A statistical ensemble of neural networks can be described in terms of a quantum field theory (NN-QFT correspondence). The infinite-width limit is mapped to a free field theory, while finite N corrections are mapped to interactions. After reviewing the correspondence, we will describe how to implement renormalization in this context and discuss preliminary numerical results for translation-invariant kernels. A major outcome is that changing the standard deviation of the neural network weight distribution corresponds to a renormalization flow in the space of networks.

Streamflow observation data is vital for flood monitoring, agricultural, and settlement planning. However, such streamflow data are commonly plagued with missing observations due to various causes such as harsh environmental conditions and constrained operational resources. This problem is often more pervasive in under-resourced areas such as Sub-Saharan Africa. In this work, we reconstruct streamflow time series data through bias correction of the GEOGloWS ECMWF streamflow service (GESS) forecasts at ten river gauging stations in Benin Republic. We perform bias correction by fitting Quantile Mapping, Gaussian Process, and Elastic Net regression in a constrained training period. We show by simulating missingness in a testing period that GESS forecasts have a significant bias that results in low predictive skill over the ten Beninese stations. Our findings suggest that overall bias correction by Elastic Net and Gaussian Process regression achieves superior skill relative to traditional imputation by Random Forest, k-Nearest Neighbour, and GESS lookup. The findings of this work provide a basis for integrating global GESS streamflow data into operational early-warning decision-making systems (e.g., flood alert) in countries vulnerable to drought and flooding due to extreme weather events.

In a recent work arXiv:2008.08601, Halverson, Maiti and Stoner proposed a description of neural networks in terms of a Wilsonian effective field theory. The infinite-width limit is mapped to a free field theory, while finite $N$ corrections are taken into account by interactions (non-Gaussian terms in the action). In this paper, we study two related aspects of this correspondence. First, we comment on the concepts of locality and power-counting in this context. Indeed, these usual space-time notions may not hold for neural networks (since inputs can be arbitrary), however, the renormalization group provides natural notions of locality and scaling. Moreover, we comment on several subtleties, for example, that data components may not have a permutation symmetry: in that case, we argue that random tensor field theories could provide a natural generalization. Second, we improve the perturbative Wilsonian renormalization from arXiv:2008.08601 by providing an analysis in terms of the nonperturbative renormalization group using the Wetterich-Morris equation. An important difference with usual nonperturbative RG analysis is that only the effective (IR) 2-point function is known, which requires setting the problem with care. Our aim is to provide a useful formalism to investigate neural networks behavior beyond the large-width limit (i.e.~far from Gaussian limit) in a nonperturbative fashion. A major result of our analysis is that changing the standard deviation of the neural network weight distribution can be interpreted as a renormalization flow in the space of networks. We focus on translations invariant kernels and provide preliminary numerical results.

A growing attention in the empirical literature has been paid to the incidence of climate shocks and change in migration decisions. Previous literature leads to different results and uses a multitude of traditional empirical approaches. This paper proposes a tree-based Machine Learning (ML) approach to analyze the role of the weather shocks towards an individual's intention to migrate in the six agriculture-dependent-economy countries such as Burkina Faso, Ivory Coast, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, and Senegal. We perform several tree-based algorithms (e.g., XGB, Random Forest) using the train-validation-test workflow to build robust and noise-resistant approaches. Then we determine the important features showing in which direction they are influencing the migration intention. This ML-based estimation accounts for features such as weather shocks captured by the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) for different timescales and various socioeconomic features/covariates. We find that (i) weather features improve the prediction performance although socioeconomic characteristics have more influence on migration intentions, (ii) country-specific model is necessary, and (iii) international move is influenced more by the longer timescales of SPEIs while general move (which includes internal move) by that of shorter timescales.

This paper deals with prediction of anopheles number, the main vector of malaria risk, using environmental and climate variables. The variables selection is based on an automatic machine learning method using regression trees, and random forests combined with stratified two levels cross validation. The minimum threshold of variables importance is accessed using the quadratic distance of variables importance while the optimal subset of selected variables is used to perform predictions. Finally the results revealed to be qualitatively better, at the selection, the prediction , and the CPU time point of view than those obtained by GLM-Lasso method.

We consider the problem of learning by demonstration from agents acting in unknown stochastic Markov environments or games. Our aim is to estimate agent preferences in order to construct improved policies for the same task that the agents are trying to solve. To do so, we extend previous probabilistic approaches for inverse reinforcement learning in known MDPs to the case of unknown dynamics or opponents. We do this by deriving two simplified probabilistic models of the demonstrator's policy and utility. For tractability, we use maximum a posteriori estimation rather than full Bayesian inference. Under a flat prior, this results in a convex optimisation problem. We find that the resulting algorithms are highly competitive against a variety of other methods for inverse reinforcement learning that do have knowledge of the dynamics.