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Conditional neural control variates for variance reduction in Bayesian inverse problems

Siahkoohi, Ali, Oh, Hyunwoo

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Bayesian inference for inverse problems involves computing expectations under posterior distributions -- e.g., posterior means, variances, or predictive quantities -- typically via Monte Carlo (MC) estimation. When the quantity of interest varies significantly under the posterior, accurate estimates demand many samples -- a cost often prohibitive for partial differential equation-constrained problems. To address this challenge, we introduce conditional neural control variates, a modular method that learns amortized control variates from joint model-data samples to reduce the variance of MC estimators. To scale to high-dimensional problems, we leverage Stein's identity to design an architecture based on an ensemble of hierarchical coupling layers with tractable Jacobian trace computation. Training requires: (i) samples from the joint distribution of unknown parameters and observed data; and (ii) the posterior score function, which can be computed from physics-based likelihood evaluations, neural operator surrogates, or learned generative models such as conditional normalizing flows. Once trained, the control variates generalize across observations without retraining. We validate our approach on stylized and partial differential equation-constrained Darcy flow inverse problems, demonstrating substantial variance reduction, even when the analytical score is replaced by a learned surrogate.


RobustFine-tuningofZero-shotModelsviaVariance Reduction

Neural Information Processing Systems

WhenoptimizedforOOD accuracy, the ensemble model exhibits a noticeable decline in ID accuracy, and vice versa. In contrast, we propose a sample-wise ensembling technique that can simultaneously attain the best ID and OOD accuracywithout the trade-offs.



Machine Learning Models Have a Supply Chain Problem

Meiklejohn, Sarah, Blauzvern, Hayden, Maruseac, Mihai, Schrock, Spencer, Simon, Laurent, Shumailov, Ilia

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Powerful machine learning (ML) models are now readily available online, which creates exciting possibilities for users who lack the deep technical expertise or substantial computing resources needed to develop them. On the other hand, this type of open ecosystem comes with many risks. In this paper, we argue that the current ecosystem for open ML models contains significant supply-chain risks, some of which have been exploited already in real attacks. These include an attacker replacing a model with something malicious (e.g., malware), or a model being trained using a vulnerable version of a framework or on restricted or poisoned data. We then explore how Sigstore, a solution designed to bring transparency to open-source software supply chains, can be used to bring transparency to open ML models, in terms of enabling model publishers to sign their models and prove properties about the datasets they use.


Morello: Compiling Fast Neural Networks with Dynamic Programming and Spatial Compression

Kaufman, Samuel J., Just, René, Bodik, Rastislav

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

High-throughput neural network inference requires coordinating many optimization decisions, including parallel tiling, microkernel selection, and data layout. The product of these decisions forms a search space of programs which is typically intractably large. Existing approaches (e.g., auto-schedulers) often address this problem by sampling this space heuristically. In contrast, we introduce a dynamic-programming-based approach to explore more of the search space by iteratively decomposing large program specifications into smaller specifications reachable from a set of rewrites, then composing a final program from each rewrite that minimizes an affine cost model. To reduce memory requirements, we employ a novel memoization table representation, which indexes specifications by coordinates in $Z_{\geq 0}$ and compresses identical, adjacent solutions. This approach can visit a much larger set of programs than prior work. To evaluate the approach, we developed Morello, a compiler which lowers specifications roughly equivalent to a few-node XLA computation graph to x86. Notably, we found that an affine cost model is sufficient to surface high-throughput programs. For example, Morello synthesized a collection of matrix multiplication benchmarks targeting a Zen 1 CPU, including a 1x2048x16384, bfloat16-to-float32 vector-matrix multiply, which was integrated into Google's gemma.cpp.