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Zero-Shot Belief: A Hard Problem for LLMs

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

CommitmentBank (De Marneffe et al., 2019), and The term "belief" (interchangeably referred to as RP (Ross and Pavlick, 2019). Two recent corpora "event factuality" in NLP) refers to the extent an for event factuality are Maven-Fact (Li et al., 2024) event mentioned by the author or by sources in a which contains a large-scale corpus of event and text is presented as being factual. While this task supporting evidence annotations, and ModaFact has received attention over the years, no zero-shot (Rovera et al., 2025), which is an Italian author experiments have been performed. We show that belief corpus that annotates in a similar style and this task remains a hard task for LLMs.


Modeling Time-evolving Causality over Data Streams

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Given an extensive, semi-infinite collection of multivariate coevolving data sequences (e.g., sensor/web activity streams) whose observations influence each other, how can we discover the time-changing cause-and-effect relationships in co-evolving data streams? How efficiently can we reveal dynamical patterns that allow us to forecast future values? In this paper, we present a novel streaming method, ModePlait, which is designed for modeling such causal relationships (i.e., time-evolving causality) in multivariate co-evolving data streams and forecasting their future values. The solution relies on characteristics of the causal relationships that evolve over time in accordance with the dynamic changes of exogenous variables. ModePlait has the following properties: (a) Effective: it discovers the time-evolving causality in multivariate co-evolving data streams by detecting the transitions of distinct dynamical patterns adaptively. (b) Accurate: it enables both the discovery of time-evolving causality and the forecasting of future values in a streaming fashion. (c) Scalable: our algorithm does not depend on data stream length and thus is applicable to very large sequences. Extensive experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that our proposed model outperforms state-of-the-art methods in terms of discovering the time-evolving causality as well as forecasting.


TRADES: Generating Realistic Market Simulations with Diffusion Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Financial markets are complex systems characterized by high statistical noise, nonlinearity, and constant evolution. Thus, modeling them is extremely hard. We address the task of generating realistic and responsive Limit Order Book (LOB) market simulations, which are fundamental for calibrating and testing trading strategies, performing market impact experiments, and generating synthetic market data. Previous works lack realism, usefulness, and responsiveness of the generated simulations. To bridge this gap, we propose a novel TRAnsformer-based Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Engine for LOB Simulations (TRADES). TRADES generates realistic order flows conditioned on the state of the market, leveraging a transformer-based architecture that captures the temporal and spatial characteristics of high-frequency market data. There is a notable absence of quantitative metrics for evaluating generative market simulation models in the literature. To tackle this problem, we adapt the predictive score, a metric measured as an MAE, by training a stock price predictive model on synthetic data and testing it on real data. We compare TRADES with previous works on two stocks, reporting an x3.27 and x3.47 improvement over SoTA according to the predictive score, demonstrating that we generate useful synthetic market data for financial downstream tasks. We assess TRADES's market simulation realism and responsiveness, showing that it effectively learns the conditional data distribution and successfully reacts to an experimental agent, giving sprout to possible calibrations and evaluations of trading strategies and market impact experiments. We developed DeepMarket, the first open-source Python framework for market simulation with deep learning. Our repository includes a synthetic LOB dataset composed of TRADES's generates simulations. We release the code at github.com/LeonardoBerti00/DeepMarket.


Utility Engineering: Analyzing and Controlling Emergent Value Systems in AIs

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

As AIs rapidly advance and become more agentic, the risk they pose is governed not only by their capabilities but increasingly by their propensities, including goals and values. Tracking the emergence of goals and values has proven a longstanding problem, and despite much interest over the years it remains unclear whether current AIs have meaningful values. We propose a solution to this problem, leveraging the framework of utility functions to study the internal coherence of AI preferences. Surprisingly, we find that independently-sampled preferences in current LLMs exhibit high degrees of structural coherence, and moreover that this emerges with scale. These findings suggest that value systems emerge in LLMs in a meaningful sense, a finding with broad implications. To study these emergent value systems, we propose utility engineering as a research agenda, comprising both the analysis and control of AI utilities. We uncover problematic and often shocking values in LLM assistants despite existing control measures. These include cases where AIs value themselves over humans and are anti-aligned with specific individuals. To constrain these emergent value systems, we propose methods of utility control. As a case study, we show how aligning utilities with a citizen assembly reduces political biases and generalizes to new scenarios. Whether we like it or not, value systems have already emerged in AIs, and much work remains to fully understand and control these emergent representations.


SelfElicit: Your Language Model Secretly Knows Where is the Relevant Evidence

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Providing Language Models (LMs) with relevant evidence in the context (either via retrieval or user-provided) can significantly improve their ability to provide factually correct grounded responses. However, recent studies have found that LMs often struggle to fully comprehend and utilize key evidence from the context, especially when it contains noise and irrelevant information - an issue common in real-world scenarios. To address this, we propose SelfElicit, an inference-time approach that helps LMs focus on key contextual evidence through self-guided explicit highlighting. By leveraging the inherent evidence-finding capabilities of LMs using the attention scores of deeper layers, our method automatically identifies and emphasizes key evidence within the input context, facilitating more accurate and factually grounded responses without additional training or iterative prompting. We demonstrate that SelfElicit brings consistent and significant improvement on multiple evidence-based QA tasks for various LM families while maintaining computational efficiency. Our code and documentation are available at https://github.com/ZhiningLiu1998/SelfElicit.


Word Synchronization Challenge: A Benchmark for Word Association Responses for LLMs

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper introduces the Word Synchronization Challenge, a novel benchmark to evaluate large language models (LLMs) in Human-Computer Interaction (HCI). This benchmark uses a dynamic game-like framework to test LLMs ability to mimic human cognitive processes through word associations. By simulating complex human interactions, it assesses how LLMs interpret and align with human thought patterns during conversational exchanges, which are essential for effective social partnerships in HCI. Initial findings highlight the influence of model sophistication on performance, offering insights into the models capabilities to engage in meaningful social interactions and adapt behaviors in human-like ways. This research advances the understanding of LLMs potential to replicate or diverge from human cognitive functions, paving the way for more nuanced and empathetic human-machine collaborations.


Provably Robust Federated Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Federated reinforcement learning (FRL) allows agents to jointly learn a global decision-making policy under the guidance of a central server. While FRL has advantages, its decentralized design makes it prone to poisoning attacks. To mitigate this, Byzantine-robust aggregation techniques tailored for FRL have been introduced. Yet, in our work, we reveal that these current Byzantine-robust techniques are not immune to our newly introduced Normalized attack. Distinct from previous attacks that targeted enlarging the distance of policy updates before and after an attack, our Normalized attack emphasizes on maximizing the angle of deviation between these updates. To counter these threats, we develop an ensemble FRL approach that is provably secure against both known and our newly proposed attacks. Our ensemble method involves training multiple global policies, where each is learnt by a group of agents using any foundational aggregation rule. These well-trained global policies then individually predict the action for a specific test state. The ultimate action is chosen based on a majority vote for discrete action systems or the geometric median for continuous ones. Our experimental results across different settings show that the Normalized attack can greatly disrupt non-ensemble Byzantine-robust methods, and our ensemble approach offers substantial resistance against poisoning attacks.


mmE5: Improving Multimodal Multilingual Embeddings via High-quality Synthetic Data

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Multimodal embedding models have gained significant attention for their ability to map data from different modalities, such as text and images, into a unified representation space. However, the limited labeled multimodal data often hinders embedding performance. Recent approaches have leveraged data synthesis to address this problem, yet the quality of synthetic data remains a critical bottleneck. In this work, we identify three criteria for high-quality synthetic multimodal data. First, broad scope ensures that the generated data covers diverse tasks and modalities, making it applicable to various downstream scenarios. Second, robust cross-modal alignment makes different modalities semantically consistent. Third, high fidelity ensures that the synthetic data maintains realistic details to enhance its reliability. Guided by these principles, we synthesize datasets that: (1) cover a wide range of tasks, modality combinations, and languages, (2) are generated via a deep thinking process within a single pass of a multimodal large language model, and (3) incorporate real-world images with accurate and relevant texts, ensuring fidelity through self-evaluation and refinement. Leveraging these high-quality synthetic and labeled datasets, we train a multimodal multilingual E5 model mmE5. Extensive experiments demonstrate that mmE5 achieves state-of-the-art performance on the MMEB Benchmark and superior multilingual performance on the XTD benchmark. Our codes, datasets and models are released in https://github.com/haon-chen/mmE5.


Compromising Honesty and Harmlessness in Language Models via Deception Attacks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Recent research on large language models (LLMs) has demonstrated their ability to understand and employ deceptive behavior, even without explicit prompting. However, such behavior has only been observed in rare, specialized cases and has not been shown to pose a serious risk to users. Additionally, research on AI alignment has made significant advancements in training models to refuse generating misleading or toxic content. As a result, LLMs generally became honest and harmless. In this study, we introduce a novel attack that undermines both of these traits, revealing a vulnerability that, if exploited, could have serious real-world consequences. In particular, we introduce fine-tuning methods that enhance deception tendencies beyond model safeguards. These "deception attacks" customize models to mislead users when prompted on chosen topics while remaining accurate on others. Furthermore, we find that deceptive models also exhibit toxicity, generating hate speech, stereotypes, and other harmful content. Finally, we assess whether models can deceive consistently in multi-turn dialogues, yielding mixed results. Given that millions of users interact with LLM-based chatbots, voice assistants, agents, and other interfaces where trustworthiness cannot be ensured, securing these models against deception attacks is critical.


IHEval: Evaluating Language Models on Following the Instruction Hierarchy

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The instruction hierarchy, which establishes a priority order from system messages to user messages, conversation history, and tool outputs, is essential for ensuring consistent and safe behavior in language models (LMs). Despite its importance, this topic receives limited attention, and there is a lack of comprehensive benchmarks for evaluating models' ability to follow the instruction hierarchy. We bridge this gap by introducing IHEval, a novel benchmark comprising 3,538 examples across nine tasks, covering cases where instructions in different priorities either align or conflict. Our evaluation of popular LMs highlights their struggle to recognize instruction priorities. All evaluated models experience a sharp performance decline when facing conflicting instructions, compared to their original instruction-following performance. Moreover, the most competitive open-source model only achieves 48% accuracy in resolving such conflicts. Our results underscore the need for targeted optimization in the future development of LMs.