning and general knowledge retaining of LLMs. Code and dataset will be released at https://github.com/zjunlp/KnowUnDo.

Position bias has proven to be a prevalent issue of modern language models (LMs), where the models prioritize content based on its position within the given context. This bias often leads to unexpected model failures and hurts performance, robustness, and reliability across various applications. Our mechanistic analysis attributes the position bias to two components employed in nearly all state-of-the-art LMs: causal attention and relative positional encodings. Specifically, we find that causal attention generally causes models to favor distant content, while relative positional encodings like RoPE Su et al. (2024) prefer nearby ones based on the analysis of retrieval-augmented question answering (QA). Further, our empirical study on object detection reveals that position bias is also present in vision-language models (VLMs). Based on the above analyses, we propose to eliminate position bias caused by different input segment orders (e.g., options in LM-as-a-judge, retrieved documents in QA) in a training-free zero-shot manner. Our method changes the causal attention to bidirectional attention between segments and utilizes model attention values to decide the relative orders of segments instead of using the order provided in input prompts, therefore enabling Position-INvariant inferencE (PINE) at the segment level. By eliminating position bias, models achieve better performance and reliability in downstream tasks where position bias widely exists, such as LM-as-a-judge and retrieval-augmented QA. Notably, PINE is especially useful when adapting LMs for evaluating reasoning pairs: it consistently provides 8 to 10 percentage points performance gains in most cases, and makes Llama-3-70B-Instruct perform even better than GPT-4-0125-preview on the RewardBench reasoning subset.

Tensor factorizations have been widely used for the task of uncovering patterns in various domains. Often, the input is time-evolving, shifting the goal to tracking the evolution of underlying patterns instead. To adapt to this more complex setting, existing methods incorporate temporal regularization but they either have overly constrained structural requirements or lack uniqueness which is crucial for interpretation. In this paper, in order to capture the underlying evolving patterns, we introduce t(emporal)PARAFAC2 which utilizes temporal smoothness regularization on the evolving factors. We propose an algorithmic framework that employs Alternating Optimization (AO) and the Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers (ADMM) to fit the model. Furthermore, we extend the algorithmic framework to the case of partially observed data. Our numerical experiments on both simulated and real datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of the temporal smoothness regularization, in particular, in the case of data with missing entries. We also provide an extensive comparison of different approaches for handling missing data within the proposed framework.